The_Capt

Well we can’t and probably won’t in our lifetimes. The “truth” is a floating point of agreement (are disagreement) among humans. We are essentially a species with brains big enough to invent the big beautiful fictions. We believe in them so hard that they may as well be true because they create conative impulse. I don’t believe in God but Holy Wars are still going to happen. As to the weird string of political conspiracies (John Kettler is that you?). In my experience in government, conspiracies are the rare exception - and they usually get caught out…that is how we know about them. Governments leak like sburke after a few beers on a good day. Most TS stuff is over classified and sitting on 00’s era desktops. The government can barely get above board things done let alone wage an effective mid/dis information campaign against its people. The governments that can have to spend a ridiculous amount of time and energy, over a long period of time, to even get close. Russia tries very hard but we know there are holes in the fence. Hell even NK is not fully able to fully insulate its population from outside info. So while people like you are digging bunkers and fitting for aluminum hats, the reality is that governments are big slow moving bureaucracies good at only one thing…protecting the bureaucracy. Beyond that I am not sure what Neo/Matrix thing you are really talking about. The war? The causes of the war? The progress of the war? We will never really know the truth about any of it in some universal truth because no such human truth exists outside of science. How do I know gravity works like they tell me? Well go jump off a building. As to the rest it is best guesses and close enough. We can see what we can see. What is really weird is that the Information Age should make it impossible to lie. One can quickly verify a lie in the ocean of information out there…that was the theory. But what did we do with that ocean of info? We saw more lies! We linked patterns that are not there. Are you being lied to…definitely. And what should bake you noodle is that because you are a human being the front and center culprit in those lies are not XYZ…it is you, to yourself. We lie to ourselves all the time. We filter, bias, ignore, reject and spin every time you look in the mirror. We lie to ourselves about everything all the time. Welcome to humanity.

Steve got baited into it this time. I am waiting for him to yell at everyone first. I don't think they can legally lock up this thread; it has a BFC board seat now.

Terror groups often operate on some pretty vague or non-linear logic. The fundamentalists are operating largely on faith. That [blank] = God in their minds, so it is pretty hard to see a logical design at times. Very often the “goal” of an attack is any reaction with the hope that it will lead to further opportunities they can jump on. This is really Darwinian warfare - we keep going, and failing, until the opponent makes a mistake we can then evolve into. Broader goals are often very vague and faith based: Allah will give us a Caliphate if we kill enough of them. The actual mechanics of how that Caliphate may actually come into existence are extremely blurry. Hamas was a bit different. Their goals were very likely an Israeli overreaction which would lead to its firm isolation within the region (any talks of Israeli - Saudi rapprochement are dead) with a window for possible widening of the conflict - why the Palestinians keep hoping the rest of the Arab world will ever give a f#ck is beyond me. The opportunity for global isolation, which is effectively occurring, was likely a stretch goal, if they thought of it at all. So behind killing and taking Israeli hostages, which makes the troops feel good, the goal of the Hamas attacks was the reaction, which could then be exploited for political gains. This is the dilemma terrorism projects onto the state and why we label it “asymmetric”. It forces the state to react in order to re-establish certainty, but it can easily do too little or too much. In fact it will very likely do either of those for segments of any population. So the state is thrust into “best of bad” choice sets. This is always good news for a terror group as it opens up the door to opportunity. This is why terrorism would never work within a zombie horde. Zombies can’t get scared and never react outside of “more brains!” A terror attack on zombies will never get a reaction (beyond “more brains”) so it offers little opportunity options space.

This is an excellent analogy.

I try not to get pulled into the ML/AI debate, which can get pretty heated. It is all non-human processing to me. I heard John Arquilla express the same Endpoint scenario - AI becomes so accurate that we do not need to actually conduct the war.

So this is where “AI hype” has led us. Note: this is using the broadest definition of AI. Many would simply call it non-human processing power. The combination of ISR, communication and precision has been the driver of this current “tactical crisis” - which has resulted in operational stalemate, strategic/political anxiety and industrial strain. What I do not know is how deep this will go. Can it be solved in this war? Or is this enduring new reality? My best guess is that more weaponized AI in the form of a forward unmanned envelop is the answer, but that is not proven. We need to really see proof that “mass precision beats everything”.

