IMHO

Really? May I quote You may want to message Haiduk to stop being a Russian state-owned medium Has Ukraine considered setting up a Ministry of Truth? To coordinate "search and mood-clean" operations Since Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence Mr. Igor Pavlovsky in an interview to Ukrainian TV proudly said that Ukrainian forces are finally pushing DNR "meter by meter, step by step" after so many months of calm you seem to have a Ministry of Peace already

"Nearly 1,000 demonstrators clashed with scores of black-helmeted riot police in the capital Kiev, with both sides using pepper spray and law enforcement officials wielding batons to disperse the crowds. The protesters had gathered on the previous day, after the country's parliament unexpectedly passed a controversial law that granted official status to the Russian language in regions where it is predominantly spoken. [...] Russian, mother tongue of most people in east and south Ukraine, would get "regional language" status" They were clashing with police in order not to let the Eastern and Southern Ukraine use Russian. "People in the country's Russian-speaking east and south have a predictably different view on the matter. [...] They also bristle at the accusation - especially in the country's west, where Ukrainian is predominantly spoken - that they are any less Ukrainian than the rest of the country. [..] I speak Russian - what's the big problem? Why do people in the west get to say who is Ukrainian and who isn't? Ruslan, Taxi driver [...] They say that they are patriotic Ukrainians - just ones that speak another language - and they simply wish to have the right to speak their native tongue..." That's BBC of two years before the war - I hope you won't call BBC Russian propaganda Ukraine was run by a Western-oriented people from Jan, 2005 to Feb, 2010.

First article is dated to 2012. Wasn't this before "Russian influence" supposed to happen? Getting back on track means stopping reposting BBC articles that put official position of Kiev in question or coming back to current events on the front? I remember you wrote you feel pro-Russian people selectively pick the facts that suit their needs.

Georgia: an excerpt from the International Crisis Group report of November, 2004. Politically Georgians and South Ossetians are divided by the former's claims to state territorial integrity and the latter's aspirations for national self-determination. President Saakashvili has made restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity his top priority. Following his highly symbolic inauguration oath at the grave of David IV in January 2004, he stated, "Georgia's territorial integrity is the goal of my life". He promised that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be restored to Georgia before the presidential elections scheduled for 2009. Finding a solution to the South Ossetian issue is key for his credibility. Public opinion is unprepared to accept any solution that does not involve full reintegration of South Ossetia, and Saakashvili has done little to pave the way for any compromise. ICG is a very respectable organization and hardly a tool of Russian propaganda but they saw these risks four years BEFORE the war broke out. And the timing is telling - Saakashvili promised to solve the problem by 2009 elections. He really tried to do it.

No offense taken The guy on the video was very bitter that international conspiracy was to turn Aleppo from a Sunni city into a Shia one. In reality it would have been pretty disastrous for the prospects of coming to a kind of peace in future - had looked too much like a religious war. To address this Aleppo should be controlled by Sunnis - no Alawites and no Shia militia. One option is Sunni Kurds, but Turkey must have objected plus I'm not sure what are the relationships between Syrian Arab Sunnis and Kurd Sunnis. Another option is Syrian Turkoman / FSA-labeled groups but here Assad, Iran and Kurds must have objected. Assad and Iran don't like Turkey, for Kurds this will be the the end of their Eastern enclave - Turkoman and Syrian Sunni Arabs would have choked it plus again not sure Turkoman and Syrian Arabs are such good friends So Chechens come handy as they are Sunni but still can guarantee free passage of supplies to Western Kurds. Nope, right now everyone is dancing a very delicate dance - Russia, Turkey, Iran, Assad, Kurds. Assad is the least predictable though sometimes he's actively "motivated" in his unpredictability by Iranians that are using his unpredictability in their dealing with Turkey and Russia. He's and will be trying to carve out as much political future for himself and his family as possible though for Russia it's quite clear he'll need to go at some point of time. But Syrian Sunni Arabs are missing in the equation and they should come in a kind other that Al Qaeda / ISIS and their affiliates (taking the situation on the ground - the best that could be expected is they're renamed and promise to do no bad stuff anymore). So that's why it was so important to listen to grievances of Sunni Arabs and not to let Aleppo fall into Alawites / Shia hands.

