dan/california

The POTUS is speaking in public, with the cameras running. The other side is in the land of the anonymous source. It isn't quite time to panic yet.

A truly lovely thought...

So FIRMS will start to show good data just about the time the ground id ready for Ukraine to go on the offensive?

Wondering about that too? Could it be as simple as them not working on cold wet ground?

Full NATO membership, Full EU membership, on the same day, at the same table, where Ukraine signs peace on 2/24 lines. That is how Zelensky can actually sell it politically. So Bundeskanzler, Germany wants to get back to making money? Sign right here... Edit: and the bits they don't get back are Russian ,full stop. None of this autonomous semi whatever B.S. It is Ukraine on one side of the line, Russia on the other, and an article 5 problem if they fire one single 152mm shell.

I wonder if the WSJ has disgruntled "source" that is pushing a pro Russian line for whatever reason? I mean Tucker Carlson works for the same boss.

They make thru winter with flying colors, fuel storage still half full, and THEN they want to surrender? And yes I got this from Desert Fox's post above,but I thought it was clearer to repost the original tweet.

ATACMS should have been there months ago. They should sure as bleep be there Monday morning.

Written ISW, and simply outstanding. Of course we expect that from them at this point. Extremely short version of a very long essay: Western support of Ukraine must be redoubled, and locked in for the long term so Ukraine can go on the offensive and WIN this bleeping thing. All the other options are degrees of horrible.

AFU may have decided Bakmuht is flat enough to let go of. Edit:crossposted with Beleg85

Russia is just to broke/cheap/corrupt to pay the gas and airframe wear to train them. It is even more of a Potemkin air force than it is an army. And it just makes me even more curious how much of their strategic rocket forces are functional. Because if the button gets pressed your dead, and if the button gets pressed and the rockets don't fly, your still dead, but you had a lot more fun first. In a system as screwed up as Russia's...

I think he is saying it take a Senate vote to let Ukraine into NATO. It is an amendment of the treaty that requires ratification. It was just done for Swedne and Finland. Well except by the bleeping Turks, abut that s a separate argument.

I suspect you edit no so bad stuff if your contributions here are any any indication. Also post links to said books or DM them to me.

Chrissl said what I was trying to say much better than I did, but I suspect we are missing something about the actual way doctrine and training translate to the real world that The_Capt knows in his bones.

Summary of G-20 meeting, a lot of diplomatic complications. The thing I still can't wrap my head around is India thinking it can fight/oppose China with Russian weapons even as Russia becomes a Chinese client state. How does that work? Also a lot of discontent with Ukraine sucking up all the oxygen. The list of countries that deserve to have their calls answered at the White House and Foggy Bottom needs to be adjusted.

This question may or may not make any sense. Will/would it be easier to move Western doctrine back towards DC just because the entire force has enough military education to understand that higher levels of command really are working with a vastly better picture of the battlefield? When all the platoon commanders understand that the battalion commander really does have something approaching a CM players understanding of what is going on? Which has historically never been anywhere close to true. That when the radio/datalink says to stop fifty meters before the next intersection there is probably a reason. I can see the hardest part being the need for two almost completely different training regimes and doctrines. One for when the battalion/brigade C4ISR is working like the contractor said it would, and one for when it isn't. If you tried to put this level of military incompetence in a bad novel, the editor would make you take it out. That is if editors were still a thing. Ukraine seems to be perfectly aware of what there choices are to me. They are rather convinced that Europe is the better one.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/?itid=mr_world_4 Russia's first, and perhaps worst failure. They based a really bad plan on epically awful information and wishful thinking.

He is just absurdly good at his job. We are just unbelievably lucky he was the guy when the balloon went up, and that Putins assassins didn't get him in the first forty eight hours.

And even Miley's warning wasn't pessimistic enough. They have gotten the body bags, and bleep all else.

They always look surprised when the neighboring country in question happens to be theirs. Please note I in no way accuse Ukraine of this. They have literally been dying to get into the E.U. and NATO for twenty years. Edit: I don't accuse Taiwan of it either, just to be clear, South Africa on the other hand... Second edit: It is great to hear from someone in Taiwan, welcome to the forum.

The lesson of the last year is that real military power actually counts for quite lot. Witness the parade in Kyiv Putin has spectacularly not had. China obliterated Hong Kong's Democracy because it could, it hasn't taken Taiwan because it CAN'T. Real military power sets the table for the rest of the discussion. All the diplomatic niceties really do flow from the balance of kinetic power available to each side.

It is a long, LONG way from a hand wavy, intentionally vague document, to an actual ceasefire, much less a longer term peace. Now I am not saying China couldn't try really put its weight behind a peace plan, but they haven't done it yet. Not real lines on a map, and disengagement protocols for two armies that are trying like bleep to kill each other. I am filing this as much ado about very little until China puts some real effort in. It has to state outright if it is pushing for current battle lines, 2/24 lines, or 2014 lines. That is just the first of a great many steps. At best this a first marker for when at least one side is motivated to talk. Edit: Cross posted with The_Capt, and as always, he said it better.

The Chinese and Wagner are both well along in the process of helping us with that. The Chinese have loaned out billions upon billion of dollars with their "Belt and Road Initiative". The countries that have borrowed it by and large don'y have the slightest hope of paying it back. They are going to find China's response to that little problem instructive. Wagner of course acts like Wagner as it props up bad governments all over Africa. I will leave the effect on Russia popularity long term to the readers imagination. We should all remember that playing CM with one player per side is 1000% DC. Most U.N. members are relatively small countries with at least one neighbor they don't necessarily get along with. There is some level of understanding about how bad it gets if might makes right without limit.

South Africa, in particular is asking to get a a lot less of it.

And yet Putin is burning through the 76th VDV, for gains that are not going to make a strategic difference in this war. As you just said the terrain makes a real breakout very unlikely. He will regret that by July, perhaps well before then. The massive push for Putin to have something to talk about on the one year anniversary has had huge cost, and not produced anything even Russian propagandists could sell as a big deal. The only thing units like the 76th VDV should be used for is training, and cadre for mobik formations. Putin is STILL looking for a one more push short cut to at least freeze the conflict. I don't think this is it.