Just my two cents :
I tried replaying the AAR exctly as you described it, with the real game on +2 setting.
Up untill now I can replay it perfectly. I'm preparing for sea-lion right now...
Only a few small differences :
+ a corps took Copenhagen, instead of an army.
+ the thirth U-boat survivied the passage south, by going straight through the middle of Canada and the UK.
- the UK is defended by 6 (six) planes ! 2 UK-bomber, 3 UK-fighters and a french fighter (free units on). This will probably make it impossible to precooed with sea-lion :-(