The_Capt

Well you can and you can't. The UA definitely choked out the RA at Kharkiv and Kherson last year. To the point they basically collapsed. You can create so much friction that the operational system starts to fail. But it very much matters what that operational system is doing. So why is it not working now? Well first off we really do not know if it is working or not. We have seen heavy attrition of RA guns, I am going to assume ammo is getting hit too. RA armor is nearly non-existent - re: reports of the RA using them as static pillbox guns. And the RA is no where near demonstrated any operational offensive capability - that did not "just happen either". I suspect a lot of the logistics attrition is keeping Russia on the defensive right now. As to Defence, well the tyranny of force multiplication appear to be favoring the RA right now. The one mistake the UA made, or maybe it was a forced error, was they let the RA have the initiative back last winter. RA made a lot of noise at Bakhmut while Priggy - now singing with the Devils Choir - sent wave after wave of humans at the problem. Meanwhile everyone was "LOLZing" RA dragons teeth and obstacles in the center - silly Russians. Well it looks like they took that time and mined everything that couldn't run away. Force multiplication essentially changes the force ratios by virtue of offsets. So the UA still needs to 3:1 (for arguments sake, let's not go down that road again) but the RA "1" is in reality fewer people and more mines. Mines don't need breakfast, or medics, or letters from home - pretty stoic bunch. This is what minefields and obstacles really do. They create battlefield friction that changes the force-space equations between the attacker and defender. And it would appear the RA has done this fairly successfully. It also changes the logistical requirements so the RA does not really need trainloads and trainloads of supplies. They likely stockpiled too while everyone was making fun of their obstacles. So choking out a small logistical requirement over a big piece of ground is pretty hard. We don't see it but the UA has likely hammered the rail lines, transport nodes and the like. But we are talking a few trucks to give hard rations and a bit of ammo to a bunch of poor losers living in holes, who are likely already standing on ammo crates. So where do you go from here. Well you keep going forward and hope the Russians run out of mines because mines don't move yet. You also hope they run out of people to watch over those mines...very hard as precision is cutting both ways. This is all attritional. We are observing a massive experiment in corrosive warfare - are we a the limit of what it can do at this point in time? Or you open up a new offensive somewhere else where the RA is totally unprepared for it.

I never really bought into this in its entirety to be honest. Iran is all death to the West and Great Satan. While trying to create offset against Saudi Arabia and hold their own guts in. Russia is...well who knows what Russia really wants? Some weird sort of mash up between Czarist Empire and the USSR so they can be free to flex in their Near Abroad whenever the whim takes them. China is pretty complicated. A lot of noise coming out of warhawk circles in the US that this entire thing is existential - I am not so sure. China wants a New Deal, that much is clear, but it also likes western business/investment. I am not convinced they want to break the West so much as bend it. I do not think we are at "in order for us to survive, you cannot" situation with China. They are still everyone's second largest trading partner. Lot's of room for this whole intense negotiation/competition to go sideways but we are not there yet. I have heard New Cold War for some time now, and even bought off on elements of it. But I am not sure what we are heading into will look like that. I think it will look much more like late 19th and early 20th century pre-WW1 Europe...but with nukes, and internet...cause we weren't crazy enough yet.

At this point I am not really trusting either narrative - “Russia did it”, “Ukraine did it”. The idea Ukraine could somehow ship weapons to Hamas is laughable. But this could also be a play by Kyiv to pin this whole thing on Russia to garner support. Yeesh, can’t we just do one war at a time?

Makes the obstacle very vulnerable to explosive breaching. However I do not think the UA has that capability. Not sure it would work though as line charge systems can be bulky and highly visible. Did Perun mention that this appears to be an odd evolution in the concept of force multipliers? The UA are doing force multiplication via C4ISR and precision. While Russia is dumping dumb massed minefields everywhere. The force multipliers are in competition with each other. Biggest advantage for the UA is that their system can move. Biggest for RA is that it is very cheap.

Wanted to come back to this one. This is not artillery clearing a minefield. It is a minefield clearing a minefield. The mines are too close together and the detonation pressure from one is setting off another. Clearly the RA is in a “never too many mines” mood.

