IMHO

The important things are (in my opinion): A closely connected chain of events: change of Ukrainian tactics, coal blockade, DNR/LNR stopping paying taxes to Ukrainian budget (yes, they have paid so far ), DNR/LNR taking over Ukrainian-controlled businesses on their territory (everything of sensible size was even operationally managed by UKR side ) Change of Ukrainian olygarch power map and its reflection in Ukrainian political landscape. Deterioriation of economical situation as the Ukrainian blockade hits Ukraine itself at least as hard as DNR/LNR if not harder. Possibility of new/early elections and, obviously, the idea of resuming war being more popular among both elites and populace. Possibility of ad hoc cut offs of water/electricity supplies etc. Whoever starts - it might be reciprocal. Point 1 is happening right now. Main loosers are Eastern Ukrainian originating olygarchs plus Poroshenko.

Firstly Haiduk posts are accurate in my opinion though quite selective. Secondly, there are certain places online where one can read in real time what's going on - local residents on both sides of the line warn each other about shelling and attacks so people on the other side can run for cover. You watch these sources and you see someone reporting an outgoing salvo, then in a minute or two you see a post about where it landed. And these sources are very accurate - way better than OSCE save bull**** from either side. Locals can now differentiate full pack of Grad from half-a-pack, guns and mortars down to caliber etc. So you may try to go on and on reading the stuff but it really has no significance whether it's gonna be five shells from UKR vs. three shells from DNR today or the other way around. It may sound cruel but actually watching it unfolding in real time is quite boring. But if you want something, I can add some stuff to the story of Donetsk Water-purification Station A little background: as I said before the economy and everyday life of Donbass is intertwined irrespective of the line of control. There is a Donetsk water purification station that supplies potable water to Donetsk (DNR) AND Mariupol (Ukraine). The station stands in a no man's land and contains few tons of chlorine so the mutual agreement was no side occupies the station itself as it may end up literally in little chemical war. In accordance with the latest strategy Ukrainian side decided to move in the no man's land and occupy the station. Certainly it ended in a huge fuss - DNR claiming nazis are on the march , Ukraine's pretending it does't know whose people are there, OSCE and Two-Party Commission running crazy knowing the consequences There's a guy named Khodakovsky - a former head of Donetsk branch of Ukrainian Secret Service Special Forces. Now him and his men are all in DNR but he had personal differences with Zakharchenko (Head of DNR) so he speaks quite a lot lately. His men are manning the DNR line at the Station. So according to him the truth is somewhere in the middle beween DNR and UKR versions. Ukrainian "patriotic" battalion put an HMG on the Station and started shooting at DNR positions. Add some sporadic mortar fire from Ukrainian side but nothing really threatening. Though officially deemed a no-man's land the station is deep inside Ukrainian position and the agreement was UKR could have positions close enough to fire-control the station just in case. Now come many days of frantic negotiations, OSCE and Two-Party Commission involved just to persuade the stupid people to remove single HMG. They were shooting from HMG nest for two or three days they moved away. No major military threat to DNR positions, no "en-masse" attack from UKR as advertised by DNR... May be intentional provocation but may well be sheer stupidity... You see every time I'll post something like this I have to type a lot just to provide even simplest background on sources or local tactical situation I type a lot and the result is more or less the same as it was before. It does not really matter whether PFC Onyschenko shot SGT Danilyuk this time or the other way around. There are tectonic shifts happening as we speak but they are not on the front lines. PS @Haiduk, please comment on Water Purification Station - I have not done multiple checks this time, so could be wrong somewhere...

