omae2

Did something changed at Kharkiv? The news in my country media is talking about a russian summer offensive, but im not sure if they talk about the one on the early days of may or there is something going on that im not aware.

Yeah but in Hungary there is an 80% support of staying in the EU. Cause we think its economically beneficial. We would only vote ourself out if there would be some big political or economical action against Hungary that my government could use to propagate that the EU is hurting us. Or if the EU is simply throw out Hungary. Also if Hungary would have been under the russian umbrella (and don't get me wrong i don't want this) they would put soldiers here. That would ensure that if the government suppress opposition voices with violence there will be no intervention. Which is where we heading in my opinion. I mean they bought a lot of tear gas two months ago. But all this is just speculation so you're right "larf".

This on paper makes sense but in reality Hungary is start to deviate more to the eastern part of the world. They try to make business with russian corps where ever they can. For example a russian super market coming to my country and gonna build god knows how many market. They will try to undercut the western super markets in price heavily at least that was the news a couple month ago. Contrary to that Spar which is i think a German or Austrian super market are being pushed out by the government because they didn't let them to buy a certain percentage into to their corp. Also my government is deliberately provoking the western partners (like not supporting the memory of the sebrenica massacre and such), and im not sure why is that but if i have to pull out an answer from under, i would say because they cannot leave the EU or NATO they can be only kicked out of it. Otherwise people will get very angry. But from their point of view EU and maybe even NATO (although im not sure about that cause our value in the eyes of our eastern partners is based on our position in the western world) is a risk. As you can see above its not just the ideological differences but the greed of my dear government as well that sooner or later will inevitably break this alliance. Unless something happen. Viktor said that he want to stay in power for 2036. Not as fidesz but as a person. He made his childhood friend one of the richest guy in the country, but most of us are thinking that he just holding the money for him, cause he is a pushover. Also his child amassed ridiculous amount of money as well. If he lose an election its sure that his opponents will be out for that money, and to make an example of him. So i guess all this pro russian government is based on the fat guy fears of held responsible for what he done. If we are out of the EU and NATO, and in BRICS than he can be assured that eastern military will keep him in power and out of jail if his a good boy. So im not sure if those data is valid in this context, they don't care about the country only about themself.

50 000 is not limited. I think what they figured is that Ukraine defense is planned against mech force. Spread out infantry, atgms, drones. Also they know that they have limited tubes and ammo. So they might thought why send high value targets that they can destroy for the price that the unit is worth, why not send a bunch of guys that worth much less. Even on mech assaults the Ukrainians take out apcs first cause infantry is take long time to kill off once they spread out. They get into every bush and ditch and basement. In Bakhmut and Avdivka they used small meat waves to gather info and make dug in position so they can control more and more territory. Now, i think, they realized that they can skip the long grinding part by sending a lot of meat that will overwhelm the Ukrainian weapons. There is simply so much target that they cannot work on everyone due to the limited capabilities of the UAF. But what they achieved is that they pushed the frontline into Ukraine about a dozen? kilometer.That means their arty can work on more targets. They also get another pr victory, cause in the last couple of weeks its all about russia is advancing. Is it worth it? Well i don't know but i think they feel like its worth it.

This attempt be of no real consequence globally. I don't mean to insult anybody but both Slovakia and Fico is sort of insignificant. There will be a lot of **** wrestling in the Slovakian parliament and a blame tsunami, but that guy is just a resident crazy. He represent nothing. The worst thing that can happen is that Fico will be unable to go back to work and the next guy join up with the pro-russian Orban EU leader to slow down decision making. If someone would blow my dear Viktor head off that would make difference but we don't have either a crazy enough person for that or enough weapon in the country so that crazy person could obtain one.

This is exactly my thoughts after watching the videos from the last week. The 150-200 thousand Ukrainian on the frontline could have hold their position but the lack of equipment and ammunition is putting them into situations where they cannot defend themself. In my humble opinion it doesn't matter if you cram 400 000 guy on the front if they don't have core elements of combined warfare to solve the problems they facing. Its easy to blame the Ukrainians overboard or inside the country but the real reason for russian advances are the lack of support from the west. When the main issue of a defensing force is not that they have to stop a company of mech inf with tank support is but that doing so while they don't use any atgm only limited arty and drones than its fairly easy to just pour meat and steal on them until they run out. Here i can see daily the mocking of the russian system and tactics, but lets be honest they advancing, they are not breaking, their back country is strong and they have an neighbor that can support them with anything they need. And the west? They don't even know what they want. Its a disgusting tragic-comedy what is unfolding at the moment. One of the many blunders of western foreign policy of the last two decades. I am deeply concerned about a system that even from a dominant position is unable to achieve its goals, what will happen when the BRICKS countries start unify on more front? How could a system that is so hard to make a decision, so easily getting confused, wasting so much resources, win in the long term against china and its lackey? These questions will become more and more common around the world when the balloon of western supremacy pop after this war and we all have to face the consequences.

While you're right i would add, that there is no full mobilization and there is no need yet to throw kids into the meatgrinder who made nothing that last after they died horribly. The Ukrainians see this well this is why those whom under 27 (i think now its 25) are not mobilized. On one hand they need that generation to build whats been destroyed and to make children. On the other hand someone who has kids and a house will most likely have motivation to defend that. Someone who has nothing will have not much motivation unless ideology or hate. So in the end they will not fight for freedom, cause they have no attachments. They are free to flee and live in another country building a life up. I mean you cant really argue with human nature or at least its pointless. But than again, yet there is no need for 18 years old in the trenches, what they need is weapons and ammunition. Thousands could have been saved by those two. But that kid, i doubt he would have made any difference.

I don't think its right to blame a kid for running away. Most of the guys that go to fight for Ukraine was in the military and love to do that. Not all but its a big difference. Also its easy to demand a kid to risk its limbs and life while had no opportunity to get a family and kid, so leaving behind something. But its ain't right. I understand why you seeing this way, cause you probably joined up with the military at a young age and lived a life there. Those who run know very little about it, most of them would not be an officer only a grunt. I have young Ukrainians just on the opposite door on my level, the kid must be like 20 something. I couldn't blame him from leaving, its a choice that can be made. He can have a life, as he should be, its perfectly fine.

They should only threaten, not only the bridge but across the western part of russia so the russians pull aa systems off the front into the back yard. Similar how the russians is bombing the cities to force the Ukrainians to defend their cities with their scarce aa systems. Oil refineries are good target cause the russians have to defend them. But the main effort should be attacking the frontline supportive units. Weakening multiple spots, closely following where the gaps develop then faint one attack and develop another. I don't get this whole USA thing. When the European NATO members tried to take control of the aid process they didn't like that. They wanted to be in charge. Now if Trump get into office he will totally cut Ukraine? It really feels like soap opera. I don't get it why a 500 million population, economic powerhouse relying on an oversea circus to ensure its protection against the russians. We could be a contender to china and the USA yet we still act like some sort of a naive idiot that don't know what to do. Constant bickering about nothing, loud speeches than no actions taken, letting my country to stop the process of giving aid to Ukraine on the EU level. Germany should already work on obtaining nuclear weapons, Poland as well. We should already integrate the member states army into a EU army that has a common language. They should bring back conscription so every young fella can have a basic knowledge about warfare. Not watching the USA if they manage to vote in a senile guy for a second term against an old spoiled brat with narcissistic personality disorder.

No it will not last even that long. As soon as the russians think that they can bite off another slice from Ukraine with moderate losses they will provoke or create a situation where the deal can thrown to the trash bin. They did similar things with the minsk agreements. All these nonsense about negotiations is futile and shows that the west still don't get the situation which they are in. russia long term goal is to either break up the EU or demolish it and they want the USA to get back to the other side of the ocean. They are confident that they can do that because they have nuclear weapons which give them the upper hand against the EU. They are fairly sure that in a case of a limited nuclear strikes against European cities the USA will not retaliate because they simply "not mad enough" and only those who "hate their own country would retaliate." russia want war, and they will pursue this goal for the next decades unless they have a major slap in the face that will make them realize how dumb their plan is. Every attempt to treat the russian elite as a legitimate political entity is just helping their goals. The west should build up its production capacity as fast as possible, to be honest they should have done that 2 years ago. Right now we heading towards the worst possible outcome.

