Machor

Russia on brink of default as debt deadline looms https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926 "Russia is on the brink of its first debt default since 1998 as the Sunday deadline to make a $100m interest payment seems certain to be missed. Russia has the money and is willing to pay, but sanctions make it impossible to get the payments to international creditors. The Kremlin has been determined to avoid a first default since 1998, and a major blow to the nation's prestige. The Russian finance minister branded the situation "a farce". Russia has seemed on an inevitable path to default since sanctions were first imposed by the US and EU following the invasion of Ukraine. These restricted the country's access to the international banking networks which would process payments from Russia to investors around the world." "Though default would be a symbolic blow, it would have few immediate practical consequences for Russia. Defaulting nations usually find it impossible to borrow any more money, but Russia is already effectively barred from borrowing in Western markets by sanctions. In any case, it is reportedly earning around a billion dollars a day from fossil fuel exports, and Siluanov said in April the country has no plans to borrow more."

BBC coverage of the International Legion - don't miss the Taiwanese soldier, and the dissatisfied Canuck with Beretta MG 42/59:

Following up on the WaPo article I posted from, a valuable interview with Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence - his words suggest the Ukrainian military is preparing for a 'great' counteroffensive: Russia is conducting covert mobilisation campaign, Ukraine spy chief says https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-is-conducting-covert-mobilisation-campaign-ukraine-spy-chief-2022-06-25/ "KYIV, June 25 (Reuters) - Russia is using its reserve forces in a covert mobilisation to replenish its ranks in eastern Ukraine and there is no point in simply waiting for its offensive potential to fizzle out, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Saturday. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv that he believed Ukraine could only achieve a victory against Russia through military force. "The strategy is very simple. Stabilise the situation. Receive the required amount of equipment and prepare the required amount of forces and means to start the counteroffensive to return all our territory," he said. "We shouldn't wait for a miracle that they will tire and stop wanting to fight and so on. We will win back our territory as a result of our counteroffensive," he said. He said that 330,000 personnel were involved in Russia's operations in Ukraine, a third of its entire armed forces, a figure he added also included non-combat personnel such as logistics staff. "The main part of this number is the combat element and that is more than 50% of what Russia has at the moment," he said. He said was calm about the possibility of Russia eventually openly announcing a mobilisation as it would mean President Vladimir Putin having to face awkward questions at home. "They really fear this - this is the main reason why the mobilisation is happening in a hidden way, particular by using (reservists)," he said. "The military units that took part on Feb. 24 and those same military units now are in most cases on their second and in some cases even their third group of personnel," he said. "These are not the well-trained people who were prepared for many years.""

Longer quotation from the WaPo article that JonS linked to, since there are some interesting tidbits: Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/ "Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months" "The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts. “There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue." "According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week." [my emphasis] "But the “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official. Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said." "Russian commentators are also noting the challenges, emphasizing a chronic shortage of manpower. “Russia does not have enough physical strength in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine … taking into account the almost one thousand kilometer (or more) line of confrontation,” wrote Russian military blogger Yuri Kotyenok on his Telegram account. He estimated that Russia would need 500,000 troops to attain its goals, which would only be possible with a large-scale mobilization, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from undertaking." "The Russian onslaught has already outlasted forecasts that Russia’s offensive capabilities would peak by the summer. Aggressive recruitment of contract soldiers and reservists has helped generate as many as 40,000 to 50,000 troops to replenish those lost or incapacitated in the first weeks of the fighting, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia has been hauling ancient tanks out of storage and away from bases across the vast country to throw onto the front lines in Ukraine." "“The most significant part of the war isn’t these geographic points, because now it’s a contest of will but also a material contest, of who is going to run out of equipment and ammunition and their best units first,” he said. “Both of these forces are likely to get exhausted over the summer, and then there will be an operational pause.” At that point, assuming sufficient quantities of weaponry and ammunition have arrived, the hope is that Ukraine will be able to go on the counteroffensive and start rolling Russian troops back, Ukrainian officials have said. If not, both sides will dig in to defend their positions, and a stalemate will ensue, barring the unlikely prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough, the Western official said. “You’ll have two sides not seeking territorial advantage but on operational pause, focused on resupplying and relieving the front line, at which point you are into a protracted conflict,” he said." [my emphasis]

