Beleg85
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Posts posted by Beleg85
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11 hours ago, The_Capt said:
C’mon, you are being pretty selective in your analysis. From the DW article you just posted (dated 10 Jul 23):
According to OutRush, a research team that conducts surveys among Russian emigrants, 16% of those who left the country after February 24, 2022, have since gone back to the Russian Federation. However, two-thirds said they had only returned temporarily.
So that is one third of 16% have returned to the sweet loving arms of mother Russia…but this is proof that Russians are returning in droves?
Very true; on the surface it looks not nice for Russia and partly certainly is. The catch is that from Russians perspective, SNG countries where large part of migration ended is not abroad; their status is more akin to what Portorico is for Americans. Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc. are considered integral parts of Russian World, called blizneye zarubezye - Near Abroad; these people are hunkering there down for some time, often living off the savings (worth to check their responses- significant part live in a limbo, without plans for long-term immigration). * Others already work digitally, intentionally or not, for the benefit of their country, doing legal an illegal businesses along the borders or setting start-ups in neighbour countries. Naturally Kremlin would love to see them back home, but it is also not some catastrophy if they stay there for several years.
More important for our considerations than sheer numbers is perhaps their attitudes to Putin regime and if they bound together against it...we are talking about predominantly draft doggers, who if asked surprisingly often have nothing against the Kremlin as such, though they do complain about corrupted officials (check surveys below). Russian diaspora, including old one, seems to be overall in 50/50 in favour of it, depending on the country. If so, they are rather proudly displaying their flags, happy that Mother Russia is again opposing entire world. Note also absence of any significant emigree opposition structures (Kasparov is a joke), political parties or nascent military formations, except several hundreds of literal Neo-Nazis/anarchists from RVC, who twice raided northern borders.
No material for Bay of Pigs here or some invisible, widespread subversion by CIA, looking from that angle. If Russia should start breaking any moment, we should first see increased ferment in diaspora, who is always well informed how things stands in country of origin.
Also, If you visit side the the researchers who conducted this survey; note Belarus is coloured white...almost no polls there, as data are difficult to obtain despite Mińsk is known to be hosting number of Russians. This is shadowy migration of better connected draft-doggers who "suddenly" started working there, often coming from Moscow elite itself. Numbers unknown, perhaps low tens of thousands.
* Also folks check last link from Carnagie, it has several polls relating attitudes to war that many of you may find interesting.
11 hours ago, The_Capt said:So here is my question: if Russia does not care about losing billions in sanctions, losing over 100k dead and likely another 100k crippled, a nations worth of military hardware and just about any diplomatic clout it had prior to this war….what does Russia care about?
People? About their personal, small lives first and foremost. Public sphere shrinked so much in 30 years that opportunism may even run across families; note those women who willingly send their own husbands to meatgrinder for extra pay-offs. Also for anyone familiar with this culture, lack of influence of organzations like Comitee of Mothers of Soldiers or similar, that were part of wars in Afganistan and Chechnya is very telling.
Political decision-makers? Struggling with giant imperialistic ego.
11 hours ago, The_Capt said:I have heard this from some folks since the beginning of this thing and it feeds into the invincible Russia narrative. Russia apparently does not care about anything so we can never defeat them without entirely annihilating them…that is not only disingenuous, it is frankly dumb.
Russia is a state and as such has the needs of a state. It requires the core components of statehood primarily a continuous negotiation of a contract with its population. It cares very much about some things, the Russian people care about some things. They are not a monolithic blob that must be eradicated from the earth and if somehow we fail to do this we have lost the war.
All true- Russia can be beaten like any other country; it was in the past. There is a question of means applied, though; I simply don't see them being here in sufficent weight to cause widespread social ferment, and we are heating this kettle for quite long time.
11 hours ago, The_Capt said:I am sorry but the Russian pundits (not you personally) have been consistently wrong in this war. First Russia was supposed to tear through Ukraine in weeks…nope. Then they were supposed to grind Ukraine down…nope. Then they were supposed to do a 1942 level of mobilization…nope. Then they were supposed to dominate the “escalation ladder”. Then they were supposed to step out of the international sanctions box and prevail…nope. All Russia has done is manage to hold onto a few hundred kms of blasted earth and not fall apart. But for some reason this is worth assigning Russia supernatural abilities to rise and conquer?
There is nothing supernatural here- Ukraine is fighting largest country on planet, member of Security Council and former superpower, determined in its imperialistic urge to finish this thing or at least leave with something valuable (be it even sole destruction of Ukraine). It's uneven fight from day one, even with Western help.
Let's also not jump into hyperbolies, usually they are not helpfull...note that we also (me including) planned here campaigns of AFU in Crimea, expected Russian civilian air fleet falling from the skies, Russia bankcupcy long time ago, some even predicted "nations" breaking free from Kremlin. Nothing of this sort happened either. Everybody is wrong from time to time, even best specialists in their fields.