Why do you think I put the link to say this was right? Quite the opposite, there's no chance Alawites could ever rule Sunnis. May be they did conspire I guess there was a reason they let neither Shia militia take over the city nor Turkey/FSA. And they needed Chechens as Chechens are Sunni, syncretic but Sunni. So I'd guess partitioning blueprints are on the table.

Not to argue the prison thing. Just an interesting interview with a former head of Aleppo defense. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pJQuXvgyyE The guy hardly mentions Assad at all but is truly sorry Aleppo could turn into Shia city from a Sunni one. And pleads for Sunnis from other countries to come and help kill Alawites. Not Assad.

Steve, I'm glad you did. Actually I was thinking that may be we differ in fundamental approach to the rights and wrongs in regional conflicts. The border of the country and the total control of the central government over all of its citizens is a sacred thing for you. So it justifies even full-blown military action against regional populace and severe loss of human life. For me it's not. At the very least because if peoples feel it to the bone they do not want to live together the next stop the train of a limited "law and order restoration operation" takes is ethnic cleansing. Save for Rwanda-like story I don't buy that chaps in any central government really start out on this path of "limited" military operations with an aim to end up at gallows for crimes against humanity. They just genuinely feel their patriotic duty to bring every piece of land within their imaginary lines on the map under their control. So their logic is there're just 25% of "extremists" in the restive region so we come pacify them and the other 75% falls in line. But as this "limited" military operation starts they end up having to have to deal with full 100% of population against them instead of 25% of "extremists". People just don't stand when someone comes from far away and does bad things to their neighbours and friends of many years. So the "limited" military operation becomes unlimited and the central government starts blaming outside influences. After all it promised a quick and decisive victory that hasn't materialized. So I'm saying that outside influences whether real or imaginary is irrelevant. The problem that the central government has is not with the outside influences its real problem is that people in some region just don't want to live with this government any more and they're ready to fight for this. And the worst thing is that what this region normally wants in the very beginning is inconceivably small in respect to the damage the central government sustains in the end. Back in SOVIET times in 1989 when the conflict started the South Ossetia was an autonomous region within Georgia. All they wanted is to be an autonomous republic WITHIN Georgia. And the SOVIET Georgia responded with barring South Ossetian regional parties from participating in the parliamentary elections and an ever escalating spiral began. So when Saakashvili says Russia artificially created the crisis - it's bull****. Ossetians just do not want to live under Georgian rule and they're ready to fight for it Russia or no Russia. The same with Ukraine. If you remember the conflict started with the newly elected "patriotic" parliament REVOKING the stature of Russian as a regional language in the Eastern Ukraine with a slight majority of 7 representatives of the full 450 member parliament. The country is in the middle of political turmoil of enormous proportions, the population is severely divided in their views and "patriots" try to take away from the people of the East what they already have!? And what was the fight about, was it really so important? It was just the right to use Russian in REGIONAL procedures. And Ukrainian was (and I believe still is) the SECOND language AFTER Russian for everyday use in the WHOLE of Ukraine not just East. So the situation starts to heat up and the "patriotic" battalions are sent to "pacify" people of the East with this attitude of Haiduk - "you fall in line or go live somewhere else". So does Russia somehow "provoke" "patriots" in Parliament to this stupidity? Nope. Now what if you take away weapons from the armed forces of the East? Haiduks will just come across and cleanse the East of the people with the "wrong" attitude. And the cause here is not that the East has arms, the real cause is that the "patriots" of the Western Ukraine truly believe that they're within their rights to come and cleanse the East of the people they consider "unwanted" just because the Western Ukraine currently holds majority in the Parliament. And not so funny thing about Ukrainian situation is that there's still an option to switch to federation from an unitary state. The East will accept and stays in Ukraine. For me trading legalese for human lives - it's an obvious choice. But the Western Ukraine does not want it as these "patriotic" battalions are now "making sure" the rest of the East "falls in line". And if Ukraine turns into federation then "patriotic" battalions have to go home and start productive life instead of "making sure" everyone "loves" the idea of the Greater Ukraine. That's politically unacceptable - they'd rather cleanse population than allow people to do some little things the way they prefer. You can read it in Haiduks replies or you can turn to Ukrainian parliament speeches - nothing is hidden, it's all there. And besides the majority of Ukrainians doesn't want the war to continue (see the poll results provided by Haidek) so if the elections are democratic the current "all-or-nothing" patriots in the Parliament will be kicked-out and moderates will take over. Will Ukraine still be European-oriented? Most probably, yes, as the Central Ukraine wants Europe as well.