The fact that the US Military has had multiple expensive failures is not really news. They (and to a lesser extent all western nations) lean towards very large centralized “God Projects” that aim to solve a lot of very big problems all at once. Invariably the systems fail to account for somethings and result in failures. For example, the article never outlines how the IDF AI failed - was it the AI, whoever programmed the AI or who was monitoring the AI reporting? The article appears to be cherry picking high profile failures as “wasted money” as opposed to really outlining where AI in military application stands. Big military, like big government is an easy target for these failures. Of course when the military stops taking risks and tries to play it safe, opponents then cry “Luddite” and “risk adverse” - damned if they do..etc. Regardless, the battlefield in Ukraine is not only highly charged with cheap AI/forward processing in all of those FPVs - it is illuminated by AI empowered C4ISR, and it is becoming clear that it is having a significant effect. We see evidence of that effect almost daily in the “dig, disperse or run” dynamic that has emerged in this war. That all said, AI is here to stay. I suspect that cheap and many lower per level AI creating precision is a major way ahead. Interconnected AI empowered C4ISR backbones have been proven as decisive in linking target to shooters. When combined with AI empowered precision and C4 ISR we get a war where a nation that was military spending 1/10 of the nation that attacked it, stopped that attacker cold in their tracks, pushed them back and continues to hold them back. We are way past “hype”, the concept has been proven. Now we play scramble to try and figure out just how far this goes- is it just a flash, or a major shift. AI for predictive analytics, especially in the human space, is likely still over the next hill. AI that can assist in processing Petabytes of data and distilling them into targeting info; guide an explosive onto a target with 80-90% Pk rates, and; support kill chains/webs to a point that conventional mass concepts break - is already upon us. I have been hearing the “What RMA? For a long time now. The reality is that we have been in one since the late 80s. We are now just seeing major shifts that impact the fabric of warfare emerge. All those “failures” - and there were many- led directly to what we are seeing unfold on the ground in Ukraine. AI on the battlefield is hype…until isn’t, and becomes reality.

The US definition maybe. There is no universally accepted definition of terrorism. Illegal violence designed to induce “terror” in order to accomplish political ends, is not that far off. But just about every nation has its own version. I think we are asking: what does ISIS-K get out of this? Demonstration of an uncertainty. That uncertainty drives people in different directions. For some will push them towards the state to try and regain certainty. Others will see the hope in that uncertainty and support the sponsor of the terror action. A whole lot of terrorism is really just nasty theatre. Terrorism is a mechanism of a strategy of Intimidation and/or Subversion (but the Socialist Revolutionaries pre-1917 came damn close to pulling off Exhaustion.) It can be on the roadmap towards revolution and symmetric warfare, or it can simply be a bargaining position until enfranchisement is re-opened in a political process (see: IRA). And sometimes @ssholes just want stuff to burn. The trouble with ISIS has been that they are off the map with respect to nature of warfare. They are not political (or at least not enough). They are supernatural - God is at the wheel. How does one negotiate with that? The good news is that they are not homogeneous and have a lot of pragmatism in their leadership - despite the press. But at their heart, the narrative is pretty hard to deal with from a negotiation point of view. So in the end we cannot discount that ISIS-K is getting the good graces of God Almighty in all this and in doing His will, He will get their backs and give them a pure and holy Caliphate. A state where they won’t be sucking hind tit but driving the Rules Based International Order. So what? Well normally the game is to map, infiltrate and erode, while doing enough high profile smack jobs to make the news and keep the home front happy. I suspect Russia has a bigger problem than that on its hands. And we are less and less likely to want to help them out, at least publicly.