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
For a nation not physically being invaded…this is “not nothing”. If mass exodus of a million people - most well educated and well off from what we can tell - is not a sign of a freakin sick duck I don’t know what is. Now Google “immigration to Russia” and tell me what you see.
We count Central Asiatics, Caucasians and -eventually- colonizing Chinese? This country is a giant that can be partially opened to the East if it really wants. Number of unregistred workers alone probably can reach low milions. Mostly unskiled, naturally, but there are people in Asia for whom living in Russia is attractive.
Brain drainage is not nothing to be sure, and as I said long-term prospects for Russia are not pleasant by any stretch. But it is very long perspective.
A propos, remember that this big wave escaping mobilization was temporary; many of those returned when specifically assured by Putin no more mobilization will be needed, and he seem to keep his promise:
https://www.ft.com/content/5e6bcce9-7bda-4b29-b1b7-f7df6e879fd9
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-why-people-are-returning-despite-the-war-in-ukraine/a-67022321
Many others are still hunkering in "close neighborhood": hotels in Astana, Tbilisi, even Tashkient are literally stuffed in Russian middle class men (and now also their families) who sometimes go back, sometimes orbite close to their country doing business with it; it is among others these people that are very helpful in bypassing sanctions. It came to it that Minsk and Astana became fashionable as travel/fun/shopping destinations for posh Muscovite socialites...a thing that would be considered laughable in these circles before 2022 (imagine Xenia Sobchak advertising trips to some Minsk...a comedy material pre-war, reality now). Russians are collectively "rediscovering" its dependant countries, and oddly some people at Kremlin surely see this as positive thing, reaffirming their place in "Russian world" and by their very existence creating thousands of very real links into what Nevzorov jokingly called "Greater Russian Co-Prosperity Sphere". It is double-edged sword as well from Putin perspective.
2 hours ago, The_Capt said:Just because the RA can sit in water filled holes and cover minefields does not mean they are a credible military force. Until I see a real operational offensive from the RA that goes anywhere, I am not jumping in the “Russian military is still fine” camp.
Yup, that's why Russians are unlikely to succeed in offensive operations of old style, like ones some part of military analysts in my country still imagine as possible. You know: out of a sudden Tank Army jumps out of Kreminna forests and do a blitzkrieg over half of Ukraine. It's all grind on both sides. But yeah, we differ in a sense that I am not assured such Mexican standoff benefits Ukrainian side that much in longer term.
Important events and processes that will likely dictate course of events in this year IMHO:
- Elections in Russia, middle of March (small chances some Brutus will appear to save the day in style)
- fate of Avdiivka salient and road to reconquering rest of Donbass- amazingly, still holding
- potentiall (well, very potentiall) Russian mobile grouping somewhere in the north- more a fantasy by now
- Russian air campaign and Ukrainian missile capabilities- more drones and missiles, but unlikely to change situation significantly in this or other way. Some more impressive fireworks in Black Sea are expected, at least in this area Ukrainains (and perfidious British
) are puting pressure very nicely.
- Ukrainian national will to fight and military needs for fresh recruits; they need to finally be resolved somehow, AFU is tired and blooded as hell. One of major fields for concern right now.
- Hipothetical spring/summer offensives by Russia. Hopefully more wasted heaps of metal and meat, but most probably also not something breaking.
-Fate of clunch in Congress and, ultimatelly, elections in USA- major field of concern for Ukraine, Russia but also world. New phase of conflict will likely be opened afterwards, with several wild cards.
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21 minutes ago, JonS said:
Lol
My partner is from one of the Baltic States. She has been VERY clear that they're part of Northen Europe, not Eastern, thankyouverymuch
I had a girlfriend long time ago from Lithuania, she very firmly insisted caling her Central European, while her friends viewed themselves as half-Russians.
Baltics are crossroads, it depends whom you ask and where. Also, they are unique in NATO actually possessing significant Russian minorities.
3 hours ago, Haiduk said:IL-22:
colonel Burmistrov (allegedly)
There is no information eirther was present onboard ot not the deputy commander of Long-range aviation Command lt.general Pchela.
Interesting thing in this Il-22 case is that it still managed to come back and land, despite bloody mess inside.
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1 hour ago, sburke said:
could have fooled me.
I'm watching Russia's economy buckling and the latest sanction declaration from the US in December has both Turkey and China reevaluating their financial ties. Meanwhile despite some grumbling western aid is still pumping into Ukraine. Russia losing command planes, airfields getting hit, infrastructure going down the toilet.. well for those who actually have toilets. The Colonel responsible for defending the Kerch bridge just got jail time...