It this kinda goofing (the cyber thing) that tells me that there was no master plan- bunch of come latelies trying to cash in on news cycle. Hamas went and made a mess because they are Hamas and want attention - and they are going to get it. As dramatic as the action was, it was not decisive. Israel has not lost strategic option space, they have gained it. Typical Palestinian strategy of crushing enemies by burning your own house down. As to the war in Ukraine, I mean sure there could be secondary or tertiary overlaps but any “master plan” by Russia is laughable considering how badly they screwed up in Ukraine. As you note they may have some GRU goons pretending to be players but that entire region is like holding a skunk with a firecracker up its *** in the manipulation department. Humans abhor uncertainty - most humans anyway - and we tend to invent patterns to try and make sense of it all. Sometimes it is just another crappy day in the Middle East. As to impact on this war, well I suspect they will be treated as separate issues for awhile but politics are the Playing Fields of Angry Ignorance at the best of times, so we will have to see.

Russia really has been playing both sides down there. They were pretty “ok” with Israel too, a lot of people with Russian family roots in Israel - ironic, they left because life was so crappy in Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Russia_relations There is also the whole “anti-Nazi” thing. But at the same time Russia has sided with al-Assad in Syria and played footsie with Hamas and others aligned with Iran. It seems pretty complicated. I honestly think there is daylight between these two wars on the Russian side of the equation. It will likely have an impact on the Westerd side but I am betting it was a surprise to Russia and they are basically going to try and stay neutral. Hamas is a tiny militant group by conventional warfare standards - something like 40,000 at the upper end. Their capabilities are not zero but no AirPower or Seapower. They are very likely to loom at the lessons of Denial in Ukraine and types to apply them but it is a very different dynamic. I mean the world is a crazy place so if hard evidence linking this latest Hamas action directly comes it will be surprising - given Russian history of strategy-stupid. But I really do not expect it. Iran, definitely. That is the shoe to drop on this one. Gaza is screwed. Ground invasion and house cleaning is almost guaranteed. Hell, Israel might go so far as forced deportation but then Egypt gets weird. But if Israel decides to make an a example with Iran we could see a repeat of something like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera Gonna need a bigger forum if that happens.

Really damn risky play. Far right in the US get wind that Russia backed a slaughter of Israelis and the whole thing could swing enormous support into the arms of “let’s get Russia”. Would only be a big win of the US does not find out and given the intelligence architectures in the region, that is a stretch. Done the math. The “help” will likely be symbolic. Israel does not need a lifeline of support to pound Hamas into sand, they just needed permission…and I think they just got it.

All I want for (the real) Thanksgiving, is a River Crossing Assault to break the left flank!

So first of all, if you are turning to Lindsey Graham for foreign policy advice, you may want to check outside and ensure that the sky in in the right location. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/lindsey-grahams-foreign-policy-advice-donald-trump/572089/ But that is just me. Of course we want Russia to get back in the box. Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas. We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into. We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy". Ukraine is not a "weapon in our hands," it is a nation who we are desperately trying to keep above water. The strategy you are proposing is so bafflingly short-sighted that is borders on self-destructive. So how many Russians are enough? What happens if Ukraine doesn't kill enough Russians to satisfy our bloodlust? Of course when you are done killing Russians we will simply walk away and leave you in the ruins, because all we care about are dead Russians and not the reconstruction of Ukraine. There is an element of proxy war to this conflict, but it is not one we wanted. If the objective were to destroy Russia, then we would drag this thing out for decades - that is the argument coming out of the US far right, btw, "this is a forever war where we fight til the last Ukrainian...we should get out now!" MacGregor pretty much has been saying this from Day 1. So all talks of "Dead Russians as Strategic Objective" and "Economic Interests - War for Cash" and "Ukraine is a Handgun", you can leave in the far right loonie bins where they belong. Finally, if you are telling me that Canada, under a liberal government, is spending over 2 billion, coming up on 10 percent of our annual defence spending, in the defence of your nation because "killing Russians" is our sole national interest, then I think this conversation is pretty much over.