New NYT piece on covert ops in Ukraine - the importance of medical training was something I didn't expect: Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/us/politics/commandos-russia-ukraine.html "A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military." "WASHINGTON — As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials. Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials. At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. The United States withdrew its own 150 military instructors before the war began in February, but commandos from these allies either remained or have gone in and out of the country since then, training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid, three U.S. officials said." "Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, which before the war had been training Ukrainian commandos at a base in the country’s west, quietly established a coalition planning cell in Germany to coordinate military assistance to Ukrainian commandos and other Ukrainian troops. The cell has now grown to 20 nations." "The commandos are not on the front lines with Ukrainian troops and instead advise from headquarters in other parts of the country or remotely by encrypted communications, according to American and other Western officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the signs of their stealthy logistics, training and intelligence support are tangible on the battlefield. Several lower-level Ukrainian commanders recently expressed appreciation to the United States for intelligence gleaned from satellite imagery, which they can call up on tablet computers provided by the allies. The tablets run a battlefield mapping app that the Ukrainians use to target and attack Russian troops." "Still, former military officials who have been working with the Ukrainian military have expressed frustration with some of the training efforts. For instance, Ukrainians have struggled to evacuate soldiers wounded at the front lines. The United States could step up front-line first-aid training and advise the Ukrainians on how to set up a network of intermediate mobile hospitals to stabilize the wounded and transport them, former officials said. “They are losing 100 soldiers a day. That is almost like the height of the Vietnam War for us; it is terrible,” a former Trump administration official said. “And they are losing a lot of experienced people.” Army Green Berets in Germany recently started medical training for Ukrainian troops, who were brought out of the country for the instruction, a U.S. military official said." "The Ukrainian military’s most acute training problem right now is that it is losing its most battle-hardened and well-trained forces, according to former American officials who have worked with the Ukrainians." [my emphasis]

I should have made myself clearer: I was wondering about transfer of experience from Syria regarding mine and IED warfare, which look like becoming prominent in this war at this stage. I was frankly thinking about this much earlier when the mini-drone attacks started, and now it has become real. Next war, grunts will have to wear adult diapers like fighter pilots.

Ukrainian Mi-8s doing flying MLRS with a ridiculously high angle - a unique advantage of this tactic. I guess one isn't safe from such a volley even in the 'grave' depth foxholes described by Haiduk above: Reverse cockpit-view of Ukrainian Su-25 executing low altitude combat maneuvers, giving a sense of the g-forces involved. Note the new hi-vis livery against friendly fire:

Ukraine's 2S7 are still rocking - note the gun operating alone, as per Haiduk's previous reporting on maximum dispersion [The tweet was later corrected - it is being operated by a regular artillery unit, not TD]: Retreating Ukrainians got @LongLeftFlank's memo and left Shanghai Donbas surprises for the Russians: I wonder if Russians are able to transfer their experience from Syria, considering the Wagner presence?

@Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!":

Russia claims first operational use of Su-57 in Ukraine [Russian site!]: The fifth element: Su-57 fighters have started operating in Ukraine https://vpk.name/en/610546_the-fifth-element-su-57-fighters-have-started-operating-in-ukraine.html "The fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft are involved in a special military operation. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov announced the use of the latest fighter jet on June 18. The new planes made not only single, but also group sorties. On the same day, the armed formations of Ukraine continued intensive shelling of the DPR and LPR. Donetsk was hit by MLRS and heavy artillery for several hours." "Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov said on June 18 that Russian troops used fifth-generation Su-57 fighters during a special military operation in Ukraine. According to him, these planes have been used repeatedly. — Both single sorties and several aircraft in coordination, in information interaction, used aviation weapons of destruction, very effectively, — said Yuri Borisov." "The Su-57 is a fifth—generation multifunctional vehicle. First of all, it is a fighter, said military expert Vladislav Shurygin. — Based on the results of these sorties, conclusions will be drawn, it is possible that a decision will be made to improve certain parameters of the machines, documents on its use will be finalized, the expert added." The rest of the article is a propaganda blurb; here's a tasting: "In Mykolaiv, Ukrainian special services are filming stories about private houses allegedly destroyed by the Russian army and civilians left homeless. More than 40 actors are involved in the staged video filming, all participants were paid a monetary reward of $ 25, Mikhail Mizintsev noted."

