Allied opening gambit...Germany cant win!!

[Rudy]

Hello, I have played SC 1939 scenario 8 times, and in most games the German won. But yesterday I play a guy who played the allies different. Instead of waiting and building up armies, he was agressive from the start. First of all he took the low countries on the second move. Second, he moved invading units to Italy, with most of the British navy, then declared war on Italy, and then moved his units in unoccupied Italian cities.The he destroyed the Italian navy. As the German player, I find this move to be devastating. Im scrambling to keep up, when Im supposed to be on the offensive!

[Steve C]

Rudy,

I have a PBEM opponent who just tried this on me. It took me by surprise too, and I think my reaction could have been better. The crux of the matter is, do you let Italy shift for itself and concentrate on taking the Low Countries, or fight back strongly in Italy ? Initially I tried both, but it was soon obvious that this early, the Axis doesn't have the resources to fight hard on two fronts.

Based on my limited experience, I think it has to be the latter. Keep enough Germans up north to hold the frontier, and operate a German HQ, armor, army and your air units to Italy. He gets the drop on the Italian navy, but keep your remaining ships in port to protect them, smash the British invading corps and then if his navy hangs around too long to give the Italian fleet the coup de gras, pound the Allied ships with your air units. Anyhow, those invading corps came from where ? Most likely Gibraltar and Alexandria, so maybe the Italians can retaliate there.

I agree, it seems bad for the Axis. Even if you punish the Italian thing, it buys time for Allied entrenchment in Low Countries / France, wastes MPP on operating units and throws you off schedule. I'd like to hear other opinions on this Italian thing.

[Shaka of Carthage]

Dutch Gambit: Allied invasion of Low Countries

Italian Gambit: Allied invasion of Italy.

Used together, generally referred to as the Double Gambit.

The best way to deal with this, is to operate enough units over to the Low Countries, so you as the Axis can invade LC on turn two.

If, however, you get caught unprepared, Germany can usually afford to send one or two units to Italy to help out.

The use of the German air is what is critical, and where most people will give different advice.

Personally, I believe the correct approach is to finish off France as soon as possible, while those extra German units in Italy should prevent Italy from falling. But the sinking of the UK ships and a potential Sealion is another possibility.

And while it is attractive to sink the UK ships, the longer it takes you to eliminate France, the less time you will have to prepare for the real battle, the one against the Russians.

[pzgndr]

Allied abandonment of land positions in the Mediterranean should activate Italy, which should preclude use of Allied ground units making an early invasion. Are players not seeing an early entry by Italy, or is this something that should be tweaked again? Allied naval movement has no effect, but maybe it should? The Italians would not be completely obtuse to an impending attack.

Transporting units from England and France takes time, as well as moving the Atlantic fleets down to the Med, so it should be difficult for the Allied player to launch a decent sneak attack in the first several turns. By then Poland should have surrendered and the German Wehrmacht available for operations in the west.

So the Allies invade southern Italy and take Taranto and destroy half the Italian fleet. Then what? Northern Italy should hold, Sicily should hold, Albania and Libya should hold, and Rome is dug in. Germany can op move a HQ, Luftflotte, and a ground unit or two down to Rome to stabilize the situation while it focuses on France. Might need to buy another HQ here to fight into France, which is tough if the Allies have done the Dutch Gambit but not impossible.

Italy has entered early, so despite some losses their MPPs are now in play and will help offset those losses. US war readiness drops about 13% just for the DOW against Italy (more if the Low Countries are also attacked), which means a delay in their entry and loss of their 180 MPPs/turn for a while (ouch!). Once France surrenders, the French fleet and whatever French units are in Italy will disappear, leaving only British raiders to deal with. This will all take some time, but the Axis should be able to pull out of this mess and then have extra time to retaliate against Britain without US interference.

What's the latest concensus on Italy? If this Gambit is an ahistorical game breaker, then Hubert should probably tweak the Italian entry triggers again. If Axis players are in fact able to recover and go on to fight a competitive game, then maybe it's OK and just a player skill issue.

[Kuniworth]

DO NOT FEAR THE DOUBLE GAMBIT - WELCOME IT

Your opponent will lose 2000-2500 MMP doing so, because US and USSR will take longer time to get into the wart and Italy will be there from the start.

Smart players like Terif only do the gambits against weak players. Instead he trains his carriers against Ireland(which costs less in war entry than attackin low countries) and make France a killing zone.

[SeaWolf_48]

Bill

Italy needs corps in all of her cities, an HQ and an airforce in Italy to stop the Italian Scenario. Can you tweek the Case Blue Scenario for us. Make a modified version for us to play around with.

Also another modified version with more US Troops at the beginning. With: 1 Air, 1 Bomber, 1 HQ, 1 Tank, 2 Cruisers, 1 AirCraft Carrier.

That would be fun to play around with.

[pzgndr]

Italy needs corps in all of her cities, an HQ and an airforce in Italy to stop the Italian Scenario. Can you tweek the Case Blue Scenario for us. Also another modified version with more US Troops at the beginning.

Seawolf, Fall Blau? That was initially a 1938 study by the Luftwaffe about aerial warfare against England. Later in 1942 it was the codename for the operations of Army Group South. I don't see the relevance to either the Italian or US setups. :confused:

Since we can't edit the setups of neutrals (and I'm using the same campaign editor that you have), there's not much more I can do with those setups beyond what I've already done in the Campaign mods.

Kuniworth summed things up pretty well, and I think the current game penalties for the Allies are sufficient to make these gambits risky. They may work occassionally, but US readiness drops about 13% for each DOW which means a 4-6 turn delay. The double gambit means a 8-12 turn delay, so that's roughly a 2000 MPP loss for the Allies. Do the math. Are you inflicting comparable losses on the Axis to make these gambits worth it? Are the Allies able to exploit their initial surprise and go on to defeat either Italy or Germany? Maybe, but usually not. I think the game has it about right by allowing these what-if strategies with some associated risk. We don't want to restrict options too much.

A good Axis player should be able to conquer Poland on the second or third turn AND be prepared to attack in the west on turn 3. If the Allies take the Low Countries on turn 2, press on. If the Allies attack Italy after that, accept your initial losses and stabilize the situation in southern Italy, but continue to focus on France and then take care of the Allies in Italy. It may take a while, but keep thinking long-term.