Just as a morning joke - please go no further... There's such a thing as Ukrainian Special Anticorruption Bureau - modelled after FBI at the insistence of EU/IMF. The Bureau opened a case of a theft of over 100 mln USD from the Ukrainian state budget. The case is opened against a number of MPs and high-placed officials and one of the latter is the Head if the State Tax Service (yes, the very very head of it ) According to Ukrainian law when a case is opened the next legal action is to present the person under suspicion with a notice. So the Tax Service guy checked into a hospital and the Ukrainian Anticorruption Bureau was not able to deliver the notice as they were stopped by a duty nurse. She said those were not the visitation hours at the time http://112.ua/obshchestvo/pravoohraniteli-ne-smogli-popast-na-territorii-feofanii-chtoby-soobshhit-nasirovu-o-podozrenii-375478.html PS The article says they were able to get into the hospital premises after some time but does not say if they delivered the notice - probably the guy was healed miraculously and left the hospital Again, don't want to go no further - just had a good laugh this morning.

@Battlefront.com, Steve would you mind shedding some light on how your numerous and elaborate posts of "Ukraine - good, Russia - bad, very bad!" relate to the "actual situation on the fronts" - the limit you set for what's acceptable and what's not here? Are you not about to ban yourself very soon?

Steve, may I lay my arms, may I not? What can possibly better the future in judging rights from wrongs?

@kinophile, sorry for being somewhat rude but I'm bloody tired of "Ukrainian" side that does not know their own exports and imports at the level of specific production factories, assembly chains, debt/financing etc. So it ends up like the "Georgian discussion". Provable and verifiable details vs. political slogans

Oh yes? Please detail the national interests of Ukraine. But the real interests - not baseless political slogans - at detailed level. But let's have a really interesting discussion at the level of customs codes for exports and imports, corporate/state debt etc. Because otherwise it's like Greece's wishful thinking - high pensions, high state-paid salaries and EU pays for all of it.

@Battlefront.com, Steve, that's the major problem with the discussion here. You try to keep it to the world of moral rights and wrongs even to the point of banning people. Whereas such a theoretical discussion exists purely in a dreamworld of computer simulation. In real life there's little place for it either in high politics or even at a level of a battalion facing an opposite battalion. Because yes, in real life, you either weild a baseball bat and you have a nation's given responsibility to make the most of it or you're standing in a dark lit corner facing guys with baseball bats and you have to provide them the reason not to hit you. Even if you're given a bat the real life stakes of a nation are high - there's no place for squandering your higher hand for abstractions.

@kinophile, yepp his evaluations is absolutely correct. I have mine that differs in details but leaving the details - it's the same. But the question is there a way to end the end war,@Haiduk?

@Battlefront.com Steve, if I studiously avoid commenting on some topic, may be there's a serious reason why I do this? And may be that's not because I'm a retarded zombie-bot? May be someone else can do the analysis of DNR/LNR/Russia side? Nah, it comes back to Georgia route We could have had an extremely detailed discussion both on Georgian and even Russian side

Old news for practically any CIS country Nope, my (perhaps) too ambitions goal was/is to show how quite real military decisions become the product of internal Ukrainian political and business dynamics. And I honestly believe that might be of interest to the audience. But it's a process that takes multiple steps and I inevitably have to beauty-parade the political part as well - beliefs of different groups of people inside Ukraine, how they make the grass root audience of political parties, how political parties connect to business sponsors and what military views politicians and oligarchs have at the moment. First step of the process was/is to show with verifiable sources that Ukrainian population, politicians and regions are not copycat poster clones as they look in the press. They have different views and aspirations and that's normal as Ukraine is a large country. Sometimes those are far apart and quite extreme but that's the reality of it. But it has nothing to do with the blame game - whatever happened has happened and that's the future that is interesting.

@Battlefront.com, don't be tempted Anyway I guess any post of mine may be the last one now So do I understand correctly that what's within limits is when politics affects battlefield situation, orders or strategy? Like "talking about how Ukrainian state corruption is impacting the war being fought against Russia is acceptable as long as it is tied to the impact on the battlefield"? So if there's a logic then I can still post? Is it limited to corruption only or local sentiments, economic and business (local or not) etc. will do? Interviews with Ukrainian commanders may be? PS I believe can hardly be accused of impoliteness and I don't have an agenda - views are not an agenda. I post verbatim translations and I don't post "fake news". I stick to Ukrainian sources, attach proofs and they are all verifiable.

