dan/california

That may be true of a completely AI run system that finds the targets, checks for friendlies, prioritizes the targets, dispatches the kamikaze drones, updates the shared model of wider battlefield, the inventory of various munitions, and files a report. Although Ai seems to have made ~twenty years progress in eighteen months, so I wouldn't bet the kids college fund on that assumption. But in the absence of a true AI running the whole show everything I describe already exists in pieces somewhere. The terrain following is how cruise missiles worked before GPS. The image recognition guidance is used by the Javelin, and a slew of other weapons systems, and Palantir could run up a system to set up the final attack vector in 3d in afternoon, if it doesn't exist already. Edit: Cross posted with Steve.

It has been steadyish, but perhaps declining slowly. You can certainly get killed if you stand up and wave at the Russian's from a prominent spot on the shore. I do have an impression that whatever artillery ammo the Russians have to shoot on speculative harassment and interdiction is being directed towards the line of contact east from the river towards Adivka. It may be that Ukraine can hold their side of the river with such a low. troop density that even the Russians can figure out there is not much point.

Next year the kamikaze drone won't even need an operator. The recon drone can pass the gps of the target, and in a high jamming environment an terrain matching map automatically recorded by the recon drone. Any number of systems are already capable of pattern matching the picture of the basement opening for terminal guidance. Maybe the recon operator, or his assistant needs to pencil in the desired final attack vector in a 3d map view. There is no reason a two man team of drone operators couldn't dispatch an appropriately targeted kamikaze drone every thirty seconds in a target rich environment. And this is before someone wades into it with real AI.

The U.S. Army apparently still thinks manned recon helicopters are thing, and are prepared to proceed with the program. I have doubts...

I mean we COULD send Ukraine and a 150 ATACMS, stand up a new version of the Flying Tigers to get f-16s in the fight in a month, and win the bleeping war but it seems we would rather draw it out. If Russia hasn't figured it out in year as bad as the last one, what exactly are we waiting for, besides Putin dying of natural causes?

essentially the entire episode is by the authors of an NGO report on the Russian's use of torture, disappearances, and murder in the territories they took over, and it is even less pleasant than it sounds. Can't think of any commentary that wouldn't be grounds for a vacation, so i just won't make any.

The_Capt has been expecting these for a while... I think we need to keep VERY open minds about the place and potential of airpower, and even missile and drone, based power projection going forward. The air war in Ukraine has settled in a particular spot on a very large field of possibilities, because of what they brought to the fight at the beginning, and their apparently different learning curves since. Both lasers and autonomous systems have been notable by their absence from the Ukrainian battlefield. One or both of them might dominate the next war, whenever and wherever that is. The next time things get serious autonomous kamikaze drones could sweep the field of absolutely everything, including each other. The side that starts with more of them wins by attrition. Lasers could could sweep the sky of anything bigger than a sparrow, but the sparrows swarm like piranhas, and you can't get within three kilometers of the FEBA with anything bigger. The U.S. seems to think it has a 50 kilowatt laser with real battlefield utility. Leaving aside the fact that the Pentagon blows it occasionally, if you can mount it on Stryker, you can mount it on 737 or similar. What can an AWACS with an effective laser weapon do? Is this 50 kilowatt system the end of that technological thread, or just the beginning, and we are going to see power/efficiency doubling every couple of years for a decade. We just don't know, and the planners need to keep that in mind.

The Russians seem to be shooting at apartment buildings and kindergartens all over Ukraine, in addition to the odd military target. Fill in the Kraze comment of your choice... And then write your congressperson/minister of parliament AGAIN.

Just to poke at both sides of the coin a little bit. We can adjust the horsepower of the side we are sponsoring all we want, but if the other side breaks a crank and spreads its motor all over the track little tiny pieces they are still going to lose spectacularly. At the other end a lot of the Western support for Ukraine is squishy and impatient, I am just not sure the political side can tolerate this level of strategic patience. Doubly so since influence operations in Western countries still seem to one of the few areas of minimal Russian competence. Prigozhin's cool aid is disturbingly effective. It also can't be pointed out too often that an IFV with a 40mm grenade launcher, and a drone to observe the fire would speed up trench clearing by a LOT.

I would argue for a tactical repositioning, ideally one that inspired the enemy to occupy those exact spots.

Very thorough and well laid out article. Which we have come to expect from him of course.

The polecat and the beaver featured previously both need to be delivered to the Russian side of the line by drone.

Headline says it all, except the part about if NATO had started a year ago, they would be there now. And if they were there now, skittish White House staffers would not whispering all over Washington about how nervous they are about the spring offensive working out. Of course a hundred ATACMS would soothe those nerves nicely, and they could be there in days.

It is a memo from the future, it says if you don't have a solution for the drones, don't come to the war.

These are the same folks saying we can't possibly let Ukraine shoot DPICM at the murderous B$###^#^&&S who trying to kill every man one woman and child in the country. A fact they proved again TODAY. I will let this go just as soon as we ship the bleeping shells.

All true, but a daily HIMARs attack on Kerch bridge until it just fell down would be utterly impossible for Putin to spin.

Break the land bridge, and put the Kerch Bridge in HIMARS range. That is an unequivocal success, they can post video of using the bridge for target practice for weeks to get the point across.

We have seen five Hrims, ever, maybe. The Ukrainians need at least high double digits Hrims, ATACMS or similar to make the airfields in Crimea unlivable, and hit the rail system all the way back to the Kerch bridge. They have been telling us that since last July.

The Russians are desperate enough to be stripping gear off of the dead? Or they are forcing civilians/POWs to clear mines/booby traps at gunpoint?

A hundred ATACMS directed at the Crimean airfields would mean a LOT less concern about the Russian Air Force. Not doing that is on us.

And the Taiwan issue is sitting out there with potential to make everything even more fun, interesting times...

So the offensives big kick off is going to be enough ATACMS to obliterate every airfield and rail junction in Crimea?

The numbers/conditions are heavily dependent on how many people they are willing to publicly hang, or deliver to the Hague.

This is one of the most convincing not yet(s) in the history of mankind.