Grossman

In the relative lull, it's worth considering how the Ukrainian fight is destroying the myth of invincibility of the "Red Army"; the Kremlin has ruled by coercion since 1945 and this is now being broken. It is an epic existential conflict for many countries, for Ukraine, the Baltic States, Slovakia, Georgia and all European states bordering on Russia and even for states within the Russian Federation. A truce or frozen conflict is not possible for many reasons just as it would have been impossible to do deal with Hitler, there are too many atrocities, deaths, crimes against humanity, and Putin is judged by many to be insane. The Ukrainian would never accept the occupation of their lands, as we have see what happens. And if there was a truce and a frozen conflict, it would give Putin and the Russians time to re-arm for the next round of the conflict. No, the Russians have to be defeated, driven back behind their borders, and one would expect an internal reckoning within Russia. But tyranny like hell is not easily conquered as Tom Paine wrote in a drumhead by a camp fire in 1776..

More on the subject https://insightnews.media/russia-collapse-or-coup-against-putin-what-is-more-likely/

CIA director Burns was in Turkey meeting Russian government officials and spymasters to convey messages and have discussions, no doubt making things clear to the governing class. (messages to Putin may not filter down). When military force fails, there are often seismic repercussions. For Russia it was the Civil War 1917-23, and more recently the collapse of the Soviet Union. One can be sure the apparatchiks, who Burns were talking to, are aware of the risks.

Putin had to respect Bejjing and not invade until after the Olympics. One suspects Xi new of his plans and told him to delay. Besides Putin didn't expect he had to fight. The invasion to Kiev was made on the main highway. There are emerging strategic issues arising from the war. The Black Sea has been a neutral sea, with freedom of shipping and trade. We now have a bellicose active Russian navy based in Sevastopol restricting/preventing trade. Principally food shipments to Africa, Ukraine being the breadbasket for Africa. The embargo, or threat of embargo, will last until the Russians are cleared out of the Black Sea. Secondly, Ukraine and the West must avoid another of Putin's festering hostile war zones, a cease fire where Putin would sit on captured territory and re-arm for the next round. The Ukrainians understand, I think. it has to be finished this time around.

Putin's life ambition, and he is prepared to die trying, is to "reunite Mother Russia". Active planning started around 2010 and after the Maiden rebellion of Nov 2013-Feb 2014, it was executed immediately with the invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in Feb and Mar 2014. His "modernisation" of Russian forces was completed by 2020 and the army was in place on the frontier in full complement by Jan 2022. Putin had to wait until after the Beijing Olympics which finished on Feb 20th. Xi probably told him so, (and it is essential for Putin to keep the Chinese onside). It's Putin's life ambition; the only way Ukraine will be able to restore its borders and secure its country is by force. The West has to come to terms with what its up against and send the equipment to allow UKR to repel the Russians from its territory.

One can assume NATO has worked through all scenarios. A likely response to a stray missile scenario might be to speed up the supply of missile defence systems to Ukraine; NATO sees provision essential to the protection of life and property. A 2nd option is the provision of F-15's to the Ukrainians. A third option is a no fly zone 100 km from the battlefield, in essence protecting Ukrainian major cities. It depends on the collective mood of NATO members.

UKR must keep the front dynamic. If the front ever gets into a stalemate, the appeasers and Putin would try to promote "peace talks" to try to keep what the Russians have taken. A very smart move to get over to the east bank immediately, an army in retreat is in disarray ripe for exploitation and UKR can apply the usual formula of exploitation. Zelenskyy made a good speech to the G20. The basis of peace talks is a Russian withdrawal back to Russia out of all Ukraine. There is no way UKR will give up Crimea, so that looks to be the decisive encounter which has to occur. Interestingly Surovikin referred to the damage to the Kerch bridge as a reason the Russians could not supply Kherson. As a posting above states "The Baltics understand that the time and place to beat the Russians for a generation or two is in Ukraine, and right now".

and the deal included not blowing the Nova Kakovka dam, just the bridge. And the deal would have been concluded led by the local military. All speculation of course.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the UKR did a deal. The objective is/was to secure Kherson at minimal cost. After all, the UKR wants the Russians out of all of Ukraine. UKR is running a smart war. The deal could be a foretaste of things to come

The obvious drive is south from Zaporizhzhia to east of Melitopol, cutting the Russian invasion force in 2, with the Kerch bridge out of action, and once secure the coast, moving on to Crimea.. It would need to be a wide operation in breath to deter breakouts. That is the obvious ploy, so may not happen. UKR has the initiative. Without new weapons one can expect more of the same: attrition, opportunity, targeting supply lines, and conservation of manpower.

For the next and final stage of this war UKR needs more and better tanks and F-15's to control air space over the battlefield. Otherwise we may see a costly stalemate.

"Kherson is a gateway to Crimea," says Marina Miron, researcher in defence studies at Kings College London. "Recapturing it would pave the way to reconquering Crimea, which Ukraine aims to do in this war.” "Ukraine's next major target is the town of Beryslav, upstream on the Dnipro river," says Ms Miron. "Once they take that town, then they can mount an attack on Kherson itself. It could be only a matter of weeks away.” However, says Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukrainian forces have been making quite slow progress towards the city of Kherson."They still have to break through the Russian frontlines north of Kherson," he says. "They may be slowed up by muddy terrain. They may not be able to break through to get to the city.” Mackenzie Intelligence estimates that Russia has between 5,000 and 10,000 troops defending the city, including units elite troops. The Institute for the Study of War suggests they are preparing defensive positions within Kherson and to the north west of the city. Source: BBC Nov 8-22

The Ukrainians are fighting of war of (1) attrition (2) preservation of their soldiers lives; do not commit to undue risk, and (3) opportunity. With Kherson, the Russians have long and risky supply lines, have placed themselves in a weak position. All UKR has to do is containment, attrition and wait.

Putting some threads together.....a leaked intelligence report indicates Putin has early stage Alzheimer's, plus his pancreatic cancer. He is loaded with drugs presumably which suppresses his immune system. This could account for his distancing at meetings, and his clutching at structures as his balance is impeded. A source in Russia indicates an order for 800,000 beds, which may mean he is intending to order a complete mobilisation in Russia in 2023. At every turn Putin has escalated. Although he did back down on the grain deal, probably because forces inside Russia advised him to. The UK Express reports there are "power groups"| in Russia challenging Putin. You can imagine there is an immense internal pressure on Putin, his power base has weakened considerably on account of his failures. If he is now planning a complete mobilisation, internal forces may take a hand. This is all speculation of course. But possible.

Putin, China and use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.A joint declaration between Beijing and Kyiv in December 2013 agreed that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, more importantly, will provide security assurances in the event of any such threat by a third party.

The invasion of Ukraine may be the last act of the 30 year drama of Russia struggling with its imperial legacy. Andrey Kortunov https://ip-quarterly.com/en/moscows-painful-adjustment-post-soviet-space It follows that the more military failure in Ukraine the more Russian influence falls away in its Asian Russian sphere, from Moldova to Asia, Kazakstan, Tajikistan etc. A consequence of Russian failure on Ukraine would be an attempted revolution in Belarus, although Putin has Belarus under Russian military control, and its opposition leaders are either in prison or fled abroad.

The Ukrainian people were mobilized to join all four Ukrainian fronts, and this process lasted until the end of 1944. According to Vladislav Hrynevych, Candidate of Historical Sciences, in the summer of 1943 in the Donetsk region 12,860 people were called up and mobilized by advanced units. In Sumy region - 24,031 people were recruited. Military enlistment offices also established their work in the Ukrainian areas liberated from the Germans. Such a system acted like a double razor blade - those who avoided mobilization by the army were mobilized by the military enlistment offices. According to researchers, during 1943-1945 about 4.5 million Ukrainians became Red Army soldiers. After June 1944, the Soviet Red Army consisted of almost 40% of Ukrainians. The losses of the Ukrainian people during World War Two account for 40-44% of the total losses of the USSR.[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Ukrainian_Front

2 stories on London this morning 1 London Guardian Pro-Russian forces claim to have repulsed Ukrainian attempt to retake nuclear plant An attempt to retake control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) by boats loaded with Ukrainian special forces has been repulsed, according to one of the Russian-installed officials in occupied eastern Ukraine. The state-owned RIA Novosti news agency quotes Vladimir Rogov, one of the Russian-installed leaders in Zaporizhzhia, saying: Rogov told the news agency that about 30 boats participated in the landing attempt, but that the situation was under control, and there were no plans to evacuate Enerhodar, the settlement attached to the ZNPP. RIA did not publish any evidence to back up the claims other than Rogov’s words. Russian forces have occupied Europe’s largest nuclear power plant since the earliest days of the war. Both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of firing on the power plant and risking a nuclear accident. Attempts to have the area declared a demilitarised zone for nuclear safety reasons have floundered. The ZNPP is located in Zaporizhzhia, one of the regions that Russia has claimed to “annex”. 2 The Sun reports that Mad Vlad is considering a nuclear demonstration. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20152793/vladimir-putin-nuclear-weapons-black-sea-ben-wallace/

More and more this war becomes a fight for justice and freedom. The Ukrainian are fighting for their country, the right to live in freedom and democracy. All Western Europe including the Germans and the French should be doing all to provide heavy weaponry, incl tanks and aircraft, for the Ukrainians to defend western values and their freedom

Steve. There was no doubt whatsoever her actions were genuine

Steve. Putin thinks he and Russia can survive this. His life's ambition is recreation of Mother Russia. He is thinking long term, (although is not thinking of the long term consequences of his short term actions). There is no off ramp for Putin. Russia has to be pushed back to its old borders, and that means the commitment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine, and the Germans stepping up military assistance considerably, the supply of Leopold 2 tanks for instance. In the end by 2024 it might mean commitment of an EU army in the field. Given the control Putin has in Russia, this is most unlikely to end soon, and can only be "ended" by forceful means.Regretfully.