An interesting peak into the russian geopolitical mindset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06PtZaSK4YU

Drones could just identify landmarks, or have integrated satellite pictures or other type of maps that help it with navigation.

We should tolerate each other than, even if one on the other side of certain issues.

The main problem with this attitude is: 1.: It doesn't respect other peoples opinion on the matter, which very common when it comes to this topic. 2.: You guys acting like the west giving charity to Ukraine and not pursuing its political goals. The hypocrisy is strong with the argument that if you don't like our values than join the other side. Which would be a very big problem to NATO. 3.: This topics are not just blown out of proportion but doesn't matter at all. This is why its such a hotly discussed topic on the west. Cause it is a dividing matter, and have no consequence in peoples life. You can chew on it like a bone without any brain based on believes. So i think we could give the courtesy to Haiduk that he has his values that can be respected not just yours.

Not just balls but a lot of US provided weapons as well. Those weapons would be of use in your country better against the russians. Israel picked a very peculiar time to get into an escalation circle in the middle east. All the support that is wasted on Israel us gonna be missed in Ukraine. That's even more concerning when you realize that Iran cant really do anything other than political stunts with its drone and proxies. All of that is pointless and lead to nothing but wasting efforts and assets on the middle east.

That's cant be the reason behind this. Israel has no border with Iran so they only going to shoot at each other with long range systems and some lightly armed paramilitary group will attack on land. If i would try to make some brain fart i would say that some US figure thinks that a constant russian threat to Europe is better than a beaten russia. Or just plain stupidity. I mean from personal experience i can say that humans are dumb as ****. But i don't move around the level these peoples live.

I think what we see on the net is misguiding. We cannot understand the context in which a successful hit was achieved. I fairly confident that there is many more gunners that shooting the same drone. What i think would be a counter is smaller but faster kamikaze drones that would track down and flew into the attacking drone, with the help of some platform that will make it easier to register threats. Also high priority targets should be defended by automatic guns that shot something that separate in the air like a bird shot and have target identification tools as well as automatic target acquisition. And of course all of that with as little money as possible. Drone warfare will be attrition warfare, and drone warfare is the future. To be honest i would not want to be a soldier nowadays. There is many ways to twist this and i think technically more qualified peoples will make many new ways to defend and to attack with drone, but what is sure that twenty years from now drones will be the main tool on the battlefield. I wonder what would that do with our society. I mean we are at the 60 in terms of defense of high priority targets. With automatic leading on the last part of the fly a drone can take out any political figure that show himself under the open sky. Twenty years from now there will be no point to have a hand held weapon against a technically superior foe, or even ones own government cause it would take no risk to kill that person. The other thing is that it would be of no risk to kill anybody when range of this type of drones get to a threshold where its impossible to identify the killer. I think that a very wild part of the human history is coming towards us.

To me it seems that the trend is changing. Europe try to take the initiative in the war since the USA shown reluctance about supporting Ukraine. Which is i think the way to go. USA is more concerned with the pacific theater and Europe need to build up force to not rely the USA that much anyway. This war is now a grind because of the state of warfare in present day, therefor the critical factor can be psyops. Nato states should actively hunt for russian influencers and speed up the propaganda machine against the russians. Also there should be a constant effort to influence the russian population with every tool available. There should be a constant stream of war is terrible propaganda aimed at the russian average Joe and Jane. Hacked TV stations, abusing VK algorithm to show the pointless and cruel end of the russians in Ukraine. Constantly, everyday, beating in to their head that this is pointless, terrible and can be stopped by them.

Sorry for the double quote i couldn't delete it. So anyone can explain why the white house is so against NATO and therefor Europe taking the initiative in the weapon supply? I mean they are clearly having issues and on the other side of the sea, so their peoples don't feel the same threat as we do. The USA is acting as a wild card its only natural that we step up, and even if the NATO will take control of the supply it does not mean that the USA and its eastern allies cannot help Ukraine if they find the will for it. So what could be the real reason?