Petro Poroshenko gave the mayor's card to the guy. I just translated his words so if he denigrates Ukraine may be he should be court-martialled? I shortened his title to "mayor" but officially he's an acting serviceman and the "Head of Military-Civil Administration" of a town 30km from Donetsk. You can see his uniform and service or unit insignia on the photo (but not the rank ). Basically he commands a chunk of rearward area in immediate vicinity to the front line. I believe it is important to know what these people think. Since he received the appointment from the President in person my guess is he's senior enough in rank. You assume that I somehow try to imply every Ukrainian has the same mindset. In no way I do so but this thinking spreads by the day and that's really really alarming PS All the facts given in this reply are taken from the interview

An interview with a mayor of Krasnogorovka township of about 10'000 people in Ukrainian controlled part of Donbass. The mayor - a retired officer - was mobilized into service and after one year sent by Administration of the Ukrainian President over 600km to rule the town. The reason a mayor could not have been selected from among the locals - save simply elected by them - is the whole populace is considered "disloyal". The text is very telling because the guy seems to be a regular layman - not a hot-head far right - he's honestly trying to improve the life of the town. Yet it gives away the level of xenophobia and distrust to ALL the population of the Eastern Ukraine whether they live in DNR/LNR or under Ukrainian control. One may ask why such an interview appears in Ukrainian press in the first place. And the answer is the ideas that the guy is giving are now quite mainstream in Ukrainian society so the editors honestly saw nothing "special" about the text. Here are the quotes to illustrate but the text is quite long and covers many other interesting topics - the guys personal story, life in the frontline town etc. I guess Google Translate can help... https://m.online.ua/news/762933/ "When I came to town I was met by a Deputy Mayor for Social Service. I fired her after some time by the way. For separatist thinking... But she welcomed me back then - she knew locals as she had worked here before. She was helping me for about three months, helped to hire people - I needed someone who knew land parcels and worked here before, other people like him..." "We have here pro-Ukraine people as well. We do. But for the whole town I know may be 50 who are for Ukraine. Out of ten thousands..." "We need to reform them [locals]. Our security services are not functioning well. Here [in Donbass] we need to make people love Ukraine by force." "Headmaster of one of my schools said they're being bombarded because of our [Ukrainian] soldiers. I made her write an official statement that she does not think so. She wrote but I read it and didn't find anywhere in the text that she hates Zakharchenko [Head of DNR] and he's responsible for the war. So I made her rewrite it and in twenty minutes she brought back "Long live Ukraine!". Then to amend her transgressions I made march around with the Ukrainian flag. She's a separatist, you know. With convictions. So her frayed nerves could not stand it - she quit in the end" [comment: the only jobs in the frontline small towns zone are state-paid job so the women probably quit to literal starvation] "They feel offended as I call them all separatists. I'm saying - am I wrong? I was not the one who went to [DNR independence] referendum - you went! Did you have a bad living before the referendum? You earned more than I did at Sumy [his hometown]. A haircut at Sumy costed 100 grivnahs, yours - 300, so you had money to pay for it. And the houses you own are much more expensive than I have at Sumy" "Here [at Donbass] we have an unnaturally high percentage of retarded population. Just have a look at statistics - how many great writers, artists, actors were born at Donetsk? Very few and if you look at percents most of such people come from Western Ukraine [... he states the numbers by region]. Eastern Ukraine is a neutral zone between two states where outcasts and criminals were sent. And you cannot change their genes, genes define many things so now we have this gene pool here. It should be removed, watered down. It's cruel but we have to look at the things realistically" "Q - What should be done with the people who attended [DNR independence] referendum? A - They should be uncovered and put to prison. Through courts but for that we need to make the laws impartial. Then put them to trial, all of them. Some should get prison time, some - suspended sentence, but they should remember this in centuries." The answers were certainly selected to illustrate what he thinks about the populace he was sent to rule. But from the rest of the text he's really trying to make the life of a frontline city easier so the guy is no monster. But it's horrible how often the mindset is now across the line of everyday nationalism or even racism.

@Battlefront.com, Thanks for such an elaborate answer. I'd even say sometimes one may not say how true the words could be, unfortunately...

Your translation is quite correct. UAF does not want to call UAF's actions "an attack". Their version of events is given in the preceding two paragraphs: "A unit operating in Kherson region and belonging to Southern command was entrenching their positions as per the order of its commander. During the process some representatives of an illegal armed formation bearing maximum amount of weapons [that's the wording in the text] arrived at the unit's combat positions. Representatives of the illegal armed formation were apprehended and disarmed." UAF press release does not state where exactly those were disarmed but attack on the camp is confirmed by multiple sources. The attack is not a full blown military operation with artillery barrages, CAS and stuff but I don't know what word to use to accurately describe an army battalion using an APC to force entry into the camp of a well armed adversary. There're some reports of one KIA and one WIA but they are not universally confirmed so take them as they are. All sources are Ukrainian, and identity of the commander of the battalion in the video where he excuses for... ummm... apprehension and disarmament of illegal armed formation is not questioned.

http://uapress.info/ru/news/show/161682 Press release of the Tartar Battalion "Feb,12 about 20:00, uniformed armed man seized the base of Crimean tartar battalion positioned at Chongar settlement of Kherson region. They used APC to smash the fence of the encampment..." I don't understand how your words contradict to what I said - armed illegal groups that take no orders from official armed forces of Ukraine. About your term "checking civil transport"... Here are the weapons taken from people who do peaceful transport checking Claymore mine MON50 - 6pcs, AGL AGS - 1 pc, RPG7V - 1pc, RPG grenades - 30pcs, RPG-17 - 38pcs, MG PK - 1pc, GP and VOG grenades for underbarrel GL - 112pcs, AKS-74 - 8pcs, SVD - 3pcs, M16 - 1pc, 5.45 ammo - 17277pcs, 7.62 ammo - 3360pcs. Pics: Tartar battalion at its camp... Please do not attribute to me the words I've never said. As per the uncontrolled... https://youtu.be/HeFFyxPeEkI Feb, 22 Former head of Azov battalion promises in Ukrainan Parliament "We - Ukrainian nationalists - unite our forces to stand up to an armed occupation from the East and financial dictatorship of the West. But, first of all, we unite to destroy the regime of today that's called Ukrainian only by mistake." https://youtu.be/vRoGuPQlv4Y Feb, 19 A dangerous/aggressive - you choose - demonstration of Far-right "Pravy Sector" to stop coal trading with DNR/LNR. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11734520/Ukrainian-forces-surround-nationalist-militia-following-deadly-attack-in-western-Ukraine.html - Armed fighting of 2015 between Right Sector and Ukrainian law enforcements, that time it was not about coal but about cigarette smuggling from EU (not my words - Ukrainian MP). And in principle... I'm not trolling - I truly harbour not a glimmer of hope to change anyone's opinion on what happened back then. And I certainly do not want to slight the feelings of simple Ukrainians - they are clear and quite understandable. I just hope it may somehow show that front line fightings are just a part of more complex picture.

Steve, really thanks a lot - a truly interesting view. There's one thing I was always interested in but could never grasp - why Russia occupies such a disproportionate role in minds of US policymakers and in the public politics? I mean economy is six times smaller than US' and well on the way to loose its share of world GDP. With all due respect to the Russian military but they are far cry from US Armed Forces due to obvious economic reasons. Like if one makes a comparison to China - bigger economy even now and will be seriously larger than US' in 10 years. Military force will be comparable if not more potent in 10-15 years. At least one conflict with a clear route into a full-blown military confrontation and no political compromise to it in sight (God forbids!). Some more points of contention will spring up as China military grows more confident. Assertive if not aggressive behaviour that cannot be avoided due to internal politics of China. Surely US takes some military steps but the danger is not quite articulated to the public. Interesting...

