Suleyman
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Posts posted by Suleyman
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That’s got to be a typo unless their propaganda is worse than the USSR’s
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I think they do hit more than 1, I seen footage of them taking out 3-4 M777 a couple days ago on a twitter source. It’s normal to lose artillery in such an artillery heavy environment. The Russians lose artillery in the dumbest ways possible sometimes too. The Ukrainians seem to be better at shoot and scoot
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I think the goal is to completely surround Lysychansk. If they are successful in this operation it seems they will make small rapid gains and they can have better chances towards Slavyansk.
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Tochkas can do some massive damage if used right
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I got a toyota too can the UKR help me install those self defense features too?
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Good to hear that they retreated but i don’t know if they didn’t take casualties doing so. The Russians had direct fire control. I hope they didn’t. Those soldiers that withdrew are gonna bolster the defense and give Russians more problems
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I think the Russians will have more success as time goes on but only in Donbas (maybe Kherson region?), Ukraine has the manpower advantage and if Russia decides something crazy they would suffer terribly. Ukrainians put up very strong resistance.
As far as the LDNR troops standing close to their MLRS, that’s just stupid. I’ve been saying a while back the Russians need to learn what dispersion means. You cannot put troops and equipment so close to each other especially when UKR love opportunities like that
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Lysychansk is still a very hard place to assault, unless the Russians completely surround it, it would take long to take it if they can.
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I believe the Russians said there is 2000 soldiers in that Zolote Hiirskye cauldron(is that true? I dont know), 2-4km corridor is very dangerous to retreat from only because they will face artillery fire, and attack helicopters might be ordered to the area for exactly that reason. The Ukrainians may have to send some reinforcements to ease the retreat.
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A positive mindset is key, even if Russia wins in Donbas they're not gonna go much further. They would have to raise a way larger army to do that. Only thing that's sad is that Ukrainian soldiers are dying, and civilians are suffering.
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Good information, I did take into account the combat experience of LDNR but I assumed that since the regular Russian units are seeing heavy combat and being rotated the experience should be catching up, and the fact that they are better equipped they would be more formidable.
As for Ukrainians, what is considered their top tier? I know kraken, azov, aidar has some elite & extremely tough soldiers.
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I’d say the top tier Russian infantry is probably contract regulars since they pull up in BTGs and various supports. Spetsnaz, VDV, and Wagner seem to be more capable when it comes to infantry on infantry. LDNR guys seem to be used to hold territory more.
I don’t think the winter will be good for any side, as you guys said logistics is a problem. It’s gonna be a lot of artillery duels going on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either side launches a winter offensive
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Will the winter favor the Russians?
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This conflict gives me a huge headache. Both sides claim the complete opposite and they’re not wrong even if it’s a lie because it’s a valid war tactic. Then they provide evidence and then the other does what’s the real situation lol.. still tho I’m sure Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance
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10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
They havn't enough troops for mass attack Lysychansk from the south. Russians stalled in their attempts to advance along (or across) the road Bakhmut - Lysychansk and LPR forces (4th motor-rifle brigade with some Russian support) bogged in assaults of Zolote - Toshkivka - Ustynivka
Interesting I'm not one to buy into claims without evidence, just stating what they said. Maybe they just want to threat Lysychansk instead of actually take it from the south to make it easier to attack from Severodonetsk.
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Russian sources say they launched a general offensive in Lugansk, also they seem to want to attack Lyschansk from the south, which is obviously a better option than crossing through Severodonetsk.
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That would be detected fast, especially since that is a major focus of the Russian military right now.
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25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
2 very interesting videos of Toshkivka, a town S of Lysychansk, something could turn into CM scenario. I wondered why they did not put more pressure along this axis before, instead of hitting repeatedly at the wall with their heads in Severdonetsk.
Russians are coming by a road (of course) trying to probe the defenders. There are a destroyed machines from attacks before; town is heavily destroyed too. The satellite photo Def Mon also show interesting set of trenches inside a city. It seems even in this example Ukrainians retort to artillery rather than using their ATGM and grenade launchers (at least that's what in video).
I would much more rather my unit go through the fields in line formation instead of columns on a road but it looks like they shelled the buildings to the point where there would be no threat on them approaching like that. still what if there is an angry Ukrainian squad with a RPG waiting for them to drive by.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Because the plan was proven inherently flawed by Day 2 (I'd argue Day 1) the Russians should have reevaluated their operations, in particular anything that was deemed "risky" even according to the original plan. Sending in OMAN units into Kyiv on a moronic "Thunder Run" type activity was just as idiotic as trying to do a helicopter assault way ahead of stalled ground forces. Running logistics through areas that had not been properly secured was suicidal. The fact that ANY of this was allowed to happen is an indictment of the entire Russian leadership from top to bottom, but the fact that it continued to happen for WEEKS can be said to be "insane". Not just incompetent, I really do mean "insane". Check out any definition of the word you like and you'll see what I mean
Steve
I agree with you, I think in a twisted way the Russians needed this in order to learn lessons (not that I care or support them) they never learned from the 5 day war in Georgia, nor even from the issues LPR/DPR faced.
1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:TOS thermobaric attacking soldiers in houses. What chances of survival you think they had if sitting in the cellar??