The russians have criminals or pseudo criminals that sell weapons. In Hungary about 8 or 6 years ago two russian got caught while they tried to sell manpads to Mexican cartels. Both were given back to russia, both were released by the russian goverment. These criminal organization i think is in bed with the FSB. Selling weapons give you contacts around the world, that would make it possible to influence actors that otherwise would be hostile to them. But again, i don't want argue cause i have nothing. Its just offtopic at this.

I get why we are look like nutjobs, because we only have doubt but no proof. But any of you saw the faces of the killers on the recordings? Even on the bodycam footage their face is blurred their voice is distorted. I don't want to keep argue about nothing cause we have nothing to prove our point. I'm just saying that this whole thing stinks.

Well i guess now we just have to wait for russians to solve the mystery why they would try to cross a frontline to flee russia. But its very clear that the russians saying that Ukraine is an accomplice at best. To a genuine terror attack. I couldn't imagine that they will come to this conclusion. But i bet that the plot will thicken in the next two week and in April a bunch of men will get a letter to pack their things and buy body armor.

Suit yourself if you feel that way. But for your rhetorical questions: "But now Putin needs to stage a terror attack to...do...what, exactly?" Cause of mobilization. Generally nobody want to die in Ukraine, so they need a shock factor that can be of use in forcing peoples to not to flee. Is it going to do that? I dunno, but after 911 guys all over the USA runned to join up with the army. Its possible that they take it as an example. "So now a single shoot out at a concert in Moscow is going to override all that "who gives a f#ckery?" Oh yeah this the thing with russia, the backwater can be ignored but if you have a major terror attack in moskva than **** gonna go down. Mothers crying on the net for years now and nobody lift a finger, but lets just wait out what will happen when a bunch of moskovite get blasted in the middle of the city. I have a feeling that's its gonna be different. So yeah im gonna stop now and concentrate on the real questions. - Why did ISIL-K do this now? (Maybe because they were encouraged by someone.) - How is Putin going to spin it and why? (Maybe he going to rally up hate against the Ukrainians that he will portray behind this whole fiasco. So people will not run over border from mobilization. Maybe.)

Whats the emotional reaction to when the countries air defense cannot defeat attacks? Fear and mistrust. Whats the emotional response to five guys going in and killing a bunch of unarmed civilian at a concert? Fear and Hate. One is an act of war the other is terrorism. Its disgusting even for those that hate the russians. So that's you number 2. Number 1: Because this is what gives legitimacy to the whole thing. You know and i know that this election was a joke, but not russians. They might doubt it, or they might know that it was not really an election at all, but its the law. They have legitimate power for the next what? Six year? So everybody should do as they say cause they have a legitimate power. If they don't they do that's a crime. It's that simple. Like is it surprise to you that know they start to speak about the "SMO" like war? Or that they will create 8 new brigade? No it was obvious 2 months ago. I know it, you know it, they know it. Did the russians know it? Some might but most people don't care about this things like the ones that are playing CM. They just living their life and all that **** is just a back noise. Average peoples don't know **** about politic and war. This why things work like they do.

This is where cultural differences come into play. You thinking like a westerner that has to be consistent in what hes saying. You don't get that this isn't the case in russia. The bigger the confusion the bigger the control. This is why i say that they will make twist on this that in the end will make no sense. Cause if its make no sense you will only remember the calling words. Ukraine was involved, and the feeling you should have that is hate. Every aspect of russian propaganda is based on building down rationality and enforcing emotional response. They aware that its hard influence rational peoples so they don't need them. They need instinct driven animals. It does not matter that it was a fault of their home defense service. Cause they will not be held responsible. The other thing is the narrative. It does not matter. really don't want to come with cliches but in 1984 there is a scene where they have the two minutes of hate. You know the story in the first part of the two minutes they saying one thing and in the end they say the exact opposite. Its true today as well. There are some peoples in the russian society that can have individual opinion and some influence but usually they are far away in Ukraine. Those back home are don't have influence or first hand experience to know what its true. Its an alternative reality. So it does not matter if the narrative does not fit the picture, only that it push the right button on the primitive parts of the human brain.