It's all accurate and with proofs from UKR side - otherwise I'd been corrected by Haiduk or kinophile. Another very telling incident you cannot find in Western media. An armed group of Crimean Tartars attacked 34th battalion of 57th brigade of Ukranian Armed Forces on Feb, 13. UKR Armed Forces ran over their camp in retaliation, confiscated weapons (including MGs and RPGs) and UKR Armed Forces issued an OFFICIAL statement about an illegal group disarmed. Now brace yourself... The next day the major of Ukrainian Army who commands 34th battalion is officially filmed issuing an apology for confiscating illegal weapons and, obviously, returns them Crimean Tartar "patriotic battalion" is still absolutely officially illegal in UKR and refuses to take orders from any branch of UKR armed forces but is allowed to operate at will So as I said before, if one just had to speak to Petro Poroshenko and UKR Armed Forces - it will be over in a day. The problem is UKR frontlines are more like Lybia or Syrian Sunni rebels - every guy with as much as a handful of armed men has his own political agenda, the idea of when to shoot and when not, the way to collect "grassroots" levies to feed his men etc. Proofs (all UKR sources - google translate may help): UKR Armed Forces statement: https://www.unian.net/society/1773696-v-vsu-prokommentirovali-zahvat-bazyi-kryimskotatarskogo-batalona-vblizi-kryima.html UKR Major apologizing https://youtu.be/oXLfNZtP2nk

Nope, you're all wrong Putin came to power at 2000. This account was registered at 2000. How could you miss such an obvious coincidence! I'm Vladimir Vladimirovich himself PS @Ashez, boo... Be polite, please

May we come back one step? I mean Haiduk's reporting was obviously interesting for many people here. Just we're worlds apart on the topic so each time it moves from the field of war into the realm of politics it inflames emotions On both sides PS But to be honest I just wanna save on rent

Heh... An interesting turn of events with Nadezhda Savchenko who is an Ukranian MP She was allowed to visit UKR POWs on DNR side. Compiled a list of POWs for the exchange, inspected two POWs camps - said one was good, the other - terrible. Voila, a case of high treason is opened against her. I remember the words about people in need of "mind-cleansing"...

So do I understand correctly that your point is the tanks sold were of inferior quality to whatever equipment UKR forces were trying to put to use in those times so there was no place for them on frontlines? Do you mean what was requested or what was received? And speaking of "propaganda" we can go over UKR TV fabulous reporting on how UKR army is getting better and better by the day then match it against the state budget appropriations and what UKR army ACTUALLY gets in the end So that EU/US would better understand why Ukrainian weapons "moguls" need so many state-paid foreign travels while the country is allegedly in a state of war Or and by the way it might be of interest to passers-by that DNR/LNR while valiantly fighting UKR forces still continue to pay taxes to UKRAINIAN budget from economic activity on their territories

@DMS, What's the point of arguing? Better focus on way more telling facts than the fate of one schoolhouse. Like Petro Poroshenko official speech that UKR should continue paying DNR/LNR for the coal mines production (should be to the tune of tens if not hundreds millions USD p.a.). Quite an obvious approach: UKR asks EU/US to prop up its fragile economy with their taxpayers monies then pays to DNR/LNR to go on with the war - everyone's profiting Or an influential Assistant Head of Administration of Ukraine Arms Export Monopoly appoints his brother as the head of the biggest tank production facility. The Administration is officially responsible for evaluating performance of subordinate business units so it's logical one brother would give most honest evaluation to the other Especially if one looks at how successful this bunch of guys were at rebuilding UKR military industry what in their case amounted to selling the best of Soviet tank leftovers to Africa right in the middle of most intense fighting Just at the time UKR was pleading to EU/US for free-of-charge military equipment deliveries. Again quite logical - UKR profits from selling its own equipment, EU/US pay for replenishment. Show must go on!

I don't read Arabic so propaganda messages miss the point