Vanir Ausf B
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Posts posted by Vanir Ausf B
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Just now, Haiduk said:
Ukraine officially asked Sweden about JAS-39. So, with very high probability they can fight together %)
More power to them if they can make it happen but I see only 8 pilots in the first F-16 cadre and wonder how many more are available.
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59 minutes ago, Teufel said:
These Swedes some sly and sneaky bastards, wouldn’t surprise me if this “already started” been ongoing for some time. The SAAB 39 Griffin is available in around 100-120 units across friendly countries of Sweden, Czech Republic and the UK. Let’s exclude South Africa, Brazil and Hungry that also have these but unlikely to transfer to Ukraine.
The Czech Gripens are leased (as are the Hungarian) and the UK only has one of them, so it's probably Sweden or nothing.
I suspect Haiduk is correct that this is Plan B in case Plan A (F-16s) doesn't happen. I don't think we will see both F-16s and Gripens in Ukraine.
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The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution.
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“They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said.
The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K.
“And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”
Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.
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It's going to be #2, obviously.
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NATO standard
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
At best Russia can construct significant hedgehog defenses. Anything other than that is beyond their capabilities to do when time, resources, and space are considered.
Which is why I continue to assess that Russia is fighting so hard to maintain its current positions because it knows it has nothing behind it capable of stopping a Ukrainian breakthrough.
Steve
There's a lot we don't know, but satellite data suggests that the line of fortifications around Robotyne is the first of three "belts" (broadly speaking) between Ukraine's starting positions and Melitopol, and they are building more all the time.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ
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Cope cage on a Challenger? Sacrilege!
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Ukraine needs more sappers.
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In an urgent appeal to allies, Oleksii Reznikov told the Guardian his soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre in places, laid by Russian troops to try to thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
He said the vast minefields could be traversed, but that it was critically important that allies “expand and expedite” the training already being provided by some nations, including Britain.
The number of sappers in the Ukrainian armed forces was nowhere near enough to get through the complex Russian defences on the vast 600-mile (1,000km) front, with mine clearing units targeted with heavy fire.
Serhiy Ryzhenko, the chief medical officer of the Mechnikov hospital in Dnipro, where many of the most seriously wounded are treated, said he was receiving between 50 and 100 soldiers a day, with mines being second to artillery as the cause of their injuries.
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6 minutes ago, JonS said:
Isn't this a somewhat ... romanticized (heh) take on the composition of the legions?
It's not much of an exaggeration for the Republican period, at least up to about 100 BC. After the professionalization of the legions loyalties shifted significantly.
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"Most of the prepared UA brigades have now been committed to the offensive according to my notes.
There are reports of 46th Air Mobile Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigade at the frontlines."
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1690299316072587264
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2 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:Ukrainians advance 16-20 kilometers in 'tactically significant' move. Ukraine made a "tactically significant" advance along two lines of attack towards the southern coast, according to the Russian and Ukrainian sources.
Maybe since June 5, but not recently.
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F-16 training update: the first 6 pilots should be ready by mid-summer 2024.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/11/f-16-fighters-ukraine-training-delays/
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9 hours ago, Brille said:
Though how do you mean "works as designed"? (guess that the abbreviation for that)
The way it works is abstract and not intuitive, but there are sound reasons for it to be the way it is. I think the biggest problem is the official documentation is sorely lacking on details about how the C2 system works in-game, leaving players to make assumptions that are often not correct.
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10 hours ago, Brille said:
Do you have a source on that or testing results?
I would have thought that these "spotting beacons" were somewhat bound to their location and their properties would fade over time. Just like they do it visually: slowly fading away with each turn until they can hardly be seen.
Contrary to speculation in that thread that this is a bug it is in fact WAD. My source for that is BFC
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There is immediate need for these weapons...would make Crimea untenable for Russia and accelerate UKR counteroffensive.
I'm not sure why he thinks that. Taurus has about the same range as Storm Shadow/SCALP EG, both of which out range ATACM.
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6 hours ago, SDG said:
Tank v. tank spotting is extremely random
Dont know if the above is a bug or WAD
The CM spotting model has a high degree of variability. It's just the way it is, and it's definitely WAD. That's not to say that tactics don't matter. They can weigh the dice heavily one way or the other but you can do everything right and still lose on bad dice rolls. That's
X-COMCombat Mission, baby.Units share spotting information with other friendly units within about 32 meters (4 action spots). This doesn't happen instantly and it doesn't guarantee the enemy will be spotted by the unit receiving spotting information. Rather, it gives a 50% bonus to future spotting checks against that enemy unit. So again, bad dice rolls can still kill you and sometimes will. Also, this info sharing only matters if the receiving unit has not previously spotted that enemy unit or had C2 information on that unit shared with it, because after one of those things happens the friendly unit will have the spotting bonus for the rest of the scenario even if the relevant enemy unit moves to a different location.
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28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
There is a smoke over the town. Such number of explosions says likely Patriot/Mamba worked (2 missiles per one Kinzhal), but probably several misisiles hit airfield - local TG public issued blurred screenshot with heavy smoke in airfield area.
The interviewed Lt. col. mentioned this recent Russian switch of targets.
The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries, he said, focusing on striking cities far from the capital, such as Odesa, which are not yet covered. They are also upgrading old missiles with advanced technology and radar-absorbent skins. In recent weeks Moscow’s focus has been trying to take out the Ukrainian airfields from where British Storm Shadow missiles are launched, hitting command and logistical centres deep inside occupied territory.
“The strikes on airfields are a tribute to Storm Shadow. Thank you very much, UK, because they really proved to be very effective. With Storm Shadow, you launch a trap missile and an anti-radar missile. All at the same time in the same direction. So the Russians, if they try to intercept Storm Shadow, get an anti-radiation missile hit on their radar. Plus traps. Very, very effective stuff.”
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31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I can't read the article, because subscribe is needed,
Relevant text:
He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”
In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.
“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.
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Interview with an unnamed Lt Col. in Ukraine's air defense command. Some interesting bits.
- Last December, prior to the arrival of Patriot missile batteries, the Ukrainians were considering the evacuation of Kyiv.
- Recent Russian Ka-52 loses are likely from British ASRAAM fired from trucks.
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32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Closeup of a Leopard 2 that, I think, we saw hit by a Lancet the other day. It's very badly damaged by fire. Look a the roadwheels for evidence of how bad it was (you need to log in to see this as the account is flagged age restricted):
You mean this one?
Location doesn't match, and that tank was hit on the right side.
I found two other videos of Lancet hits on Leo 2A6s but their locations don't match with Girkin's either.
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Speaking of language barriers...
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F-16 training going nowhere fast.
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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:
source?
https://time.com/6294670/us-strategy-ukraine-prioritizing-asia/
Caption reads "A M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on the Bakhmut direction on May 18, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine."
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Ukraine continues to cement their reputation as the Noah's Ark of military hardware.
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Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.
One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.
https://www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
"Eventually" being the operative word. Of course there is no reason Ukraine can't operate more than one type of fighter. They do that already. But transitioning to two different types simultaneously seems like a bad idea unless it cannot be avoided, e.g. there are too few fighters of each type available.
For what it's worth, I came across an article from June in which Sweden called Ukrainian pilot training an "operational evaluation":
"The armed forces are tasked with orientation training for Ukrainian pilots and associated aeronautical personnel on the JAS-39 [Gripen]," a machine translation of the release says. "The Ukrainian armed forces have expressed requests to be able to operationally evaluate the JAS-39 as one of the most urgent measures is to strengthen the Ukrainian air defense with a modern combat aircraft system."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen