Grossman

Its abundantly clear Biden needs to provide longer range Himars and F15's. The Russians are showing no restraint whatsoever. And now targeting politicians, journalists going about their business in their own country. It has to stop.

Yes. There is a public debate in Russia on the use of nuclear weapons, which is surprising. It means in my mind that forces not in agreement with Putin have insisted it be public. Those same forces may attempt "Valkyrie" in the coming months when things deteriorate at the front, and particularly if Putin is intent on the use of nuclear weapons. That would be a decisive moment for the Russians opposed to Putin. The new "government" may try to sue for peace. However as we have learnt a WW2 solution worked, when a WW1 solution didn't.

The ISW analysis adds that “the observation that current Ukrainian operations may have objectives that are not simply territorial is an important one”.

The Ukrainian's say the explosion happen in the power station, and presumably under the dam. So must have been packed with explosives

We hoped the election would be free. But for someone been in power for 20 years, and rewrote the constitution in his favour, some hope. What will follow? Not good.

UK Ministry of Defence. Since last summer Russia has built “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades” in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict. Imagery shows that Russia has made a particular effort to fortify the northern border of occupied Crimea, it said, adding that Russia had also dug “hundreds of miles of trenches well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions”. The defences “highlight Russian leaders’ deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a major breakthrough,” the MoD said, although it added that “some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO”.

There is no future for Putin if he ends the war. His life is dependant on continuing hostilities. It's up to the hierarchy in Moscow to judge outcomes, and it's up to the people to influence the hierarchy. At what point do they say enough.?

And finally, Bakhmut may go down in history as Ukraine's Verdun, the Soviet Stalingrad. History may show how important it was for UKR to hold their positions ( mainly) while degrading the Russians at a very favourable loss ratio. It's curious how obscure locations evolve to be critical in the waging of warfare. Gettysburg, up in Pennsylvania, or who would have though in 1934 that 10 years later, obscure villages in Normandy would be the location of the most intense battles of WW2. ? Just musing. Ukraine is making a hell of a fight, all power to them.

There are so many mind games going on. The US probably organised the leak as a reminder to the Russians " you don't have one iota of a chance". And to the Chinese to say, "get involved, it will be a disaster, this is what the Russians are up against". No UKR plans were leaked. To the Russian mothers, "this is about to happen, why am I sacrificing my son for Putin". I'd be very surprised if this leak, given the security, was accidental.

Steve....I can see your point. Much more do-able and less risk. Of course UKR might try to do both, phased of course. Depending.

Best to go as far to the east in UKR territory as possible, ie due south of Donetsk. Shorten the lines. Split the Russian army, have the western parts with their backs to the sea. If UKR go west of Mariupol the Russians would use that city as a defensive base. Best to isolate Mariupol behind UKR lines. Note the Russian troop concentrations are highest in Svatove area, so the Russians would be expected to make a counter move towards Izium to isolate Sloviansk and Bakhmut

My bet, and its only a bet, is for the UKR to punch south east of Mariupol to the Sea of Azov. That is why UKR devoted resources to the Bakhmut defence, as that flank must hold. Then it would be (1) holding the eastern flank (2) taking out the Kerch Bridge, (3) rolling up the Russian on UKR territory to the west. The whole of the Russian position would be perilous. UKR would command any negotiations. If the Russian fought on its army to the west would be annihilated . That has to be the UKR goal.

Swedes say a state actor is the central scenario in the Nord Stream sabotage. It took 500Kg of TNT. They have identified the explosive, but won't say what it was, whose signature is on the pipe. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/06/nord-stream-sabotage-pipeline-blasts

The BBC have been tracking Russian fatalities in the 331st Guards Parachute Regiment, often called the Kostroma Airborne Regiment. Apologies if already posted https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65179074

should be "attrition of Russian forces to the west"

In my mind UKR will want to punch down to the Sea of Azov, take out the Kerch Bridge, and isolate Russian forces to the west, including Crimea.. Then hold that line, and start the attrition of the Russian forces to the east. The Russians would be caught in a massive envelopment, disastrously so to cause political repercussions in Russia.

The goal is to push the Russians back beyond their frontier and for them to sort out how they want their country to be. Ukraine, Georgia and the west want nothing more to do with the Russians.

"The blogger, who frequently travelled with Russian troops on the frontlines, emerged as one of the loudest critics of Russia’s defence ministry over the last year for its inability to achieve military gains in Ukraine. In one instance he called for a tribunal for the Russian military leadership, describing Moscow’s top officers as “untrained idiots”. ( UK Guardian) The dwarf Putin has to be the prime suspect.

re the Russian position, They are massively exposed. It's 90km or so to Mariupol and the Azov. Blow the Kerch Bridge and bingo. The key will be the depth of the penetration to withstand a Russian counter attack. Zhukov understood that at Stalingrad. It will be ugly but the the Russian army to the west will have to capitulate in time. I suspect there would be turmoill in Russia first

Steve. No 1 is unlikely. China would be siding with Russia against both the EU and US, against its national interest. Besides it would feed weapons into Russia surreptitiously and not be brazen about it. The most likely is no 2, read Putin the riot act, give him some carrots to end it. One thing is certain, it is no longer a Russia/China partnership if it ever was one. Russia is wholly dependant on China. Xi calls the shots. The White House has been strangely silent on the visit. It probably is well aware of the agenda. Putin will reject all, and keep going. It's his life's ambition, he's a war criminal, he is prepared to die in his quest, unrepentant.

Xi in Moscow. Xi's visit next week...... Behind closed doors, and on a one-to-one, where interpreters can fall from the 5th floor, Xi will be giving Putin his marching orders. The Chinese will have evaluated the weakness of Putin's position, personally, nationally, economically and militarily. Xi has come to Moscow to give the message personally. In fact this is one of the most crucial conversations Xi will ever have. He will be telling Putin the game is up, try to sue for a peace settlement, a cease -fire. Forget your defiant posturing, get out with as much as you can. The other message to Putin will be that China will do all it can to provide a united front, but it the end its national interests will override. China cannot afford to be seen to align with Russia against both the EU and the US. In many ways the arrest warrant was a master stroke. Putin's personal days in power are numbered. He is disposable.

We've had virtual silence from the UKR side since Kherson with holding attritional actions in Bakhmut and Avdiivka through the winter. Zelenskyy promises an offensive, so clearly not likely to happen. Perhaps infiltration, probing, getting to the Sea of Azov, cutting supply and the Kerch Bridge. Cutting all supply to the Russian forces to the west. .

BBC is reporting UKR has ordered some residents out of Kupiansk. Probably to militarise the town. If UKR try an offensive in the south it would be essential for the eastern front to hold, including Vuledar https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64833750

Ha Ha. There are some more "achievements" Woke Germany up to the geopolitical realities of 2022. Recalibrated German Ostpolitik towards Russia "change through trade" towards the EU and NATO with a large increase in an underfunded Bundeswehr . Caused economic, political, and social barriers around Russia so living standards there will fall indefinitely. At last count about 200,000 Russian soldiers are dead, missing or wounded and about 40% of the army's equipment has been lost to date Succeeded in creating a firm alliance of the G7 countries in support of the Ukrainian armed forces. In Russia to massively increase the repressive nature of the state. This is Work in Progress. There is a strong likelihood all will be aggravated over time.

The Ukrainians have been "containing" this winter. Feeding men and resources to contain the Donbas front. One suspects they are allowing the Russians to expend, while they marshal resources for a push to the sea when the weather dries up in the early summer, when the campaigning season commences. It's just a question of the axis of the attack. The goal this year is to liberate Crimea. imo.