dan/california

Really hoping this is true!

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-interactive-summary-report ALL of Russias stuff more complicated than a basic 152mm shell uses Western components.

For JDAM you have be able to verify you are in a spot the munition can reach its target from. For a harm missile it is mostly just a radar warning receiver. And yes I am aware the details are complicated, but there are reasons the HARMs might have been one of the easier things to integrate.

If F-16s are already in country and not one photo has leaked it would be the greatest opsec victory in the history of man.

I think the Poles did a fair of work to be able to use NATO munitions on some of the legacy aircraft. Either those planes have been handed over, or the relevant tech has been transferred. Probably complete with Polish technicians to install it.

But if the bridgehead is compressed enough for Russian artillery on the other side to do any thing it also means Ukrainian guns can range the river and ALL the other Russian supply routes for that sector with normal 155 instead of the fancy rounds. I am strongly of the opinion that any segment of the Russian pocket that gets compressed this far will collapse almost immediately due zero usable supply routes. The whole area is flat as a pancake and there is no cover to speak of.

It sounds like at least one side is trying something.

Both of these problems are very real, but a a military falcon unit would tilt the cool meter so hard it broke. I think the, seriously non trivial, trick would be to teach the bird to drop/drag a weighted cord over the drone. This might actually be more doable to protect maximum value targets like the White House as opposed to a front line thing. I imagine the birds would not appreciate artillery. The great thing about the birds is you don't have to worry about them killing a random civilian two miles away with the spent rounds. I imagine the job of presidential falconer would be rather sought after.

I wouldn't recognize myself, I have been the same cartoon character for a LONG time. And you just know the drivers have said great and gone in search of vodka. The trucks may not move for a month, even if artillery doesn't find them.

I wouldn't recognize myself as anything other than the chicken hawk. It is a very old, very funny cartoon character for anyone who didn't grow up watching American TV.

This makes me more hopeful that the first we hear of other presents for the Russians will be the pictures of the craters.

Many accusations of dastardly, dapper hasn't come up once, ever.

It isn't clear to me that we can actually catch TSMC. But the economy of the entire planet is dependent on that one spot. I mean an earthquake would be a world shaking fiasco, pun intended. And we could cut the Chinese off if we had supply and Taiwan was a smoking ruin.

We need to put a Marine division on Taiwan. It needs to be done with highly dispersed basing and build the entire support structure on the assumption that it can rain Chinese missiles any time. An integral part of the Marine deployment should be a training center to get the Taiwanese up to speed. And the whole island needs to sink a foot or two under the weight of small to medium missiles waiting to ruin the PLA's day. and it has already passed but the new law to build more U.S. chip production needs to implemented with all deliberate speed. There needs to be a new law for dealing with nations that are hostile and untrustworthy, but too big to apply the current state sponsor of terrorism law too. The current law would require secondary sanctions on India and every third world nation that is buying Russian grain, oil, and fertilizer. That is simply impractical to do with Russia and China. What the law does need to do is make impossible the kind of elite capture that Londongrad represents to even be attempted. It should be illegal for any law firm, any lobbying firm, any bank, or any kind of advertising/public relations firm to do any business with Russia. Just make them AND THEIR MONEY absolutely persona non grata in elite circles. Do it to Russia and tell the Chinese to think real hard about if this where they want to go.

The most interesting thing I learned from the Russian article is that the French have a really well thought out bridging system. If, and it is a big if all those lovely and hydraulic and pneumatic systems actually work. The thing I don't understand is how the Russians plan to do ANYTHING on the west/north side of the Dnipro when Ukrainian PGMs are spelling bleep you down every bridge. Someone is very wrong about something.

This is too good to check, and if it is true implies the Russian pocket around Kherson is going to evaporate in the August sun.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/05/pentagon-china-calls-taiwan-00050175 The Chinese seem to want to make things worse...

Better drone direction of artillery excepted, this seems to be a level of adaptation the Ukrainians can live with. The better drone use is a problem.

Wait until they are in a critical spot and offer all of them $10,000 and Ukrainian citizenship to change sides. Oh, and all the pork and cabbage they want. They would turn around and take Moscow for that, more or less literally. Have south Korea send a plane load of spices and kim-chi, literally send the smell of it wafting across the front lines.

I realize there are reasons for NATO not to enter this war and destroy the Russian army in a weekend. But the the thought of the Russian Nats tears when literally not a single piece of equipment made it back over the border into Russia almost justifies taking the risk. And it really would be useful for even the nuttiest of them to Understand that not only is there army not in the major leagues, it is the last place team in single A. For our European friends that is the equivalent of being the worst "professional" team in Hungary or Serbia.

The only two explanations that fit. One is that the Russian military command, either in theater or in Moscow realizes that they have lost and are afraid to say so. Like they will be taken out and shot afraid, and are doing an insane hail mary on the off chance that it works. May be they think they are slightly less likely to have poor life outcomes if they try and fail. The other (less likely) idea is that they are faking this in the hopes of freezing the Ukrainians until mud season. I suppose they are praying a miracle will come along if they can just keep dancing. FWIW I have seen zero evidence that the Russians have the communication security or other requirements to fake anything. When admitting failure is really unpleasant people will try about anything I guess.

This needs to be called "Private Pavel Panics", followed by something unprintable about Colonel Kachura.

Ghirkin among others has repeatedly stated that RU aviation is what has halted previous Ukrainian attacks that were at real risk of breaking through. Do we think NASSM could cover a bubble big enough to let the Ukrainians effect a real breakthrough?

I keep reading several Ukrainian sources that say the U.S. has a bunch of the older towed M198 155mm howitzers parked in the desert somewhere. Does anyone know if this is true? Are they in useable condition? Does the Pentagon consider part of some war reserve plan and doesn't want to let them go? As with ten other issues this war has made clear that new factories need to be built, and what is is considered an adequate war reserve needs to be increased by a factor of ten. And we have to get the Ukrainians some anti drone help. It is just to bleeping painful to lose this war because a few hundred Russians learned to use an XBox controller.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/wf0pb7/fighters_of_the_1st_assault_battalion_of_the_azov/ The penalty for sleeping on guard duty is severe. But not perhaps as severe as it could have been.