billbindc

I don't think we are that far along yet if only for the fact that the leadership of the Russian military/Wagner seem to be in no rush themselves to grab up the katana and charge the lines in Bakhmut. But what *is* happening looks like each sector of the military is being asked "What have you done to show your loyalty to the Russkiy Mir?" and off they send the boys to oblivion. There simply isn't the pre-existing cult of faux bushido that the Japanese military had ingested for 20 years before WWII. But they are working towards something similar, surely.

I was *just* describing the way the Japanese air forces were used starting in '44 to a friend in reference to this. In both cases, the apocalyptic language and the completely internal logic of national honor dominates.

"they will be shot down en masse: What historical precedent is there for this? The Bulge?

Would 100 aircraft be remotely enough to materially change anything on the ground? Their PGMS that are left aren't particularly P or G and their pilots are going to be flying for their lives given Ukraine's air defenses.

If you thought I was going to make a joke about how we need some overweening American with a lot of juice around here to come in and keep these Euros from fighting with each other you would be wrong. I would never do that.

So the cost benefit will be similar to other aspects of the Russia military's experience. The destruction of irreplaceable assets for a near term domestic political reason. I used to say that Putin was all tactics and no strategy but at this point that tendency has become suicidal.

If this is as hard as you gents make out...which I believe...then what exactly is the Russian air campaign that's being telegraphed supposed to accomplish? Tactical bombing to spring the mobiks? A banzai attack to show the boss that the air force is just as all in as the army?

I found the quote "a pre-1918 army" quite striking.

Between the idea And the reality Between the motion And the act Falls the Shadow Old T.S. knew a thing or two.

I've always thought that the worst thing that colonial empires do is to impose their own cultural malignancies on those they oppress. Something you may wish to consider.

Not remotely a Communist myself but in influence, it's hard to understate Marx's impact both good and bad. Some suggested reading for folks who wonder why: https://www.amazon.com/Eighteenth-Brumaire-Louis-Bonaparte/dp/0717800563

Speaking of paranoia, I'm pretty curious as to why we are all being completely accepting of the idea that the US is pushing Ukraine hard to pull out of Bakhmut but Ukraine is refusing because reasons. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely that simple? No. And could it be a piece of a fairly sophisticated information strategy aimed at Russian observers? I'd say almost certainly.

The essential problem with American support is that inevitably everything gets jammed into a partisan frame. What American interests were clear to average Republicans a year ago start to get muddied as the RW media machine starts to work on the issue...not because there is any real dispute but because dispute is where they make their money. Meanwhile elite Republicans (said without any snark) generally do understand the stakes and support the effort. Mitch McConnell's tie at the SOTU wasn't an accidental choice. We will be good to go until the 2024 election and the war will be done if either a Democrat or a Republican committed to American national security wins. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/31/as-russian-invasion-nears-one-year-mark-partisans-grow-further-apart-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

Well, there goes pretty much every book in 18th and 19th century literature in every tradition folks...

Well put.

I think what happened is that a lot of people...often in the US too...talked themselves into overestimating US decline and the Trump administration really set the hook on that idea. The Afghan withdrawal also with its chaotic endgame taught exactly the opposite lesson that it should have. Meanwhile, the fundaments of US power remained quite resilient and perhaps most pertinently, there's no remotely as attractive hegemon anywhere on the horizon. Sometimes just being preferable is powerful.

Iran.

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

My model of the current state of play is that we are in an abortive WWI space. Multi-ethnic, archaic imperial state Russia (think Austria Hungary) thought its "unlimited" alliance with China (Kaiser-ine Germany) would allow it to settle scores with Ukraine (Serbia) in a world where a long war/big war hadn't happened in decades and was so unthinkable and ill thought. But this time, the Kaiser balked and the Third Balkan war became a dragged out proxy conflict as everyone else tooled up for something bigger. That's where we are now. Waiting to see which way the balance tips.

The interesting thing so far is that the ideological battles so far are really rehashes of similar reactionary vs liberal fights of the last century and a half. Fukuyama's (often misunderstood) main point still holds. I think what's going to change is that technology is revolutionizing the transmission of ideas/fads/movements while at the same time governments are also gaining better and better ways to surveil and control citizenry. Add on climate change and the rather profound effects it will bring and we can begin to grope towards an idea of what future ideological fights will be. Growth vs the environment. Necessary economic immigration vs xenophobia. Government panopticon vs personal and political privacy. Completely free speech vs 'responsible' speech. Coastal investment vs abandonment. And quite likely nationalism versus internationalism still.

Very interesting and I generally agree. What will make it different is that the resources that matter the most to the coming Luke Warm War are going to be distributed differently than the last one. It won't be coal or oil...it will be lithium, chip factories and innovation industries. And it will be happening while populations are declining, the planet is getting hotter and the resulting refugee flows will be both incomprehensible to us but also potentially highly valuable to competitors then. The soft power to attract people will be on a seesaw with the difficulties of assimilating or adjusting to the human flow. Really an old human story but with facets we haven't seen in our historical record.

I pinkie promise not to savage any potential Petraeus delurking on the subject of COIN. I'll really want to, to be clear but I'll resist the urge.

Thanks for this. It's always interesting to hear how other parts of the anti-Putinist coalition see the fight and this was informative. You might have heard of Terrell Starr who has a lot of experience in Ukraine and really lays into folks on the left from the left who don't understand why it's necessary to fight Russia. Not my politics but his experience and analysis is quite thorough.

And the Russian arms industry spirals down the drain: https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/02/13/rossiya-teryaet-krupneishego-pokupatelya-oruzhiya-indiya-zamorozila-peregovori-po-vertoletam-i-samoletam-a33902