Russia Colonel Given Jail Time Over Crimea's Inadequate Defenses (msn.com)
Are things on the Ukraine side all rosy and wonderful? No, but I'd rather be in Ukraine's shoes than Russia's.
Oh, not at all dooming - but we should be very aware of turning this board into echo chamber, and truth to be told it sometimes slips into this a little. I am sceptical for example of taking attitude that McNamarra did in Vietnam: bodycounting. Because after another thosuand dead youngsters Vietnamese surely back down, right? Now Russians are able to replenish their human losses enough to keep meet-feeing machine going. No visible signs of serious stoppages. It is quite amazing given scale of this slaughter.
We will need to see about China true effects of this; probably not before first quarter of 2023 we will know more.
Russian constant rotation of commanders from day one of this war is partly effect of some militaries being to close to Wagner, not necessarly effect of lack of results. Recent smearing campaign against VDV general Teplinsky, where supposed nude photos of his wife were circulating, was likely part of such internal games.
Yup, Russia is getting some bloody nose. Ukraine military infastructure is also getting hammered by strikes (only later it is admitted) and personnell losses take a very brutal and visible toll on their military-age population; just number of MIA is officially deemed to be above 15 thousands. Note that mobilization of successive recruit years in Ukraine will be very painfull process as well. I would really like officers hunting in gyms, cafees and dormitories would only be stunts from Z-propaganda; unfortunatelly they are not. I would even risk of going as far as saying chances of soldiers disobeying orders and marching on capital to cut some corrupt officials are roughly similar both in UA nad RU, if judging by temperature of politcal rows and opinions of Ukrainian friends (note probably these chances are low overal and this may be simply another colour of politcal culture in UA, not real thing). Things are not pretty among them now.
On other side, recent decisive stances by British and French PM's are god direction. There is deifnitelly battle of wills going on here, perhaps more important than in 2023, due to stalemate at the front. All in all, typical for static, attritional war without clear strategy for winning on either side.
Ok, enough of it. Let's unban Zeleban so he could take the lead.
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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Russia is more isolated now than it has been since the Cold War. The trend appears to increasing as the US continues to exert its own power. Is Russia completely isolate, no, not yet. But one cannot say that is had been business as usual either.
Yes , but how that benefits Ukraine? Russia may buckle down in timespan of 5-10 years, but it will be enough to wear down its enemy before that time. Also Russia was never meant to be compoletelly isolated...one can see at Africa and Middle East, they don't seem to shrink their presence and have some undisputed successes, like pushing Frenchmen out of some African states. Hopefully temporarly; but it is sure entire world does not see Russia as a dead horse as we would like.
About US really exerting power we need to wait till elections...it seems for now it is USA that is much more undecided than Russia, with current champion for th seat calling Putin his buddy and that he will end war in 24h. Now it's Trump, so his hands may end in very different place than his mouth was, but who will sit in White House it will be deciding point of 2024 and likely this war. It is UA who is on trajectory for dramatically shrinked options in this phase rather than RU (unless muscovite economy is so bad it will somehow collapse earlier). If UA get lucky, they will play into another round and then perhaps Russia will face their own phase of doom and gloom.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:Russia is definitely constrained in its ability to wage war. We do not know the full effects of these sanctions on the economy but we do know that Russia is pulling from far afield to sustain itself. I think there is an argument to be made on Putin wanting to avoid full mobilization because it may create a tipping point amongst the population - a restrained economy has to be part of that calculus. Can Russia still fight? Sure. But can it field a modern competitive military right now...no freakin way.
On other side, they did arguably replugged what they could quite effectively regarding industry and bypassed sanctions wherever they could (Kazaklhstan noted something like 1000% yearly growth more in certain business areas). It can be argued that defeats already gave Russian military impulses for change in certain fields- namely, precision fires and specifically drones- that were unthinkable before 2022. Electronic Warfare is for example still their trump card and they produce enough missiles to sustain another air campaign (if it is really directed at achieving most effects is another matter).
There are pros and cons; I personally don't think we have enough non-anecdotal evidence to claim who is militarly on winning curve right now.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:Are the Russian people actually doing anything about all this? Who knows.
Well, this we actually know..."if it doesn't quacks like duck, doesn't walks like duck it probably simply isn't a duck
... If there would be massive examples of disobey, civil unrest and other signs of visible opposition for this war- we would surely see them by now. Several actions of extremelly few brave souls are noble, but don't change overal trajectory.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:But these things can take years to fully come to bear. One could argue that the sanctions regime is as much about the next war with Russia as the current one.
So before anyone throws up their hands and goes "Sanctions are not working!!" Really look at what they are doing. And more importantly how much worse the situation would be if we had never undertaken them. We won't know about Russia breaking until it does.