FWIW from a guy in Canada with contacts in Turkey: Grocery stores there are changing prices every day (for higher, obviously), and even within the workday for crisis moments, like when sunflower oil was rocketing early in the war.

A Midnight Express in the making, except the train doesn't come this time: [As I served in the Turkish Gendarmerie, I can tell that NCOs turned a blind eye on foreigners caught with pot back during my service - Not business advice!] Russia sentences US teacher to 14 years for cannabis smuggling https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61849579 "A Russian court has sentenced a former US diplomat to 14 years in prison for "large-scale" cannabis smuggling. Marc Fogel had previously worked at the US embassy in Moscow, but was employed as an English teacher in the city at the time of his arrest. Fogel was sentenced in the same jurisdiction that is hearing a marijuana-related case against US basketball star Brittney Griner. Cannabis is legal in many parts of the US, but remains illegal in Russia. "The American citizen Fogel has been found guilty," a court in the Moscow suburb of Khimki said in a statement. The news release said that the English teacher had committed "large-scale drugs smuggling" in addition to "large-scale illegal storage of drugs without a commercial purpose". Fogel, who is in his 60s, had around 17g (0.6oz) of cannabis in his luggage when he was caught on 15 August 2021 at Sheremetyevo airport, he told lawyers. Local authorities have not commented on the amount of drugs Fogel was carrying, but Russian law defines a "large amount" of marijuana to be at least 100g. Fogel said a doctor had prescribed the drug for medical reasons after he had spinal surgery, and that he was not aware medical marijuana was illegal in Russia. He pleaded guilty to smuggling, storing, transporting, manufacturing and processing narcotic drugs, according to Russia's Interfax news agency, and was sentenced to serve his prison term at a maximum security penal colony."

This. When you look at all variables, there are two that scream out: Covid, and full Russian control over Belarus. I do suspect Covid and isolation played a role in terminally messing up Putin's already troubled psychology - just recall his 'Ukraine doesn't exist' speech right before the war. But it was Belarus that was the most significant geopolitical change since the annexation of Crimea. However, I will make a correction. It's even more recent than that - Putin took control only after the 2020-21 protests against Lukashenko were effectively suppressed. Here's Lukashenko 'blasting' Putin in January 2020: Belarus' leader blasts Russia for pushing merger of 2 states https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/belarus-leader-blasts-russia-for-pushing-merger-of-2-states-1.4782437?cache=mgxrihoykb%3FclipId%3D89925 "The president of Belarus on Friday accused Moscow of pressuring his country to merge with Russia, and vowed not to let it happen. Talking to workers of a paper plant in eastern Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko lambasted Russia, the country's main provider of cheap oil and gas, for halting oil supplies in order "to dissolve Belarus ... in the brotherly Russia." The statement comes amid stalled talks on further strengthening economic ties between two countries, seen in Belarus as Moscow's plot to swallow its post-Soviet neighbour. "We have our own country, we're sovereign and independent. With our brains and hands, we earn what we can, we're building our own country. And we can't be a part of some other country," Lukashenko said. "I can't betray you and dissolve Belarus, even in the brotherly Russia." Russia stopped supplying oil to its post-Soviet neighbour after Dec. 31. The two nations had failed to renegotiate an agreed oil price for this year during drawn-out negotiations on deepening the integration of their economies. The Russian suspension did not affect oil crossing Belarus to Europe or the supply of natural gas, but had consequences for Belarus, which relies on Russia for more than 80% of its energy needs. Lukashenko has since vowed to find alternative oil suppliers and said Friday that Belarus is currently negotiating additional supplies with the United States, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. Earlier this week, Minsk announced the import of oil shipments from Norway. "Americans, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates... I have a brilliant relationship with them, they say they will supply as much oil as needed," Lukashenko said, insisting that his intention not to concede to Russia's demands is "not a bluff."" And more 'blasting' from August 2020, when Belarus caught Wagner operatives on the eve of the elections: Belarus ruler Lukashenko says Russia lying over 'mercenaries' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53648640 "Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has accused Russia of lying about a "mercenary" group arrested in Belarus last week and says another such group has infiltrated his country. "Today we heard of another unit sent into the south," he said in an address to the nation. "We'll catch them all." Russia has denied that the 33 Russians held were plotting terrorism and were linked to anti-Lukashenko activists. Anti-Lukashenko protests have grown, as he seeks re-election on 9 August. Russia has said the 33 - claimed to be members of the shadowy Wagner mercenary group - were only transiting via Belarus en route to Istanbul. And Russia insists they had no mission to interfere in the Belarus presidential election. "All this about Istanbul, Venezuela, Africa and Libya - it's a lie. These people - they have already given testimony - were sent into Belarus on purpose. The order was to wait," Mr Lukashenko said, in his televised annual address. He said the Russians could have flown directly to an overseas destination - there was no need for them to enter Belarus to do so. "So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious," he alleged." Thus, taking 25 March 2021 as the 'official' end of the protests as per Wikipedia, the invasion of Ukraine began one month short of one year after that date.

