1939 scenario opening moves

[Col. Kurtz]

Question from a newbie. If the Axis player fails to reinforce his Lowlands front on the first move is it a dead certainty that an experienced and talented Allied player will respond with the Dutch Gambit?

[Comrade Trapp]

It depends on your opponent, some people (me included) will not use the Dutch Gambit because we feel it is a unrealistic and cheap move to make.

Others, usually the really competitive players, will use it in a heartbeat.

[Friendly Fire]

I have wondered this myself. Experienced players will anticipate an invasion of the LC on turn 2 when playing another experienced player. In this case, is there a good chance they won't be prepared to launch the gambit! After all, those assets are useful either to make an early DOW on Ireland, or use the carriers to speed up the sub hunt...

Comments from the top players welcome on this one...

[kossuth]

Dutch gambit has nothing to do with the german border defens. More its a matter of the allied descision if he wants to take the penalty of DW lc.

[Friendly Fire]

Kossuth, this is true only if you are feeling suicidal. Technically, Allies always have the option to launch the gambit on turn 1, but if the Axis sent units to the West they will find a wonderful opportunity to drive over an undefended Maginot line! (Plus the attack on Brussells in turn 1 has a reasonable chance of failure without carrier support)

I have only seen the gambit on turn 2, usually the Allies player sends in the carriers for support and loads the london corps into a transport in order to land in the city once the garrison is destroyed. But... if the Axis invades the LC on turn 2 this opportunity is lost. So the gambit has EVERYTHING to do with the german opening moves!

FF

[Terif]

As Axis you should move a task force to the LC border in your first turn. Then the allied LC gambit can only be a disadvantage for them. Axis units simultaneously close to Maginot and Brussel during a gambit cause Italy to join nearly immediately. So if you have some units in the west, you can attack Brussel, Italy joins and Axis can choose which way to go to Paris (north or south). Allies have only lost a lot of US+russian readiness and given Axis Italy by the gambit.

LC gambit turn 1 is very risky and a big gamble. Success rate around 30-40%. If it fails, game over for Allies...If it works a huge disadvantage if Axis have some units ready. Without Axis units, allies can fortify their position in turn 2 and Germany has a problem when it cant attack Brussel any more. Consequence: always have some units ready for a counterattack as Germany !

LC gambit turn 2: will work, but can only be an advantage if Germany has no units ready for a counterattack (see turn 1 gambit). If Axis reaches Paris despite the gambit (before 1941), it is only a huge disadvantage for Allies.

In consequence the gambit can only be useful against unexperienced players - that dont know how to prepare/react - to crush them early. Experienced players should have no real problem to conquer France and then they have a much better situation than without a gambit.

Personally I didnt use the gambit since a long time. Against new players it is simply not fair and causes a short game - and I like long games with a lot of battles . Veterans never leave LC alone in turn 2. Germany has enough units to fight both in LC and in Poland. Its better to take LC as soon as possible, independent from a possible gambit.

So if the gambit happens to you: Dont go in the defensive, you have to attack in the west to bring Italy in the war. If you even can break through and take Brussel... good, go the normal way LC -> Paris. But If LC/northern France is heavily defended you now can also attack from Italy in the south - often the better choice. Take defensive positions in northern Germany and move most air, some armies/tanks + HQs to Italy.

There Allies have no UK air cover, no carriers, no ships for shore bombardment. It needs perhaps some turns more to reach Paris cause of the mountains and the longer way, but Axis will have not much losses and Allies loose several thousand mpps in readiness cause of the gambit, so a few turns more or less doesnt matter.

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by Col. Kurtz:

Question from a newbie. If the Axis player fails to reinforce his Lowlands front on the first move is it a dead certainty that an experienced and talented Allied player will respond with the Dutch Gambit?

The LC gambit was a hot debate some months ago.

My view:

1) If Allies fail LC gambit, it leaves Axis with a HUGE advantage.

2) If Allies suceed, the next 2-3 critical turns probably decide the game. If Allies hold the Rhine and Germany cannot pass then Allies have a BIG advantage. Also, if Axis chooce to take the easier hex northeast of Brussels then they lose valuable time too since the other units have time to entrench and Axis have still not crossed the river i.e Allies have BIG advantage.

