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Joachim

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Posts posted by Joachim

    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Pyewacket:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Example 1: We're firing with an extremely accurate gun.

    oops Dschugaschwili. You're faster...

    I have no idea what you're doing there, but the result (if it's right) is great. Is this the prove for:

    if you miss the center of hull up , there's a chance to hit the tanks outer part. If you miss the center of a hull down you hit nothing. right? </font>

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    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Pyewacket assumed a certain hit on a hull up tank.

    The turret is 1/3 of the hull up tank.

    For a hull down tank, the turret is 3/4 while the visible upper hull is 1/4, so it is 1/9 of the total tank thus we have 1/3 plus 1/9 = 4/9 of total. oops... a hull down tank has only 4/9 visible compared to a hull up tank. Somehow I guestimated at 1/2... it's getting late over here

    Short version:

    If you hit a target of size 9 with a probability of 100%, why should you hit a target of size 4 with only 1/3 probability?

    First guestimate would be you hit it with at least a prob of 4/9.

    Long version:

    For a uniform distribution, if 4/9 of a tank are visible, the probability to hit those 4/9 should be at least 4/9 if before we had a hit prob of 100%. So for a distribution which puts higher probability on a small area, this should hold, too, if we select a "good" aim point aka center of the 2d normal distribution.

    If the prob to hit the turrret for a hull down tank is less than those 4/9, the aim point is chosen poorly (-> bad gunner).

    If the aim point is chosen well, we have at least a prob of 4/9 to hit the tank.

    The example for a hull-down tank gets:

    hit prob upper hull >= 1/4 upper hull * 4/9 = 1/9

    hit prob turret >= 3/4 turret * 4/9 = 1/3

    And we hit the turret at least as often as before...

    Gruß

    Joachim

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    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Though Thor presents some interesting points, I have to point out that Jens/pyewacket's model does not fit to Dschugaschwilis assumption.

    e is fully visible

    The 1/3 factor actually states that hitting the upper parts of the tank in hull down-mode is 1/3 while the tanks is still half exposed. Not very convincing:

    As the Bell curve modelling the hit prob is dependent on distance, gun type, ammo etc. and we will assume the classic "ceteris paribus" approach, the "bell" we move across the picture of the tank is the same in both cases.

    The perfect aim point will maximize the volume of the bell over the upper parts of the tank, and thus at least increase the hit probability for those parts - which was 1/2 in the hull up example.

    So to get a hit prob of 1/3 for a hull down tank, one hat to use a less than optimal hit point. This might make sense when aiming for weak points, but CM does not model aiming for weak points.

    Aiming for center of mass, however, will at least increase the hit prob for a compact target.

    Thus we can assume that D's sentence holds for a gunner with basic training.

    @pyewacket:

    A good approx for the hit porb is given in CM when you target the tank :D - see referenced thread in CMAK forum above.

    Gruß

    Joachim

    1/6 lower hull * 1,0 = 1/6

    1/2 upper hull * 1,0 = 1/2

    1/3 turret * 1,0 = 1/3

    For a hull-down tank:

    1/4 upper hull * 1/3 = 1/12

    3/4 turret * 1/3 = 1/4

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    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Dschugaschwili:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Joachim:

    Not to mention that this simple model has the drawback of being one-dimensional... but it delivers the message.

    In 2d the mathematical model is much more complicated and much harder to understand, mostly because the standard deviations are usually different for both dimensions and the shape of the target area is a problem, too.

    But the hit chance still goes down when you move the target away from the aim point in a straight line, so the model is still valid for our purposes.

    Dschugaschwili </font>

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    Congrats to Michael Emrys and CMPlayer!!!!

    in Combat Mission: Afrika Korps

    Posted

    Originally posted by Michael Dorosh:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by YK2:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by WWB:

    Dorosh, how wrong we are. That list is flawed. You have 13,000, putting you on top. And I would have made number four.

    WWB

    Now stands at...

    Top Posters

    Michael Dorosh - 13236 posts

    Michael Emrys - 10602 posts

    CMplayer - 6420 posts

    Soddball - 5190 posts

    Boo Radley - 4104 posts </font>

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    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Dschugaschwili:

    I feared that somebody would ask me to come up with the mathematical model, so here we go:

    Assumptions:

    1. The shot distribution is a normal distribution around the aim point (in other words, shaped like a bell curve).

    2. I'll ignore shot spread left-to-right and only look at the spread in up-down direction. (This shouldn't be a problem since the different plates are located above each other)

    There's a certain problem with the analysis because there seems to be no closed formula for the integral of exp(-x^2), which would be needed to calculate the exact values.

    But no matter. What we want is the probability of hitting a plate with a certain size (height) that is located at a certain distance (center) from the aim point (zero). This would translate into the above integral from (center - 0.5*height) to (center + 0.5*height). As mentioned above, getting the exact values isn't really possible, but we can use a table with percentiles for the normal distribution that can be found in every statistics book to approximate. We just have to take the difference between the percentiles for two values that are (height) apart from each other to get the chance of hitting a spot between both edges. That's the hit chance against a plate with size (height).

    You can do a couple of example tries, and you'll see that the hit chance against a certain plate decreases the farther the center of the plate is from the mean value of the distribution (the aim point).

    When you look at a bell curve, you can see the reason for it (remember, the area under a part of the curve is your hit chance), but I'll leave this as an exercise for the reader. smile.gif

    In gunnery terms, it's exactly what I wrote in my last post: the closer you place the aim point to the center of the target (or the closer you place the target to the aim point), the higher your chance of hitting it.

    Dschugaschwili

    PS: I'm quite busy right now, so replies from me can take some time.

    Not to mention that this simple model has the drawback of being one-dimensional... but it delivers the message.

    Project the visible parts of a tank on a (huge :D ) piece of paper. Form a bell from the function of a two-dimensional normal distribution modelling the hit porb. Yes, this looks like a real bell put on the paper

    Now the likelihood to hit the tank is the volume of that bell that is above the outlines of the tank in relation to the volume that is outside the boundaries of the tank. The likelihood to hit a certain part is the relation of the volume above that part in relation to the rest. The center of the bell is the aim point.

    Gruß

    Joachim

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    Recently, somewhere South of Kharkov

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Joachim:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Michael Emrys:

    Okay, I'll cop to it, I'm confuzzled. If Andreas is playing against Sergei, who is Joachim playing against?

    I blame it all on Seanachai.

    Michael

    On what?

    Maybe this quote from above will help you a bit...

    Get your workers to do some work on other battlefields.
    I asked Andreas to actually do something in another battle, where we have only 111 turns left and he did not fire a single shot yet. If his troops are half as good as he claims, they should start wasting some ammo and not hide in their holes like the cowards they are.

    It would be very unsporting to only taunt my enemy's enemy and not taunt my enemy's enemy's enemy.

    Oh, I forgot - it was you who always tries to avoid being fair, wasn't it? So you might not understand the concept due to missing practice.

    Gruß

    Joachim </font>

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    Night Fighting

    in Combat Mission - Tips and Tricks

    Posted

    Originally posted by Slappy:

    All true. What wasn't pointed out is that you probably don't want to bunch up a whole company at night. I know it's tempting to stick together when LOS is tight, but it can be deadly as your example demonstrates. Suppressive fire is much more effective at night, making proper scouting and spacing that much more important.

    Proper scouting in 50 viz is tough... expect your scouts getting slaughtered while overwatch is out of sight... or in the kill zone if too close. Results in dead scouts, sound contacts only, and if the defender withdraws quickly, you know nothing despite some dead scouts.

    With proper spacing you lack the necessary attacker odds if the defender chooses to fight it out. If you converge piecemeal, you are dead.

    Converging itself risks lots of friendly fire.

    Best for attacking at night is to be the strategic attacker but tactical defender. IE try to break thru in a small corridor, leave listening posts on your trail, cutting the defenders forces in half and force the defender to move (best thru territory unobserved by him)... then he has exactly the same problems as you.

