Eddy
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Posts
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Joined
Posts posted by Eddy
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1 minute ago, dan/california said:
Biden has somewhere between 2 and five billion in remaining presidential drawdown authority. Think of it as the final reserve of approved aid. Clearly he felt he had to use some of it
According to The Guardian/Reuters it's from cost savings in some contracts.
White House announces $300m stopgap military aid package for Ukraine | US military | The Guardian
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11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Not exactly "cut", but definitely a latent and growing threat.
Instead of Russia cutting off UKR grain corridor UKR could start sinking RUS/proxy ships carrying stolen grain from Azov/Crimean ports.
Wouldn't that be a turning of the worm?
This article from H I Sutton is about two ships that had previously carried S300s back from Syria turning back from entering the Black Sea to go the long way round via the Baltic. Although not to do with grain exports per se, it does indicate Russian reluctance to carry presumably sensitive stuff through the Black Sea for fear of Ukrainian USV attack.
Vital Russian Supply Lines In Black Sea Cut By Ukrainian Drones - Naval News
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General Zaluzhnyi's sabbatical was short lived. Got himself a nice easy gig
Valerii Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine appoints ex-army chief as UK ambassador - BBC News
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33 minutes ago, squatter said:
Genuine question: why is RUS artillery more vulnerable supporting Kryki than any other sector of the front?
If a SPG is firing 40km from the front, what makes one 40kms more dangerous than the next?
In my limited understanding, the terrain on the right bank (Kherson city bank) has a higher elevation than the left bank which, I think, results in an advantage for the Ukrainian arty firing from there (on top of the logistical reasons outlined by Steve).
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18 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:
Fellow forum readers, you only have one life (probably). Do not waste any of it reading this absolute bollocks.. I will summarise:
Premises:
- A minister went to HMS Clyde on a super secret mission, taking a reporter with him!
- The UK has a submarine called HMS Ambush that the minister visited
- The submarine had a tarp on it
- The UK has trained underwater bomb disposal divers
- Liz Truss said something
Conclusion: The UK blew up Nord Stream.
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https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3klmt52fyau2i
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️Czech President Petr Pavel revealed Munich that the Czech Republic has discovered 800.000 (!) shells for delivery to Ukraine, consisting of 500.000 155-mm caliber shells and 300.000 122-mm caliber shells.
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2024/02/17/7179875/
Apparently, the Czechs have persuaded various countries to sell 155 shells. Someone just needs to pony up the money
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30 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
I was aware that the UK was broke by the end of the war.
UK was just about broke by mid '41. Forecasting at the time was that we would be broke sometime around Autumn '41. We ordered massive amounts of military equipment from the US, on top of the usual imports like oil, food etc, and then took on the French orders as well all prior to lend-lease. Lend-lease itself came in, from memory , March 41.
The debt that was owed, and paid back, was from early war, prior to lend-lease starting. A big war is just about the most expensive endeavour a country can undertake.
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18 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Again, the war is a piece of domestic policy as much as it is foreign policy
Timothy Snyder described Stalin's Soviet Union in Bloodlands like this
QuoteIts [the Soviet Union's] foreign policy was always domestic policy, and its domestic policy was always foreign policy (pp74)
It struck me at the time of reading that described Putin's Russia just as well as Stalin's Soviet Union
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17 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:
Article can be found here => The F-16 exceeded the expectations of Ukrainian pilots during the exercise. Interview with the pilot of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Phantom (holosameryky.com)
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Democracy is wasted on some people.
Anyway, thanks for the reply and apols for shooting down the US politics rabbit hole
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What a mess. Thanks for explaining.
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38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
what's good for the country vs. what's good for their populist base
Quick, dumb, question from a non-American - what pressures does a Republican Member of Congress face if they represent a safe Republican district, where they are almost guaranteed to be re-elected. Is it because they may face a primary from another Republican and get de-selected as the Republican candidate? Or is it party management within Congress? (Not taking sides here, same question applies to Democrat members). Basically, why do they feel the need to listen to their populist base?