3) Since Allies must both succeed the gambit AND get the crucial roll to stop Germany 1-3 turns at the Rhine the odds are against the Allies winning. That means gambit is only beneficial when the Allied player is a clear underdog.

CONCLUSION:

LC gambit is a gamble that only is beneficial for a clear Allied underdog because of the big risk. LC gambit can (with some luck) win the game quick for Allies or create a BIG advantage that leave Axis with a longer but quite sure win. LC gambit turn one is even harder for Allies to suceed and that is why Axis attack (turn 2) on LC became standard i.e to prevent Allied turn 2 gambits.

[ March 14, 2004, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[zappsweden]

My personal opinion about LC gambit:

I do not like the gambit since it has no counter. Allies can always do the turn one LC gambit and Axis cannot prevent it. if Axis have bad rolls the critical turns after, they wont even get past Rhine.

When I tried the gambit myself, I did not succeed despite taking LC. Mostly, becuase I did not know what triggered Italy into the war (Axis unit northeast of Brussels plus Axis unit adjacent to Maginot makes Italy jump 10% per turn) but my Axis opponent did. I would not do the gambit these days, because there is no player good enough so that it is worth the risk trying it plus it is quite dull with a short knockout game (with more luck than strategy).

[ March 14, 2004, 09:21 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by Terif:

LC gambit turn 2: will work, but can only be an advantage if Germany has no units ready for a counterattack (see turn 1 gambit).

That is not true. Yes, from the point where Allies press the DOW button, Axis have the advantage (since the risk of failing the gambit is still there) but from the point in timeline where Allies have succeeded the gambit (took Brussels), Allies have a clear advantage.

Anyone can test this in hotseat. Try attacking a French unentrenched Army across the Rhine (with the river strength penalty) and u will fail it more times than succeeding it (despite 2-3 ground units and 3 air). Alternatively, if Axis decide to take the hex Northeast of Brussels (for bringing Italy into the war) there is a myriade of variants where Allies can sell bomber, use their handicap cash in ways to intercept/bombard/carrier strike on turn 3 to force Luftwaffe to "refuel" and lose important time. If Axis wont get past Rhine in the north, France can use plunder and stuff the south Mountain hexes full of corps to delay fall of Paris several months later than normal or even prevent it from falling.

Ofcourse, it depends on Poland and Denmark too. Early surrender and Axis can buy 2 more air fleets and quite certainly break the French lines. But, there is always an uncertainty factor in Poland and Denmark, no water proof way of making them surrender (at leist not on turn 2).

[ March 14, 2004, 08:46 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by Friendly Fire:

I have wondered this myself. Experienced players will anticipate an invasion of the LC on turn 2 when playing another experienced player. In this case, is there a good chance they won't be prepared to launch the gambit! After all, those assets are useful either to make an early DOW on Ireland, or use the carriers to speed up the sub hunt...

Comments from the top players welcome on this one...

The turn 2 gambit can only be made if Axis did not DOW LC on turn 2, so Allies will usually not prepare an LC gambit turn 2 if Axis operated 2 ground units plus moved air west on turn one.

[pzgndr]

I do not like the gambit since it has no counter. Allies can always do the turn one LC gambit and Axis cannot prevent it.

The key to this puzzle for both SC and SC2 may simply be to edit the 1939 setup to ensure the Allies cannot possibly perform the gambit on Turn 1. They certainly were not prepared to do so historically.

If the Allies must maneuver for 1-2 turns, then Germany can counter-maneuver accordingly. The gambit then becomes much more problematic for the Allies, as it should be.

We probably do not want to completely eliminate the possibility of an Allied pre-emptive move, since this is a realistic what-if. A DOW is one option. Diplomatic influence to sway Benelux into activating as an Allied Minor would be another option.

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by pzgndr:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> I do not like the gambit since it has no counter. Allies can always do the turn one LC gambit and Axis cannot prevent it.

The key to this puzzle for both SC and SC2 may simply be to edit the 1939 setup to ensure the Allies cannot possibly perform the gambit on Turn 1. They certainly were not prepared to do so historically.

If the Allies must maneuver for 1-2 turns, then Germany can counter-maneuver accordingly. The gambit then becomes much more problematic for the Allies, as it should be.

