Beleg85
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Posts posted by Beleg85
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ISIS Khorasan, but they did claimed responsibility wherever they can already several times, so treat with caution.
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6 minutes ago, Grigb said:
RU Nat says Shpeznaz started clearing operations 30 minutes ago, which is at least an hour late.
Not that it would be famous for its organizational culture and speed of reactions, so all arguments for supposed false flag pointing to the fact services were passive does not sound legit. It's the same bardak like in the army, possibly even worse.
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Good points from guy from intelligence specialising in Russian securty topics, naturally just observations, not analysis despite first sentence:
https://twitter.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1771250686065328470
MASSACRE IN MOSkVA - own analysis All the following assumptions are based on my own experience and observation of open Russian sources. The first factor is a lot of "good filming" of materials and the speed of appearance on the Russian network strongly reminds me of the информационный каскад "information cascades" way of promoting information by the Russian services...Let us remember that the Russian network is heavily controlled by Moscow.Another is the time of carrying out the operation, i.e. right after the president's post-election position was established, which indicates that it would not cause image problems during the elections. The actions of the Russian services and the means used to control the situation indicate that these services were very well prepared for this particular operation (which is not the Russian rule).I noticed the lack of the typical "healthy nervousness" in the operation of special units, which indicates that they were previously ready for this type of operation... I estimate that if this was an operation of "Putin's opponents" or "armed opposition" it would have had a greater impact during the elections... than now From a cold perspective, this points to "False Flag" operations and of course there are questions about how it will be sold in the media in Russia and around the world...The Russians are building tension and the message is spreading to the world.Best regards and thank you.It may not be relevant who is perpetrator, but how Kremlin plans to use it. -
7 minutes ago, Hapless said:
No doubt more details (and 'more details') will come out, but the timing seems awfully convenient.That's true; several days after elections, concretization of creation of new armies by Shoigu and Peskov comments is dense chain of events.
On other side if these will be proven to be Caucasians/Arabs, it will be difficult to blame attack on Ukrainians even for Kremlin. No doubt we will see postcards with Bandera near them, but overall not many people will buy it even there.
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14 minutes ago, Hapless said:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/shooting-blast-reported-concert-hall-near-moscow-agencies-2024-03-22/
Quick tinfoil hat take:
Putin secures election 'legitimacy'
Peskov says it's no longer a Special Military Operation, it's a War
Terror attack in Moscow
...
MobilisationMost probably, but is could also be some Caucasus issue- these dangers ddn't go away by fact of state waging war.What we know so far clips with shooters clearly show coordination among them (not some gangs infighting) and are now widely spread by accounts of katsap propaganda.
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35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade again in action and makes us happy with own exellent videos.
Here is a video how K-2 battalion HQ controls and manage process of the battle - 6 of Russian armor moved through Zolotarivka village (Siversk direction) on positions of 1st mech battalon of 54th brigade. Combined operation of mortars and artillery of 54th brigade (participated 120 mm mortar, D-30 howitzer and MT-12 with indirect fire) and FPV team of 118th TD brigade. Russian column was destroyed on AT-mines and arty fire. 5 pieces of armor were immobilized, one tank withdrew and was hit by FPV, but survuived. Disembarked infantry was eliminated by grenade frops from Mavics and by small arms of infantry - total 42 ememy infantrymen
Very interesting video, showing how such CIC can work in field conditions. Still a lot of work seem to be done by mines (some are said to be placed by ground drones overnight, which are normally rather rare sight). Also amazing anti-tank guns are still effectively used on the frontlines.
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3 hours ago, billbindc said:
The replacement issue cuts several ways. Clearly no consensus pick worth the risk to the boyars has arisen to challenge Putin. But at the same time, Putin has not been able to launch any real sort of purge against the elements of the state that with varying degrees of passivity watched Prigozhin's cooption of and near takeover of the security and military apparat.
