Suleyman

Lysychansk looks to be a harder city to assault. If it gets to that point, the Russians will most likely go for the higher grounds first, maybe cross from the points that directly lead to the bottom of hills to avoid being picked out by long range. At least if I was them that's what I would do, high ground first for fire control, and ease of crossing. They still got some stiff resistance in Severodonetsk they have to get through first though.

The Russian Donbas offensive isn't over, even if they fully secure Severodonetsk they still want to push forward to Slavyansk. Whether the Ukrainians are able to destroy the next upcoming attacks is on them. The Russians have to go slow or the Ukrainians find weak points and do serious damage. I'm still surprised they don't turn every urban engagement into Grozny, where they had no remorse for any people just complete bombardment. In saying that though, it does seem they are being slowed down, I wonder if the Russians plan on holding ground for very long periods until they can get together more soldiers. Those guys are recruiting harder than the JROTC recruiters in my old high school. I can see a scenario where Ukrainians just do an unbearable amount of hard resistance to the point the Russians decide to just hold ground and call it a day.

Artillery is definitely king of war, although when it comes to US forces when we get air superiority I’m sure that’s just as nasty since we rely on aviation more. Although we got pretty decent artillery

Impressive that the Ukrainians have anti ship units putting in work. Couple more ships even if tugboats and the black sea fleet might have to fall back. You can’t lose that much ships and the rival doesn’t even have a navy operating. The Kherson offensive is slow but it seems to be a decent push, it will grab the attention of Russian forces. I wonder if they will be able to drive deep, or are the Russians going to counter it. Tbh, what I think is that region for now will be a push pull battle.

That's some good combat footage, I got surprised when one of the guys turned out to be American. That combat looks rough, if they make it nasty enough the Russians might bring in the TOS-1s though, Ukrainian counter-battery needs to be on point.

I think that's very disrespectful to the many beautiful cultures and nations across the world. What makes us more civilized?

My view on this war is different, I definitely believe the Ukrainians should be able to choose what they want and Russia shouldn’t invade a country over something majority of them wanting. However our foreign policy (US) is funny to me. There’s other nations in the world right now that are under severe oppression and occupation (arguably more than Ukraine) yet we don’t really do nothing for them. I’m fine with us helping Ukraine with military gear but spinning up this thing that we are righteous is hilarious to me. To me it seems our government just wants to wreak havoc on the Russian military and government since they are our historical rival in certain regions of the world(which is fine I guess they’d do the same to us). I earn decent pay however a lot of Americans don’t, and a lot of them suffer from the increases in gas prices and other inflation caused by this war. If we as a people are so willing to suffer to help people in need we should also help other peoples in need too not just the ones that our foreign policy decides is absolutely important.

Ukrainians did very well for a while, but from what was said about the 200-1000 casualties a day depending on intensity, there is a momentum in favor of Russia right now, in the Donbas. UKR will always have the defender advantage but those casualties are terrible, I truly feel bad for those soldiers who get injured or lose their life. They’re purposefully not advancing in the Azot to avoid heavy casualties, they want to get the civvies out and then bombard it or encircle it. If they decided to assault Azot directly the Ukrainians would inflict some heavy casualties. The Russians as I said previously when they took Popasnaya, they have no choice but to slow grind. This war might be longer than we thought. Russia lost in Kiev but they could win in Donbas, and I say this with no bias I obviously don’t support Russia in this war. Then there is the battle around Kherson and Kharkov which would be major too. My prediction is that the Russians will try to secure Donbas, try to stabilize Kherson region and push a little towards Kharkov. After that they’ll either hold ground for a while or call an end to the operation. The sad part about it is, it seems their main goal is to inflict as much as damage as possible to the UKR military.

Smart move if the goal is to inflict damage.

220 MM penetration? Ouch those small drones can actually do a lot of damage, if I was the UKR forces I would definitely do daily raids with those it could make a big difference tactically. The Russians might start catching on doing the same too. The push for Kherson sounds a little risky for me from UKR, I saw the terrain and if I'm not mistaken isn't the terrain open and kind of flat? That will leave them open to aviation and artillery strikes, no?

Those are gonna be more of a pain than TB-2s because of the small size, it would make it very hard to detect. How much armor does the bomb they drop penetrate? I'd assume at worse it would hurt the sensors and optics on AFVs, and take out the engine if it hits it.