I think it is a fascinating look into the far right info sphere. They have a very significant Judeo-Christian base that honestly believe that Israel are the chosen people and is central to biblical prophesy (and oddity at the same time next door to rampant anti-Semites). Israel gets enormous attention and positive support pressure from the Bible Belt base, which are the foundation of the entire right movement in the US. So Don Don #2 is really just reflecting what that info sphere is putting out there - almost nothing on Ukraine, because Pop Pop likes Russia, and losing its mind over Israel because Jesus said so. Given Don Jrs track record, this guy could not organize plan if it was a hostage teleprompter held down by gun tape. So my bet is he is just parroting what he is seeing. Definitely going to make the next few months interesting as this whole Israeli thing could suck a lot of air out of the room. US far right thinks Ukraine is “fake news” while Israel is the End Times.

If that were true then why is my country spending an order of magnitude more on support than it ever saw in trade? https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/ukraine/relations.aspx?lang=eng# https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html# By your paradigm there is no stark national interest for Canada to spend billions in supporting your country. Sure Russia is doing dirty but it is a country that we historically do much more trade with than Ukraine: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/canada https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports/canada We live under the security umbrella of the US and are 9 timezones away. Beyond diaspora - and last we recognized that relationship it did not work out so well (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-house-speaker-apologizes-recognition-veteran-who-fought-nazis-2023-09-24/)…why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine? A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with? No, I reject your premise as it does not match the facts. Do nations work toward interest? Absolutely. However, those interest are expressed as far more than money and fear - and they should be. We are in this because we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now. Where unilateral invasions are in fact against the law. We built that world to get and stay well, we also built it because we actually care enough about humanity that we would prefer we don’t destroy ourselves through narrow minded greed. There is no hard geopolitical or economic reasons for Canada to be spending this amount of money on supporting your nation in this war. There are some incredibly powerful morale and ethical ones, and as bafflingly ignorant as a we can be at times, those things still matter. We got rid of AP landmines because they did more harm than good. Not some weird “hey everyone let’s disarm Ukraine so Russian can maul them later - tee hee”. Same definitely goes for nukes - sorry but Eastern Europe was a hot mess after the USSR fell and no junior partner still trying to figure which way was up was going to be keeping hands on strategic weapons. Frankly Ukraine was not that important to anyone’s calculus in the 90s and 00s to put that together - you may recall we kinda had our hands full. So I think we are done here. You want to be a bitter old man dreaming reasons why “everyone screwed you” and why “we all owe you”, I can’t stop you. But the reality is that our sin in the west was we simply did not care. We were focused on other things while Russia kept sticking its toes over the line while getting people hooked on cheap energy. There was no conspiracy, there was neglect. But Ukraine was and is an independent nation that needs to own it mistakes as well - and there were many. In the end all that added up to an embolden Russia that leaned in to far too fast…and here we are. We support Ukraine because we all owe it to each other to ensure that we do not fall back into dictators doing whatever they want to grab power. We fought two of the largest wars in human history in the last century when we allowed that to happen. It is bigger than money and geopolitics. It is bigger than whatever grudges, bias or prejudice you bring onto this. This is about global order and the right thing to do.

Like most of your other theories, come up with one shred of supporting evidence. Of course there was diplomacy but no one coerced Ukraine into giving up land mines. The fact that Ukraine still has cluster munitions is proof that coercion was not the primary method of trying to get people to sign on to any of these treaties. Prove it. Again the West can’t win. We somehow blindly trusted Russia and then violated agreements not to contain them through NATO expansion. We forced Russia’s hand and let them do dirty through inaction- at the same time. Here is the truth and you can go back to the Budapest Memo debate we had on this…Ukraine agreed to all of the arms reductions the each step on the way. Ukraine was paid millions for those reductions and signed off on every one. Ukraine signed off on guarantees - weak as they were - as well. So now that things have obviously gone sideways, you want to forget all that and put all the blame on the US/West for this mess? You want to forget gross political corruption in defence - that is still happening according to some - that very likely would have seen all those MANPADs sold off to a highest bidder, many in those VEOs we faced for 20 years? Are we to honestly believe that you are saying with a straight face that Ukraine would have held onto all that weaponry for a rainy day 20-30 years later? The West’s failure was in not acting decisively and with unity back in 2014. We definitely did not step up and push back hard enough. That is a fair point. Further we definitely could have moved faster in late 21. The rest of your narrative is unsubstantiated, and frankly self-serving. The West does not owe Ukraine a damned thing based on its failures. It owes you support because it is the right thing to do. Ukraine is an independent nation that was minding its own business when Russia decided to invade and murder. That is why we support Ukraine. Not some bizarre construct of culpability pulling half the facts from the 1990s.

