TheVulture

Looking at various reports of things happening in Russia and Russian-occupied territory this morning, it seems in the last 12 hours we've had: Video of Russian air defense shooting something down at Morozovsk which is claimed to have been a Ukrainian missile Explosions in occupied Berdiansk (again) Missile strike on Donetsk city Drone attack on Krasnodar (area of Russia closest to Crimea) FSB reports foiling an explosives-based attack on a security target in Gelendzhik, and a Ukrainian sympathiser has been arrested (close to Krasnodar) Definitely seems to be be a continuation of the pattern of increased 'things going bang' in Russian controlled areas, presumably as part of the shaping the offensive (as well as the Russian public mindset)

Maybe they are monitoring the agreed Ukrainian grain shipments through the Bosphorus, or just monitoring traffic in and out of the Black Sea to make sure Turkey isn't letting NATO countries slip military vessels in to the Black Sea. Or monitoring NATO drone and aviation traffic over the southern Black Sea that is being used to gather intel on Russian movements. After all, Russia would need to have contingency plans to try and counter the intelligence gathering flights NATO is running over the Black Sea in the event that NATO directly enters the shooting war, and so gathering data on what flights are happening, patterns etc. and trying to intercept or disrupt their communications would seems prudent.

Video of Russia air defense apparently shooting something down tonight at an air base in Morozovsk, Rostov oblast (about 120km inside Russia, east of Luhansk). Something went bang and left a trail of fire in the night sky at any rate https://t.me/rusbrief/120389

It's not like Sebia had S-300 or S-400 systems or the kind of comprehensive air defence network that Russia has either though. Serbia had a much weaker air defence system, width was further suppressed by NATO air superiority. Russia has neither of those problems, and I doubt Ukraine has the capability to carve out enough local superiority for slow moving A-10s to get in for strike missions.

Video of the 'drill' on kerch bridge: https://t.me/rian_ru/203550 Do drills normally involve a burning vehicle?

If the reported forces are broadly correct, it seems too large and well equipped to be a raid and too small to be a serious attempt to hold a significant piece of territory indefinitely, so the implication has to be that they want to hold it just to compel Russia to assemble enough combat power to evict them, and then get out before the counter punch lands.

Report on Telegram of (another) Russian Mi-8 helicopter down near Belgorod: https://t.me/bazabazon/17851 (I assume 'DRG' here is the Russian Volunteer Corps, from the context)

Brief aerial footage of the (Russian) Grayvoron border post in Belgorod Oblast looking rather the worse for wear: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/97387 Fire and explosions also reported in Zamostye, a few km north of Grayvoron: https://t.me/Tsaplienko/32273 Also reports of widespread shelling of multiple Russian villages in the area up to 10km or so away from the border: https://t.me/breakingmash/44210

If you were close (too close) perhaps - but different frequencies of sound travel at different speeds (dispersion), plus echoes and non-linear paths through the atmosphere smear everything out quite rapidly. Which is why you can hear the thunder from a single lightning strike several km away as a rumble that lasts several seconds, rather than the single sharp crack that was actually produced. So at any appreciable distance, I'd imagine that the sounds of both parts of a tandem warhead would be very much overlapping, unless they are 10+ seconds apart. I suppose that's possible for a bunker buster though.

The UA has been gaining ground in the hills north and south of Bakhmut, while Russia has continued making incremental gains in the low-lying urban areas. I've not seen anything suggesting that Russia has completely captured the town itself though, and given their record of overclaimimg success...

Tends to support Ukraine's claim to have shot down the hypersonic missiles rather than Russia's claim that they all hit their targets. If the missiles were successful and 'uninterceptable' (as per Putin's claim) then they wouldn't be suddenly looking for scapegoats to blame. Instead they seem to be taking the line "our missiles were actually intercepted, so we need to blame these scientists for either a) treasonously exaggerating the missile capabilities or b) treasonously sharing classified details at international conferences which enables the US to develop countermeasures".

