dan/california

Every single prototype anti drone system needs to be on the Ukrainian front lines. It is THE thing that can move the needle the fastest. Teach teach the contractor reps some Ukrainian profanity, overpay them, and get these systems forward, TODAY. Edit: it is a massive indictment of the U.S. media ecosystem that this had to be published in a Czech publication, instead of very major U.S. outlet.

What he said...

I think most drone sorties end up more like this. But this still gravely damages the morale and exhaustion levels of the guys getting the run around.

Unfortunately he flunked succession planning...

Not at all, the current near best case outcome was in no way guaranteed. And yes I realize it is still awful, but we are WAY into the positive side of bell curve in terms of bell curve in terms of predictions on 2/23.

I was sure enough about the housing bust 2007-8 to talk my wife out of buying in Sacramento at the top of the market. But sadly not sure enough to short the banks like I meant it, still bummed. Although being right about the first part and not bankrupt is nice...

Trump signed something and drew down a lot of forces. Final withdrawal was under Biden. I suspect we would derail things for thirty pages trying to hash it out in more detail.

If even one attack in twenty actually kills a vehicle, or a soldier it is a huge success in the cold math of war, triply so when you consider the harassment value. That photoshop of the Chinese robot dog they stuffed into lycra is absolutely hilarious. The only thing better would be a spy subbing in a live rocket to really spice up the vaporware expo.

The proof that Biden new and believed is the Afghanistan exit. I have zero inside knowledge on this, but I am convinced knowing about Russias plans for Ukraine are why Biden got out of Afghanistan so abruptly. We just would not have been ale to respond the same way with the Taliban suddenly being flooded with Russian kit.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wpt21c/ukrainian_artillery_strike_on_russian_infantry/ Tank Round, IED, or really good artillery shooting? It could be a TRP? they were walking right down the middle of the road.

I admit I couldn't figure out what he was carrying. But I stopped giving the Russians credit when they didn't take the just kidding option after week one.

New Jomni, He seems to think the Ukrainians are the ones with most of the options.

Poland is gearing up to have the second or third strongest land army in the world. Triply so when you consider it will all be new top grade stuff that can hit what it aims at. Although I rather expect half of the first few graduating classes from that shiny new school to be from just a bit further east.

It is all vaporware anyway, production just stopped even for the stuff they were already making.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wq1tjy/multiple_russian_soldiers_are_hit_by_a_drone/ Nonexistent unit cohesion, none. Zero attempt to help casualties.

On a family friendly site this is referred to as a new pants moment. Six months of the hardest possible use may have done for Ukraines 2S7 fleet.

Well we live in a suburb of Tacoma, and they sent out the notice that they intended to make noise this evening. I have been half listening and haven't heard anything yet, but the kids and the dog are both awake so it isn't exactly quiet. I think I wiil be able to pull up tonight and last night side by side in the morning. There is one of the higher grade sensors not far outside the base. So it really might show. I am am wondering how many sensors there are in Ukraine to find though. I say that because in a country with no shortage of other problems I have never once read the headline "earthquake". Whereas around Seattle Mt Rainier sort of makes people pay attention. I am also having a crazed thought that with enough development money you could do totally passive counter-battery this way. But surely someone has already tried?

It almost certainly should work in theory, I found an interesting paper about telling the difference between quarry explosions and small earth quakes. I am assuming a quarry explosion is on a the same order as a bleep ton of Russian bombs, although quarry explosions might be coupled better since they are intentionally buried several tens of feet. The issue is that you have to have data from within a few hundred miles, and none of the relevant countries are accessible based on ten minutes of googling. Turkey has a list/map of its monitoring stations, but no online data. You can get all the data you could ever look at though from the west coast of the U.S., but anything less than a nuke isn't going to show above background from the far side of the world. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00024-022-02953-w https://earthquake.usgs.gov/monitoring/seismograms Edit: Conveniently joint base Lewis McCord is having a live fire exercise tonight. I will see if shows on the nearest publicly available reading. It will give decent indicator of whether it is worth digging for less accessible data.

Everything at that exhibit is vaporware. Shogui is praying to every god he can think of those Iranian drones are not. Because if they don't make a timely appearance Russia is will be lucky to be holding the 2/24 lines at Christmas.

No one would put two mines that close together.... ooopsie! No one will ever be able to harass steve about the AI again.

New York Times proving again that I should drop my subscription. Ukraine makes gains in Kherson, but Russia’s advantage holds. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/15/world/ukraine-russia-news-war

We might get an answer to the AA question soon...

A lot of the pace of the offensive will depend the current balance of Ukrainian air defense, and the Russian air force. If western help, Russian casualties, and the strike on the Saki air base have swung the balance enough? The Ukrainian offensive can try to go high tempo and much more metal intensive, and try cut the Kherson pocket in half, or even into thirds, in a day at some point. If the Ukrainians confidence is not high enough in their AA capability it will be fog eating snow all the way through. You need to copyright that phrase Capt. Another factor in Kherson that will matter if the resolution takes longer than I hope it will, water temperature. At the moment a Lot of Russians are lying to themselves that they can swim the Dnipro if it comes down to it. That delusion is going to get a lot harder to maintain when it gets cold. The Russians are all from places that have winter, they will understand that half a kilometer in COLD water is a very different thing.

I am still attached to my theory that next big military technology is going to be a VERY high tech Ghillie suit. Edit: I drop words like crazy when I try to type too fast...