The_Capt

Well I think we found our Mussolini in all this

I get the OPs point, we do need to be mindful of propaganda from all corners of this thing. However, the facts and evidence are stacking so high at this point that it has changed the character of this war. War crimes always happen in war, true. But the frequency and intensity are a direct reflection of the fighting force perpetrating them, who are in turn a direct reflection of the society that produced, sent and supports those same soldiers. Generally one can accept “anomalies” of abhorrent behaviour, but when it takes on a frequency and pattern of systemic organization, it crosses a larger line that speaks to the qualities of the culture that allowed this to happen - I have in-laws who are German, and they live with this even today based on WW2, these are stains that do not wash easily. So what about this war? Well it has become a stain on the Russian people. You allowed this to happen, either by supporting the current government, or not doing anything to stop them. This one is on you, each and everyone - of at least voting age and functioning mental faculty. You can cry “lies” and persecution but you have earned every one of those as well. Worse, your children, who do not have a voice in this, will live with this for generations. It is costing a lot more than world opinion, as we have discussed at length and will continue to cost for years. To the OP my advice is to not waste your time at a small niche wargaming site trying to defend what has become undefendable. My advice is to resist this from without or within any way that you can. And I mean resist the Russian government and work towards its downfall because it needs to fall. You may not succeed but at least you will be able to look in the mirror and know you did what you could to preserve any shred of Russian dignity. These types of wars can break nations, those attacked and those attacking. I strongly suggest you spend your energies elsewhere in order to try and preserve what you have left as a nation.

Ok, c’mon, Ukraine produces a lot of wheat but we are nowhere near dependant on them and neither is Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_wheat_production_statistics https://www.statista.com/statistics/1094065/total-global-wheat-consumption-by-country/ For example the US consumes about 30 million tons (about half of which is animal feed) and produces over 52 million. Even Russia consumes about 41 million tons and produces 75 million tons, Russia does not need Ukraine wheat and is not going to die for it either. Your empty bread shelves likely have to do with internal supply chain disruption because the US produces more than it can eat. Russia did not need any of Ukraines resources, this is not about that. Nor is Russia going to wage a long war over them. Russia may try to dig in but is more likely to buckle as the thin arguments for this war hit further home and more Russians die. And even if they do, they are quickly approaching a point where Ukraine has the more-better military, leaving Russia with the weaker military. I don’t care if the Russias are made out of boiled leather and are willing to eat dirt and drink tears, there is no war in history where things go well for a weaker invading army. Russia is not “defending” anything, it is trying to hold onto what it has tried to steal, that is a very different calculus.

So you mean like both North American and European (and Chinese and Russian) interests in Africa? I am not sure many nations on the bottom of the economic food chain would agree that this “mutual development” approach has ever really been the plan. China has a pretty long track record of setting itself to extract resources cleanly and it now has advantages in a weakened Russia. As to negative impacts, Russias larger trading partners were in Europe, so I expect we need to get past that. Again, I do not see this as a loss for China but I guess time will tell.

Yes I do. Do a quick search of Chinese fishing and food security, it is no small issue for them, nor for us with respect to what is emerging in the Arctic. As to the rest, China has invested trillions globally to secure access to resources, it will do the same with Russia, to a point. I do not think China will care about replacing Europe as much as simply accessing Russian resources for as cheaply as possible, which has been their playbook globally. Arctic fishing…why do they need a navy or airforce? They just need to secure the rights to do it in the Russian controlled Arctic Ocean and their massive fishing fleets will do the rest. Chinas signalling for the Arctic are not exactly a secret https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/11/chinas-strategic-interest-in-the-arctic-goes-beyond-economics/ http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm https://www.brookings.edu/research/northern-expedition-chinas-arctic-activities-and-ambitions/ And the result of this war likely just gave them a boost.