And this is where I stop listening. "Forced" to sign the Ottawa treaty. Sure. By who? Bigfoot? They were! "May 1990: Gorbachev and Bush Meet at Camp David and Washington Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met in Washington and Camp David in May 1990. They signed a key elements agreement for a strategic arms treaty, a chemical weapons reduction accord, and a trade agreement reducing barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. They also concluded several other bilateral accords to increase cultural and scientific exchanges, and maritime and air links. In addition, the two leaders discussed the topics of Lithuania and German unification. Following the summit, President Gorbachev journeyed to Minneapolis to meet local business leaders. The next day, he met with former President Reagan in San Francisco before returning to Moscow." https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85962.htm#:~:text=Presidents Bush and Gorbachev met,barriers to U.S.-Soviet commerce. Hey, you want to paint some nonsense Grampa Simpson rants on how this war you are in is all the US/West's fault - go for it, see how far it gets you in sustaining international support. Oh and you totally got me with that picture: Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...must be why we forced Ukraine to sign the Ottawa treaty.

I honestly do not even see that link. Israel does not need anymore western support to deal with Hamas. The IDF is the 15th largest military on the planet by budget and has about 650k thousand troops to pull on. They are amongst the most modern equipped and trained land forces in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Defense_Forces Hamas military wing is a fraction of that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Izz_ad-Din_al-Qassam_Brigades An although getting some pretty deep pockets for a terror organization, is not in the same league with respect to conventional warfare. I am not sure what triggered this whole thing right now, but my money is on internal pressures not international events. In fact Hamas timing is actually poor. With the West being distracted and somewhat numb we probably will be less likely to care when the IDF start pounding the ever living crap out of Gaza, followed up by a brutal ground invasion.

Well sure, by that logic I guess the US is in bed with Iran too: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/iranian-drone-parts-13-us-companies-ukraine-russia/index.html Russia is in bed with Iran because they will do business with each other and both hate the US. Iran is selling what Russia needs right now, weapons, and they are one of the few countries in the world comfortable doing that. US just released billions in Iranian assets to get US citizens back: https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-prisoner-swap-sanctions-assets-4e1fa477f8e6af45fb764acd259c2f1a Is this a US plot to attack Israel because they did not "go all in" on Ukraine too? All this build up to "Israel should be a global pariah because Ukraine and Hamas proves it." Complete and utter bovine scatology.

In the 90s the US held back and tried to be a team player. In the 2000s after 9/11 it said "screw that" and started throwing weight around. It was "wrong" both times according just about everyone. It is any surprise that a highly conservative-isolationist sentiment is on the rise in US politics? But hey, we are at the point where a few Palestinian idiots (who are likely to be dead soon) singing at a wedding are being taken as a foreign policy indicator. Here is a guy who is convinced it was a Russian attack because Hamas used drones: https://tvpworld.com/73258518/russia-is-behind-hamas-attacks-on-israel-expert But hey choose your own truth, I guess: https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/many-albertans-think-global-warming-is-a-hoax-but-ufos-are-real-poll

C'mon, that is really bordering on conspiracy theories we do not want to get into. In fact the logic doesn't even make sense. Israel had "too strong ties with Russia", yet Russia was also supporting Hamas to conduct an attack of this scale? So Russia did this because...why? Israel was already pretty much out of this war, so why open up another front? Russia is in bed with Iran because they are anti-US/West. What interest does Russia possibly have in a war in Israel? In fact if Russia had that sort of pull wouldn't Israel "going all in in Ukraine" simply accelerated what is happening now? This is drawing links where none exist. Hamas and Israel have been going to war with each other for over 20 years, they really don't need a Russian (or US) excuse to do so again. None of this comes close to justify saying that "it is all Israel's fault because Ukraine". If Israel had somehow really supported Ukraine then Hamas would not be doing whatever this is, I mean seriously?!