Practically none, the shockwave would end up killing them unfortunately... not to talk about the insane thermobaric heat and explosion. The Russians use TOS to devastating effects, and I'm surprised they don't use them in Severodonetsk.
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32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
It was worse than just Hostomel. I don't think anybody has an accurate count for how many helicopter assaults were made in the first few days, none of which survived for more than a few hours. The most significant ones I can think of were around Mykolaiv. There was supposedly one as far away as Odessa.
Steve
Hostomel assault you can kind of make sense, they assumed it would be empty or almost no resistance and that the ground forces would link up quickly. But Mykolaiv and Odessa? What were they smoking (or drinking?)
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:
Hostomel was guarded with small number of personnel of 4th National Guard rapid reaction brigade. Russians seized airfield after almost all day clashes (but lost two helicopters over it and at least two more on approach). Because of mech. units were involved in fights northern, UKR forces had time to gather reinforcements and artillery and pushed off VDV (45th VDV spetsnaz brigade and 31st air-assault brigade - total 300 men in first wave) from airfield. But on next day first Russian mech.units arrived as well as new wave of VDV, which came from Belarus on BMDs and other part probbaly again on helicopters, so after heavy fighting Russians took airfield again and seized it up to the April.
I appreciate the info crazy assault honestly but they wasted their surprise potential with that, Ukraine responded fast.
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52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel
Question, what happened there? The Russians (VDV) took the airport then got surrounded before their ground forces came is what I heard. But I don't know the truth
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Just now, dan/california said:
I would disagree rather strongly that the Ukrainians don't have an integrated air defense. That is WHY the VKS just cant fly over Ukr territory at all. I have a lot of question about how it works, but they are not going to answer those until the war is over, and they have a new one built with NATO tech.
Better that I say like active installations, for example a S-300 site where the Russians could detect it and engage it with stand off range SEAD, and cruise missiles. I'd like to think closer to the front it's way more passive, hiding and waiting for the opportunity which in my opinion is more dangerous.
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
The analysis of this war is greatly complicated by the fact that neither side has been able to assemble what NATO considers a full spectrum of capabilities. In the Donbas this has resulted in a weird asymmetric near stalemate with massive attrition on both sides.
1. If the initial Russian failure proved anything it is that modern tech/missiles have increased the cost of protecting supply lines by an order of magnitude, maybe more than one. This factor by itself may make an offensive war like the U.S. conducted in Iraq impossible. This is a LARGE strategic shift.
3. The Israelis have been acutely aware of this lack of strategic depth for forever. They have a stated policy that if an army from outside Syria crossed into Syria with even possible intentions of attacking Israel, that the Israeli air force would commence attacks the minute it crossed the Syrian/IRAQI border. I am quite sure they would feel even more strongly about it if the tanks were Iranian.
4. A lot of the early Russian success on the Southern front was due to the FSBs coop/subversion planning working there. There were SEVERAL key betrayals in and around Kherson in particular. I expect the Ukrainians to hunt those people for FOREVER.
5. Ukr still has not solved for Russian air attack when they attempt large scale offensive operations. Whatever exact combination of S300s, manpads, and ? that is keeping Russian aircraft from overflying Ukr. territory just doesn't seem to work when the Ukrainians try a mechanized advance. So most of their offensive operations have to move at the tempo of marching light infantry.
I'm sure our forces would be taking heavy (for our standards) losses too just minus the incompetent losses that the Russians took, which makes up a big portion of losses. The Ukrainian meme where the guy says "we are so lucky they are stupid" comes to my mind. lol.. but I think that had to due with inexperience more so than stupidity actually maybe a little bit of both. The Ukrainians have smart leadership all across the board, where as the Russians have to learn on the job.
As for the Israelis, what they say on theory sounds good, considering as of lately they just occupy people that don't even have an active insurgency going around, or the occasional bombing of the Syrian government forces. It's desert and open terrain for the most part in Syria and Iraq it's way easier to detect and engage forces with artillery and aviation there. I also don't believe the Iranians have the ability to invade Israel. I get the idea though, engage them before they can be a threat. Not really applicable to the style of fighting the Russians and Ukrainians got going on. The Russians just blitzed through Northern Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but didn't really prepare for heavy attrition.
The Ukrainians deny Russians air superiority not because of an integral air defense but because they use passive style, a BUK or S-300V system hiding and waiting can do some major damage to Russian aircraft who is unsuspecting. The Russians cannot afford to lose their top tier aircraft let alone CAS to the defenses of the Ukrainians. I agree that this is a major success on the Ukrainian side, if it wasn't like this it would be hell for Ukrainian defenders, the Russians got a lot of dumb bombs. If they could have SU-25s and SU-24s just using their CCIP to drop bombs from mid range I'd have to assume they would be having way more success in advancing.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I’m going to go on record and say this war is gonna end as a stalemate. Wish it would be over already, a few HIMARs is not going to finish this war. Either go all in with the support or don’t, we’re already indirectly at war with Russia if our weapons have killed them.
If there is a diplomatic way to end this war I think now would be the time, no more people have to die. If it continues going like this it’s just gonna be minor Russian gains in Donbas, heavy attrition and more civvies dead. Just some thoughts