Steve. Biden speculates on Putin's "off ramp", but Putin doesn't have one, unless it means retreating back into the Russian borders of pr-2014, and trying to remain alive within the turmoil of defeat. He is a war criminal and villein. Biden also speculates that Putin is "sane" but made an insane decision to invade Ukraine. Wrong. Putin's constant life's ambition has been to recreate Mother Russia, and he is insane in this ambition. He is insane enough to die without success, at least he tried. By most western medics, the guy is insane and we should all be cognisant. The West has to cluster Russia back to its pre-2014 borders, and let them stew in their soup, with whatever they devise. The west has to hold the line on the Russian border, giving Ukraine all military and economic help. Such is the price of freedom. As for Belarus, Lukashenko is at the wrong point of history. One can anticipate a revolution from the opposed people there in short shift. In a sense Biden was right, Putin miscalculated on many fronts, none of which was correct.

Given the Russian reaction, attacks on Kiev etc, it only increases western revulsion. It means greater western involvement the deployment of air defences, the Germans sending tanks, the Poles looking at more active participation. Putin is quite mad, and the Russian psychology along with it. Ukrainians are fighting for their right of independence, for western values. The West has to ensure the Ukrainians succeed. Biden talks of an off-ramp. It is Russian forces retreating behind their old borders. Let them sort themselves out. We leave them to it, and sanctions remain

A poster in the London Financial Times makes this assessment of the impact of the strike on the Kerch bridge On whether this bridge was important or not, let's do some maths: A train can easily ship 1000 soldiers across, or, say, 50 tanks (or heavy armour equivalent), and given that Russia can set up these trains from anywhere and need to leave a, say, 10 minute break between trains, the limiting factor is how quickly you can unload this at your point of destination. So shipping 300 000 troops could be done quite quickly (assuming you find these guys drunk enough to step on it, and can equip them (materially and in terms of competence). We know from urban railways that London can ship out 50 000+ football fans using the tube within hours of their favourite club losing. The blow-up has reduced the 4 lanes into one lane in both directions, Russian official announcements are that this has a current capacity of 20 cars in both directions until more of the defunct road lanes can be opened. So one train full of people would need to be replaced by 1000/5= 200/20=10 hours of car trips (with nobody else using the bridge). The remaining road cannot be used for trucks with more than 3.5t weight. So the car bridge cannot replace the volumes transported by rail. This has implications for Crimeans as well - fuel, food, all sorts of stuff needs to be shipped across that bridge. The railtrack has been damaged, and there are varying estimates how much damage the prolonged heat has had on the structural integrity of the railtracks, the steel inside the concrete, the concrete itself etc. The train that carefully rolled across the damaged section was empty and it would be misleading to think that an empty train is the same as a military train. Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btjoMLADLp4showing two tanks sharing 6 axles. At 50t a pop, that's a point load of 16t per axle (plus the weight of the wagon). We know that the bridge was used for heavy armour, the video just shows how quickly lots of tanks can be shipped. So every hour the bridge is limited is good news for Ukraine. Let's not forget that tanks (etc) also use ammo. There are estimates that Russia has used 20-30 000 shells on average every day, in May this went up to 60 000/day. So for every tank in the field, there needs to be a steady supply of ammo that is large enough to cope with these volumes. Maybe that is the reason why Ukraine has blown up more than 5000 trucks etc - 40% of all military trucks russia has? Driving a tank across 100s of miles is very expensive, and it only increases the problem of fuel supply and provide juicy targets for Ukraine hitting refuelling stations. With recent re-gains in the East, Ukraine has cut off the land-based railway supply from Russia into Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and has blown up several military train stations (they are very juicy targets, as not only would this interrupt transport nodes, but they also allow Russia to warehouse stuff that Ukraine then can blow up at their leisure). There is no railway supply chain from Russia into the occupied territories that are not in HIMARS range. There is a ferry service from Russia into Kerch! This is the ferry they are using: https://crimeaports.ru/assets/cache_image/resources/79/maxresdefault-1956x1200-593_1956x1200_593.jpg. This one (https://crimeaports.ru/en/affiliates/kerch-ferry-service) says 60 people max each, carrying capacity is max 37 light-load trucks. There is no way you can transport a 50t tank on a ferry that has a carrying capacity of 37*3.5t= 130t. Not sure the hull would hold, the weight distribution is going to make it impossible to drive it on and off the ferry without sinking the ship at port. The damage to the bridge is going to be a problem for however long repairs will take. The attack does make the bridge militarily unsafe for the future even if repaired as whoever did this can come back. The implications for the military situation in the occupied territories are not good at all. And just in case this makes no sense, spare a thought for the 20-30 000 Russian troops stuck on the West of the Dniepr who have been cut off from supplies because Ukraine has blown up all the bridges and now patiently waits until Russia made a provisional bridge to then blow up that one too. Would have been nice to see the whole thing fall apart, but it still is a serious problem for the Russian army (and the about 50 000 Crimean tourists from Russia staying there).

Mainstream media. BBC reports https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63160354