dan/california

Edit: Still a slow grind, but the pace seems to be picking up a bit with Himars and other new equipment.

Great post!

Was that picture taken AFTER he died? Because it is by far the worst picture I have seen in one of these announcements. Fairly strong statement considering the average is bleeping awful.

Wouldn't most of the anti drone EW actually need to be in range of Caesar or PZH 2000 to be useful? Those are surely much cheaper. And we should certainly give the AFU a LOT more HIMARS and the missiles to shoot from them. If someone can put an EW homing drone together, or already has send Ukraine ALL of them and build a huge new factory to build more. What is expensive is this bleeping war going on and on. It is chewing the bleep out of both combatants and the entire world economy. Ukraine needs the support to end it a more or less total victory ASAP.

I am fairly certain those exist, and if they don't they would be much easier to turn out relatively quickly than a new loitering munition. Indeed I would think that the constellation of NATO aircraft of the Polish border, and the black sea track them continuously.

I am probably missing something. But it seems to me that more problematic EW has to emit like a huge navigation beacon to do anything. So just triangulate the emissions and keep sending Himars to those coordinates until they are smashed or too frightened to turn on. To repeat, what am I missing? EDIT: A nice radar homing loitering munition would be nice, and perhaps more efficient, but it doesn't seem necessary

Every Russian ship and Submarine in the Black sea has launched attacks against civilians for months. All of the officers of all of them should be on a very special list. That list should be actively pursued until the Sun burns out.

And all but taking over in Belarus let him start a 100 miles Kyiv, instead of 300 to 400 mlles from Kyiv. It made Putin's three day war plan look vaguely plausible.

Biden should make it vert clear, albeit quietly, that every "unexplained accidents" in the Western energy sector will be met with truly massive increases in aid to Ukraine. A brigade worth of Bradleys and Abrams level massive. Or a couple of squadrons of F-16s with top grade AAMs and guided bombs.

The Mandate of Heaven might have been maintained with well built irrigation systems and full granaries. But it was claimed at the point of a sword, not once but perhaps two dozen times. Every time the winner pointed to fact of his victory s proof of his own "Mandate." The current dynasty very much included. If Putin's three day coup/war/SMO had come off successfully it would have been exhibit A in his own mandate, and the history books. At least the ones a Russian school child was ever likely to see.

If Putin had a minimally capable son who was 30 or older he would have already had himself crowned as the first Czar of a new Dynasty. Or he would have been "discovered" to be a lost heir of the old one, with free beatings for anyone who dared to so much as blink at the announcement.

But Russia currently has at least as much potential for severe domestic discontent as it did in 1917. Putin is trying to fundamentally change the deal he offers the Russian people in the middle of a losing war. The old deal was pretty simple. There will be economic growth and stability. You will not dare to think about politics, and the FSB will not feel the need to think about you. The new deal is that you must think about Putin and his imperial dream all the time. You must work twice as hard for half as much, until next year, which will be worse. Oh and any male between 15 and 60 can be drafted at random through various back door schemes and sent to the front inn a losing war. Complainers get an instantaneous one way trip to Siberia. This would be a difficult shift for virtually any government in human history, much less the decrepit mafia state that is Putin's Russia.

Yes, 100% plausible. The entire Ukrainian strategy at this point is to substitute enormous amounts of GMLRS/precision and drones/ISR superiority for a functioning air force with air supremacy. It will be revolutionary if it works , since you are talking about getting 70% of the capability for about 5% of the cost.

Are the Russians going to keep shoving lower and lower quality troops into the meat grinder until the average quality of their whole force is so bad that it is subject to a cascading rout/mutiny/surrender. So the surrender of one battalion or the loss of Kherson or similar just results in the whole thing coming apart? The full 1917 scenario?

Also worth pointing out that satellites can probably track where these are installed to tenth of a meter. The Ukrainians might be able to work them like a set of practice targets.

Russian copium takes many forms. And it probably does protect against light splinters.

There is literally NO reason except laziness and stupidity not to get off fossil fuels as quickly as humanly possible. It would cause all of our enemies except China to go broke. It would keep the planet from cooking itself. And as not insignificant bonus you get a large improvement in public health due to less air pollution. The anti nuclear folks just need to be canceled and governments just need to get behind this thing and PUSH!

A saw a video that was claimed to be that column, or part of it. It was all supply trucks. Which would make some sense if ammo stores on the west side of the Dinipro have been completely wrecked by the Ukrainians. I would NOT want to be a driver in that convoy. No one can claim the Russians are rational at this point. But it might not make sense to send more actual forces if they can't move enough supplies to support them. But maybe the Russians really are too stupid to realize those bridges are vulnerable.

The Germans are really, MASSIVELY under rating the risks of losing here. They also seem to have zero imagination for the upside of winning.

And support for Ukraine must be redoubled, and redoubled again. If the Germans just can't get their heads out of the completely bleeped place they have stuck them the U.S. needs to start pulling Abrams and other vehicles out of storage in the desert and shipping those to National guard units. Because the Guards units gear needs to be on the way to Ukraine SOONEST.

Has there been a single GOOD sign for Russian OPSEC at any point in this war? They either don't understand the concept, or just can't be bothered.

And we appreciate it, a LOT!

And when the war ends we can go back to endless arguments about how to simulate it all with more data than we possibly know what to do with.

Working fine on chrome on a new chip mac for me. There may be an update cycle making its way across the internet.

I still think the easiest way to solve a great many problems is a Polish Ukrainian Confederation. Warsaw just sends Brussels a note that we are bigger now, and Moscow a little missive that says Article Five applies, try us. Us and our three brand new Abrams equipped brigades. They would like to show you how the Iraqi Republican Guard felt.