Heh, given the conference and this guys background, I am pretty sure that was not what he was saying at all. But your point is a valid one, Russia has always been geopolitically difficult. I don’t buy that they were destined to wind up in Chinas orbit, especially given their history. I seriously doubt that their current trajectory was the desired “fall back”. The issue was, and still is the Russia regime, who would not negotiate in good faith with the West and whose reach was pure fantasy, that of a re-born USSR. Regardless, we are where we are now and I do not any hope of re-normalization of Russia and the west anytime soon, if at all in my lifetime.

Good question. My immediate thinking is that China has 1) a more unified decision making structure (at least on the surface) 2) will not get as distracted as the west has been the last decade, so less chance of paralysis of action, and 3) with be ruthless in protecting its investments and interests. All this adds up to a far more pragmatic and let’s say direct strategy between Russian and China that we have been able to muster in the West. We are all very happy that Ukraine is kicking ass and winning this thing but let’s not ignore the Western failure in this thing from day 1. We let things slide after Crimea with weak porous sanctions. We dithered and eroded NATO and other alliances. And we kept buying Russian gas, pretending nothing happened in 2014. And we ignored Russian political and “covert” actions up to and including literally messing with our democratic systems. I think China will have a much different approach. But as you say, Russia will be their problem. A problem that comes with a lot of natural resources, the Arctic fishing rights alone are probably worth Chinese pain on this one. Of course if we were smart we would be ready to exploit that arrangement…we will see.

I am pretty sure Lincoln said something similar. Well pass it along that a lot of us bet on that horse, and we are well and truly screwed if it jumps off a cliff.

Oh you just gotta be like that...fine pre-dreadnoughts of the 19th century.

That is a really important point. In many ways China in 2022, looks a lot like late 19th century US. Its expansion is largely economic, not military or colonial. China has made a lot if underhanded deals, but they have not overtly invaded anyone as far as I know since those border clashes with Vietnam back in 79; hell, our track record in the West is worse than that. Everyone in the mainstream seems worried that China will take this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan; however, I think it will be far more subtle and smart than an open invasion (please god, we have had enough). And another really good point. China is not a rogue power, like Russia. It is playing by a set of rules that it wants to master and hold the pen on the re-write so it can negotiate from strength for the next hundred. This means negotiation both externally and internally, this is how the "grown ups" have to play the game. My honest bet is that China will continue to attack the Black Elephant in the room, the internal divisions within western democracies, the US in particular. If we cannot get over ourselves, I think we are in serious trouble in 20 years.

It is all good. If I ever find the time, I need to write up a piece on the phenomenon of this thread itself. We have a bunch of people who are largely only connected via a small wargame, but who are also a collection of expertise in a lot of different fields. We coalesced here and have produced assessment and analysis that frankly compares to the paid stuff out there in the world. We even became self-regulating, without - I hazard - becoming too much of an echo chamber. And all this time no one has really posted their bona-fides. I mean a few were already known going in, but a lot of this has really just been the quality of discussion and opinion. Not sure what to call this "emergent analysis", "organic" but it has been really fascinating to watch and participate in.

We can put a pin in this right there and come back to it in about a year or two. I think China is treating Russia like a "useful idiot" and is banking on western attention spans - which is basically how we got into this mess in the first place. Finally, I do not think that China sees this through a military lens, which seems to be where we automatically go. I think they are seeing it through a much more economic and trade lens. I also suspect it will lend to China doubling down on subversive and sideways approaches as conventional military conflict is proving itself to be very expensive and high risk. Further, as Russia has proven very aptly, military power in the modern era is best treated like Dreadnoughts of the 19th century; a useful investment in threat, so long as they never really get used. I think one of these videos put is best, "Russia was winning this war, right up to the point that actually started waging a real one". I do not for one moment that this current conflict has somehow "solved-for-China" through proxy war with Russia, that is a dangerous assumption. Nor that China lacks "soft power", or maybe "sharp" is a better description (https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/).

Interesting, looks like the Russians have figured out that these things are primary targets...and they are likely running out of them.