Cockpit view of Ukrainian Mi-8MSB doing the flying MLRS thing with 122mm S-13 rockets - note the US helo helmet of the co-pilot:

And the logical follow-up - how Russia is trying to replace its manpower losses: Russian army ramps up recruitment as steep casualties thin the ranks https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/16/russia-military-army-soldiers-recruitment/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_source=twitter "In a recruiting ad posted in Rostov-on-Don, just a few hundred miles away from Ukraine, a deep voice narrates: “Test the limits of your abilities! No, screw the limits, are you ready to break yourself every day?” The action-packed ad continues: “You’ve decided to prove something to yourself. You are trying to detect an enemy in every shadow because if there is no enemy, there is no fight, and if there is no fight, there is no victory.” Recruitment efforts have been particularly obvious in St. Petersburg, where an inflated figure of a smiling, uniformed officer waved at passersby earlier this month, beckoning them into an enlistment office to learn more about the perks of serving in a professional army. Job listings and recruitment fliers offer a modest base pay that can go up to $3,500 to 4,000 a month with bonuses. Each day of combat, for instance, yields extra pay of about $55. These sums eclipse the Russian median salary of about $600 a month and, together with low-interest mortgages and various other subsidies, can be appealing, especially in a shrinking economy."

Since we've had a lot of discussion about Russia's ability to replace its materiel losses and in particular its dependence on foreign microchips, here's a relevant WaPo article from yesterday: U.S. probing how American electronics wound up in Russian military gear https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/15/us-computer-chips-russian-military/ "FBI and Commerce Department agents are visiting tech companies to ask about computer chips found in drones, other weaponry" "Russia manufactures few computer chips or electronics of its own, forcing it to rely on imports. The United States for decades has tightly controlled sales to Russia of the highest-tech chips and those designed for military use, requiring exporters to obtain a government license. But sales of electronics below that threshold — including the kind commonly found in commercial products — were not widely restricted until 2014, when the United States began requiring exporters to obtain licenses before selling a broader range of chips to the Russian military. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the U.S. and many allies have prohibited all chip sales to Russian military buyers, and placed restriction on chip sales to other Russian buyers in an effort to prevent the country’s armed forces from accessing western high-tech." "A single piece of radio-jamming equipment revealed computer chips from a dozen U.S. companies, including Intel, Analog Devices, Texas Instruments and Onsemi, according to a report RUSI published in April. The gear also contained components from half a dozen chipmakers in Europe, Japan and Taiwan. The report published the part numbers for the components, which The Washington Post used to identify the chip companies. The radio-interference equipment, named Borisoglebsk-2, was designed to interrupt the enemy’s communications and was probably manufactured around 2015 or later, Nick Reynolds, one of the report’s authors, said in an interview. None of the Western chips was specifically designed for use in military equipment, according to two electrical engineers who reviewed the component list. The parts were developed for general commercial use, and many were relatively outdated, manufactured between 2000 and 2010, the engineers said. “A lot of these components are very general purpose and could be used in wide range of devices,” said Peter Bermel, an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at Purdue University. “Most of the items they are listing are available through any commercial computer parts supplier or digital parts supplier.” “A non-trivial fraction of these parts are now considered obsolete by the manufacturers,” Bermel added. Reynolds, a research analyst for land warfare at RUSI, said Russia’s technical demise in recent decades, partly sparked by a large post-Soviet brain drain, has forced it to use Western chips. “Its defense industry has struggled to attract and retain talented young engineers, who have often chosen to move abroad instead,” Reynolds said by email." "The RUSI researchers also reported inspecting a U.S.-manufactured component that the Ukrainian military found inside a Russian 9M949 guided rocket. The rocket uses the component — a type of electronic device called a fiber-optic gyroscope — for navigation, RUSI said. The British researchers declined to name the U.S. company that made that component, saying RUSI was continuing to research that and other parts."

