Maquisard manqué
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Posts posted by Maquisard manqué
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3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Rohan only sending horses and swords.
+ the fellowship of the ring/volunteers?
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1 minute ago, danfrodo said:
oh great, now we have one of those 'round earth' people on the forum. It's obviously flat and the sun goes around. I know this because it was clearly demonstrated by a cartoon video on youtube, so it must be true.
But seriously, I do wonder if the level of deliveries to UKR has stepped up recently. Those reservists being trained probably need just about everything to come in from the outside world.
Wot? Obvs it’s round! It’s a disc - with greenwich in the centre. You didn’t think it was a square did you? Numpty.
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6 minutes ago, Desertor said:
Today is clear in southwest France and the sky is full of airplanes from east westbound, that is a most unusual path for the commercial airlines here, and the flight radar apps doesn’t show them, I think they are military jets coming from Poland returning to USA after emptying their cargo there.
Seems a bit of a stretch tbh. Don’t think that’s the right flight path for anything US bound. They normally head NW on the shortest path over the globe. I think SW France, or anywhere in France, is too far south to be anywhere near a flight path from Poland to US.
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6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:
This is an argument I keep having with friends and acquaintances in the UK - it probably applies in much of the west to be honest. People keep talking about 'international law' and the legality or illegality of various things. This has been used a lot as justification for various stuff in the last 40+ years, but it seems like the majority of people seem to actually believe that international law means something. That the decisions of the UN security council are in some way binding. That international relations are governed by some rules-based authority.
I keep trying to point out that the only way to force a country to comply with 'international law' is military or economic pressure. The 'law' is nothing more than a voluntary code of conduct of countries agreeing to abide by some rules in exchange for other countries agreeing the same, on the basis that we all benefit in the end by resolving differences by non-military means - even if it may work against one countries interests in individual cases.
But it is purely voluntary. If a country like Russia decides it is willing to live with the consequences, it can ignore whatever 'rules' are imagined by international law. Which has worked pretty well for it up until 2022, as the west seemed to think that Russia was willing to be part of the rules based international order. It isn't. It's just willing to make enough of a pretense at it (whilst doing what it wants) to paralyze the political actions who of countries who do believe that stuff.
So yeah, I think there is going to be a rapid shift to people understanding that this rules based system is unenforceable on countries that don't want to play that game, and that a power based reality is going to become more prevalent.
I don’t really think the UN’s issues are anything new. Surely any steps backs can’t go further than things were in the Cold War?
The SC is indeed paralysed by the tensions between camps. All rules, laws etc are actually enforced by consent. You cite two versions of coercion that can force consent. which is why the general assembly or even g20 and g70 are fora that are more telling of the global temperature.
My card may already marked among some of you men of action as a moralising something or other. But the global consensus required to boot Russia out of the human rights council is indicative of what most countries think of them: that the country is run by vicious, lying murderers who can’t be trusted further than they’re thrown.
I’m not sure what kind of global system you want. America does essentially rule the current one and designed it from the ground up. I hear echoes of recent US global retreat when you deride your own system.
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9 minutes ago, sross112 said:
The other addition would be radically tightened control on the movement of people in and out, like back to the iron curtain days. Which with the brain drain that has been spoken of it might very well come to that shortly. Tight. Like not even letting Russians into Belarus as they might jump the border to Poland tight.
Was the rumour of martial law being imposed only that in the end? It was weeks ago…
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Oh and I forgot the rampant kleptocracy presided over by spooks turned oligarchs.
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24 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
I predict Russia will basically turn into North Korea by the end of this. Belligerent, paranoid, insular, and brutal to its own citizens out of fear of what would happen if it loosens the screws.
I liked but It’s basically already there isn’t it? Anyone protesting gets beaten or bullied out of a job. Any opposition is incarcerated or assassinated. The democratic system is as perverted as possible, with no barrier to indefinite rule by Putin/his heir (tbc). The media are gagged and any dissent is literally illegal.
Maybe you mean more that the current and growing isolation will endure & harden? I’m not being snarky. What else could there be though?
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Just now, kraze said:
Remember how everybody thought that Brexit was a terrible thing that was helped in no small part by russians?
Wonder how many russian FSB guys went to jail when putin realized UK can do whatever it wants with its NLAWs and sanctions without asking another 20 countries if it can.
Don’t think Brexit has any influence on that. The Uk hasn’t felt the need to consult the Eu on most adventures.
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5 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:
Not sure this was posted yet:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61038811
Based on reputable, serious news outlets, it feels like every area, village, town of occupation has seen the Russian army live up to pretty much the worst that’s been said about it. Obvs the quoted link isn’t from such a source but it’s shocking (so yes until validated it could be propaganda- but the fact I now doubt it, why shouldn’t I given What else they’ve done, is most important - well to me anyway!).