Well sure some sanctions are better than no sanctions, there is probably nobody here arguing that. It is also difficult to say if even in ideal world, with hardest, longest economcial stick from enraged West Russia could be isolated- world is simply to connected for it. But on other side, hoping sanctions and Russians do something is not viable long-term strategy for victory. And certainly not the one that can be sold to keep Ukraine in game; a country that already face massive mobiliziation/morale problems at least as severe as Russian ones. Keeping national morale in Ukraine at stable level will likely be one of points of this game in 2024.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:Ok, that is one way to look at it. How about what we did not see? Russian mothers were not standing arm in arm on the highways leading into Moscow to protect Putin either. Apathy cuts both ways frankly. Massive inaction, does not mean massive action in another direction.
Exactly, also my talking point in this debates for something like last 1500 pages. That is why Prigozhin march was for population like watching two pokemons fighting on limited arena, not some existential thing like Russia suddenly breaking (even civil war) or even more phantstically, partitioning itself into regions, like some in western Hemisphere (and silently even some Ukrainians) seemed to expect. Nothing of this sort happened even around Wagner disobedience.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:On this. Did you ever consider that Europeans, particularly Eastern Europeans are too close to the problem? Too much history, too much bias and just...too much? I hear this "westerners just don't get it" a lot. But maybe our perspective is a bit more unshadowed by Russia. In the West we know all about "grudging, cursing and complaining", we have built entire industries around those concepts. Our system looks entirely dysfunctional from the outside based on how much we disagree.
By means of "grudging, cursing and complaining" I meaned "social glue" and common human interactions that are thriving on it in Russia; yes, West managed to turn them into political arguments and ultimatelly define rules of civil society to tame them. It internalized, destilled and crucially politicized quarells as packages of issues (we call them ideas or values) to deal with in civilized way and go on. This is very different than post-Soviet way of complaining as social activity for sake of itself. And the latter one can be misleading for untrained eyes.
Ok, this is direction of this debate that ges nowhere- I was never sold for this "clueless Westerners and cassandric Eastern Europeans" narration nor propagated it here by any post; in fact I made several times a talking point we have in PL limited view of this conflict due to lack of nuclear perspective, like USA/Russia has. *
That being said- popular perception is what rules populations, and politians must hear their voters in long term. So about Russian will to continue war: yes, I think overal Western European public seriously underestimate role of certain areas of Russian psyche, while skipping over others. We literally observe how stereotypes are proven real on our eyes- Russians are throwing their males into meatgrinder with zeal that (most of) us would think impossible after WWII, without major sign of collapse, and seem to like it, or at the most- shrugg their shoulders. I tend to do a roundup over Russian infosphere (pro-Z, "opposition" and most important one- people following nachuism- i.e. not caring about it at all) every month or so in more details, and sadly don't there any visible signs of breaking or serious discontent. Even smallest, frankly. Yeah, they complain that winter is harsh, eggs are pricely and officials are corrupt; but so what?
I mean, comme on- after two years they still take actual volunteers into Storm-Z detachments, where chances of survival are like playing (nomen omen) Russian rulette with single-shot breechloader. Nobody will convince me this is normal in non-existential, non-religious war, that has all its cruelties streamlined online like if dozen Hannibal Lecters would suddenly open own legal YT channels. And yet, they go.
* Btw. I am not Eastern European.
I am Central one- that was formated by Latin culture and republicanism, very distinct from mix of orthodoxy and despotism that influenced (or was imposed on) terrains of modern Belarus, partly Ukraine and Balts...and Russia itself- the region we can correctly call Eastern Europe. This is common habit of throwing everyone east of Oder river into one sack "former Warsaw Pact". But historically, it isn't real.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:But that vs armed troops off the freakin leash marching on the capital...is something else entirely. Stuff exploding all over the place. Rich people continually trying to fly out windows.
That is good example of beformentioned misunderstanding...how many Russians not directly involved in war actually flew from windows (or met their deaths) since 2022? One dozen? Maybe two? Somebody important- an oligarch, his mistress or son? A politician perhaps? Nope. In Russian terms-often expressed in fears of real persecutions burned in their collective psyche by generations, with hot iron- Putin is still benevolent and very rational leader. It is his greatest claim to authority and fame; that is one of reasons he avoided mobilziation and wide repercussions for so long time, apart from material factors of course.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:The amount of effort and expense Russia is spending on "internal security". Evidence of extremely poor discipline and conditions within its military. All this stuff starts to stack up well beyond "I want a better cellphone plan."
I didn't see yet any data regarding their spending on internal security alone...it is interesting issue we didn't discussed here, btw.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:We project so much onto Russia - hope and fears. When we should spend more time just watching the damn duck. Is it walking and talking like a duck? Is it making weird sounds that in any other nation we would see as signs of strain? Russia is not in a good place. There is no doubt of that.