Thank you for the great post - out of likes. I was reminded of how 'miraculous' Navalny's survival seemed after his poisoning with Novichok - as if he had a guardian angel looking after him - and pulled up a BBC timeline that I'll quote with my emphases showing Navalny's 'protection': Alexei Navalny: Two hours that saved Russian opposition leader's life https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54012278 "His assistant, Ilya Pakhomov, walked down the aisle appealing for medical assistance. A woman, who hasn't been identified, came forward to say she was a nurse. For the next hour she and the flight attendants focused on keeping Mr Navalny conscious until the pilot could make an emergency landing, according to S7 airlines." ""A few minutes after the call-out for a doctor, Alexei started moaning and screaming. He was clearly in pain. He was lying on the floor in the part of the plane reserved for cabin crew. He wasn't saying any words - he was just screaming." That was when a nurse went forward to offer medical assistance, he explains. "I don't know what they were doing, I didn't see," he says. "But I heard them keep on saying 'Alexei, drink, drink, Alexei, breathe!'" "The lawyer heard retching noises as they urged him to drink. Was his stomach pumped?" "Had they suspected food poisoning, the crew may have tried to, says Israeli intensive care expert Mikhail Fremderman. "But that wouldn't have helped in a case of poisoning with organophosphorus compounds, which is what the Germans are now talking about." And if Mr Navalny's food or drink had been poisoned, throwing up would have posed a risk to those offering him medical assistance, as well as those cleaning up the plane later." So yeah, Navalny was really lucky to have on board that random nurse who's never been found give the right instructions for poisoning with a nerve agent, and not do your regular food poisoning thing - Russia must have the best nurses in the world.

This. With things getting into genuine genocide territory, it's painful to just sit it out. And "NATO going in" can mean different things... If Ukrainian mechanized counterattacks are being stopped by Russian aviation... There are four Dutch and an undisclosed [I believe] number of US F-35s in Bulgaria... Plausible deniability is a bitch.