He didn't launch it, because there was no need to do it while costs could outweight benefits; support for Prig was tepid at very best and passivity of the apparatus very much goes with package of the system Putin himself devised, so he probably didn't expected great and genuine deeds of confidence in him anyway (as clip on eve of the war visibly demonstrated). Also, worth to remember he is not bloodthirsty tyrant, rather KGB guy who has many files in his secret closet with kompromats on all his cooperatives. He murders only when he is forced to. And Russians appreciate that, as strange as it sounds.
3 hours ago, billbindc said:Zolotov still sits atop the Rosgvardiya despite ample evidence that he knew what was coming and did not order his troops to intervene. The GRU/FSB/MIC and state officials who were similarly aware are still happily in place. Zolotov even got Wagner's heavy weapons. Dyumin continues to run the Tula government.
There is a lot of tuth in that, but note many of beforementioned gentlemen could secretely act in accordance with Putin or even being his messangers, who did a lot to extinguish fire caused by sudden march of Wagnerites and negotiate the problem rather than further fuel civil war. Certainly Zolotov could, being rare example of his personal collegue and actual friend. We all were amazed here with the fact that old Prig didn't immediatelly end with his head on Kremlin walls, but that was smarter and more stable solution for Putin himself, I'll give him that. I don't read it as weakness, rather proof that times changed a little and Kremlin currently does not prefer to finish things the old, gorish way. Blood looks bad on Armani suit.
3 hours ago, billbindc said:This is one of those cases where application of a Western standard does lead us to a bad conclusion. We think 'well, he did make a lot of people vote for him and he did face down a rebellion so he must have legitimacy' and it's just not true. It's especially not true in a very specific to Russia way a la 1905 to 1917. We possibly just haven't seen the second act yet.
Well, I prefer to exorcise the Ghost of Historical Analogy before it start to scarry people in this thread again, giving us another 10 pages of arguments.
Events could be interpreted that way, but it's very optmistic to be honest and even if true, unlikely to shorten bloodbath in Ukraine. There are no visible cranks in entire system on the scale of 1905 or 1917, not mentioning the fact it is designed very differently, more resiliant to stress (bloody mafias, they were always quite flexible) and working in entirely different geopolitical environment.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
This is very true of the Russian population. While I have understanding and sympathy for why they act the way they do, they should know better. They should be better. They should do better. Since they aren't able to do that on their own, then someone needs to do something to put them on a better path.
Add to it our (=broadly Western) reactions to Russian imperialism and hubris. Looking at mistakes in our policy regarding Russia in long decades after fall of USSR (for example every single US president wanted some misty "reset" with Putin), and one sees it almost always we were too soft and cooperative, because "Russia is as it is" rather than too harsh on them. That's why I am more concerned with our potential accomodation with its aggresve heritage rather than with (potentiall) fact that some innocent people in Muscovia may be harmed by throwing them into one bag with nationalists. It's simple process of drawing conclusions and learning. Especially that many Russian oppositionist leaders already have less than stellar conduct since start of this war- very, very few of them will straight away say that Ukrainians have simply right ot defend themselves and that they are fully independtnt country, not some imagined "Slavic brothers".
2 hours ago, billbindc said:I agree with much of this which is why I disagree with the way in which the 'election' has been framed both as the thing itself and the interpretation of the result. As Anne Applebaum pointed out in the last day or so, much of Western media actually pretended that it was a plebiscite in the way we understand voting to mean. It clearly was not but rather a propaganda exercise in both legitimizing Putin at home and to a lesser extent delegitimizing voting abroad. To my mind, that's virtually the only real conclusion one can take from the event.
Yup, more or less this is the case.