During the Cold War every terror group had some sort of affiliated, at differing ranges of course. Two can play at this game really..and they often did. Terrorism during the Cold War had the following strategic plays between the powers: - Blame Game - accuse the other team of supporting terrorism - Excuse Abuse - kinda what Russia is trying to play now..use attack or threat as a reason for X. - Claymore - keep pointed away from me and at them - Enemy of my enemy - weird one night stands - Intelligence collection - eyes and ears in strange nooks and crannies - Proxy foxy insurgency - rashes and sores in countries of opposing interest. Sometime they even went all the way if conditions were right. - Money! Yup sometimes they just made money together - Golden Oldies - subversive warfare, active measures and general f#ckery And we are headed right back to it…but now with Internet! The good news is that groups that got too out of control got clipped by both sides, which led to another play - Weird Buddy Roadtrip Comedy. This was when the superpowers actually cooperated to take out really crazy.

This is so frankly bafflingly short sighted and stupid…but of course it is Putin, the same strategist that came up with a quick invasion of Ukraine. US Intelligence - a nation whose weapons, ammo and data are actively killing Russian citizens - actually handed off actionable intel on this attack before it happened. What does this say? Well first off, US Intelligence has penetrated ISIS-K and was willing to risk assets in order to stop a terror attack…even against Russia. This demonstrates that the US was still willing to prioritize terrorism over its current beef with Russia, and was willing to take significant risks in doing so. Russia’s grand plan was to 1) ignore the intelligence, and then 2) poop all over the sponsor of said intel. The reality is that Russia’s pants are down in all this and its @ss is showing. The Stans are clearly hot and bothered at some level and ISIS-K is exploiting that. This is the tip of a much larger issue. So Putin’s grand plan is to burn any cooperation with the US…who are trying and solve his own problem. And then wire some ridonculous narrative about Ukrainian NAZIs now in league with Islamic extremism, all backed by the CIA. I am pretty sure those in Russia soft on this whole thing are not suddenly going to be galvanized by a cloudwork that Saddam’s ministry of propaganda could have done better on a cold start Tuesday. Putins is not a mastermind, he is plate spinning. At this point the world’s second largest nuclear power is being held together like a bad I Love Lucy skit. And no one even bother to try and pull the “poor westerner…you simply do not understand the Russian mindset” card…this was about as dumb a damage control play as could have been made. And no mystical Russian voodoo/goat hypnosis is going to change that.

This is basically at the point that anyone in Russia who actually believes this is going to believe whatever the Kremlin says anyway. The credibility of this sounds so hollow that I will be surprised if it shifts actual Russian sentiment in any real way. Further, this has risk of blowing up in Putin’s face: after two years of “victory” by the Russian army, Ukraine can now string together a ISIS-K/Tajik plot for a terror attack in Moscow? And worse, Russian intelligence and security failed to pick this threat up when it was coming out of a country they currently have in a choke hold?

I wouldn’t look much farther than - guys look close enough, beat confession and quickly close cases so Russian security does not look totally useless. The operators on this sort of mission are normally martyrs-in-waiting. They are not the best-of-the-best, quite the opposite, but they are hard believers and know they are very likely going to die. Being “contracted two weeks out” does not track at all for these sorts of attacks (see Bataclan etc). Small cells of radicalized locals or people who travelled to Moscow under the radar. So the confusion is not an IO/Psy-Op, it is just normal and very real confusion. Whether these guys actually did it will remain a question. But the whole thing was clearly an old school ISIL terror attack.

Wildly sending everything, all at once, would likely make things worse. Last thing UA needs are more diverse fleets that don’t have a logistics backbone. Heavy metal has had limited utility so send mountains of that - all taking up lane meters and weight, is counter productive. Ammo, definitely. Spare parts and key pieces of equipment. AD and anything that contributes to denial is a good start. The reality is that the UA could not absorb “all the guns”, so we need a well thought out and synchronized schedule that support Ukraine for the war they are in, and not the one we want them to be in. Most importantly, and we can manage risk almost everywhere else, is C4ISR support. Thankfully we do not have reports of the US/West walking back on the most important resource in this war…data. They do that to the point Russia can achieve targeting superiority and we are in serious trouble. This war is proving, repeatedly, that it is far better to know exactly where an opponent is at a given moment in space and time so that a single precision weapon can engage and kill than to try and sustain massive weights. I think this FPV production scale up is the right way to go. Mass precision beats everything.

Nothing wrong with these. Look pretty robust and well laid out. I assume well sighted. I think Russia is going to find out that minefields and trenches work both ways.