That heli got hit hard, the other one seemed to be a more skilled pilot avoiding the launch. In a war like this you're gonna lose CAS craft for sure, good notes to take. I just don't understand why send those choppers there if they know there's a heavy manpad presence. Helis in this type of conflict need to be in and out, engage a point and dip out. Ukrainians with few helicopters left do tactics like that. I've seen a video where a UKR MI-24 pulls up over a tree line engages his target and falls back. It seems those helis were just free roaming (hunting) without worrying too much.

The forest terrain should make it easier for Ukrainian offense in the push towards Izium but I don’t have high hopes, if it works they will 100% halt the push for Slavyansk

1000 casualties a day is bad if true

Forget 90-100K casualties if Russia lost 40-50K that would be enough to completely stop them forming any meaningful offensive. It’s true they don’t have a lot of manpower in the war imagine what 100K losses would do to them. It would be a Ukrainian total victory one sided. Both sides most definitely over state the casualties they inflict, but it’s done in every war so not something new

Am I the only one who thinks things aren't looking good for UAF in Donbas? I've been keeping up with both sources and it shows that the RU forces are going to be victorious in the region. Mykhailo Podolyak an adviser to Zelensky, said they are taking 200 KIAs a day, artillery and airstrikes are a great advantage on the RU side so it makes sense. If Ukraine and allies wants to beat the Russians in Donbas in a decisive way, they must be supplied with large amounts of heavy equipment to cancel out the firepower advantage the Russians possess. Do I think the Russians can go much further than Donbas if they are to be victorious? No. It's too much land to cover, and the Ukraine has the manpower advantage in the region. Since the Russians don't have a lot of manpower to play with, and they do have a rotation going on it's gonna be slow advances on their side, we can't expect them to advance in rapid breakthroughs they're committing to the slow and grinding out methods because they face the threat of heavy attrition if they try those type of tactics. Both sides have battle hardened soldiers by now, so infantry on infantry is a bad idea for RU forces, they don't want to fight on an equal footing and risk losing valuable infantry that they do not possess much of.

CAS is playing a big role in their advances, artillery doing the heavy work. Plus after those heavy losses the left over RU forces are becoming battle hardened. Kind of like when you go to a boxing gym, you can train all you want but nothing gets you ready or teaches you how to fight better than fighting/hard sparring (although you gotta learn the basics obviously and get conditioned) anyways.. I would assume if Ukraine wins here the Russians are done but if the Russians keep pushing they might win in the Donbas and be able to threat/bluff other options.

I don't know if Ukraine would do good attacking Kherson. The Russian regular units stationed there may be tough to take out, only because of the defender's advantage including the air support they would have. If Ukraine pulls it off though, definitely a wow. That Ukrainian company holding off in Oskil, is doing great I mean at the end of the day these soldiers are defending their country they will put up tough resistance. I think they're in big danger though, CAS and artillery will be directed at them no? I hope they don't suffer heavy casualties.

Indeed. The tanks are the biggest threat, the infantry is probably gonna be playing defense.

I just seen a video of a tank heavy large convoy heading to the Donbas front, company of T-80BVs (12) plus a couple BMP-2 platoons and a lot of infantry with their truck carriers and MTLBs.

Rather than the fast advance around Popasnaya and Severodonetsk, I’m paying attention to the small RU counter offense in the Kharkiv region. They “recaptured” two towns/villages quick as well. Interesting game plan they have, I wonder what their end plan is? UA defending around Popasnaya and Severo need to give them a run for their money and inflict damage to insure they cant go much further. I think they can but we’ll see what happens

Isn’t a RU mechanized company like 81 infantry together with the crew + 9 IFVs? If true that’s just sad

lol!!!! at Steve losing his mind. If they even lose 1 more vehicle like that he just might.

Thanks for the info, I actually looked into it too after that. Old equipment

BMP-1s are usually used by DPR/LPR. The Russians been using an upgraded BMP-1 with a new turret and 30mm autocannon on it. It doesn't have any thermals though, so not much of a big upgrade, the armor is still not that good. Any truth to the Russians claims of stopping Ukrainian push from Ternova and Rubizhne and capturing the towns? I don't feel comfortable going off anybody's claims until I hear both sides and see some pictures or evidence.