I wouldn't agree that Putin suffers from serious legitimacy crisis, though; there is simply no replacement for him as a leader. He steered biggest country on planet into quagmire he cannot leave, entire hull of this ship is cracking and croaking by chasing this legendary White Whale of multipolar world order, but so far everyone knows there is only one captain on this ship. I mean apart from this clown who took his hat for a moment, but soon was thrown over board like it should be. And the other guide from lowest deck who was bold enough to challange openly, but this issue was done too. Overall, chain of command is known and clear.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
So what? Well it basically means that we have little actual insight into how much Russian’s really support (or not) Putin, nor do we really have insight on support for this war based on this last bit of theatre. We do know that it is not zero, but it is also not “110%”. Nor has it led to answering the real question: how does support turn into opposition? Instead we get the usual pre-genocidal nonsense of “only good Russian is a dead one” and hand wringing from the sidelines.
Hmm I never subscribed to this vengeful nonsense either, if only for its massive simplifications (you definitelly have people of great civil courage there like Kara Mourza or, more controversially, Navalny himself; a pitty so few of them). But on other side that doesn't mean we should look at the world through pink glassess and project on Russia our own expectations how authoritarian system should look like (like folks still waiting Muscovia magicaly falling apart into ethnic pieces). This picture is often created by mediation of liberal Russian emigrees, who mostly try to avoid difficult issues, stick to safe topics like corruption and their conclusion is usually that Russians are just fooled victims of bad old dictator- which was btw. Navalny's greatest sin. Self-pitty is their driver here, not empathy, and that is why so many Ukrainians are pissed on them for.
As I understand their reactions, they are already sensing return of comfortable, relativistic narration "not us, it was Putin's fault" that West fell pray to so many times in history. While in reality it's Russians' long-lasting, deep-rooted mix of collective passivity, brutal domestic culture and historically- proven shauvinism that let them here; Putin is their creation, responsibility and lot. Note it is neither still not North Korea level of control; Russians are not cut off from information like Koreans and have basically unobstructed freedom of movement both internally and abroad.
Practically, we have no means of determining what Russia would look like within softer regime; it was political fiction long time before this conflict started. Important questions now are: how it's economy will hold in this, likely few additional years long war; If it will not hold well, what political and military means Kremlin is ready to apply; Will Europe have guts to supply UA through this period, especially when US fall out, and what would be our reactions to potentiall turmoil in RU (judging by our reactions to Prig's coup, not very proactive, but this attitude may change in time).
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19 hours ago, billbindc said:
We have actual evidence that without 22 million fake votes, Putin would have hit 51% and there was intense coercion and very low turnout. That almost certainly means he would lose a fair election.
These guys aren't magic. They are sordid, often fumbling, siloviks.
Shilpkin's study is not the evidence- it's approximation of voting anomalies based on various, quite complicated statistical methods. Russian liberals naturally like to call it "ingenious" and whole plethora of superlatives, but even if it is close to truth, it's still just estimate (there are others who put fraud ballots even higher numbers, like 30+ mlns). Especially that turn-out ratio is very murky this time due to war, immigration, online voting and overall atmosphere. Also note 51% isn't any barrier, since there is no one opposition candidate. It is certain some voting base is by default already "lended" by Putin to certified opposition, like Kharitonov (a communist candidate harnessing sentiments of mostly older people, who under more normal circumstances would also support current president).
More solid are perhaps exit-polls made by foreign polling companies abroad, but they are naturally very limited in their usefulness too. There is interesting logic there- while in Western countries Putin generally lost royally according to exit polls (like last times, circa 15%; his support in Germany for example was unexpectedly low this time), in Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and several other states that absorbed a lot of Russian emigrees or are popular travel destinations, his support was something like 30-40%, with accordingly high amount of refusals to questions.
So what we can only be sure is only that Russian society is depoliticized, hunkering down and Putin is only viable candidate. Like it was in last years.
About second part you are right- siloviki are crude when comes to electional frauds. They always were. But still I see no reason to see unexpectedly high official ratings of Putin as some sort of desperation on behalf of Kremlin or tectonic changes in Russian psyche. There are other, simpler explenations, including current propaganda needs, over-zelous local officials and overall geopolitical situation.