Middle income traps...western world, to your own house look. I am not sure where this leaves the west. We have definitely united but the divisions are still there, just watch the news. I am almost convinced we are already in a version of a Cold War, but nothing like the last one. Maybe more like pre-WWI competition to be honest. The lines are definitely drawn and I do not think we come out of this "normal". I think China is paying very close attention to this war, but are going to take away different conclusions other than "fear us". My bet is that they will note how "not to" take on the west but also "how to better". I too, do not believe China is an unstoppable power that is simply going to roll us over; however, their trajectory is as impressive as the global rise of the US during the end of the 19th century. I disagree on Chinese global power. Not militarily but economically they are stretching out very far, the evidence on this is significant. Further, I am not at all convinced that China was surprised by this, we have no idea what their intelligence apparatus really looks like or what they knew or did not. Considering the US was pushing out so much, I doubt they did not have internal intel validation as well. So what? Well to be honest the one area that concerns me the most with respect to China's rise and this emerging conflict/competition - "confletition?", is that if all war is: vision/certainty, communication, negotiation, and sacrifice, who has the sacrifice advantage? Based on the state of the west right now, I am coming to the uncomfortable conclusion that it is not us. We talk about the middle-class trap in China, our western societies are so entitled right now that we are seeing mass protests on public health mandates, all the while if anyone gets sick at these things they had better have free healthcare to take care of them. The west is at least 2 generations from having to actually fight for itself on the scope and scale we are seeing in Ukraine, maybe 3 and we have become highly entitled. We will not willingly sacrifice much, even in the face of a global pandemic, let alone a greyish global power competition. China, I strongly suspect, is playing on a different field entirely when it comes to what they are willing to sacrifice to continue to expand, and that is something to be very concerned about.

Not sure anything we are discussing here meets the "nationalistic" definition as no one nation is being represented, this is more a discussion on "what happens next" on a global scale. It seems like every time I hear, or get into a discussion on China and the power contest with the current global order the usual suspects come out. We get the ardent anti-Chinese paranoia ("they are in my plumbing") and what you pose here, "The Glass Dragon", the only thing missing is poking holes in property bubbles and demographics. I do want to pull on one thread here that often comes out of the "Glass Dragon" sphere, I highlighted it in your post. That has been the "get in line" strategy we have been basically relying upon for over 30 years. The hope that China would see the error of its ways as we demonstrate the benefits of the current global order, while we try to contain its rapid expansion. It is basically a version of the Cold War strategy, and it has not worked, nor is it likely to in my opinion. And most of the 5EYEs Security and Defence strategies agree with me, so there is that. Finally, I am not sure what the definition of a "true superpower" is, but this gets thrown around a lot as well. Are we talking the ability to leverage influence on a global scale? Is it comparative to the US? Is it marshalling collective will? These terms get thrown out in what looks more like an attempt to make ourselves feel better than really looking at our environment (i.e. "well we are still a superpower and they aren't...oh look the Friends Reunion is on") I think we are past "normalization hope" here, as this current war looks and feels like the opening of a new phase of this thing. I was at a defence conference way back in 2015 and it was largely boring old stuff one expects hear at these things. There was a lot of focus on Russia because of the Crimea but it was the usual "we will win through teamwork and capitalism" type stuff. Then this old guy was on a panel that made the whole room sit up and take notice. He was in charge of covert action in Afghanistan back in the 80s, which was pretty impressive, but his points on Russia resonate to this day. His position was that the future global competition, as it relates to Russia, was which sphere that nation was driven or pulled into. We, the west, needed to pull Russia towards Europe, and that should be easy as gravity of history and culture was on our side. If Russia were to be driven into the Eastern sphere 1) shame on us for letting it happen and 2) that would be a very bad thing. Here we are in 2022, this thing is not decided but it sure looks like it is sliding in the bad direction to me. I frankly subscribe to the "who wins out of all this" as a metric, and right now China's position looks pretty solid.

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy. I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order. If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world. Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century. I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here. Ukraine is one, Russia is the other. And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes. China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of. It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner. This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe. Our sanctions are against Russian corporations. As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit. I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are. As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself. Welcome to the Complicated War 1.

