Offshoot

RE the discussion about countering Russian GPS jammers, it looks like the US is going to try GPS jam seekers on JDAMs, though work won't be completed for over a year - https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/3765102/

This would depend on whether you twice the 50,000 or twice the twice for 200,000. Quibbling aside, I assumed the interviewee is a non-native English speaker and really meant "twice as much". If he indeed meant 150,000, "twice more than" would be a very strange construction when "three times more" or just saying the number would be simpler and more obvious. EDIT: another article on losses by Meduza who helped develop the methodology mentioned by the "twice more than" guy - https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/02/24/at-least-75-000-dead-russian-soldiers. This covers the period up to late 2023 and they estimate 75,000 dead by that time. I think it reasonable to assume then that their estimated number is currently around 100,000.

These are confirmed (i.e. they know the name) deaths only relying on public records. The group tracking them have estimated the actual number is around twice as much - https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1245495971/at-least-50-000-russian-troops-have-been-killed-in-ukraine-media-probe-finds

Is the graph heading missing some zeros? 200K a month seems pretty trivial really even as a spike.

The BBC has been involved in compiling a list of know Russian dead since Feb 2022 from social media, cemeteries, etc. - Russia's meat grinder soldiers - 50,000 confirmed dead

Hopefully this guy and more like him can get the message out then. He makes no bones about it not being worth it.

Ukrainian forces dismiss as fake information about withdrawal of Abrams tanks from battlefield due to drones

Have Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs Been ‘Thrown Aside’ By Ukraine? - A senior Pentagon official has alluded to a recently deployed long-range ground-launched weapon suffering from Russian jamming and other issues.

The story of how the Ukrainians stole the EW tank - Cirque du Soleil acrobat steals T-72 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytWVaueLozs

Don't forget the Bohdana - Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer is rolling off production lines – here’s what it can do It sounds like it is not without problems, but if Ukraine can produce enough the numbers and self-sufficiency might help.

To add some nuance to the numbers, note that the big change in democracy to autocracy from 2010-2021 is due almost completely to ONE country, India. Also note that the numbers for liberal democracies have not declined greatly (map and 2nd table showing total populations - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-people-live-in-a-political-democracy-today/) despite Canada's best efforts.

A couple of videos of drone teams, one using the Baba Yaga and another in Kherson. They show the communication between recon drone and attack drone teams. Ukrainians training soldiers on semi-automatic shotguns as a counter to drones - Ukrainian military practices to counter drones with guns

Given the recent discussion on weapon systems, here is an article on the Patriot, its success in Ukraine and how this is increasing demand for it and perhaps increasing its longevity How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future

Video of it (from the 2 minute mark)

Is this normal? In both instances it looks like over 20 personnel disembark from a single vehicle. I didn't know you could even fit that many on a tank. From recent videos the Russians have lost a lot of equipment over the past weeks, so are men plentiful but vehicles not so much now?

Vodka is just ethanol plus water, so yes

I just looked on AliExpress and ethanol detector boards can be had for a few dollars a piece. Sensors for methanol and antifreeze might be a bit more expensive.

Claims of 6 destroyed and 8 damaged aircraft Recent satellite pictures of the airfield

The HUR making some bold claims ‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack

The manufacturer of the Caesar is talking it up and saying that it's characteristics are helping it to survive better on the modern battle field compared to other self-propelled guns In Ukraine, ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics helping Caesars survive

It's ironic that you exactly prove your point by posting an outrage-farming video by someone with a clear political bias watching a video by someone else with a political bias (who misrepresents what people say and asks leading questions) rather than actual data. I will not discuss US politics as I am not American, it is off-topic and it will just lead to a ****-show, so consider this post in the vein of how to form evidence-based opinions, which has been a central point of discussion over the past few pages. Here is an actual study on this topic. Note how they outline their methodology and openly discuss the limitations of the study. You are also free to decide for yourself if these are meaningful when spread out over the entire population (though you would really need to look more closely at local situations given the way the electoral system works). WHO LACKED PHOTO ID IN 2020?: An Exploration of the American National Election Studies

Looking at the news cycle, Havana syndrome is having another moment in the limelight. Maybe it is like flesh-eating disease - case numbers remain relatively stable year on year but every now and then the media picks up on it, starts feeding on itself and then mass reports it like it is a new thing come to get us all. As it happens, a scientific report (not clear if it has been peer-reviewed and officially published yet) and a literature review have just been released too (March 2024) if anyone is interested. NIH studies find severe symptoms of “Havana Syndrome,” but no evidence of MRI-detectable brain injury or biological abnormalities “Havana Syndrome”: A post mortem

Wildberries is like the Amazon of Russia. It could be just a demonstration of what could happen, business as usual, or perhaps someone didn't get the memo about treading carefully. That would back up the quote above from the NYT about tensions over migration policy inside Putin’s security establishment.

Yeah, which is why I was interested in the origin of the conspiracy theory. If it started in Russia and becomes prevalent there, what does it say about Russians' trust in Putin's administration? If Gerashchenko and Nexta, who aren't exactly reliable sources, are feeding grist, then it is just icing.

Is it really a conspiracy theory started and doing the rounds in Russia though or is it Gerashchenko "extrapolating" from a theory put out by Nexta? Nexta don't seem to be attributing the theory to someone else. If it is from Nexta, it will be interesting to see if it takes hold in Russia and the impact it has on the sale of blue sweaters there.