Oh even better, let’s double down shall we - now it is all the “West’s fault”. The US did not “force” anyone to disarm. Ukraine took the money happily and got rid of mountains of old USSR stocks that would not have shortened you current war at all. Or worse held onto strategic nukes that would have accelerated one. Regardless, what is unfolding in Israel has nothing to do with their stance on Russia. Or the West not carpet bombing Moscow every time a suicide bomber goes off in Tel Aviv. In fact beyond some pretty tenuous money trails from Russia buying stuff from Tehran to support their war, that in turn likely funded some Hamas, the link is non-existent. We could have pounded Russia into sand and Hamas would still be doing this sort of stuff, or do you honestly think deterrence extends that far. For the record it is in extremely bad taste to post video of slaughtered Israeli civilians and follow up with “I told you so”, especially when the “told” is so far off the mark it borders on John Kettler-level. It suggests that in your opinion that Israel deserves whatever this is because they have not sent Ukraine enough whatever - statements like that make one wonder just who the hell we are supporting in this war. Globally, basically the only way you appear to be satisfied is if the US and West essentially start behaving like Russia - that will somehow make the world a better place? We tried a lot of hard power flexing in the 2000s, we invaded two countries and a whole lot of westerners are left wondering what the freakin point was. Now we got new messes to deal with and do not need partners we are trying to keep above water telling us “you are doing it wrong” anymore than Ukraine wants us to tell you how to win your war.

Dude, stick to Ukraine. You are making enormously unfounded leaps of logic here. No one can reasonably describe Israeli foreign policy with respect to Iran (where they launched numerous HVT strikes over the years) or Gaza/Hamas (where they have conducted regular airstrikes and military action/war back to 2006: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) as “two chair sitting”. Drawing a leap between Israeli perceived restraint with respect to the war in your country and what just happened in and around Gaza is drifting into conspiracy theory and disinformation. As I read it you are basically on the road to blaming every misery and long standing conflict in the west sphere on our escalation restraint. This is 1) wrong and 2) disingenuous.

Well I will now! Gotta be honest was on a whole separate journey - and my reward for completion was...more work!

Thanks guys. Guess who got tagged to do a Future of Joint Warfare piece at work? Yep, the guy who won't shut up about it. If Steve was particularly profit driven he would charge a membership fee for this thread.

Quick call for assistance from the community - in the massive stream of videos and link being posted on this monster thread, there was one that showed a UA company/bn attack from planning to execution - drones being used while HQ is directing. Can someone re-post that link for me as a favour because I have no idea how to find it in the stream. It was maybe last month, or even Aug? Doesn't matter really, just need one of UA doing a deliberate attack and how they are doing tactical C2. Please and thank you.

I think no small amount of the dis/mis Information Age we live in is because most people do not know how to vet and apply critical thinking with respect to the internet. Younger generations seem better at this but is digital refugees tend to lack some of the basic skill. We grew up when information was pumped at us through a box. We believed it, to a point. Then the information world blew up. In an ocean of information, anything can be made true. Connecting dots - even ones that were not there- became too easy. We gorged and got sick on it. Then we got scared and went back to listening to one or two channels on the box. Problem was we all seemed to pick the channels we liked and not the ones we could trust because we did not know which ones to trust. So we wind up with information being provided based on what we want to hear as opposed to what is actually happening. The monetization of mainstream information channels did not help (although one could argue it was always monetized) but they adapted and began to tell truths they could seem to a market...not the actual truth. It was all fun and games until politicians started doing it. Now everyone else but my sources is “lying”, in an age that lying should be impossible. The truth became relevant. Again one could argue it always has been but the distance between relevance frameworks grew and diversified as we all sought certainty instead of truth. I can only hope that young people are growing up far more digitally cynical and can smell “fake” much better than we can. Of course with AI, “fake” is simply getting better as well.

I think of these three, #2 was the most viable but now after the war went all sideways where is the internal political threat? If there were frictions and divisions that drove this pretty extreme course of action, then why have they not exploded in the mess that followed? It only matters if the calculus that started the war can give insight into how to end it. But so far I have not really seen any definitive explanation - we might never get one. My best guess is that military and security forces were not ready until Feb 22, so that may explain “earlier”. But it does not explain “why not later?” Maybe Putin is feeling his own mortality. Maybe there was an internal forcing function that somehow went away after the war dragged on. Maybe the plan was to go later but Russia got wind that US intel had picked them up and they had to go before support to Ukraine started to build.