This tracks. I cannot recall where I picked it up but a CAA is supposed to run with about 300 logistics vehicles and right now they are down just over 3 CAA’s worth based on Oryx visual confirmations. So +30% of original invasion force makes sense. It also makes sense that the RA did not have enough time to integrate replacements as there was only about 3 weeks between withdraw from the North and this Donbas operational. So the very likely glued broken formations together and stuffed whatever they could find (contractors/ mercs, etc) plus anything they had left into this push. If the rumours of “mobilization” on 9 May are true that is a signal that this second phase of the war is not working for the Russian military, while it continues to bleed. Now here the math adds up for the RA…

Well beyond the whole “let’s stick our bare asses in the air” -seriously have these guys never heard of cam nets? - I count 25-30 logistical vehicles, pretty much parked nose to tail. That is a BTGs worth of logistics, based on the after video it looks like they pretty much got the lot, or enough of them. So add one more BTG off the board on top of whatever F echelon losses they had that day.

Looks like the bagged a re-fueler or two, and I think we are seeing ammo cook-off too.

Supposed to. Of course the state of their logistics is also in serious question. Oryx is showing they are coming up on 900 logistics vehicles gone. A quick scan of re-fuelers takes me to 95, and that is not counting the 285 vehicles so badly damaged they cannot be confirmed as what they were when they walk among the living. A BTG looks like it has 2-3 re-fuelers per: At 95 confirmed losses, we are talking roughly 30 BTGs worth of re-fuelers, that is 1/3 of the overall initial invasion force. But that is ok cause that invasion force lost most of its tanks anyway. And then this, plus Donetsk half-manned BTGs, leads to the large, awkward question - and I am talking "night-after surprise cousins" awkward - "Why would anyone try an operational pincer with a broken shoulder?!" Look, before anyone wonders, I want Russia to lose and lose so bad that they either remove Putin and try to re-normalize, or we just accept Cold War 2.0 and they can become a Chinese gas station. My assessment is that Russia is losing, to the point that they have lost this war and just haven't decided "how bad". No, my issue here is one of professional disgust at this freakin amateur hour job; it is the worst the military profession can be, getting a lot of people killed for nothing. We have like one supreme rule in this gig - get the job done as quickly and cleanly as possible. The second a military is not trying to do this, they do not deserve the honor of the name "military" as they are essentially a heavily armed mob. Throw in what is looking more like a culture of war crimes, and the Russian's can mobilize every fighting age person they have and they will still only have an undisciplined mob, not a fighting force.

So the world kinda makes sense in the Izyum and Kreminna fronts. Not only does the UA have the numbers (and they had plenty of time) the terrain is not attacker friendly (at least not from Kreminna). But what in the hell is going on at Donetsk? 20 GTBs vs 3 Bdes?! And it is a big frontage, which means the UA is stretched thinner, even if they are dug in. A really big frontage per BTG does not mean the RA can't concentrate forces. The math still does not add up either way. Remember that the RA is not going to stick all its BTGs in a neat little line on these frontages. They should only be able to put about 2/3rd of their combat power, leaving 1/3 in reserve, but based on RA performance to date, who knows if they are sticking to that? I am at the point of calling this, barring the Second Coming throwing in with the RA; this whole Donbas Offensive has stalled and is either at a highwater mark or damn near it. Looking at the ISW maps, this creeping RA advances do not look like they are going anywhere, pretty much as we suspected. I think if Russia does "mobilize" in a Great War Against an Existential Threat Country 1/3 its size, filled with Nazi-Rabbis, it is likely going to throw troops on those lines just to hold onto what it can. Putin will hold some "fair and free elections" and try to declare victory. While Ukraine arms up and figures out how to go on operational-level offence. Looking at this map, I can see how mainstream pundits were drawing big red lines all over the place; however, they missed the micro-realities of this war. Russia is under crippling friction internally and externally - to the point we aren't even sure the RA wants to fight anymore. The UA is still not only vastly superior on the information front "see- Farmhouse decapitation strike video", they are still able to hit the RA systems all the way back into Russia. This make the RA operational machine even more fragile. The Russians never solved-for-Offensive Operations in this war. In part due to baffling mis-management, and I think in no small part to how Ukraine decided to fight on the defence, which we have talked about at length (see: precision artillery, UAVs and dispersed light infantry etc). The only real question left here, to my mind, is "can Ukraine solve for broader Offensive Operations?" That is the thing I am looking out for in the coming weeks. Unless the whole rotten "Russian house of bull-sh&t" doesn't collapse in on itself.