Oh, 100% agree it is not. But before it realizes it is in dark s..thole (and cause of whom), a lot of water in Volga will need to pass, like some old Russian writer told. Btw.- take adjustment on sheer size of this country; any social processess there takes very slow turn. UA doesn't have such comfort.
4 hours ago, The_Capt said:Finally, what does that mean to the war? Well the big one is that Russia's ability to field a modern military able to conduct operational level offensive operations is in serious doubt. They had the goods two years ago but that old lady filmed on that first week was right all along - The RA of 2021 is in Ukrainian fields pushing up sunflowers. What is on the ground now is largely conscripts and essentially holding on while being wasted on small tactical suicide missions. We were all surprised that they could even hold the lines they have, but there you go. War, or at least this war, has shifted towards defensive advantage, that much is pretty much settled. That had nothing to do with Russian prowess or resources, and everything to do with shifts over the last 40 years.
Yup, we - or rather Ukraine- are in clinch phase of conflict, at least till late spring. I am not at all in "doom and gloom" camp here, but frankly I am very concern by Kremlin's reading of events and overall attitudes in second half of 2023; they visibly managed to catch breath from something looking like deathspirall. Even Putin seems to be more and more frank with its population, calling SMO war pretty freely and admitting it will take at least 2-3 years of slaughter until West "come to its senses".
Anwyay, we will see. Both camps here are watching into tealeaves at the moment and hoping.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
Every society is about "too bad for them, so long as I am fine" to a greater or lesser extent...right up to the point they are not. Every society can put up with only so much stress and then stuff starts to break. Russia already saw hundreds of thousands of educated talent bolt in the first year of this war, so we know that "moscovite policy" is definitely not working for some.
War can unite - as we see in Ukraine. Or they can break due to overwhelming stress. The signs of creaking are pretty obvious in Russian society right now, but what we have not seen is that turn into something that metastasizes....yet. But for some reason we cut Russia nearly unlimited slack in this regard, while at the same time any mis-steps on the part of Ukraine are the end of days.
I don't see any serious signs of societal crack as yet. And partly our differences in perception is cultural thing- for example, from my observation Westerners tend to take Russians openly grudging, cursing and complains as signs of them breaking just in a moment...while this is normal and not even particulary alarming state of things there. Even in military.
Now about Prig...yes and no. Prigozhin "coup" was treated by larger part of population as "war at the top"- struggle between and within Kremlin elites. It was dent in their system of power and authority to be sure, but not societal crack we are talking about here- that means, it was not manifestiation of aversion to this dumb war. Opposite, actually; it is clear that A.D. 2024 many segments of society a posteriori read it as warning of what will happen if MoD will not wage this war effectivelly enough. Plus it was self- made by Putin himself, giving way too much space to Wagner. Note also how much more effective Russian military appear to be when tsar finally, after one bloody year, decided to silence Girkinoids and similar guys. It was also Putin's personal mistake.
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:Russia is not NK, not even close - now there is nation with a different cultural calculus.
Yup, these are even different civilizations, with very different views on individual, collective, hierarchy etc. ...and yet, here we are: they probbaly tanked 350 k casualties, excluding wounded....and they still recruit actual volunteers and support for war, both official and unoficial, seems to be high or at least stable.
In my personal opinion such dynamic of slaughter in unnecessary, conventional war would likely cause serious political troubles even in modern China with its 1400 mlns of atomized consuments and likely break North Korea (totalitarian regimes tend to be more stiff in this regard)... but this is subjective theory.
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:Russia can never break under sanctions or external pressure.
It probably can. But not under these sanctions. At least - not in timespan that would be acceptable for Ukraine. And that is putting aside big question of what "breaking" actually means, because it is understood very differently, depending where somebody stands.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:The key to this is how much discontent is there that we aren't seeing signs of. We know there's a lot of grumbling, but how deep does it go? We don't know, but Putin's actions are making it more likely that there will be a mass revolt rather than less likely.
Like above- people in muscovia grudge constantly; it is character, way of communication and even way of orienting social hierarchy. I would be very surprised if we see any real discontent in the form of true social pressure on Putin to end this war. And even then there are ways of dealing with it by Kremlin. Given ubiqiuty of state controlling and even shaping formal organziations (by traditional ways...spies), only true form of discontent could be spontaneus combustion of emotions in one place - that means, traditional, unpolitical riots. These are usually very local and can be redirected toward scapegoats very easily...like nationalists complains were directed at Gerasimov.
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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:
I don’t think the risk is with Putin. It is the Russian people. Despite our tendency to dehumanize them and plaster all sorts of broad brush assumptions, they are in the end people. As these stressors stack up over time eventually something is going to break.