In the UK, MPs are relatively rarely de-selected by their local constituency party other than when they've done something dodgy. The pressure to vote one way or the other mainly comes from party management within the House of Commons, by whipping, threats to careers, promises of jobs in Government etc.
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10 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
which I don't know how to link directly,
Right click on the time at the top left of the post and choose copy link
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Perun did a recent video on recruitment which is a perhaps more detailed look at
manpowerrecruitment
Here is the first part of a summary
QuoteIn the YouTube video "How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower," the speaker discusses the global challenge of finding and retaining personnel for militaries, with a focus on demographic factors, historic examples, and potential solutions. The speaker emphasizes that military organizations around the world are facing recruitment challenges due to aging populations, low birth rates, and social and economic factors. Historical examples, like the Spartans and the Swedish allotment system, illustrate the importance of sustainable recruitment strategies. Modern militaries, such as the US, UK, Japan, and South Korea, also face demographic struggles, with some facing a significant manpower deficit in the coming decades. The speaker proposes solutions, including improved recruitment practices, use of foreign manpower, and technology to address these challenges. The discussion also covers the significance of eligibility and willingness to serve, as well as the impact of societal perception, competition from the civilian job market, and geography on military recruitment. Throughout the video, the speaker highlights the importance of investigating various drivers and limitations of military manpower to build effective military forces
Summary is generated using this site => summarize.tech: AI-powered video summaries
Just pop in the YouTube URL and a few seconds later a summary is generated. Saves a lot of time working out whether something is worth watching or not. Or just getting the gist of a video.
Edited for inclusion!
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27 minutes ago, mosuri said:
This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885
Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ...
Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good.
At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ...
On top of that this happened => Russian Lukoil Refinery Incident Has Moscow Considering Gasoline Export Ban | OilPrice.com. Production of petrol has been halted at one of the biggest refineries and the incident happened on Friday, 12th Jan.
QuoteThe NORSI refinery in Nizhny Novgorod is one of the biggest oil refineries in the country, and Monday’s unspecified incident is the third such incident since the beginning of the New Year. Stoppages affected thousands of tons per day in two separate incidents in the first week of January, according to Reuters.
and
Quote"The breakdown is serious... There will be a reduction in production of AI-95, AI-98 (gasoline grades) this month," Reuters cited one source as saying.
They only just re-started gasoline exports in mid-November and now it looks like they may have to stop them again. UATV on YouTube said it was because something (a Catalyst/Catalyser/Cata-something - I have no idea) broke and needs Western parts to fix. Dunno if the cause is true (not sure how reputable UATV is), but I trust Reuters that production has stopped.
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22 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I would very strongly suggest reading up on the February insurrection in Paris of 1934 or Troublesome Young Men by Lynn Olson just for a quick starter. Britain was ruled by appeasers who frankly admired the fascists for their anti-Bolshevism and that was pretty universally true of the right in France as well.
In other news, the view of this war from the other side isn't particularly rosy either:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/shocking-reality-of-ukraine-blowback-hammers-putin-at-home
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-unsustainable-spending-spree
Thanks Bill for posting the Foreign Affairs article. As suspected all is not well in the Russian economy. I actually think the situation is worse than is outlined in the article, especially concerning Russian income from oil and gas. On that note, it looks like the Saudis may have thrown in the towel on maintaining the oil price:
Oil drops sharply as Saudi price cuts overshadow Middle East tensions (ft.com)
If you're unable to read the article (I can never work out the FTs free to read policy) the Saudis are no longer cutting oil production but instead are looking to maintain there own market share by dropping the price of the oil they produce. As the article headline states, this has already driven down oil prices and will continue to do so. Which for the purposes of this thread means less money for Russia.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
Seems that issue with Russian oil tankers off India went further south.
Russian oil tankers are turning away from India amid disagreements over payment.
The tankers had been hovering near the shores of India and Sri Lanka for about a month.
India is paying for Russian oil in UAE currency, but one major supplier has been unable to accept payment.
Russian oil ships drifting near India's shores have begun to turn away amid unresolved payment disputes between the two countries.