All right, folks; first, two confessions: 1. When the Canadian Parliament declared that Russia was committing genocide in Ukraine, I thought it was overkill, even though I've never doubted Russia's war crimes. 2. Unlike many folks on the forum and in agreement with Steve, I've been opposed to NATO openly entering the war on the side of Ukraine, for all the reasons that Steve has argued + avoiding a nuclear war. Now, if this latest BBC piece can be verified, that all changes. Again, I do demand verification before going ahead with anything, but if all this is true, NATO has to go in - else, it means we were building our own Potemkin village since the Nuremberg trials: [I tried to pick parts of the article to quote but it didn't make sense, so I'm quoting the whole thing with the hope of reaching a wider audience who may not want to or cannot open the BBC website.] Electrocution and beatings: The horrors of Russia's 'filtration' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61683513 "Ukrainians who want to leave cities under Russian occupation cannot do so without undergoing a terrifying process known as filtration. Phones are searched, social media accounts scoured. Anything deemed incriminating can lead to beatings or even electrocution, civilians say, and many are forcibly sent to Russia. Andriy watched anxiously as Russian soldiers connected his mobile to their computer, apparently trying to restore some files. Andriy, a 28-year-old marketing officer, was trying to leave Mariupol in early May. He had deleted everything he thought a Russian soldier could use against him, such as text messages discussing Russia's invasion of Ukraine or photos of the devastation in his city caused by weeks of relentless shelling. But the internet in Mariupol, a once bustling port in southern Ukraine, had been cut off as part of the siege imposed by Russia, and Andriy had not been able to take down some of his social media posts. He remembered the first days of the war, when he had shared some anti-Russian messages and speeches from the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. "I'm screwed," he thought. The soldiers, Andriy told me, already had their focus on him. When he first joined the queues for filtration in Bezimenne, a small village to the east of Mariupol, one of the Russians noticed his beard. The soldier assumed it was a sign Andriy was a fighter with the city's Azov regiment, a former militia which had links with the far right. "Is it you and your brigade killing our guys?" Andriy was asked. He replied he had never served in the army, he started working directly after graduating, but "they didn't want to hear it". As the soldiers went through his phone, they turned to his political views, and asked his opinion of Zelensky. Andriy, cautiously, said Zelensky was "okay", and one of the soldiers wanted to know what he meant by that. Andriy told him Zelensky was just another president, not very different from those who had come before, and that in fact, he was not very interested in politics. "Well," the soldier replied, "you should just say you aren't interested in politics." The soldiers kept Andriy's phone and told him to wait outside. He met his grandmother, mother and aunt, who had arrived with him and had already been given a document that allowed them to leave. A few minutes later, Andriy said, he was ordered to go to a tent where members of Russia's security service, the FSB, were carrying out further checks. Five officers were sitting behind a desk, three wearing balaclavas. They showed Andriy a video he had shared on Instagram of a speech Zelensky had given, from 1 March. With it was a caption written by Andriy: "A president we can be proud of. Go home with your warship!" One of the officers took the lead. "You told us you're neutral to politics, but you support the Nazi government," Andriy recalled being told. "He hit me in the throat. He basically started the beating." Like Andriy, Dmytro had his phone confiscated at a checkpoint as he tried to leave Mariupol in late March. Dmytro, a 34-year-old history teacher, said the soldiers came across the word "ruscist", a play on "Russia" and "fascist", in a message to a friend. The soldiers, Dmytro told me, slapped and kicked him, and "everything [happened] because I used that word." Dmytro said he was taken, with four other people, to a police station in the village of Nikolsky, also a filtration point. "The highest-ranking officer punched me four times in the face," he said. "It seemed to be part of the procedure". His interrogators said teachers like him were spreading pro-Ukrainian propaganda. They also asked what he thought about "the events of 2014", the year that Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula and started supporting pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. He replied that the conflict was known as the Russo-Ukrainian war. "They said Russia was not involved, and asked me whether I agreed that it was, in fact, a Ukrainian civil war." The officers checked his phone again, and this time found a photo of a book which had the letter H in its title. "We got you!" the soldiers told Dmytro. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, claims his war in Ukraine is an effort to "de-Nazify" the country, and the soldiers, Dmytro said, believed he was reading books about Hitler. The next morning, Dmytro was transferred with two women to a prison in Starobesheve, a separatist-controlled village in Donetsk. He counted 24 people in the four-bunk cell. After four days and another detailed interrogation, he was finally released, and eventually reached Ukrainian-held territory. Weeks later, he still does not know what happened to his cell mates. Back inside the tent in Bezimenne, Andriy noticed two other people with their hands tied behind them, who had been left in a corner while the officers paid attention to him. "They started to beat me way harder," Andriy told me, "everywhere". At one point, after a blow to the stomach, he felt as if he was about to faint. He managed to sit on a chair. "I wondered what would be better," he said, "to lose consciousness and fall down or tolerate the pain further." At least, Andriy thought, he had not been sent somewhere else, away from his family. Ukrainian officials say thousands of people are believed to have been sent to detention centres and camps set up in Russian-controlled areas during filtration. In almost all cases, their relatives do not know where they are being held, or why. "I [was] very angry about everything," Andriy said, "but, at the same time, I know it could've been much worse." His mother tried to get into the tent, but was stopped by the officers. "She was very nervous. She later said they had told her that my 're-education' had started," Andriy said, "and that she shouldn't be worried." His ordeal, he told me, continued for two and a half hours. He was even forced to make a video saying "Glory to the Russian army!", a mockery of "Slava Ukraini!", the Ukrainian slogan. The final question, Andriy said, was whether he had "understood his mistakes", and "I obviously answered yes". As he was being