This is not about dehumanziation, but cultural (+physical) environment and nature of muscovite polity. Problem is there are no symptoms of it being even near the entry point for breaking due to sanctions in short term. Russia as a whole is not flourishing (some circles visibly do, however -like busnessmen engaging in Belarus and Kazakhstan), but it never did in last decades anyway. Overall, for average
subjectcitizen, it is not great, not terrible at the moment. Sure there are some quarters in towns that are literally freezing- but hey, it's Russia, right? It was like that 5 years ago, 10 and 20. "People in a city 50 km from me are freezing and neighbou's son got blown up in a war? Well, it's good i'ts not me; probably they deserve it anyway, blyat. Should be smarter and have more connections."Naturally, Putin is not Stalin and Russia is only half-fascist right now- and in spheres where it is getting fully authoritarian, it is pushed rather reluctantly from Kremlin. After all, mafia-state is way easier to manage under normal circumstances than dictatorship or totalitarianism. It disperses responsibility for bad governing more evenly.
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1 hour ago, OBJ said:
Source: Bild with reference to a secret Bundeswehr document
Details: Bild noted that, according to the document, escalation between NATO and Russia may take place as early as February 2024.
In a classified document (Top Secret – For Official Use Only), the German Federal Ministry of Defence outlines a potential "Path to Conflict" between Russia and NATO is detailed. The actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and the inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025.
We are waiting then. For now entire Russian Army cannot take 2 km bridgehead in God-forgotten village for already...what, 4 months?
Meanwhile, Russian propagandists continue their Anti-Anglo-Saxon crusade. UK is deemed to fall:
On serious note, this clip from droning of Russians is nothing particular, except apparent weight of explosive material used. Relatively rare example of entire building collapsing due to a single drone detonating inside.
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Pretty close to frontlines.
There are photos of supposedly this IL 22, with tail visibly shot by some airburst, but others claim it was older photo from other operation.
https://twitter.com/theneworctimes/status/1746881002037735449
If ture that could exclude collision in the air.
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Member of Ukrainian defence council claims Russians lost A-50 somewhere near Berdyansk and Il-22 was damaged.
Big news if true, but we will need to wait for confirmation.
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1 hour ago, poesel said:
How come that they can press those company workers into service? I thought Petersburg & Moscow were mostly exempt from such actions?
These are not mobiks but rather...pressed volunteers or similar term. These places often consist of unregistred migrant workers from outsourced companies (you can check videos from event, most workers look central-asiatic). There are hundreds of ways these people can end in service, usually with silent knowledge of their local co-workers. Bribes, blackmails, sometimes little coercion, all builded on ignorance of law and naturally lack of NGO's that would help in normal country. Usually exercized on people without local connections, legal permits or even knowledge of Russian. Reportedly sometimes they are unaware what is going on until they see gate of barracks. And big cities in Mordor are full of such potentiall recruits, thus why there. Locals know about it and are very content of such replacements.
Overall these are not large numbers, perhaps in low thousands total. There were some detailed articles in opposition press like Meduza half year ago about procedures; sometimes recruiting office need to meet quotas pressed by top, so they reach to their secret "fishing pools" full of chornyje lyudi ("blacks"). Curiously, there were even scandals between some officers that were in official Russian press, some less patriotic not wanting to say were best places for fishing are. Naturally, bribes from workers were involved.
It's probably good job to be recruiting officer in Russia right now. Stressfull but profitable.
51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:Sensation! Russian captured one of those notorious and elusive Polish mercenery in Krynky!
Native Polish speakers can evaluate level of copium %)
This guy says usual thing, he lives in Pulawy and came to Ukraine for money, Russian shelled Krynky, his Ukrianian unit fled and abandoned him wounded. In captivity he feels good, even better then in ZSU, got proper treatment
FSB always delivers best Lolz Content. Lately they captured another "Polish spy" who naturally kept in his room German flakctern jacket, book about SS, nunchako... and Polish constitution.
Because, you know.
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Russians getting better at reconstructing Mordor...
This giant fire is in Wildberries warehouse near Petersburg. What is peculiar is there are rumours it was set on fire by disgruntled workers (these places are often used as recruiting pools for war, including foreign nationals from Central Asia).
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Reportedly Russian local authorities in Belgorod started to fortify...bus stops. So war is coming to them, albeit in rather odd form.
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POV: russian mobik riding on tanks through forest. Night is dark and full of DPCIM.
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2 hours ago, Kinophile said:
His opinion. Open to rebuttal...
Michał Senajko summed him up well: The 8th of January strikes were aimed at Kryvyi Rih, Khmelnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. They used more ballistic missiles in the mix. Ballistic missiles can only be intercepted by Patriots and none of those locations is protected by them. There're only two Patriot batteries in the whole country. Your supposition that they got damaged or destroyed is based on nothing and amounts to disinformation.
That being said, I seriously doubt muscovites mounted this sophisticated attack only to hit blocks full of civilians. There were no credible reports of AFU military targets in recent attacks excepts rumours about airports, but we may know about them long afterwards.
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53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
The guy from the right is mercenery from one of "Global South" countries %)
Damn at first sight I thought they wrapped him in Hamas headband.
Vivisection of type of Russian drone.
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6 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:
I know all that.
What I'm saying is: Are the uploaded FPV / grenade drop videos just a few examples of many more such succesful attacks? Are several hundred troops on both sides really killed by drones each day? Or are the uploaded videos pretty much all there is?
In the latter case, the real drone casualty numbers would be just 10-20 a day. Nothing war changing.
Drones still have a big impact against vehicles and supply depots, and as artillery spotters, but that's a different thing.
My question is about the direct attacks on infantry. I am starting to think they are a bit like WW2 strafing runs. Scary, they do kill a few people, big impact on morale, but not really a factor in winning or losing the war.
FPV kamikaze are as rule used like flying ammo against already detected targets, while quadrocpoters with granades can do "hunt" on their own or serve as dual recon/bomber role- so they are effectively two different categories of weapons, the latter working in tandem with mortar and artillery teams (there are naturally also some hybrids). As I read from volunteers, there are commanders in AFU who adhere to very strict usage of kamikaze, forbiding wasting them on single Russians. Others prefer to use all their ordonance at hand and see Russians doing "Benny Hill runs" in their crosshairs. So even one brigade can have different outcomes and drone usage.
Overal, it seems scale of attacks differs greatly in different sectors. Perhaps @Haiduk will be aware of any statistics regarding actual personnel losses due to smaller drones. But as above- they shouldn't be viewed as separate weapon systems on their own but a kind of enablers on micro tactical scale. Btw. tanks and IFV's are also in this category, direct effects of their fire is probably minimal in overal casualties- but crucial in larger context.
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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Russian aggressive expansion into Africa forced France to withdraw from countries (CAR, Burkina-Faco, Mal) with strategical resources - uran, gold, etc. China is also rapidly expanding own influence on this continent, when European countries weaken under bla-bla-bla of "colonizers legacy". So, who knows, if EU afraid to fight and just avoid this, maybe Ukraine will di this work...
Of all Western major powers, France is by far most assertive when comes to actually puting their boots on the ground when necessary to defend its interests - scale of recent operations in North Africa was impressive. I doubt that progressive, "omg opressive colonizers are back!" part of public opinion plays any role in their withdrawal. Frenchmen + several African allies simply can't be policemen in whole Maghreb, it's unsustainable in diplomatic, economical and military terms for Paris. There is new, free market of security services for African warlords and they choose cheaper option, which currently means Wagner. Elysee cannot keep their tropps against will of local political elites; anticolonial sentiments are not deciding factor- potentiall costs for FRA are. And we see effects of this process in recent rising of islamists in Maghreb.
But yeah, Ukrainian half-ally, half-mercenary organization seems like interestng counter to muscovites in this new reality. Still, it's too early to tell.
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3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:
Both your posts enhance my understanding (and awe, and some disbelief)of the humongous amounts of money that are related to war. It also shows me that there are much more people that make much more money from investing in war, and war-related enterprises, than I realised. Why would they choose peace??
That's nature of modern industrialized warfare, but that doesn't mean they decide when to go to war. Ultimatelly, it is politicians who are calling the shots and war effort of this scale is never something that is treated lightly, in economical terms only. I am pretty sure that even most mafioso-style Russian officials, industrialists and oligarchs are also occassionaly pretty scarred where all this is heading and would love to take a deep breath, when some ceasefire would be made.
A propos discussions about peace talks from 2022- Yaroslav Trofimov wrote a chapter about in his newest book (still need to read it); he does represent views close to Kyiv government and is likely not totally impartial here, but on the other side he has access to good sources. As far as I know, he did not relate to Naftali Bennett's interview though:
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4 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:
And on average Ukraine fires about 4000 - 7000 of these per DAY(!) and the Russians about 20.000 per DAY(!). And that is just 155 mm shells.
Russians don't produce 155mm shells but 152 mm, which are also used in older Ukrainian pieces that survived and still consist significant part of AFU artillery park. This variety should be taken into consideration when talking about ammo disparity of both sides (I know that year ago Ukrainian artillery had serious, even dramatic shortages of these, but several companies in the West produce them and they probably managed to reach some stable- if low- plateau of supply by now).
It should be very interesting to compare overal price of production of this type of shell by muscovites with their industrial capacities, but we lack concrete data and only have approximations afaik- and these can be very tricky when talking about Russian economy and industry.
PGM's are also an issue here; katsaps rumped up their production significantly, which sadly was visible in better performance of their arillerymen in 2023. Old dumb barrages a la Seelow Heights are rarer now
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/08/24/russia-increased-artillery-shell-production/
Europe also slowly develop its support in this regard (too slow to my taste, but still):
Plus we also use broad Western connections in the world; lately have flood of videos of Krab crews loading Indian-made ammo.
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35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
First time I've seen on own eyes the video, intercepted from Russian FPV, equipped with machine vision and autolocking of target. More, it has thermal mode. It's still raw, but already tests on frontline.
My friends from Ministry of DIgitalization, let hurry up with our solutions
For those, who is not in the thread. The pilot reach the target and marked it from the top, further the drone makes everything itself. What is change:
1. EW cupolas now are useless
2. Experienced pilots are no needed
3. The losing of pictures near the land is no matter (range of fly will incrace in two times).
4. Moving target will hit more precisely.
I really worried about this. You understans role of FPVs in this war
It seems Ukrainians also successfully work in this field; here drones possibly working without GPS (some believe observed from Warmate) reportedly targeting two pieces of Pantsir.
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Epic Russian mobik.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
German managed to produce thousands of tanks despite the USAF and RAF literally razing entire cities to the ground. Russia's campaign in Ukraine is more like German's bombings of London... more terror than practical.
WWII analogies have its limits. One missed factor here is that during WWII continent was literally shut deaf along warring sides lines. One could find an industrial target worth to bomb in Germany or occupied Europe in two ways:
- Air reconaissance
- HUMINT, usually local resistance- which was risky and not 100% accurate.
Even then, given lack of precision of WWII bombers, it was difficult to actually hit smaller workshops; one of reasons why dispersion was generally successfull in Germany and partially Japan.
Now if Ukraine will try to disperse its industry, it will face much harder task. Keeping security is way more difficult in the era of Iphones, social media and internet. It is damn difficult to cut usage of cellpones by soldiers in actual trenches alone; infinitelly more so behind frontiles. Also, there is little doubt muscovites have many eyes in Ukraine itself- SBU can crush traitors constantly, but the more smaller production places ones have = more probability they will be discovered.
It takes a text message or small chat on myriad different media (which are not regulated nor cut off between UA/RU citizens) and 2 min surf on Google Maps for Russians to find exact location...then coordinates can go to muscovite military directly, almost in real time. Add that modern missiles, even crappy ones from Soviet times, still have way more likehood of accuratelly hitting their small targets than Allied planes from WWII ever had.
Than there are economic and strategic issues we discussed previously. I would like very much if Europe would manage to fund long-term, dispersed and almost self-sufficent industry in Ukraine itself, but frankly doubt it will be possible on levels of WWII. Different circumstances.
Note it does not apply to drones and their parts, which are novelty enough to not even being registered as military help.
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41 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Hmm? So? They've shot hundreds of missiles at Ukraine and yet BTR4s are still rolling out.
Russia sees to be able to somewhat hit targets, IF they get through the UKR AD, IF they fire enough assets. They ruined a lot of UKRs black sea grain export infrastructure, but that was before the UKR AD was strengthened in the south and was all open, and the public and known.
Rheinmetall AG is certainly unconvinced by the Russian threat.
Yes and no. Production of shells of bigger calibres is different than vehicles- parts for latter latter can be produced independently and assembled partly manually even in medium-sized workshops. Shells needs compact production lines, especially when produced in mass needed in this war. Can they run and disperse production? They already try:
Speaking of which: note it will take several years before they manage to run this line, I assume it is because both costs and complexity and security reasons. AA cover is another issue: from what our experts say here, Ukrainians are already very short of certain types of missiles. Any bigger object to defend makes problems worse. So will they do? Most probably will try dispersed production; but beside smaller batches, they would need to rump up masive investments projects for it.
44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:I refuse to think ill of Zeleban. The stress and worry that is swirling around him is nothing I would wish on anybody. I am just sorry he's not taking advantage of the opportunity to learn from people and to counteract a lifetime of misinformation, disinformation, and misunderstandings about how life is outside of the ex-Soviet sphere:
The ban is for 2 weeks. Provided he doesn't do something STUPID like try to duck the ban, he'll be back after then. If there's no improvement then the ban becomes permanent.
Steve
He did spiced up discussion here, give him that.
) are puting pressure very nicely.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Video from incident; note smoke on the left of the screen, likely coming from AA:
New theory is that there was other plane with prisoners for swap in vicinity, but it wasn't this one. A lot of fakes and disinfo are flying so we will need to wait till it clarify. For now it is highly likely somebody's AA was involved, so it is not accident. Russian Duma now reportedly prepares appeal to USA to stop supplying missiles to Ukraine.