billbindc

It helps to read to the end. "for so little benefit" does a lot of work there.

Do not underestimate how badly this will be taken in New Delhi and Beijing…not to mention the rest of the world that depends on cheap wheat. They are going to be about as unhappy about this as they would about anything short of a reactor accident or a tactical nuke. Governments fall from high food prices. Dependable price trends get a shock…again. It seems clear to me that the Russians are panicking, that the regime is in disarray and that an air of desperation has set in…which is why they did this…but there’s no way they would not try to pass the buck.

The procedural measures the United States would have used and did to shut down Nordstream2 were reversable by design in order to create leverage with a Russia that it was presumed would need the money it could get by selling it's petroleum products. That was the 'steady drumbeat' from US politicians, it was successfully carried out and some of us think the explosion was a direct result of it working as intended on some level. Blowing it up destroyed that leverage and was a lawless act at complete loggerheads with the US and EU role of supporting the international order from which they both benefit. If there's a fantasy, it's imagining that either would so egregiously violate the rules of a game they created for themselves for so little benefit.

Russia lacks men to defend the full front. The Kherson front is closest to Perekop. Keeping strong raiding parties from crossing the Dnieper saves Russian manpower and provides defenses in terms of flooded land that are better than anything the RuAF can do themselves. The reservoir will be harder to cross at a lower level (no established landings, muddy banks for 100s of yards, etc).

Looks like mines being pulled into the flume.

Note that the story here is that one service heard a story from one source that they couldn't corroborate about a plan but not an actual operation. Going to make a bet that the European service involved was either Germany or Austria and value the intelligence accordingly.

The timing and the cui bono are so strongly in one direction it's going to take quite a bit for me to believe it wasn't an intentional act by Russia. Benefit of the doubt simply doesn't apply here.

Hearing already that the Crimea canal has already reversed course. Russia absolutely needed it to get enough water to Crimea. An extremely desperate measure.

Well...maybe it really happened. If so, I'm having a hard time believing the Russian claim that Ukraine did it to wash away Russian positions for an amphibious assault. Inter alia, the last the UAF would probably want is an uncertain landing on the other side.

Rumors that the Nova Kakhovka dam got blown tonight. Not confirmed but an interesting and hugely consequential move if true. It would mean at a minimum that Russia was expecting an attack of some force over the Dnieper. Important caveat: it is coming from Russian Telegram channels.

It's a full court press at the moment.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-is-smuggling-drones-to-secret-agents-inside-russia-report?utm_campaign=owned_social&via=twitter_page&utm_source=twitter_owned_tdb&utm_medium=socialflow

https://read.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-field-fortifications-in-ukraine

While Putin can't love it, it's not something most Russians will hear and if they do it's not something that will surprise them. The mythologizing about VVP has been obvious and well known for a long time. In fact, one of the big takes on him when he ascended from Saint Petersburg to Moscow under Yeltsin's wing was that everyone was surprised such a plodder somehow landed the gig.

And it now clearly goes way past propaganda and media. Russia is being humiliated in a direct challenge to the logic of Putin's hold on power around Belgogrod and the reaction by Russia has been sclerotic. Why? Because instead of an empowered regional governor or military district head being able to grapple with the raids, they instead must wait for action and directives from Moscow.

The eternal truth of a mafia state from Miller's Crossing: "You run it because people think you do. They stop thinking it you stop running it." There's also a basic issue of bandwidth. Putin has centralized the entire war to a narrow circle around him. They simply don't have the time or the skill set to get a handle on new developments as they are struggling already to manage old developments. Their ooda loop just can't keep up any more and control is slipping in broadening waves.

I have warm and fuzzy memories of being considered a Cold War relict because I was profoundly suspicious of anyone working for RT.

It's a Swedish AT-4. Very old news.

The FSB does in normal times. After the beating it took for its failure to predict things accurately in Ukraine it was in a weakened position. As the primary institution to carry on the war, the MoD was strengthened. Wagner's enhanced status was Putin's response. https://cepa.org/article/vicious-blame-game-erupts-among-putins-security-forces/

Sure, Trump's completely irrelevant to the conversation. Nothing to see there. Move along. https://publicintegrity.org/national-security/timeline-how-trump-withheld-ukraine-aid/

The budget is created by a mix of Congressional priorities and Executive priorities that are negotiated over intensely before a final budget is arrive at. The bill is then approved by Congress and also signed by the President or it doesn’t come into force. He doesn’t “sign some papers” after Congress hands him a note. I’ll leave the rest because it is pretty clear where you are coming from and I doubt I’ll convince you of the reality of how things work.

I would submit that Wagner has been an active political tool of the Kremlin since the beginning. Utkin was involved with Slavonic Corps which the Kremlin squashed bc it didn’t control it. When Utkin returned to Saint Petersburg, he was charged with setting it up by Putin and within a year or so Wagner was fighting in the Donbas. Prigozhin is the factotum Putin put in who is now trying to leverage it both to carry out his master’s need to balance out the MoD and secure his own position. Hence, of course, Bakhmut.

The thing you won’t hear much in the analysis of the Biden administration is how unlike previous administrations this one is on Russia. For starters, they figured out that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, decided that the US was going to support Kyiv and began relentlessly pushing European allies *in April* of 2021. Why different? It’s not just the level of pre-planning, it’s also that Biden uniquely among recent American presidents had absolutely zero misconceptions about VVP, the strategic understanding of what a fallen Ukraine would mean and what a policy guy I know calls “**** it” old man energy. He’s a 78 year old guy who isn’t trying to set up some post Presidential foundation or get rich or whatever. He is just doing Ukraine right with all the tools at his disposal. He’s certainly an older guy but if this is what old guys who trip on sandbags are like, I’ll take it.

Perhaps reread my previous post and also consider how much of the aid Congress would have approve without assiduous staff work, politicking and planning by 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. You can like or not like Biden but to pretend he or his administration isn’t responsible for our so far quite successful Ukraine policy and aid is absurd. “The Emperor has no clothes and it really sucks that he’s kicking our ***” is what the Russians are saying. I don’t know about you, but I generally go in the opposite direction of whatever copium there are snorting.

Actually, the President can do quite a bit without immediate and express Congressional approval if the authorities already exist. You know, like all that aid to Ukraine. So no, you are not a political student and you are very wrong.