released, officers brought in another man, who had previously served in Ukraine's military and had several tattoos. "They immediately pushed him to the ground and started to beat him," Andriy said. "They didn't even talk to him." Ukrainian authorities say Russian forces and Russian-backed separatists have carried out filtration in occupied territories as an attempt to establish residents' possible links with the military, law enforcement and even local government, as the invading forces try to restore services and infrastructure. Men of fighting age are particularly targeted, checked for bruises that could suggest recent use of weapons, such as on the fingers and shoulders. Strip searches are common, witnesses say, even for women. Oleksandra Matviychuk, the head of the Center for Civil Liberties, a Kyiv-based human rights group, said the process, even when not violent, was "inhuman". "There's no military need for this... They're trying to occupy the country with a tool I call 'immense pain of civilian people'. You ask: 'Why so much cruelty? For what?'" Maksym, a 48-year-old steelworker, said he was forced to strip naked while officers in Bezimenne checked even the seams of his clothes. He was asked whether he was from the Azov regiment or was a Nazi sympathiser - he denied being either - and why he wanted to leave Mariupol. "I said, 'Actually, it's you who are on Ukrainian soil.'" One of the officers, who he said were all Russian, reacted by hitting Maksym with the gun butt in his chest. He fell. "I leaned my head on the ground, holding my ribs. I couldn't get up," he said. "It was very painful to breathe." He was taken to what he described as a "cage", where others were being held. He noticed that one man, a weightlifter, had a tattoo of Poseidon, the Greek god, with a trident. The soldiers, Maksym said, thought it was the Ukrainian coat of arms. "He explained it to them but they didn't understand." Those detained in the "cage" were given no water or food, and had to urinate in a corner in front of everyone, Maksym told me. At one point, exhausted, he tried to sleep on the ground. An officer came in and kicked him in the back, forcing him to stand. People would be taken to be interrogated and, when they returned, "you saw the person had been beaten", Maksym said. He witnessed a woman in her 40s lying in pain, apparently after being hit in the stomach. A man, who seemed to be around 50, had a bleeding lip and red bruises on his neck. Maksym believed he had been strangled. No-one in the "cage" asked or said anything to each other. They were afraid that FSB officers could be disguised as prisoners. After about four or five hours, Maksym was released and allowed to leave Mariupol. Days later, he reached safety in Ukrainian-controlled territory, and went to a hospital to treat the persistent pain in his chest. The diagnosis: four broken ribs. Yuriy Belousov, who leads the Department of War at the Ukrainian general prosecutor's office, said his team had received allegations of torture and even killings during filtration. "[It seems to be] a Russian policy which was designed in advance, and pretty well prepared," he told me. "It's definitely not just a single case or [something] done by a local military guy." He acknowledged it was difficult to verify the cases, or estimate the scale of the violence. The Ukrainian authorities are unable to carry out investigations in occupied territories and most victims remain reluctant to share their stories, concerned that relatives in Mariupol could be targeted if their identity is exposed. Vadym, 43, who used to work at a state-owned company in Mariupol, said he was tortured in Bezimenne in March. Separatist soldiers had questioned his wife after finding out she had "liked" the Ukrainian army page on Facebook, and restoring a receipt on her phone of a donation she had made to them. "I tried to stand up for her," he said, "but was knocked down." He got up, but was beaten once more. A pattern, he said, that happened again and again. When Russian soldiers realised where he worked, they took Vadym to a different building. There, Vadym said separatist soldiers asked him "stupid things" and started to beat him. "They used electricity. I almost died. I fell and choked on my dental fillings, which had come out from my teeth," Vadym said. He vomited and fainted. "They were furious. When I recovered consciousness, they told me to clean everything up and continued to give me electric shocks." The torture, Vadym said, only stopped after Russian officers intervened. They carried out another round of questioning before finally freeing him. As Vadym left the building, he saw a young woman, who had been identified during the process as a court clerk, being carried out. "A plastic bag was put on her head, and her hands were tied," Vadym said. "Her mother was on her knees, begging for her daughter not to be taken away." Vadym's release came with a condition: he would have to go to Russia. About 1.2 million people in Ukraine, including thousands of Mariupol residents, have been sent to Russia against their will since the invasion began in February, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia denies it is carrying out a mass deportation, which would constitute a war crime under international humanitarian law, and says it is simply helping those who want to go. Ukraine rejects this claim. Some of those sent to Russia have managed to escape to other countries and even return to Ukraine. How many, remains unclear. Vadym, with the help of his friends, moved to another European country - he did not want to reveal the exact location. He had lost some of his vision, he told me, and doctors said this was a result of head injuries from the beating. "I feel better now, but rehabilitation will take a long time." I asked him what he thought about filtration. "They separate families. People are being disappeared," he said. "It's pure terror." Russia's defence ministry did not respond to several requests for comment on the allegations. The Russian government has previously denied it is carrying out war crimes in Ukraine. Andriy said his mother was told by a Russian soldier that he was going through "re-education" Andriy and his family have now settled in Germany, after also having been forced to go to Russia. Looking back, he believes the occupying forces seemed to be using filtration to show their "absolute power". Soldiers, he said, acted as if it was a "type of entertainment", something to "satisfy their own ego". I told him about another Ukrainian I had met - Viktoriia, a 60-year-old retired engineer. A soldier found out she had added a Ukrainian flag to her profile photo on Facebook, she told me, and the message "Ukraine above all." She said that he pointed his gun at her and threatened: "I'll put you in the basement until you rot!" He then kicked her, she said. Viktoriia could not understand why he had acted like that. "What did I do? What right did they have?" Andriy said he could not explain such behaviour. "I even try to justify the process somehow. Try to convince myself there's some logic." But, he said, "there's no logic"."