Actually China has been kinda standoffish on this whole thing. They talk “infinite friendship” but then back off on banking to avoid crossing the US too deeply. They are likely sending tech and even weapons but nowhere near levels they could. And they are taking Russia to the cleaners on oil and gas…with friends like these…. I think China wants a protracted conflict because it puts Russia in a very poor bargaining position. But at the same time they do not want Russia to collapse, or win really. As to China pouring arms and ammo into Russia…well they haven’t yet. Not sure if they see it really in their interest to bail Russia out. They want a weak and vulnerable Russia, but not a complete dumpster fire they have to deal with.

Looks like the four they captured (and beat the hell out of) are from Tajikistan. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/four-men-charged-in-moscow-attack-showing-signs-of-beatings-at-hearing-court-says-two-accept-guilt-1.6820048 Wondering if this is a regional fracture point being exploited, right after the Russian election.

He is referring to the fact that Steve already shut this conspiracy nonsense down. Keep pitching it and you will likely be sent on break. Basically until you have credible proof - and so far all we have is one bleached blonde douchebag with an iPhone music video against a blank wall - you might want avoid speculation of this sort as it really is starting to look like the ghosts of John Kettler.

I really don’t see that stopping an FPV with an RPG round strapped to it coming in at 80kph. And it definitely won’t do a damned thing against this little monster: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214914714000348

Dear Gawd, please tell me we are talking about this:

Have said it before, oversubscribing Russian ability is just as bad as undersubscribing. Putin has made the largest Russian strategic error since 1905 but for some reason every twitch or spurt coming out of Moscow is a master-plot. Russian will is made of iron, and Russian manpower is a bottomless pool. This was a major security failure that may just signal just how rickety things are in Putin-land. Russia is straining from this stupid war in ways that we simply cannot see. This entire incident is an example of Russian regime weakness, not ruthless strength. The next big question is, how deep and far do these cracks in the Russian facade go?

Ok, so what? In '99 Putin used terror as a mechanism to take power. In 2024...he is already in power. Major terror attacks in Moscow are now his problem because he is supposed to be the new czar and lead Russians to a glorious new empire. Having a terror group poop all over that is not good news anyway he spins this...he is the state. Putin just sent 100k+ countrymen to die in a useless war he started. No one is doubting his capacity to "do dirty". What is in doubt is the utility and practicality of another staged terror attack in the current context.

Now this is starting to make more sense. This was a regional-based terrorist action. This is more likely an opening shot on a Near Abroad break away because players smell blood in the water as Russia continues to be stretched by this war.

I am thinking that ISIL - who people really need to do some more reading on as we spent the better part of a decade fighting them in Iraq and Syria - or affiliate "ISIS-K," had some pretty obvious motives for the timing of this whole thing. All terrorism is about demonstration. And this is exactly what this was. ISIS-K is about creating a holy caliphate in the Stans (they are actually driving the Taliban nuts right now = zero sympathy and maybe there is a thing called karma). They took the opportunity after the Russian election to demonstrate that Putin is not "all powerful" and that Russia needs to back off while they create whatever it is they are pushing for. The entire action was more likely for their own regional support audience -"see we can strike at the heart of the Russian Empire". More simply put, it may very well have had little or nothing to do with this war. ISIS-K may be taking advantage of Russian security being overstretched because of the war but their motives/objectives have little to do with the war itself. Russia appears to be spinning this to throw crap at Ukraine by labeling them as "supporters" without giving Ukraine credit for the actual attack. This screams to me they are trying to salvage what they can from what is essentially a complete sh#tshow. People giving Russia credit for some masterful false flag conspiracy are simply playing into Russian narratives - "Look at how cunning and complex is our planning! You should re-think this entire war." Even when it makes absolutely zero sense to even try such an action. It is a f#cking duck.

ISIL has been drastically reduced but it has spun off affiliates within Afghanistan and other Stans. It would appear that they are very active and capable. Every major western news outlet is confirming it was IS-K backed up by western intel. Russia is trying to toss sh#t at Ukraine right now but even they have not invented some weird “it was IS-U” yet. The timing is odd, I will give it that.