According to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, five oil tankers carrying Sokol oil, which have been idling close to India and Sri Lanka for about a month, are now headed eastward toward the Malacca Straight.
Another Russian ship — the NS Century — is still drifting near the shores of Sri Lanka. The tanker has been idling for over a month as Indian officials mull over whether to let the ship unload its cargo, Bloomberg previously reported.
The turnaround comes as Indian refiners are paying for oil with Russia in dirhams, the currency of the United Arab Emirates, people familiar with the matter told Reuters last week. But a unit of Rosneft, one of Russia's state-run oil giants, hasn't been able to open a bank account in the UAE, meaning it's unable to accept payment, sources added.
As of October, India had at least seven oil shipments from Russia that hadn't been paid, Reuters originally reported.
India is also under pressure to remain on good terms with the US, which sanctioned the NS Century late in 2023 for trading oil with Russia above the $60 per barrel price cap. Those restrictions are part of the West's attempt to ramp up pressure on Russia's energy revenue that it is using to fund its war against Ukraine.
India has become one of Russia's largest oil customers since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Russia now exports nearly all of its oil to China and India, Russia's deputy prime minister said last week – though shipments to India have recently stalled on payment issues. Russian oil exports in India cratered in December, with Indian refiners receiving no Sokol crude that month at all, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.
More on this here =>
Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions
2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports
Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important.
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43 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Rotterdam was a contested city
I did not know German troops were in Rotterdam at the time, so thanks for that
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10 minutes ago, Butschi said:
when has bombing civilians ever worked out the way it was rationalized by those who did it?
Rotterdam?
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19 minutes ago, billbindc said:
In the still quite unlikely event of a total Russian victory in Ukraine, Moldova certainly gets absorbed and Russia starts putting pressure on the Baltic states immediately. Would it go beyond that? Not likely...but not far from a 10% chance it could.
Seeing as though we are playing fantasy fleets (not you, others), could it not be Hungary and then Austria after Moldova, rather than the Baltics. After all Hungary is, erm, less robustly anti-Russian. and Austria is not in NATO. I mean if I was a delusional, socio-pathetic, fantasist autocrat that's maybe what I'd be be thinking. I'm not btw. Well at least not an autocrat.
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34 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Yeah, I just wanted to write about drones but you are right about Shaheds.
There are two crucial questions here that are ongoing:
1. What is actual Russian industrail capacity (yeah, I know, rhetorical as for now)
2. What about military targets of newest attack. There are true barbarians sitting at Kremlin, but I am pretty sure they didn't mount this attack to target civilian targets specifically only. Since some of big missiles come through, it is likely Ukraine military did suffered some losses today.
1. Don't know although almost certain it's not zero
2. Don't know. Maybe the Ukrainian lads can help
Also this article ( Russia Launches Biggest Long-Range Attack Since Start Of War (thedrive.com) ) makes the point that
QuoteSomewhat surprisingly, the raid didn’t appear to involve any ship- or submarine-launched Kalibr cruise missiles, with Russian long-range bombers bearing the brunt of the operation.
What, if anything, does that signify? Saving them up for another day, difficulty producing them or delivery aircraft being used for something else?
Answer: Don't know
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47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
If anybody likes statistics:
I do actually. Thanks for posting this. Good to actually get some numbers.
Very roughly because the chart is actually quite hard to read and the dates don't precisely match but:
1. 11/09/22 -> 29/12/2022 => 719 missiles fired, 452 intercepted, interception percentage = ~62%
2. 06/09/23 -> 29/12/2023 => 301 missiles fired, 218 intercepted, interception percentage = ~72%
So a clear reduction in missiles fired (42% of last years number)and an increase in the interception percentage over very nearly the same period of time.
NB: Chart does not include Shaheds
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I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Am I right in thinking that an normal majority (i.e. not 2/3rds) is needed for a discharge petition and all that a discharge petition means is that the Bill goes before congress? And then it needs another normal majority to be passed? Also does the Senate need to vote on it again?
Just trying to get my head around what the Speaker can do to put the kibosh on it.