    Gruß

    Joachim

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    Night Fighting

    in Combat Mission - Tips and Tricks

    Posted

    The sound of distant shots is enough to make men take cover. Any moving shadow at max viz might be the enemy. Any contact will be on short ranges, with high firepower. Would you want to stroll along with a SMG-heavy squad 50m away? Even if they are friendlies - do they know you are friendly? It is just like moving along a city street... but without any support.

    Attacking at 50m viz is tough. Same goes for your counterattacks - if you ever need any :D

    Night fighting saw the highest kill stats for squads I ever had (vs the AI): 100+ per squad for a whole plt... and I started with 40% ammo. Night combat is deadly in CM... so the pixeltruppen should be afraid of it!

    Gruß

    Joachim

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    Pz IV tactics?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Bone_Vulture:

    Wasn't there a consensus some time ago that there's always a base chance of hitting the turret, even when the tank is fully exposed? Meaníng that the after the hit probability you see, there's a fixed probability that the damage is dealt to the turret, even when the hull would be an easier target?

    Basically, this would mean that it is just as likely that the any scored hit will land on the turret, whether the tank is hull down or up.

    Tests regarding this in the thread I mentioned above suggest that hull down tanks receive more turret hits. Data posted on the hit probabilities support that claim.

    Under certain conditions a PzIV lasts longer when hull up.

    Gruß

    Joachim

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    Congrats to Michael Emrys and CMPlayer!!!!

    in Combat Mission: Afrika Korps

    Posted

    Originally posted by JasonC:

    Well I am sure those are wrong, but it says I have 2874, slightly over the number you had for Treeburst. There were some old ones under my previous username, which I had to change because it was too long. Not in the 10k league, though. Long screed - 1, short pithy peng insult - 1...

    Now if they would measure the length of all postings instead of the numbers... :D

    Gruß

    Joachim

    0

    Integrating indirect fires

    in Combat Mission - Tips and Tricks

    Posted

    Originally posted by Adam_L:

    Take the risk and include the FO with your maneuver elements. Just be cautious enough with him -- let your squads have a safe boundary ahead of him and don't move him in the open if fire will likely be taken. Works best with radios. Also keep calling fire on the next bit of possibly occupied terrain, so that it will start to fall just as you engage. You can always cancel it before much falls if the enemy isn't there.

    If you move him, make sure he is not the only unit moving in the area. Pack him with the second wave or the main body if you use many scouts.

    Guess who's that loner moving onto that hill...

    Gruß

    Joachim

    0

    Area fire gamey?

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by nevermind:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Glider:

    </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by nevermind:

    Glider,

    You're talking about selecting your tank and then hitting shift-V and then area targeting under the enemy tank,with your tanks main gun,right?

    No, I am talking about an enemy tank that your tanks cannot see, but they can see a point few meters from it.

    So you fire at that point with HE ammo, hoping that the blasts will damage the gun or tracks.

    Not very effective though, out of 20-25 tanks I destroyed only 2 have been damaged that way. </font>

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    HQ Leadership???

    in Combat Mission: Barbarossa to Berlin

    Posted

    Originally posted by Bone_Vulture:

    All I know is that the combat skill bonus improves the firepower value of any small arms unit under the HQ's command, I've never witnessed it improving the performance of other field units.

    Although there is a point there: an HQ with a stealth or morale bonus will become extremely handy when you want to insure the performance of field guns and mortars under fire.

    Thought that a combat bonus für ATGs or IGs increases their to-hit-chance, their ROF and reduces setup time, as they act one or two exp. levels up.

    For mortars, this should result in a closer shot pattern and a higher ROF - but I never checked for that.

    The decision to put Co HQs to the rear or behind the frontline troops depends on circumstances.

    But if you have Plt HQs from wpns plts, it is usually better to use them in the rear or in command of hvy wpns following the advance and use the Co HQ for rallying only.

    If just behind the advance, the Co HQ is a good reserve group - paired with a few "4th" squads, pioneer teams or any squad falling behind.

    Gruß

    Joachim

    [ February 17, 2004, 10:22 AM: Message edited by: Joachim ]

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