This one's for @Kinophile

Continuing with our dissolution of the Russian Federation topic, these guys are not - contrary to what the tweet says - 'Russian' soldiers; though it's interspersed with Russian, they're speaking a Turkic language.

One can only hope that these images have found their way to screens in Kostroma and are resulting in questions being asked [There were even more shocking videos posted by 666_mancer, but the tweets have now been deleted.]: Disturbing content!

An insider's perspective on the question of 'traitors': Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61757667 "An elderly Ukrainian woman brandishing a red Soviet flag has become the unlikely face of Kremlin propaganda after a video of her encounter with Ukrainian soldiers went viral. The BBC tracked down "Babushka Z" to try to establish the truth behind the incident." "The video shows her walking towards two Ukrainian soldiers holding a red Soviet flag. The soldiers say they have arrived to help and offer her a bag of food. Then they take the flag off her, throw it on the ground and stamp on it. So the woman, feeling insulted, gives the food back to them. "My parents died for that flag in World War Two," she says, indignantly. For the Kremlin, this was gold. Russian propaganda is rarely able to centre on individuals, and they saw this woman as a rare example of a Ukrainian who regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and considered the Russians to be liberators." "She has now been immortalised in murals, placards, postcards, sculptures and bumper stickers. Songs and poems have been dedicated to her. Russian officials even unveiled a statue of her in Mariupol, the Ukrainian city that has been bombed to the ground." "Until recently, no one knew the true identity of Babushka Z. In fact, nobody was sure if she was even alive. But she is a very real person. Her name is Anna Ivanovna and we tracked her down to Velyka Danylivka, a village near Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine where she lives with her husband, dogs, cats and rabbits. The lively 69-year-old looks surprised when we show her pictures of the statue made in her image. "Do I really look so old?", she asks. "It's like a stranger is staring at me!" But her story is very different from the image that the Russian media has been painting. She does not support the war. "How can I support my people dying? My grandchildren and great-grandchildren were forced to go to Poland. We live in fear and terror." So why did Anna greet soldiers with a Soviet flag? She says she has been misunderstood. She claims she confused the two Ukrainian soldiers offering her food with Russian soldiers. "I was just happy that Russians would come and not fight with us. I was happy that we would unite again." Anna did not put any political subtext into her act. The red flag, she says, is not the flag of the Soviet Union, not of Russia, but "the banner of love and happiness in every family, in every city, in every republic. Not of bloodshed. And whoever says otherwise, is wrong." While Anna talked, the constant roar of artillery and fighting could be heard nearby. She didn't flinch once - she has become used to it. "If I could speak to Vladimir Putin I would say, you've made a mistake. Us Ukrainian workers, what have we ever done to deserve this? We are the ones who are suffering the most." But Anna is from the Soviet time, and reluctant to openly criticise the Russian leader. "Putin is a president. A tsar, a king, an emperor."" "Anna fears for her safety now. In Ukraine, she is being attacked online because she is seen as pro-Russian. All her neighbours shun her. It's a small village and everyone knows each other. "I'm not happy they've made me famous. Because in Ukraine, now they consider me a traitor." But it's clear that the true scale of her fame only really becomes apparent to Anna at the end of our interview. As we say goodbye to her, she tries to give us her beloved red flag with the sickle and hammer. "I don't want any trouble. I don't want people to ever use it against me.""

WaPo article on Ukraine's Javelin woes - apparently, they require careful maintenance, and there are issues with both that and training with the numbers that have been supplied: For Ukrainian troops, a need arises: Javelin customer service https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/06/14/ukraine-javelin-assistance/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

We kept seeing videos of Russian - and later Ukrainian - aviation being employed as flying MLRS, but this is the first video I've seen where you can actually see how those rockets impact: