cesmonkey

How about defining victory or defeat somewhat narrowly as whether Putin's Russia will be more likely or less likely in the future to move against its neighbors or intervene where it has no right to do so? A second condition might be whether China or other aggressive nations might also behave this way.

Translation of the below:

https://t.me/robert_magyar/573

Big claim: https://twitter.com/Black_Makler/status/1685291881683619840

Has anyone heard much lately about the use of Switchblade drones by Ukraine, probably the larger model 600? Russian telegram channels have mentioned them in the last week. https://t.me/rybar/50204 https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2812

To add to the funk:

I totally hear what you are saying, but I have to believe that not all of the Western officers thought it was a good idea to train newly-formed units in a 5-week course, equip them Western armor, and then task them to lead the counter-offensive against well-prepared Russian positions. (Note: I think that they did get a few extra weeks of training in Germany in how to coordinate in larger formations after the initial training.) I wonder who was making the decisions on which forces to spearhead the counter-offensive and how to employ them.

Probably a very touch subject, but do you think the Western partners should put "more strings" in what manner their supplied weapons should be employed - so that they are used successfully? Would that help? Of course, many of us believe the West isn't providing enough support such that they should deserve "a say" in this matter.

Very depressing. Makes Kofman's analysis from the other day seem "spot-on". Let's hope some lessons get learned from the Ukrainian side and the Western allies that prepared these new brigades for this counter-offensive.

From his twitter post he says this as the source of his maps: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua (Ultimately OpenStreetMaps and OpenTopoMaps) And this is the source of his units: https://twitter.com/projectowlosint

Thanks for those updates. This is the source for those maps, right?

In my reading of the Russian telegram channels, they have no doubt where the real axes of advance are being attempted right now. For example: https://t.me/polk105/9594

With this and the actions in other sectors, it sounds like today is going to be a very bloody day of the war. Hoping for the best!

Russia telegram channels say a particular strong attack by Ukraine near Robotyne in three waves was repulsed. I guess we'll see. War Gonzo reports that they will have video of it soon taken by their own crew.

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, @annamaliar, says: https://t.me/annamaliar/961

Ukrainian naval drone: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/107200

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3470064/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Agreed. But whether or not the West will make the necessary investments to support and sustain Ukraine to not only contribute to a successful counter-offensive but help Ukraine to win back their territory for what still looks to be a very long war seems questionable. Putin may be very correct in thinking that Russia has longer staying power for this war of attrition, even if they do endure a higher causality ratio.

An interesting interview. One of the things mentioned is that Ukraine has a substantial need for non-lethal aid like communication equipment and portable generators but tells the United States that it only wants lethal aid as they believe that there is a limited amount of funding available from the US and its better to devote that entirely to lethal aid. Non-lethal aid can "usually" be bought commercially off the shelf while the options for buying lethal aid commercially are very limited. However, Ukraine still has big needs for non-lethal aid that are unfulfilled.