I keep wondering how big these lies can get before they pop. Pretty big it looks like. So “everything is going according to plan” in this “special military operation”. That whole goat rodeo in March up North was a deliberate “feint” to support the real objective of the “Donbas”, which the RA will take in a bippy. Those exploding factories and plant fires are all coincidence. In fact the war is going so well that Russia is “mobilizing”, you know so there can be more troops on the victory parade. Then you got the pro-Russian noise that is going “Ukraine is on it last legs, down to last troops”, which of course logically means “mobilize Russia”. The Russian Foreign Minister manages to get Israel off the bench with his “Nazi-Jews” thing. Then there is the question of “mobilize what?” I am reaching but I cannot really find an easy comparison to another war so badly politically and strategically managed than Russia’s current one. I mean there is one out there but this trend of doubling-down on the worst option, every-time would be comical if not for all the innocent people dying. This is not a quagmire war, it is a lava field and Russia is determined to pull its legs out with its face. Worse, a full on mobilization could strain the cracks in that country to breaking.

I am leaning towards Steve’s initial theory that this whole thing was a staged production. The RA needed to look busy but knew they could not possibly pull off what was being asked, so “look busy, don’t die” looks to be the main scheme of manoeuvre here. That, or this was the attempt and it fizzled as predicted, because the terrain and force math simply never added up. Russia is approaching the bottom of the barrel option-wise. Try to dig in and hold on while declaring victory…or leave. That first one may work for awhile but the UA will eventually move to major offensives, and that is a LOT of terrain to try and defend.

So assuming this goes long (I.e. the Russian military does not collapse), then we are talking about a Force Generation/mobilization competition. Everyone looks at Russia’s manpower numbers and goes “woah” and starts chattering about Ukraine getting “orc hord-ed”, over-run and crushed. The crowd along these lines either fear this, and some appear to want it for various reasons. The reality is that in a Force Generation race Ukraine is already way out front. The have a bottomless bank, they have western training support and they have already mobilized the manpower. Further, Ukraine has the entire western military industrial complex to draw from, a complex that is pretty much invulnerable to Russian influence (less natural gas etc). In short the west can push better, and more, equipment into Ukraine, while Ukraine can training better and faster. Russia has more manpower, yes. But it needs more than just teenagers lining up to fight, it needs the training infrastructure and trainers to get those kids to the point they can fight as military units. Its frontline ready equipment has been badly shredded and there is speculation as to the state of its reserves. Russia’s military industrial complex is under siege, along with the rest of its industry. It ability to produce modern equipment is in question but likely badly eroded and very likely much slower than the west can. So adding that all up and a long war/mobilization scenario suddenly does not look so good for Russia as it would need to build the Force Gen pipe internally, equip that force all the while under increasing stress. The longer Russia takes, the worse it gets. Ukraine is the front end of a proxy war between Russia and the entire western world (along with others). It’s “allies” such as China have no interest in getting into this as deeply as the west is in Ukraine. So the calculus does not look good no matter what Putin “declares” or not in a week or so. The RA can’t seem to advance more than 30kms without stalling, and this is the best of what is left. Putin does not have the military to win this, and he can’t build one faster, better than his opponent; like everything else in this war, the math does not add up for Russia. As to “war on NATO” or nukes, I think those are more likely to get Putin removed from power, perhaps terminally as I am not sure Russians are ready to die en masse for one man, no matter what the polling shows.