Hubert - Your Siberian Transfer Rules - With an ALL NEW formula suggestion thrown in.

[dgaad]

In the Version document, you state :

"- adjusted the SU transfer of Siberian Troops to an open period instead of only when SU

existence is threatened during the winter months. (This one I really thought about, but I think

it would be reasonable since I don't think the original transfer was made due to weather but

rather because of the demands of the military situation at the time)"

History : The so-called "Siberian Troops" were actually about 35-40 divisions of well equipped Soviet units that had been deployed in the Maritime and siberian areas to guard against threats from Japan. In 1937 and 1938, Japan and Russia fought two battles that did not bring about a war between them, both of which the Japanese lost, and which featured Georgi Zhukov himself as the master strategist.

After these skirmishes, the Soviet Union felt that Japan remained a potential threat. This view was not without justification, since postwar documents reveal that, for the Japanese, the gigantic question of who to make war against devolved into two basic choices : European powers in the Pacific, or Russia. The choice made is well known, has more to do with oil than any fear the Japanese had of the Russians resulting from the prior skirmishes.

You are correct that the choice to withdraw them (most of them) had nothing whatever to do with weather.

During July through September, the Kremlin was kept relatively well informed about Japanese intentions through the Lucy or Sorge spy rings, which included agents directly in the Japanese Foreign Ministry. By the end of September it had become clear to these agents that Japan had no intention of turning her military forces against the Soviet Union.

Just in the nick of time, too, as the Germans launched a new offensive which came within 100 miles of Moscow only a few days after it started, and eventually to within sight of the spires of the Kremlin by December 5th. It took a few weeks for Stalin and his camarilla to be convinced of Japanese intentions, but the serious situation at the front left little choice.

The consideration to withdraw the troops was based on two conditions :

1) Security in the knowledge that Japan posed no threat.

2) A state of war with Germany.

Your Rule :

Your rule allows transfer of Siberian units during some kind of "open period".

Could you be more specific?

I propose that you again change the rule to reflect more accurately the situation obtaining :

Transfer can occur in any month in which the Sovier Union is at war with Germany, and the date of the game is beyond November 1, 1941.

The reason I am suggesting this change is because I've played a couple of games now, and I find that the Germans typically don't attack until late 1941 or early 1942, and because of the way the rule works the Russians don't get the siberian troops until sometime in 1943, by which time the Red Army is almost completely non-existent anyway. This game result is not very historical, and seems more of a "game balance" or "drama" issue than faithfulness to history.

[ October 21, 2002, 11:28 AM: Message edited by: dgaad ]

[Hubert Cater]

Transfer can occur in any month in which the Sovier Union is at war with Germany, and the date of the game is beyond November 1, 1941.

Correct, transfer can only happen when the SU is at war with Germany since they are not active otherwise.

I chose not to go with specific dates for a variety of reasons, since for example if you were to attack in 1940 which many players chose to do during the early demo days, the SU has no chance if they are not allowed to transfer their siberian divisions because 'it's not time' Rather it is based on an open period simply meaning it can happen at any time and iff the SU is severly threatened. This may be tweaked a bit and has been adjusted to take into better account attacks through the south, but if it were to happen too early or at a specific date it could throw out the balance even more as it can become too predictable.

Although I don't doubt your in depth analysis, the primary reason to go with an open period is to make it dynamic based on game play and not on hardcoded dates, again if for example you attack the SU early then history changes and what is and what is not historical simply becomes conjecture, but if you attack on June 22, 1941 and you have a decent drive to Moscow then a transfer is likely to happen in and around the winter months and history is preserved thus making the current system sensical in either case. Again it's not to say it's perfect, but I will take a closer look at this one as well for future tweaks if necessary.

Hope this helps,

Hubert

[dgaad]

Hubert :

I agree completely with your rationale.

However, I'm wondering why in my games where I play as the Allied player the Siberian units take so long to show up. Where the Germans attacked in late 41 or early 42, I seriously did not get the Siberian units until spring of 43!

I guess for an "early" German attack, you would have to allow for a withdrawal of the Siberian units based on relative threat to the Soviet Union regardless of the Japan question.

However, for "late" German attacks, I just don't understand why it took so long for the arrival.

Perhaps you could either post here or PM me with a more complete description of the algorithim so I can understand it. I did notice they showed up on the exact turn after I first had a ground unit deployed near Sverdlosk. Does the placement of Soviet units around Sverdlosk factor into the event trigger?

[dgaad]

From some of your comments, it seems to me that the Siberian event is triggered by "relative threat" factors. This would probably be measured by proximity of the Germans to certain areas, and relative army sizes in Russia.

While this is a good formula, I'm thinking that it would be better to factor in a calendar time modifier where the later it gets in the game, the more easily the transfer is triggered. Thus, a "late" German attack would be likely to trigger the event even if the relative ratio of force tended to favor the Soviet Union.

The formula as it stands now, as I understand it, is open to exploit. If the Germans opt for a defensive strategy where they invade to take resources but avoid having a threatening ratio of force, the event might not ever get triggered or might not get triggered until too late in the game.

I think if you add a calendar factor into the trigger, it would reduce potentially gamey or exploitive play, by making the siberian event more and more probable (almost, but not quite, to the point of certainty) the later in the game it gets regardless of ratio of force.

That is :

Siberian Transfer is Triggered based on three variables:

The Ratio of Force factor(German total points in Soviet Territory / Total Soviet Points)

The Threat Factor : Distance in Hexes of nearest German Unit to Sverdlosk, Moscow, Vologda, Voronezh, Stalingrad, or Rostov.

Calendar time - which tends to decrease the ratio of force trigger level as time goes on.

If I give it some more thought and engage in the distasteful practice of algebra, I might even write the formula for you if you are interested.

[ October 21, 2002, 11:24 AM: Message edited by: dgaad ]

[Hubert Cater]

OK something to think about.

Hubert