We probably do not want to completely eliminate the possibility of an Allied pre-emptive move, since this is a realistic what-if. A DOW is one option. Diplomatic influence to sway Benelux into activating as an Allied Minor would be another option. </font>

[jon_j_rambo]

LC turn#1 gambit --- This move is kamakize at its best. Allies have about 25-35% chance of pulling this off. If it fails, you just lost the game against an experienced player, barring a miracle. Even it succeeds, well, I don't know, nobody has ever tried it against me. I tried it a couple of times against YodaTerif, but it failed. Not fun to give your opponent that easy of a win. I did try it against Zappsweden, & it worked! I won that game. Funny this subject came up....I tried in a couple of nights ago against Liam, it failed & I lost the game. I was so far "behind the 8-ball", no Allied recovery was possible.

LC Gambit turn#2 --- This was a big topic back in 2003. Everybody from Comrade Trapp to Yoda to whoever had an opinion. "Camp Yoda" & his clones (Condor) have created a counter, that is getting Italy into the game. It really hasn't been an issue, with the standard play of Axis attacking LC themselves on turn #2.

[zappsweden]

If LC gambit turn 2 was not dangerous then Axis could neglect LC and take it on turn 3 (because they could finish off Denmark and Poland and attack LC+France with the plunder boost that enable a bigger Luftwaffe and/or Manstein).

My conclusion:

Any Axis player can lose if they do not take LC on turn 2 followed by a succeeded Allies turn 2 LC gambit. Axis player not attacking LC on turn 2 is in fact gambling because the individual rolls of the next 2-4 turns will largely decide Axis victory possibilities.

[ March 14, 2004, 09:04 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[jon_j_rambo]

Yes, it's simple logic. If the Allied LC# 2 gambit isn't a big deal, why does 99% of the people prevent it with Axis DOW on turn# 2?

Because it's a major pain the ass, the Axis have to micro manage every move. And the when the "Big" combat resolution occurs, the Axis can lose trying to cross the Rhine.

I will do the LC# 2 gambit as Allies if given the opportunity. Debate all you want about history, rules, & other crap......but in a competitive game, everybody tries to get the necessary margin of victory.

[Col. Kurtz]

Gentlemen, this stimulating discussion leads to my next question. If the Axis must perform a Low Country Lite invasion on turn 2 is it absolutely essential that they get a one turn knockout? And since the Axis forces in Poland have been stripped and moved west what are the implications of a delayed conquest of Poland?

[jon_j_rambo]

Col. Kurtz --- No it is not essential, but desireable to knock out the LC on Axis turn# 2. If you play the "standard opening", the biggest decision of the turn is to use Luftwaffen against the Poles, in order to gain a breakthru. I have defined the nickname of,"LC-Lite", which means 1 or more of the Luftwaffen are not engaged against Brussells on turn# 2.

It's not that taken the LC & the plunder is soooo important. What is more important is attacking the French on turn# 3 & not having to deal with the LC. It's about getting the Nazi momentum (Blitzkrieg) on the move.

Key is getting across the Rhine so no attacks are halfed....and not putting your valuable pieces in a position to get counter (at least easily destroyed).

[Liam]

Agreed Losing LC to The Allies costs! Your best bet if the Allies attempt Turn 1 is to move in an Armor over the Capitol where Allied Ground Air suffers more and keep your air vigilant to protect. Even move up your Baltic fleet for a surprise hit on any exposed Carriers. Making them intercept lights them up and if the UK player is hunting subs, the French cause of LC Gambit

The Rhine is a tedious thing to cross. Though you save in Readiness it's still painful to counter. I have lost to most players who manage to entrench across the Rhine without going through Italy. Italy can be a pain if it takes it a bit to enter the war and the French stack enough protection in the French Alps to prevent a breakthough.

Best thing to do is always DOW LC turn 2 no matter what, then you fix any possiblity of anything else happening. Place a German corps border Hex to LC Capitol raises Italian Readiness and there ya go

[jon_j_rambo]

note: A couple of games ago against Liam, I tried the LC gambit # 1. I failed. Liam put a panzer in Brussells, I was instantly behind. Kind of like losing a Rook in chess. Liam "held serve" & was able to keep the momentum from there out, and he won.