It's not exactly matrix but it's Belorussian. And you know what? Ukraine uses the same for "expensive" version of tank upgrades

Paradoxically - both of them are true. Two battalion combat groups were sent to a field camp in North Ossetia 30km from the border - just it was North Ossetia not the South. And they received the orders to move to South Ossetia very late at night on August, 7. Or actually early hours of August, 8 - at 0100. So "the following morning" at 0630 Aug, 8 they were already at Djava, South Ossetia that is halfway from the border to Tskinval. The overall timeline looks like this: Aug, 6, afternoon - Georgian Army is put on high alert Aug, 6 late night - 3rd and 4th Georgian Infantry Brigades are given orders to move to South Ossetia Aug, 7 early morning 0100 - Georgia starts mobilization and the Army starts phoning reservists Aug, 7 early morning - Georgian UAVs are reported crossing into South Ossetia territory Aug, 7 daytime - Georgia starts evacuating Georgian speaking villages Aug, 7 daytime - Georgian military seizes the strategic heights on the disputed territory and starts fortifying them Aug, 7 1545 - Georgia starts to "soften up" defensive positions of South Ossetians with artillery barrages As you may guess it's hard to hide mass calls to reservists and moving two brigades across half the country - everyone has families, friends, relatives. So everything was clear on Aug, 7 morning. But the most telling thing is that those articles went to print much later. The Georgian leadership position was that they based their decision to go to war on "intelligence information". And the only piece of "intelligence" they were able to produce was one intercepted call from South Ossetian border guards. One of them asked the other if the armour passed, the other confirmed. Georgians were able to neither detail to the EU Mission what armour passed or where nor any other evidence of early Russian passage of Roki tunnel, including information from Georgian UAVs that were having a field day as neither South Ossetia nor Russian peacekeepers there nor even the first battalion combat groups had any anti-aircraft assets. Disclaimer: strictly speaking timeline is given by a Russian source. Not propaganda, one of the best if not the best Russian defence analyst with international reputation. And we used to work together many-many years ago But certainly feel free to challenge me. "Intelligence intercept" part should check out with A-list European/US newspapers - it was a big story.

Haiduk, really? So the main factories "are old Belgian and Brittish" dating back to the end of 19th century "only renamed and slightly modernized in 20-30th years of 20th century." Then it would mean that at the end of 19th century Donetsk had population many times more than the current 1.5 mln it has now. Technological processes have not changed much so for the same output you need the same number of people. Percentage of women working at end of 19th century was quite low compared to current, families had many times more children then they have now. I'd put the estimate at 4-6 mln people Probably Paris, Moscow, St. Pete, London and New York combined Beautiful Donetsk of the turn of the century And by the way, would you enlighten us on how they produced turbojet engines at the end of 19th century? 'Cause one of the sizeable factories in Donbass produces / produced compressor blades for the aircraft engines. Well, Haiduk, that's called ethnic cleansing.

If you mean the fire incidents - they were checked. Just as you may guess the Georgians conveniently omitted THEIR bombardments. So after all the incidents were checked the conclusion was that both sides were firing over the line. What other information? That Russian government knew for three months that Georgia wanted to attack? Certainly Russia knew it for even longer - everyone knew. No James Bond tricks to deduce, military spending of 8% of GDP means the country goes to war soon because such level of military spendings are economically detrimental and unsustainable. And what should Russia have done then? You have 500 soldiers armed just with small arms and three old BMP-1 and the only way you can provide reinforcements is through a narrow Roki tunnel. Against 16'000 Georgians with 50 or 60 (don't remember exactly) upgraded T-72 and over a hundred armored troop carriers as it turned out. So what Russia did? It prepositioned two battalion tactical groups of 500 people each within 30-50 km from the Roki tunnel entrance on the RUSSIAN side. I'd call it an example of restraint. The US would bomb the hell out of advancing force without much thinking because those 500 in South Ossetia would be decimated in no time. And if you would like to discuss the position that Russia moved the forces through Roki before Saakashvili started shelling Tskhinval - let's do it. Just let's stick to the exact sources of such information to make the discussion detailed. Because these Georgian arguments were presented to the mission and they found them... Well... How to put it mildly... Unsubstantiated Steve, South Ossetia secession act was adopted by South Ossetian parliament in 1989. It was still Soviet Union - two years till Russia even reappeared on the map. Can you provide the sources for "reflagged" thing? Just not Temuri Yakobashvili He was quite officially the most senior figure responsible for formulating and executing Georgian policy towards Abkhazia and Ossetia after Saakashvili himself. If Mikhail has screwed up big in your opinion then what one can expect Temuri to say? Let's discuss other impartial sources. Because otherwise it will kill the discussion. "They didn't find it but it certainly happened" Please do not take it as offence Who knows? I just prefer to discuss the things with tangible sources if information

If one follows the Saakashvili schedule of communications after the EU mission finished the report then you would notice major countries limited their discussions with him. The reason was the feedback of the mission that the guy is simply dangerous to deal with. He lived in the world of fantasies, you tell him one thing and he heard something else. Alas he is not some simple layman, he had the power to make serious decisions based on what he believed he had heard. He was the President of Georgia so everyone respected that he saw his patriotic duty in uniting his country. But the decision to start a war should be based on cold and inquisitive analysis of the facts. If one starts accepting into the grave equation of life and death the reasons akin to "God told me to end the tyranny in Iraq" (direct quote from George W. Bush) we can be sure it will be a terrible mess for many many years ahead. Here's the quote about Saakashvili from Condolizza Rice memoir (I hope no one believes Condy cuts too much slack to Russia He's proud and can be impulsive, and we all worried that he might allow Moscow to provoke him to use force. In fact, he himself successfully provoked conflict in another breakaway part of the country, Adjara, and benefited when it had been reintegrated into Georgia through domestic and international pressure. The precedent, we feared, might make him think he could get away with a repeat performance in the territories located closer to Putin's beloved Sochi.

Steve, What would happen if one starts making serious policy decisions based on the same quality of information? The US Army is now augmenting forward deployed prepositioned stocks - a well known fact. One causally listens to Rush Limbaugh or reads some crazy article in Breitbart claiming the US is entitled to own half of the world. What should one do then? Put two and two together and start a nuclear war?

I suggest an even better historical argument. In the late 15th century when Kuevan Rus' disintegrated under the pressure of Mongol Invasion Moscow Grand Duchy together with Kingdom of Galicia–Volhynia and Grand Duchy of Lithuania partitioned the territory of Kievan Rus'. Alas, there was no such thing as "Russia" at that moment Steve, these are both produced by the government of Saakashvili, who according to the EU fact finding report started the war. The second document is hosted on a Swiss resource but authored by Temuri Yakobashvili, Georgian State Minister for Reintegration in the Saakashvili Cabinet (Minister for Reintegration - Sic! . Shall you extend the same level of trust if I start quoting Russian official papers? Steve, do you remember the sources for the analysis? It would be interesting to compare as I happen to have the references that Georgia presented to EU fact finding mission. And there was a good reason why they wrote: "The Mission is not in a position to consider as sufficiently substantiated the Georgian claim concerning a large-scale Russian military incursion into South Ossetia before 8 August 2008." If I may quote from the text you've given: "One author suggests that the decision to initiate the war was made in April of 2008 during a crisis in Abkhazia when the Russian air force shot down two Georgian drones that were monitoring Russian peacekeeping forces. If true, the Russian military had at least three months to prepare." So "suggests" and "if true" somehow translates into "clearly shows"? Do we have this level of discussion?

I quote official EU fact finding report not the Russian media. So regarding your statements: In the course of summer 2008, the main focus of tension then shifted from the Georgian-Abkhaz to the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone, triggered by subversive attacks as well as by intensified exchanges of fire between the Georgian and South Ossetian sides, including mortar and heavy artillery fire. Open hostilities began with a large-scale Georgian military operation against the town of Tskhinvali and the surrounding areas, launched in the night of 7 to 8 August 2008. Operations started with a massive Georgian artillery attack. At the very outset of the operation the Commander of the Georgian contingent to the Joint Peacekeeping Forces (JPKF), Brigadier General Mamuka Kurashvili, stated that the operation was aimed at restoring the constitutional order in the territory of South Ossetia. The Georgian allegations of a Russian invasion were supported, inter alia, by claims of illegal entry into South Ossetia of a large number of Russian troops and armour, prior to the commencement of the Georgian operation. [...] The Mission is not in a position to consider as sufficiently substantiated the Georgian claim concerning a large-scale Russian military incursion into South Ossetia before 8 August 2008. Military spending in Georgia under President Saakashvili´s rule increased quickly from below 1 % of GDP to 8 % of GDP, and there were few who did not see this as a message. To me the report says something exactly opposite to your claims. Can you provide some verifications to your allegations?

Haiduk, you see your patriotic duty here in fighting secessionist forces. I mean no irony when I say "patriotic" here. Irrespective of where they get their arms, people of Donbass and Luhansk see their moral duty in protecting their homes with their lives. And reading your words I would say they have every rationale to do so. What I'm trying to say it never hurts to see the facts even through the lense of patriotic duty. What would happen if Ukrainian forces overrun DNR/LNR now? Bloody massacre. Could YOU expect to be able to do so? I believe it's highly improbable. Can DNR/LNR and their sympathizers rationally drive the situation to a total military victory over Ukraine? I hope they don't because by the time it ever comes within grasp it won't be 35% of Ukrainians but rather full 100%. So what was the point in harvesting a new crop of deaths and destruction after so many months of relative calm? Ukrainian actions do not pass points two through six out of full eight of them in Powell Doctrine. And beyond that the attack puts Avdiivka's population and a critical asset of Ukrainian share of Donbass economy in certain danger. However "real Ukrainian patriots" distrust Donbass population even on their side of the line of control for being"Russian sympathizers" they're still your compatriots or at least that's what Ukraine desires. Not to mention here that it's total mess of pulling the tiger's tail with no back-up in case the tiger wakes up. One can rationalize if not approve destructive actions if real life goals are attainable but when they are not... Senseless waste of human lives. Haiduk, I try to limit the intake of "Russian media fairytales" just to minimum minimorum required to understand what's being fed to laymen. It's pretty poisonous and I mean it.

Ukrainian MoD unequivocally stated Ukraine attacked DNR positions. You need a proof link? If you plot the ranges from Avdiivka industrial complex where UKR attacked for "below 100mm heavy weapons" (would be 81mm mortar) all of it would fall within Donetsk. Do you really believe UKR forces expected no response? And once you attack the gears of war kick in on both sides whether above or below 100mm. Like you shoot someone and after he draws his gun to defend you bitterly complain about him having a gun in the hand. You either want a war, you act and expect to be acted upon within the logic of war. Or you want peace, you mind your business then you have every right to cry foul if the other side misbehaves. Not so funny thing is Ukraine wants war quite officially but somehow desires no opposition to the actions. Certainly I wouldn't argue here. Georgia: report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia of the Council of the European Union. Chapter two "The Conflict in Georgia in August 2008": "The shelling of Tskhinvali by the Georgian armed forces during the night of 7 to 8 August 2008 marked the beginning of the large-scale armed conflict in Georgia..." Transnistria: Would you be so kind as to give the national composition of the Transnistria's population vis a vis Moldova's? Specifically the fact that Russians and Ukrainians have almost equal (within two percentage points) share Would you enlighten us on the number of Ukrainian volunteers that fought for Transnistria? How many of them received Transnistria's decorations for the combat valour? What was the role of Ukrainian "radical right organization" UNA-UNSO in fighting for Transnistria? The wording is direct from a U-Penn academic study You may forget but back then it was Ukrainian AND Russian volunteers fighting for Transnistria Nagorny Karabakh: Would you provide your version of events and order of battles? What about current composition of forces of Azerbaijan and Karabakh/Armenia? How "Russian peacekeepers" dominate the military balance now? Because you probably missed but there's no peacekeeping force whatsoever Both Armenia and Azerbaijan oppose nor Russia is eager to come to fray lest it spoils good relations it enjoys with both countries. PS May I charge some educational rates? Coursera's are fine with me