At the risk of re-raising the bigger racist debate, but really to say I regret giving the benefit of the doubt, I can only see a small difference between this institutionalised violence, thuggery and carelessness for human life and what the Nazis did. Frankly I fear it might only take competence for the Russian army/state to replicate such systematisation.
@kraze, sorry. Pretty sure you’ve said as much.
I’m still (always) for a Marshall plan option but only for the sake of the future generations of Russians. This current lot appear largely poisoned, despite the protest attempts by some. This is helping me understand the frustration and bewilderment western soldiers & journalists (I.e. Gelhorn) felt when faced with the cynicism and denial of many Germans post 1944.
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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
As for the whole Holocaust labeling issue... I'm someone who believes that words lose their meaning when used improperly. Calling what Russia is doing in Ukraine "genocide" is over the top. Large scale warcrimes? Yes. Crimes against Humanity? Yes. I'd even endorse Ethnic Cleansing, especially regarding the forced deportations (though that could turn out to be massive hostage taking) and crazy Russian talk of "Lebensraum" for its people. All of those terms fit what Russia is doing and all of them justify marshaling the powers of the world to destroy Russia's ability to function as a nation state until it addresses its criminal behavior.
However, Russia is not trying to systematically wipe out all Ukrainians. That is what Genocide is. Not murdering for a thrill, not murdering for revenge, not even murdering out of hate. Targeting a specific group isn't even, on its own, Genocide. It has to be systematic, not random or selective. Russia's Mass Murdering (another term that applies) does not meet this standard.
Ask yourself... if the Ukrainian Army dissolved in 3 days as Russia had hoped, would Russia attempt to literally empty out all of eastern Ukraine of every single Ukrainian? I very much doubt it. Murder anybody that raises an objection? Yes. Rape women and steal anything nailed down? Yes. However, Russia is more interested in enslavement, therefore annihilation runs contrary to its goals.
Check Russia's history. All of their mass murder events, including against ethnic Russians, was intended to kill enough people in a particular area so the rest would be compliant. This is why we still have Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians for example. Mass murder, ethnic cleansing, terrorizing, and all of that are simply a means to an end... enslavement. That is not Genocide.
Steve
Don’t want to give the teacher an apple but well said Steve. And it’s not to detract from the evils that Russia is doing in/to Ukraine.
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11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.
tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs.
Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.
There’s likely more off camera, unless the BTR really is spraying & praying.
The arty at the end of the clip suggests it wasn’t a lone tank too. Although it doesn’t look as surgical as some things have - so could be less directed?
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5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Is Europe or the US in better shape, I wonder? With regard to population, I mean.
Yes. Bolstered by immigration.
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Interesting insight for a civvy (like me) of what it’s like for your world to flip. A lot of nuance and humanity in this piece.
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5 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Well Clausewitz kinda left these parts out. War is personal and worse it strips off all the veneer of civilization pretty quickly. Military discipline is not just about keeping people from running away, it is just as much about ensuring they can still see which way is up.
Why did they do it? Because they can. And in the end we are all scared monkeys that are equal parts kind as we are cruel. You de-humanize your adversary hard enough and it is a slippery slope right to this sort of stuff.Is the lack of proper NCOs a likely factor in this too? (As well as other evidence of poor discipline - littering, bunched up vehicles etc)
Obvs the world doesn’t need my opinion on this but this looks a lot like reprisals. When there’s near total mobilisation and they are terrified of what lies behind every bush (partisan warfare), soldiers have often taken their fear and frustration out on any nearby civilians they can get their hands on. These crimes will be remembered, even if The Hague doesn’t catch up with the perpetrators.
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7 minutes ago, Splinty said:
What racism? Both sides are white Slavic. Racism plays no real role in this. Hating invaders who come to subjugate, rape, kill, and destroy is completely understandable.
Er, thanks, this could constitute something I can agree on with Kraze.
I know that’s how this looks in the west but you must be missing a) the complex history and demographics that make up ethnicity b) the posts here about x people are all y.
Calling all Eastern Europeans Slavs is not accurate.
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4 minutes ago, keas66 said:
I'd down vote you if I could . I think you are living very comfortably in a far away country passing judgement on those who are dealing with death and destruction on a scale we can barely comprehend - and you are trying to come across as some holier than thou arbiter of what is or isn't allowed ? Laughable .
Fair enough. That’s certainly what’s weird about this social media war stream.
But tell me, when the dust settles, is the racism either way going to be right or ok?
No.
So why is it ok now?
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51 minutes ago, kraze said:
Ok last "racist" reply for you and I'm done.
