Jump to content
Special Upgrade 4 Tech Tips

Vanir Ausf B

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,583

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Vanir Ausf B

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

    Except that there are a at least a dozen kinds of highly skilled specialist required to make that work like the hype says it should. In the absence of conscription Western militaries are going to have to PAY those people. Ukraine is getting by because entire tech firms and university engineering school  student bodies signed up.

    For sure there will be huge demand for those skills, but if you're not paying for machine gunners, tanks crews and fighter pilots that should free money for a smaller number of technical specialists, at least enough to compete with the private sector.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Latest on Avdiivka and Helicopters Operations.

    https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1749922739467477072

    1/ By late 2023, Frontelligence Insight noted a stabilized situation in Avdiivka. However, recent developments have worsened the situation for Ukrainian troops, especially in the southern residential area.

    2/ While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. If unable to capture the area, russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble.

    3/ The visible artillery strikes, moving from the outskirts to residential areas, indicate the shift. Eventually, the damage makes defense challenging. The same problem extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings targeted by previous Russian FAB hits.

    4/ The situation on the flanks remains more stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Sattelite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, and Novokalynivka.

    5/ In summary, Avdiivka's situation has worsened due to limited artillery ammo, a decrease in counter-battery fire, and a lack of reinforcements. Russia exploits these gaps, leveraging its personnel and ammo numbers advantage.

    6/ Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

    Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine's ATACMS strikes on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned and remained unused until recently.

    7/ Recent imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians keep no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersed.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    The real question is whether or not someone can translate drone superiority into offensive success.  I am thinking the first side that can kill anything and everything in a 20km deep box and simply walk forward is going to win.

    That's going to make for some boring war games in the future.

    But we'll always have CMCW.

    6

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Vanir Ausf B

    Everybody's walking in Ukraine
     

    Quote

    “It is extremely dangerous to go by car,” said a Ukrainian National Guardsman, who uses the call sign Varvar. Men of his unit said that since September they had been leaving their armored vehicles and walking in six miles to positions. “You can only go in on foot,” Varvar said.

    The men of the 117th Brigade, who were deploying  to the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region on a recent night, faced a four-mile hike through rain and mud, the intelligence commander said. If they were wounded and captured, Russian troops would execute them, he warned them.

    The long, arduous slog to carry in ammunition and food to supply troops and to carry out the wounded was one reason Ukraine could not sustain its counteroffensive, a company commander, Adolf, 23, said.

    Ambulances and supply vehicles came under fire from kamikaze drones so often that his unit stopped using them, resorting instead to a four-wheeled buggy that volunteer engineers rigged up to carry a stretcher. The buggy was hidden under some trees beside his command post several miles from the front line.

     

    More stories of Russians using tear gas.
     

    Quote

    Some members of his platoon said the Russians used drones to drop smoke grenades into their trenches. One soldier, who uses the call sign Medic, said it seemed like a kind of tear gas.

    “It causes a very strong pain in the eyes and a fire, like a piece of coal, in your throat and you cannot breathe,” he said.

    Several soldiers donned gas masks to treat the men affected, but when two men in the platoon crawled from the bunker to flee the gas, they were killed by grenades dropped from Russian drones hovering above, soldiers said.

     

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/08/world/europe/ukraine-troops-exhausted-defensive.html

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Vanir Ausf B

    There's a new book out claiming that Zaluzhny wanted to do the Zaporizhzhia offensive a full year before they actually did it, but that the US convinced them to hit Kherson instead.

    Quote

    Rather than support the objective Ukraine wanted, the US pushed Ukraine to focus on different target for its southern counteroffensive: Kherson. It was a safer option, and the stakes were lower. The city was an important early Russian war win and one Ukraine would decide to pursue instead of Zaporizhzhia. In that offensive, Ukraine's attacks on bridges shattered the resupply routes Russia needed for its occupiers in Kherson, forcing the Russians to retreat across the Dnipro river.

    "The reason we recommended that they do Kherson was that they didn't have the trained personnel and the kit to go south," a senior Pentagon official involved in these discussions told Trofimov, adding that "we thought that if they bit off more than they can chew in the South, they would get routed."

    Zaluzhny disagreed, his aides said, telling Trofimov that the general argued Ukraine "must attack where we should, not where we can." But as the US controlled the majority of military aid to Ukraine, there was little arguing. Kherson it was.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wanted-a-bold-counteroffensive-but-us-disagreed-book-2024-1

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

    In international waters, it would have to be don’t ask don’t tell (ie Somali pirates). I don’t think you’d need to be very “high seas”. Last I checked these things are parked off India, and off Morocco.

    No opposed boarding needed. Just drive by these things on a speedboat and put an RPG or 3 through the bow. Or a seababy if you want to operate from a distance. You don’t need to destroy the ship or take it over; just damage it enough it cannot move.

    Instigating people in India or Morocco to attack shipping going into India or Morocco is going to severely piss off India or Morocco, and it would get shut down very quickly. These are not lawless failed states where that could function for long.

    Ukraine has done this sort of thing on land in Africa, but AFAIK only in Sudan specifically. Sudan is in a state of civil war and Wagner has taken a side in that war, so the other side in that war has nothing to lose by letting Ukraine SOF operate on its territory. That dynamic doesn't translate to just anywhere else.

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

    Another war this war kind of reminds me is the Winter war. In the minds of a lot of people because a much smaller state like Finland still remained independent after it it won the war, but the truth is it also had to give up some territory in the east to the USSR. To this day I see memes related to that war.

    "In our war against the Finns we had an opportunity to choose the time and the place. We outnumbered our enemy, and we had all the time in the world to prepare for our operation. Yet even in these most favorable conditions it was only after great difficulty and enormous losses that we were finally able to win. A victory at such a cost was actually a moral defeat. Our people never knew that we had suffered a moral defeat, of course, because they were never told the truth. All of us—and Stalin first and foremost—sensed in our victory a defeat by the Finns. It was a dangerous defeat because it encouraged our enemies' conviction that the Soviet Union was a colossus with feet of clay."

    -- Nikita Khrushchev

    6

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Vanir Ausf B

    27 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    I think that article is about what you can expect when you get opinions of a single company co.

    Fair. Some bitterness is understandable.

    "Mykola Melnyk was seriously wounded during one of the assaults during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A Russian large-caliber gun hit him when he was trying to navigate a Bradley through a minefield and lost his leg. During an attempt to get to the nearest Ukrainian positions, he stepped on anti-personnel mine and fell on another one. Mykola is now slowly recovering, and just recently was able to stand up."

    2
×
×
  • Create New...