kinophile, I don't buy the point the situation was artificially created by Russia. I've been travelling to Ukraine 4-5 time a year for a decade up to a few months after the hostilities started. Simply because I have so many friends in Ukraine and I believe Kiev the best city to live in. One could feel how hostility between East and West grew year by year. 12 months before Maidan we've been sitting in a restaurant in Kiev and Kievan friends of mine were doing an unpleasant job of emergency planning for their lives and the lives of their families as it was clear that something bad would happen. Nobody knew what specifically but it was clear that some kind of catastrophe is looming. To deduce that one didn't need no information on Russian troops movements along the border. The real answer was in the dynamics of Gross Regional Product per capita and numbers in regular "internal use" polls. Agricultural West was lagging further and further behind industrial East in terms of disposable income. That was giving a false sense of comfort and superiority to the elites of the East while radicalizing the leaders of the West beyond point of no return. Jokes about bad hombres of Mexico good for nothing beyond menial jobs are a locker room truism for the US. But the same grassroots xenophobia was growing in Ukraine. Easterners buying a dozen Westerners by a dime as household hands. Westerners despising the East for not falling in line about the idea of the Great Ukraine. The East and the West were even furthering different economic systems. The Russian speaking belt along the border were beneficiaries of economic cooperation with Russia boosted by the oil boom. While the best hope for the people of the West was to become a Ukrainian "Polish plumber" somewhere in EU. All against the background of failing state finances and the urgent need to have a financial lifeline either from EU or Russia. And whatever side Ukraine chooses half the country would feel betrayed. So tens of thousands of people joining DNR/LNR forces all of a sudden, police and military personnel going over in droves to the secessionist side. Hell the biggest and most capable force of the East at the beginning were the elite Special Forces of the Donetsk branch of the Ukrainian Security Service. That by a pure coincidence acted as a "Household Guard" of the wealthiest Ukrainian oligarch. The person who is a Ukrainian not a Russian oligarch to these days. If you plot the intensity of the hostilities in the very beginning over the map of Ukraine it will match to the point the election numbers of the Yanukovitch party. Those results are still considered valid by all parties so this is the real voice of the people. If a half of the country intensely hate the other half for not being patriotic enough while the latter feel themselves superior due to a higher income that's a certain recipe for disaster. And now what? What if Ukrainian propaganda in an eye blink is left with no "Russian bear" to brandish around? How does one explains the fact IMF and EU are sick and tired of their funds being quickly and conveniently spirited away into murky private coffers the moment the monies travel over the border instead of being truly used to prop up the economy? Sick and tired to the point both EU and IMF do not want to give any more money. That's not Russian propaganda - these are official quotes from IMF and EU representatives. What does one say to the account that Poroshenko travels around Europe and North America in the thick of the fighting asking for pro bona lethal equipment shipments while his very appointee back home sells the best leftover tanks from the Soviet reserves to Nigeria and Ethiopia? Again not a Russian propaganda - these are official facts. What about near fatal standoff in the very center of Kiev between "patriotic battalions" of the most "patriotic" Ukrainian oligarch and Special Forces sent by Ukrainian President over management changes in the Ukrainian state oil monopoly? I'd say "Russian bear" is urgently needed in the internal and external Ukrainian political shop talk at the moment.

Do you believe that Ukrainian forces are shelling Donbass day and night because they believe that 1.5 mln inhabitants living there are actually Russian occupying force? Do I need to provide the links to the photos and videos about the shelling or you've seen them? And if I may quote Haiduk here... If I read correctly: Ukrainian forces are fighting DNR/LNR local militia at least at the moment. The majority of Ukrainians want the end of the war and don't care much about what happens to Donbass. I remember no credible reporting on any rape of significance either on Ukrainian side or DNR/LNR. Have I missed something? What part of Azerbaijan you mean except for the Russian embassy "occupying" a plot of land in Baku? For Moldova - may be you can read more on it? You will find many interesting things there. Like Transnistria secession movement sprang up not because Transnistria has ever belonged to Russia (save possible Russian Empire long ago). Rather it started because Transnistria historically belonged to Ukraine and was given to Moldovan SSR only after the WWII. One of the most active "patriotic" organization that now fights on the Ukrainian side in the Donbass and Luhansk - UNA-UNSO - fought FOR Transnistrian independence and AGAINST Moldovan forces. The 14th Guards Army of USSR that you probably call "Russian forces" was mostly made up of local citizens. I say USSR because the conflict started before the dissolution of Soviet Union and before Russia has even reappeared on the map. So in a sense it was 14th Guards Army of Moldova if you use official name of the republic it belonged to. For Georgia it's even stranger - there's quite an official internationally recognized sequence of events.