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Denazification wasn't about "opening eyes". Germans knew full well what their army was doing. They knew it all. Denazification was about punishing those that didn't want to change. Germany has punishment for even drawing swastika to this very day.
So why won't you try to explain that "fundamental humanity" thing to russians, because they clearly have no such concept?
Because telling me about it when I see streets filled with dead bodies of human beings tortured, raped and killed by "humane" russians - is a waste of your time, honestly.
That's about it.
Seeing what you’re seeing it’s understandable you’d question the basic humanity of the perpetrators. Every rational observer does but for you it’s even more. I get that.
I’ve also given thought to the comments here to let it go given what you’re country is going through. I disagree. What’s the point of claiming democratic values of respect for humanity and the rule of law if you don’t try to respect them?
But frankly, I’m pretty sceptical about the merit of denying the basic humanity of people. If you don’t do that, it’s got to be pretty hard to get a democracy to work as anything other than a tyrannical majority.
Zelensky is popular because he keeps aloof of Putins’ quagmire of racist crap and promises the rule of law. I’d encourage you to heed his example. It’ll go further with the democratic centre of the EU and US.
You’re wrong about denazification. People don’t want to know things that are hard to accept. Thats whole “big lie” thing. Ask a German, but the majority of Germans in ww2 ignored or allowed things to happen because the price to them personally was too high to question it. Denazification was about showing to ordinary Germans what was done in their name. Showing them the basic humanity of their victims.
I’m now done.
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37 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Your western hypertrophied tolerance, false humanism and "real politic" led to Russian attrocities in Georgia, Syria and Ukraine. Western world - the stronghold and the stream of civilization turned out to the bunch of frightened wimps which deadly scared of this "superstate", made from "s**t and sticks" and gave us "48 hours to new political reality". So, this is our right how to relate to Russians. Here, in ruined Mariupol and Izium, in looted, raped, murdered Kyiv outskirt cities and villages, here completely other reality, where all liberal or leftist ideology voices must shut up and keep silence until last Russian scum find own death here.
Yes, even among SS troopers not all were murderers. But whole SS was criminal organization and the spot of blood fell to all. So this is no matter either private Vania looted or murdered or not. The spot of dirt on them all.
This is not Putin loots and murders. This is Russian soldiers. This is not "SOME". This is "USUAL". The army is a cross section of society. So it reflects Russian society. So if I hear "common Russians shouldn't bear the brunt of sanctions", "stop bulling and cancelling of Russian" etc., I say "Too few sanctions. Too few cancelling. Too few rusophobia". Russia must be destroyed, derashizied and de-nuclearezied.
My hate speech is finished.
Sanctions, cancelling, political ostracism: all and more - yes. Agree to the end game too.
As to Lilly livered democracy, yes - they should be standing closer. But they aren’t because they did too much of that 20years ago, with less justification, and haven’t recovered from it.
now to save Aragorn regurgitating on his armchair uniform, I’ll leave you to it.
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11 minutes ago, Ultradave said:
Exactly my point, which you seem to have missed completely.
Sorry, missed your plea. I agree - nationality is a construct, shouldn’t mean much.
I similarly object to reading bile throughout the thread. I mostly lurk for the actual news but sometimes the non military commentary just gets too much.
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36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Sorry all for this pictures, but after this no one dares to accuse us in "racism", "bulling of Russians", "violation their rights" and other bull****. There many killed civilians were found in Irpin', but now our troops came to Bucha and have seen THIS. The nation, which let all of this must be punished. ALL, maybe except those, who actively represented own anti-rashism position before this nightmare.
GRAPHIC IMAGES!
Just tortured and executed civilans: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FPSd5RMXsAoLdXy?format=jpg&name=900x900
The street of Bucha, littered with dead bodies of civilians: https://twitter.com/i/status/1509985789404459011
I’m not calling any one a racist for anything more than what they type about other people. I want to see all involved in those murders brought to some sort of justice. It is not racist of Ukraine to defend itself and kill its invaders.
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47 minutes ago, kraze said:
No, what I'm saying is that all russians have to be held collectively responsible for actions of army they themselves feed.
Holding russians collectively responsible is just as "racist" as denazifying Germany in 1945.
I can guarantee you there were absolutely anti-nazi germans who were forced to bury the victims of their army even if they disliked Hitler and his supporters.
So were american soldiers forcing them to do it - racist?
Why "it's all Hitler's fault" didn't fly?
But that’s not what you keep typing. You just keep referring to Russians as an entire group. I can only take what you write at face value.
The whole point of denazification is that it opens peoples eyes, because you accept that people are capable of much better than they’ve shown. Shame on them. A million times over. Because they should know better.