Here's an article on recent diplomatic moves by the Philippines and the potential emergence of a Philippine - Taiwain - US - Australia (and possibly South Korea) bloc to try and contain China's attempts to gain military supremacy over the Yellow, East China and South China seas: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/shifts-in-the-western-pacific/

That's something I keep telling people. The PLA doesn't even have the equipment to pull off an invasion at the moment (Xi a few years ago challenged the armed forces to build the capability by 2027 to give them the realistic option of an invasion). But as the_capt has said many times re Ukraine, there is a difference between having the equipment and having the capability. Before Normandy, the allies had performed several other landings and raids on smaller scales which built up experience and an opportunity to fix problems that were discovered in their doctrine and practice. And also had pretty extensive experience of the logistics of supplying an overseas expeditionary force engaged in intense combat. China has none of that experience, and you don't go from never having done it before to invading Taiwan's mainland as your first foray into the world of amphibious invasion. They'd have to have a few 'trial run' raids or attempts to capture smaller garrisoned islands, as well as extensive exercises in home territory that would probably be hard to hide from satellite observation. Once we start seeing signs like that, we maybe can say that China is within a year of having a meaningful invasion force re Taiwan. Plus, nothing can really give them any experience in what is needed to maintain logistic lines across the strait of Taiwan in the face of opposition from the US Navy. It's a huge challenge.

Depends on your definitions I guess. June 21st is the longest day of the year, Walsingham known as midsummer's day. Some people consider it the start of summer. Some people consider June 1st as the start of summer. Australians have some crazy ideas about when summer starts Of course any decision about where to draw the exact dividing line between seasons is completely arbitrary since the conceptn of seasons is vague, subjective and climate dependent.

BBC reporting Russian defence ministry claims - one to file with a pinch of salt I think. Suddenly Russian air defences are able to intercept everything. I think this is on a par with Russia claiming to have shot down the entire Ukrainian air force twice over already.

Excellently informative overview of the Bakhmut situation - thanks Grigb

Meanwhile the Supreme Election Council is reporting only 69% of the votes are counted so far (as of 10 minutes ago): (from BBC)

From the BBC, Russia doing Russia things: Ukrainian act's home city attacked by Russia just before performance - reports Vitaliy Shevchenko BBC Monitoring Russia attacked the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil as the Ukrainian Eurovision entry Tvorchi - who hail from the city - were about to take to the stage in Liverpool, reports say. Ternopil regional state administration head Volodymyr Trush says two civilians have been injured and warehouses belonging to commercial companies and a religious organisation were hit. Tvorchi said on Instagram they read reports of their city being attacked 10 minutes before taking to the stage.

Another missile strike in Luhanskaccording to https://t.me/novosti_donbass24/47074

There was an Mi-8 (not sure I'm remembering correctly) that crashed in Crimea yesterday killing both crew. As a one off, not massively significant. And possibly a coincidence. But also possibly a shoot-down rather than a crash and part of an increased anti-air operation for the anticipated offensive. EDIT Just checked and it was an Mi-28 - the one Haiduk has given more details on below.

... and also represent the distance its taken Russia 9 or more months to advance through. While Bakhmut isn't objectively important, it would be nice to see a repeat of Izium where months of Russia's slow, hard-won gains at huge cost are rolled back in days to Ukraine.

We should have gone with a US naming convention and called it the M1. Informally known as "Bloody Large Ordnance to Shoot at Targets Using Firecontrol of Unimaginable Precision", aka BLO-STUF-UP

Agreed, although the argument could be made that the apparent large increase in UKR artillery is an operational factor that contributed to this. But yeah, the increased artillery is part of the softening up of various points along the front before the offensive kicks off, and this is just a tactical level example where the Ukrainians were able to exploit that softening to regain some ground when the Russians panicked.

Interesting GPF article on Russia's economy through the lens of sanctions and the difficulties in its attempts to use BRICS and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) to create alternative blocs outside of US influence: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/can-russia-gang-up-on-the-west/ (although I think the link might be paywalled)

BBC are reporting as 'breaking news': Leader of Russia's Wagner Group threatens to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday in row over ammunition supplies https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008 I dint know if that is just the same as in yesterday's "pile of bodies" video (not watched it) or is a new escalation in internal politics in time for victory day