dan/california

The traitor who gave the Russians information showed his face on TV? Can we start a pool on his life expectancy? The forces in Mariupol have stood as bravely as any in human history.

I am willing to believe he will declare on Ukraine on May 9th. He really doesn't have a choice short of giving up if the current conscript class just gives their officers the finger and starts walking home. If he is so deluded he wants to declare war on NATO my bet is he finally has that "heart attack", and the new guy starts trying to walk this all back by blaming everything on Putin.

This will get the arms supply the rest of the way to wide bleeping open.

Victory has thousand fathers, defeat is an orphan. true for AT LEAST three thousand years. And further proof Putin is losing this war, the fence sitters have decided which way to jump.

Whatever they took in the Donbas today cost them well over a battle group. I don't think they have enough of them to pay this rate for very long.

Honestly, the Russians just should not even attempt, that is an army breaker. Never mind if even a little of the new 155 comes up with guided rounds. Let a company get across into the kill zone, kill the pontoon bridge with guided rounds, and repeat until they are all dead, or go away. I mean I hope they try it but....

That is a suicidal place to cross a river, even against an opponent that isn't nearly as well armed as the Ukrainians, Perfect places for the NLAW class missiles, perfect places for Javelins, perfect places for armor to hide and seek. and beautiful spots for mortars to completely hidden. Didn't someone say the Soviets try to push back against the Germans here in ~42 and got there heads handed to them?

Real economic support for Ukraine.

Now that Russia is desperately searching for parts through boot leg channels there is also a real chance to feed them things that fail in interesting way. It would be a shame if Iskanders just starting blowing up on the launch vehicle, or a they flew as far they could get towards Moscow, endless possibilities.

https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202204-operation-z-web.pdf There is NEW stuff in this, especially about Russian EW, military procurement, and details about the Kyiv campaign I have seen anywhere else. Worth your time. Edit They stacked stuff in those endless convoys heading towards Kyiv in the wrong order, and it COST them.

Russia was always going to make some gains with a HARD push Donbas. Ukraine seems to have bee quite successful in making those gains so expensive that that hard push actually accelerates the collapse of the the Russian army.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/04/07/us-army-initiates-plan-to-replace-stingers-with-next-gen-interceptor/ Found the article, army has been in the early stage for at least a year. Is hoping for test/demo launches 2023-2024. And delivery 2027. I am sure they are scrambling to see if they can move that up, since it looks like they will have to scramble fairly hard anyway to build more stingers. They are doing a LOT of work on drone defense, too. It seems like they get that the low altitude battle has changed completely.

I can't find the article, but they have had an active early stage development program for a while. They were originally looking at receiving the first new missiles ~2027. I am sure they are trying to figure out if it costs less to move that up, than it does to make an interim model stinger with an Iphone for its brains.

The post war debate about the utility of mass is going to be intense. Both "the Russians are utterly incompetent side", and the "this is a new era of ground warfare side" have a lot of supporting evidence to work with.

The Russians seem to have a fair bit of ability to hit things that aren't moving, bridges being the obvious and most problematic example. They seem to virtually no ability to strike actual trains or truck convoys while they are under way. Which is sort of 100% opposite the allied air campaign in France in 1944. Fighter bomber were hunting actual trains at will, but just didn't have the ability to drop bridges. It is an interesting contrast between the two eras. Thusly the Ukrainians need a well thought out system that to extent possible never presents large fixed targets. Have locomotives drop train cars in ones and twos and grab empties the same way. Try to get trucks thru thru the peak danger areas with the minimal concentration and stopped time. To the extent humanly possible just don't give the bad guys a target worth an SRBM, that sits still long enough for the Russians to close the loop on their disastrous command and control system. All of which is COMPLICATED but theoretically possible. Don't know what you do about the bridges short of Patriot systems parked at every one.

The minimum loss rate of a battle group a day is holding up.

Steve mentioned trenches not being lined with wood in an ideal way, this might be part of the reason.

On very well fertilized sunflowers...

And every day deeper into spring it hurts less in the short term. The Russians have no plan except venting PUTIN'S conniptions. Great word by the way...

It does, but since the Russians have made it ABSOLUTELY clear, that their plan is to shoot every man of vaguely military age, rape any woman or child the they feel like, and then turn the whole country into something worse than a gulag, the Ukrainians are pretty much going to fight to the last twelve year old. The Russians can quit and go home any time, they just need proper encouragement. Watching their #^%^%##hole buddies die in burning AFVs is an EXCELLENT encouragement. ALL of them dying in burning AFVs is ok, too.

So it becomes an almost purely attritional contest. How long can the Russians lose a battlegroup a day plus?

I read it, the short version is everybody took the Russians money. The only thing I regret is Putin rejecting my advice on Ukraine, and no I am not sorry, or giving the money back.

Ukr and or Nato intelligence seems to be even deeper inside Russian operations in Kherson than they are everywhere else.

In this case I think the stains burned away by the time it got done melting...

We are setting you up with nuclear submarines, which are THE crown jewels. I am fairly certain you can have the DU inserts and ammo if you ask. What the green orientated bits of your own political system thinks about it is a different question, and your own problem. My opinion is that the only thing worse than cleaning up after a tank battle you won, is being one of the carbonized stains being cleaned up when the other side wins.