But don’t degrade yourself by not respecting their fundamental humanity. Otherwise you don’t look much better than them.
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17 minutes ago, kraze said:
So again I'm racist because I don't like seeing my friends getting killed by russians? I'm racist because I don't feel like russians raping underage girls in my country is OK? I'm racist because I'm shocked they are robbing my people of what those people worked so hard for years?
What does race have to do with any of it?
Maybe I just don't find a fluffy position of "it's only Putin who's at fault" (that, granted, has changed into "it's only Putin and his army who is at fault" from "those innocent 18 y o kids who were sent here by the evil putin") good enough?
That army of rapists, robbers and murderers is armed by someone, is catered to by someone, dressed up by someone, fed by someone. And that someone is dozens of millions of russians.
Who all keep feeding that army, keep catering to that army, keep dressing up that army. And keep supporting the war machine. While nobody there is trying to stop it.
So if me not being amused by some civilian Ivan somewhere cooking food for sergeant Vova who just finished raping another 14 y o girl in Mariupol makes me a nazi, who mistreats poor russians - I have no more arguments.
No, you are a racist because you say all Russians are the same, that they are somehow intrinsically less than Ukrainians or others you deem “ok” in some way.
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1 hour ago, kraze said:
We are not an exception. Whole EU got to where it is through very bloody tyrant dethroning revolutions. They weren't successful by luck, they succeeded by people fighting and sacrificing a lot.
Bloody revolutions are what made EU democratic and not them somehow lucking into benevolent politicians.
USA too, being a prime example, of a mere colony sticking it up to a huge empire that controlled 25% of planetary landmass at one point - and becoming what it is today by people never being afraid to voice their concerns.
A revolution, like that in Syria or Kazakhstan, may fail, however, due to way more powerful outside force (or to be precisely - russian invasion in this case) - but it didn't fail because people didn't do well enough. Both aforementioned cases would've been a sure win if not for russians.
But when you are just walking around for months and literally applaud your murderers, while claiming you don't want to end up being like Ukraine - that's not doing it well enough.
Kraze. I know it doesn’t suit your own apparently racist credo but read a bit more history please. Or stop posting your racist crap about all Russians being evil. I am not sure why it’s getting a free pass here.
War criminals are war criminals and the Russian army and govt is clearly barbaric. It’s treatment of Ukrainian civilians is inhuman, unlawful and evil. It’s assault on Ukraine is equally illegal and morally wrong. The Russian public, like the post ww2 Germans, will have to face a reckoning with what they knew or didn’t want to. But if you think of them all as fundamentally evil, you’re just playing to Putin’s fascist crap about races and civilisational conflict. You start to sound like your own little putin. You prevent the redemption by Russians of their own country and make a repeat of this even more likely. You make Russian claims about Ukrainian nazis seem that little bit closer to the truth.
Revolutions are not easy. They are usually not a single event and last a long period, with all sorts of interference from outside forces. They also continue being contested long after and between the actual fighting. History looks a lot simpler from far away. The EU’s revolutions that you suggest were done rather simply took hundreds of years. The US didn’t do it by itself either! France bankrupted itself supporting the US revolution.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
I think it will go further than that. In this case I'm not predicting the "demise" of MBTs because of their vulnerability, but also because of their production and lifetime costs, deployment limitations, manpower requirements (logistics in particular), fuel usage, and a bunch of other things combined with vulnerability.
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It goes on and on from here, but I think you get my point. As the purchase and support price tags continue to increase in order to combat the lethality of less expensive systems, at some point people are going to wonder if it's all worth it. The big nations will probably slowly transition, the smaller nations will embrace it faster. It's inevitable for economic reasons alone.
Steve
And that is very similar to why things like metal armour were phased out. It started not offering enough protection for the cost required. Any weapon system is (I'm just guessing here - not an academic) subject to the cost/benefit ratio of several things, e.g.:
a) performance in weapon/armour competition (is it lethal or protective enough),
b) can it be used/trained easily (or does it need life-long training & conditioning, e.g. longbows),
c) how much does it cost (can every soldier have it or only elites?).
I guess you'd also add maintenance and logistics for anything since 1850, and even more for the high tech stuff in use now.
It seems we were already in an age of armour transition/re-evaluation due to cost and vulnerabilities (even a few years ago where the Saudis lost some M1s to Houthi drones/ATMs in Yemen), but that's accelerating.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by Maquisard manqué
Added second link - analysis of what it means for Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/alexander-dvornikov-russian-general-who-helped-turn-tide-of-syrian-war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/10/new-russian-war-chief-will-bring-more-brutality-in-ukraine-us-warns
Lovely sounding guy.