Why? It can be answered. 12.5 million Sunni Arabs want to rule the land since they are the majority within the current borders. 1.6 mln Kurds and about a million Turkoman want their own corner of the country. Ruling two million minority does not want to share the spoils of power they're used to. Half a million Christians of all creeds face a certain annihilation should Alawites go down so they join the fight on their side. The sons of Ibn Saud has been clamouring for Shia's blood for centuries so they happily start financing ISIS. Now pious Western disciples of black-and-white worldview come to fray but all of a sudden they find the simple concept of harsh dictators and diligent populace crying for democracy does not exactly match the situation. The most democratically righteous way to overthrow the dictator inevitably leads to mass beheadings. And to fight against the modern barbarism means to put up with the very dictator they came to topple. They remember how they briefly met quite likable and well-mannered chaps of the Sunni descent but it turns out these people speak just for a tiny sliver of few thousand souls with modern education in a country of 18 millions. And "...30-35% wants military resolving, but exactly this part of society is most active" to quote from Haiduk. Just in case of Syria these 30-35% consider themselves living in the Middle Ages so military resolving means beheadings in their case. Does it look like an accurate enough description of Syria? Has black-and-white worldview brought desired outcomes in Libya or Iraq? And we've touched the mere surface: Sunni is just a generic term, the real force that's driving the action is the tribal structure. It was laughable when State Department promised to separate Nusra, Daesh et al. from "democratic opposition" within a week. It seems the guys base their decisions on a two slide Powerpoint Executive Summaries. They firmly believe in their ability of getting rid of the legacy of centuries within a week. PS Certainly in no way I suggest to equate ISIS and the situation in Donbass/Luhansk.

Haiduk, that's exactly the nationalistic hysteria that is so dangerous. They are just people irrespective of which side of the line of control they live. With such an attitude it may well end up being Israeli-Palestinian story rather than Transnistria one. Transnistria may stage a military parade of their armed forces once a year but in reality of everyday life it's part of Moldova. People live on one side and go work across the line of contact. Transnistria economy is strongly intertwined with Moldovan and both sides reap the benefits. Hell as Moldovan wedding is quite large it's quite common to have banquets in Transnistria just to save money. And I'm not talking about laymen but Moldovan elite.

Steve's analysis is wrong as it oversimplifies the situation by looking at it as if it were a Combat Mission scenario. And it is not. At some point of time I had a chance to talk to many of Donbass people having had an impression beforehand that Russian propaganda distorts the picture. But it is not. Whatever beliefs people on the Donbass side had before it all started they now hate the guts of pro-Ukrainian "patriotic" forces. They're hard to blame for it as their houses were being destroyed and relatives killed for many months. You should understand the way Ukraine actually works. By the letter of law it's a unitary state but in reality it's a loose union of regions. People feel more attached to their region rather than to someone sitting in Kiev. It works both ways - when Yanukovitch was in power in reality he had very little if any influence in the Western Ukraine. And when the Western/Central Ukraine overthrew Yanukovitch the situation just reversed. That's why there were immediate mass defection in the army and police in the East and official Ukrainian Armed Forces showed so little fighting spirit. Professional soldiers just did not want to saw death and destruction to someone else's land. That's why these "patriotic" battalions were raised in the Western and Central Ukraine and sent to fight on the East. Professional Ukrainian soldiers just were not brainwashed to do someone else's bloody bidding. But that was the thing of the past. The reality of today is that if Ukrainian "patriotic" battalions somehow all of a sudden take over Donetsk and Luhansk there will be mass cleanings and displacement and guerilla warfare . It's not a trait unique to one side - if DPR/LPR hotheads are let loose in the Central Ukraine the same scenario will happen. Because it's a civil war where each side hates the other death. Whatever was in the past the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield even if military balance was in favour of Ukraine. E.g. the line of contact is pretty long so Ukrainian forces may have chosen less populated areas to start infighting. It may be shown just the same way in the media. But they deliberately started shelling the most populous metropolis in Donbass with well over one million inhabitants. It was a well calculated move as death and destruction in Donetsk will elicit the most emotional and violent reaction from the East. After all if you're a Donbass fighter what would you do if a friend of yours of many years is killed or the house of your parents is destroyed. So until the politics is ruled by people living in the world of imaginary lines on the map rather than well being of the people living around either side of the front the killings will continue.

Haiduk, I did the same so we're even in terms of effort put into it I'm terribly sorry for putting your post in doubt without checking out all available information beforehand

No, I'm not Checked other sources for sat/location pics. Haiduk was right - I was wrong