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:
There is plenty of evidence that there is a disconnect between the claimed topline numbers for Putin and what Russians actually want and clearly that disconnect is driven by coercion:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/world/europe/putin-russia-election.html
For sure they are topped, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't win anyway in fair (or semi-fair) elections. Genuine potentiall differences in these numbers- 50, 75 or 85%- are not significant from current Kremlin perspective in themselves until Putin wins; and he wins in every possible computation anyway. Most important thing is to show that society support his President in such difficult time- it's the only cause of such high ratings. He could publish more modest results, but it's safer to shore up public will a little bit.
1 hour ago, billbindc said:As to whether or not Putin would seize on the legitimacy of a real and decisive popular mandate, it's worth keeping in mind that victory in Ukraine can only be achieved in the capitols of the EU and in Washington DC where the image of Russia as a repressive dictatorship of the silovik-tariat is extremely useful to those demanding aid be given to the Ukrainian government. He would grab such and advantage with both hands if he could.
I doubt he see things in that way- it would be rational for sure, but not many things in this regime are.
First- emperor of "awakened" all-Russia will not be manipulating his own election ritual in a way to flatten tastes of some bootlickers in the West. Russia is stronk and mighty, so they should better deal with it "as it is" (to use Putin's own words, repeated ad nauseam). Not to mention these people in the West who want to cut support for Ukraine does not need excuses; everybody knows Muscovia is not democratic. It may actually take off pretensional burden from their shoulders and bring back clear, old version of darwinistic international politics they all love and like to talk so much about.
Second- we should free ourselves from thinking that West is point of reference in everything Kremlin did or does. It wasn't like that in the past, it is even less true today. I would even go as far to say that Putin may be ambitionally testing here how his new, "multipolar" world order works in reality. After all, West didn't care that much when dealing with other bad boys like China, Saudis, Israel etc.
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1 hour ago, billbindc said:
I mean seriously folks...if Putin had a large majority of natural voters who would vote for him do you really think he'd pass on the legitimacy that sort of result represents? Of course not.
Yes, I think he would.
Putin's regime crack on democracy, like Luka's, Kazakh etc. are products of progressive uncertainty on part of aparatus of power, which includes a lot of fears (real or token), irrational decisions, systemic inertia and lack of real data available to ruler. In some ways, this process it is like with decision of invading Ukraine- regime is drawn into certain types of behaviour the more it is in this mud. Except the process lasts much longer here. To organize these mock elections is simpler and cheaper solution for Putin, not necessarly a proof that he would loose the real ones. Much less it is the evidence that more Russians silently opppose his regime now than in the past (like significant part of emigre liberals like to explain it).
Real democratic processess are a lot, like throwing a coin for Kremlin- even if they would secure the vote anyway, they instinctively push away this idea. Especially in times of war, globals struggles, villain NATO barking on the corner. Even meagre democracy also needs some debates, tiresome compaigns, talking to some peasants in villages lost in Syberia...a lot of hassle, costing tonns of money and effort that should be beyond Tsar dignity *. Strange, awkward and ulitimatelly hollow ritual, good for Western hypocrites, where financial oligarchy rules anyway (at least from Kremlin perspective). Add that Putin is genuinly convinced that Americans and CIA are puting their fingers into every election around him, so- like milions of citizens remembering USSR firmly believe- people can be simply communally programmed into being "nazis" and traitors just like that.
We will never know, but personally I had little doubt that Putin would most probably win every major election in recent Russian history even without murders and authoritarian propaganda (he would have problems with changing constitution, though)- in some scenarios, he could even rule like Orban in Hungary, just by buying media by friendly oligarchs and controlling judiciary, if not for the militaristic needs of Russian state. But it would cost a lot of effort and always bring some risk, so why even bother? There was always little to no alternatives to Putin in minds of Russians in last 20 years anyway; probably even Navalny was just a phenomena, representing some resentments against corruption but not being taken seriously enough as statesman figure in muscovite sense. So, here we are.
*Probably clips of Buffallo Man on January 4th were like a cold shower for elites of many non-democratic states on this planet; a visible confirmation what can happen if you let the mob to stick their heads too high.
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Regarding recent Russian strike on Ukrainian AA column, Butusov channel confirmed it was Patriot launcher.
-2 launchers were destroyed (no mention of radar, but another vehicle was destroyed too) by overal 3 Iskanders.
- This battery was used very extensively in recent weeks, likely it was reason so many Russian planes started to fall down. This allowed muscovites to broadly locate the place of the radar; likely rest was done by visual confirmation by drones.
- Ukrainians knew in last moment that rockets zeroed on them, and according to journalist they did cardinal mistake here: instead of scrambling, they formed compact column that was to leave the place. It didn't manage on time. 9 crew members sadly died.
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Hmm...not very reliable source, but Ukrainians clearly like to spread some panic before Putin will crown himself again.
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RUS get to 3 [in fact 2- third fly away] Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters. Everything observed from RUS drone. First, one missile with a cluster warhead flew (judging by the number of charges, Tornado rather than Iskander) and after two damaged machines could not fly away - single hits with precision ammunition.
Unfortunately, in the current conditions, the Russian reconnaissance and strike complex has achieved the efficiency it was expected to have before the war. In 2022, for many reasons, it did not work out, in 2023 it worked on average, but unfortunately this year we already see the mythical <5 minutes for HVT (high-value targets). Currently, there is no margin for error for Ukrainians. Of course, this is only the result of the fact that RUS drones fly 40-80 km at home in the Ukrainian hinterland.
Event took place 11.03; in one of helicopters both pilots were killed according to other Ukrianian channels (as always,treat his considerations with grian of salt whenc omes to details, but clip seems genuine. Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines)
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47 minutes ago, Carolus said:
Teplinsky is apparently alive, and the Thirteen guy was killed by Kadyrovites after starting beef with them.
No idea what was on that ship.
I don't see a reason to kill Teplinsky. Isn't he the idiot who only ordered meat assaults and wasted Russian material by sending them into narrow approaches at Krynky?
Ukraine should aim to keep as many of the old guard in Russia alive during the war. Their corruption and incompetence is 30% of Ukrainian war power (the rest is half Western tech, half massive titanium balls and grit).
Why risk a motivated up-and-coming nationalist to take his spot? Someone who has the kind of brains Putin would normally keep out of the higher ranks?
Interesting rumours.
1. Tieplinsky is not an idiot, he was one of more "known" Russian generals of (reportedly and relatively to others) some better standing among soldiers. He doesn't (didn't?) shy away from visiting edge of frontlines. Also, some connected him to group of generals that Kremlin was unsure of during Prig's coup. It seems his death is a rumour so far.
2. 13th was known source of still some level of independence , it's amazing how many milbloggers get killed/canceled/commited suicides in different ways already...if story about Chechens will confirm, it may be actually more than a common brawl. But his pciture seems fake- he was bearded several days ago.
3. What an idiot installed listening post on big ship in the middle of flat nowhere, when Ukrainians fly drones day and night, have thermal cameras and actually enjoy rare electonical advantage in the area? even reaching it with supplies would be difficult.
On other side, clip with Ukrainian MIG 29 shot down by own air defence 8th of march resurfaced.
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10 hours ago, Kinophile said:
They're pretty polarized personally on domestics, as I understand it, so travelling and acting together on this issue (Ukraine) is significant?
Perhaps our Polski friends can elaborate?
It's anniversary visit for 25 years in NATO, at least on the surface- so no major decisions will be taken. You are correct, visit by both PM and president is rather unusual and may be connected to polarized political scene here (one theory say some DC officials think Duda may have some better vibe with Republicans in US than other world leaders and can be used as small leverage/lobby to convince them, but it is far-fetched in my opinion). Both camps speak in unilateral voice for support for Ukraine, though, and Sikorski is animating whomever he can behind the scenes for several months already. So no big news probably; Biden may want to shore crucial NATO countries for the future in case Orange Guy win the race.
Perhaps worth to check this article, it's CNN but since they have good contacts in Pentagon it may go beyond another clickbait. 100k shells a month to Ukraine doesn't sound that bad, if realistic.
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13 minutes ago, Offshoot said:
Six hours later and this twitter post has been deleted. From the link still showing (https://t.co/DmPZ389pGD) is this rebuttal
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1766460369357168921
He modified after consultations. More discussions here, sorry but have little time to translate now. Mandarins on the matter seems to disagree, except that these are likely MAN KAT trucks (which could also be used outside Patriot battery) and that convoy was likely carrying some rocket assets; some afterexpolsions are visible, reportedly (I don't see any though).
Russian claim in clip in not necessarly valid, description could be made by anyone and TASS and other ragencies claimed Patriot. I guess we will need to wait, probably milnets close to AFU circles in many coutries will have valid rumours in incoming weeks.
What is concerning and Wolski is right about is that we have plenty more videos with precise Russian strikes deep behind Ukrainian lines in last weeks/months, where they fly pretty unmolested with their drone assets.
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11 minutes ago, Carolus said:
I just saw this too. Some people say the debris looks more like PATRIOT trucks (so part of the German donation), not S300.
Yup, unfortunatelly they do, but others say it my be one type of soviet launcher Certainly Russians didn't spared their big rocket on it.. Crew seem to feel way too secure so far behind frontlines. Unless these are decoys, but there is little chance looking at remains.
It's part of larger problem with much better Russian EW and deep recon drones platforms in recent months. We are way past the times when their kill chain took half of a day to digest info and find solution; at least when comes to these special strategic targets they improved visibly.
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Guys speculating that clip posted by one of Russian channels may show some top Western AA set near Pokrovsk (Sergiivka, 50kms from frontlines) being hit severly something large, probably Iskander.
The affected vehicles do not look eastern at all. It looks as if RUS got a column of some Western OPL set. A huge loss indeed.
And now two issues:
- again something flies with impunity 40-60 km deep into Ukraine and... transmits the image
- what is the legal distance in a column of vehicles?
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Good clip showing how it is to be attacked by these maritime drones, though no sound.
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So, with great regret, we most probably have first (confirmed) destruction of Himars.
Russian troops destroyed the M142 Himars system launcher belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The destruction was the result of counter-battery fire conducted by the Russian 9K515 Tornado-S missile system. Nikanorovka, about 40 kilometers from the contact line at Horlivka.
After all this time and countless media flipflops on their part it frankly looks like proof that Russia Sux rather than Russia Rulez. At least in this narrow field.
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P8A was ding circles over coasts of Romania late in night. Coincidence?
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7 hours ago, JonS said:
If you really wanted Leos why did you not buy some after 2014? I mean - you had EIGHT YEARS! What were you doing, aside from sitting on your thumbs?
Could be a little difficult. "Guys, I am going for shopping to newest Krauss-Maffei Wegmann tank dealer saloon, do you need anything?"
Most countries by that time were discouraged from selling any serious, top-shelf military eqipment to UA. I think we all agreed it was wrong policy, so no point in further beating dead horse.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Unlikely to be any problem on strategic scale, they (i.e. common people, not authorities who don't care unless it's useful) have problems with religiously-inspired musilim terrorism from time to time, but scale is meagre. Usually it is some gangsters from Caucasus, family feud and this kind of stuff. Chechen national terrorism was basically finished 10-15 years ago, then religious one started but on smaller scale and we didn't see larger acts in last years.
So if somebody hope Tartars, Chechens or Ingush suddenly rising up...nope, it won't happen. And Chechens are firmly in Kremlin camp kept by iron-chubby fist of Kadyrov, however I would pay closer attention to Dagestan and Ingushetia- long time ago there were signs there were several schools who could promote this kind of ideology outside of state control. Anyway it is work for police and siloviki, not something deserving to delegate any extra military forces.
Naturally, Russian telegrams are already certain it was in fact CIA work (how would US Embassy know before
?), like supposedly most of islamic terrorism worldwide. But that was to be expected.