Machor

And Buryatia, Kostroma, and the Jewish Oblast were among the top five for Ukraine searches as per Google Trends data that I posted about. Incidentally, while in my original post I hypothesized that the high ranking of Belgorod and Bryansk is due to bordering Ukraine, I am now wondering if the ranking reflects searches by Russian troops waiting to enter Ukraine - my data reflected the sum of the last three months.

Quoting myself with emphasis added: "That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex." And yet, St. Pete drops from 55th to 75th place when you switch from in to on - there is a clear preference that begs for a correlation with St. Pete's liberal political climate. Here are population statistics I took from Wikipedia - estimated 2018 populations for: Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 49,348 Jewish Autonomous Oblast - 162,014 Moscow - 12,506,468 St. Petersburg - 5,351,935 Now, Google Trends does not give the full data necessary for statistical analysis, but given the fact that the former two greatly outrank the latter two while having only 1% of their population, your account could be the sole explanation of this only if almost nobody searches on Google in Moscow and St. Pete. In other words, there can be no denying there has to be an effect of people's level of interest, which for sure coexists with other effects such as usage habits, level of unemployment, etc.

My point was that this problem is probably significantly more common in Donbas than elsewhere, but since @Zeleban and @Haiduk have also chimed in on the topic of loyalty, here's the perspective of a Ukrainian soldier on the ground: 'I watched from afar Russia’s latest merciless assault on Severodonetsk' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050 "In Lysychansk, I meet private first class, Vladimir, serving with a reconnaissance unit in the country's National Guard. Russian forces are adapting, he says, first they came in "bold and got hit hard", now the enemy flattens what it can't capture with infantry. He tells me of his month in Rubizhne. "It wasn't Mariupol, but it was pretty close. It was very hard. There were a lot of losses - a lot of fighting across streets. There was also artillery, just removing those houses very fast. People were trying to hide in the basement so they had no view, no assessment of the current situation. So there were a lot of losses during that time."" "Vladimir - the Ukrainian soldier - says the local population are "30% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian and 40% don't care". Of course, many pro-Ukrainian residents have now fled."

Y'all are wrong, says the NYT: Control of Luhansk, and the wider Donbas region, could hinge on the battle for Sievierodonetsk. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-sievierodonetsk.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur "The battle for Sievierodonetsk, which could fall to the Russians within days, is about far more than one city. Its capture would give Russia a key victory in its drive to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine." "Capturing Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk would give Russia full control of Luhansk, and position its forces to advance farther west toward the city of Kramatorsk in neighboring Donetsk province, one of the last major cities still under Ukrainian control there. If Kramatorsk falls, Mr. Putin’s forces would in effect control the whole Donbas region." It's shake'n'bake, folks.

I found something Objective: So, I was playing around with Google Trends to see if I could find a meaningful comparative statistic for Google searches from Russia using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine"), and that didn't bring anything up. Instead, I stumbled upon this. Methodology: I looked up Google Trends data from Russia for Google searches for the last three months using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine"). Findings: Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") on Google for the last three months: 1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 2. Belgorod Oblast 3. Buryatia 4. Bryansk Oblast 5. Jewish Autonomous Oblast [It is Russian populated; Jews are only 1% of the population today.] Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine") on Google for the last three months: 1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 2. Kostroma Oblast 3. Buryatia 4. Kamchatka Krai 5. Belgorod Oblast Moreover, Moscow and St. Petersburg ranked 56th and 55th among Russia's 83 subregions searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") [Since this is the politically correct form, this would include searches by liberals and dissidents.], and they ranked 58th and 75th among the 83 subregions searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine"). Discussion: Since Belgorod and Bryansk border Ukraine, heightened interest in the war is to be expected. Otherwise, we see that those most actively searching for information on events in Ukraine since the start of the war are far-flung regions where a large percentage of the population are professional military [Kostroma isn't far-flung, but it's piss-poor, and home to a VDV regiment that got wiped out early in the war.], and also the ethnic minority Buryatia and Chukotka, where at least the former are known to have taken very heavy losses in Ukraine. That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex. Conversely, Moscow and St. Petersburg seem to have relatively little interest in the war beyond the official channels, in spite of their large populations. Conclusion: The war is having an unequal impact on Russian society and Russia's diverse regions, and this is already manifesting itself objectively via online data. @LongLeftFlank

A reminder that Ukraine does not have the full home team advantage in Donbas that it had elsewhere: Crowdfunded Chinese thermal scopes for Russian troops: Russian 2S5 Giatsint-S "Sniper":

Interestingly, this is what Ukrainians get to field in response:

This is the same usage in English with examples like 'The Congo' and 'The Sudan': It indicates not so much inferiority, rather a perspective where the territory under discussion lacks sovereignty - it is precisely a colonial 'territory', not a sovereign 'nation'. Therefore, trying to return the favor to Russia doesn't make sense: It's like saying "The Congo invaded Belgium."

Four Ukrainian Su-25s in formation, and they actually seem to be doing formation training - maybe, start with line astern and transition to line abreast? @c3k And a tantalizing thought: Though I've never flown one - virtually, of course; I've never flown anything IRL - the Su-25 looks like it should have docile handling and make for a good advanced trainer. Could these be pilot cadets who've skipped the L-39 and are completing their training on Su-25s, simultaneously gaining experience with an operational platform?

@Grigb Thank you for the detailed reply - I'm sold. It is frankly amazing how targeted the propaganda is.

@panzermartin Thank you for the kind wishes. I'm following the developments in the Aegean, and so far it looks like hot air intended for domestic consumption just like last year. I'll start a thread in General Discussion if - God forbid - things get serious. Assuming I understood the question correctly, I'll try to answer very briefly to avoid derailing the thread: Even though we're celebrating Erdoğan polling lower than 30% nationally for the first time, it is in fact appalling that 29% are still supporting him, even when they have to stand in line for hours to buy discounted bread; for many of these people, Erdoğan is nothing short of a caliph. There are also some 5+ million Syrians and 2+ million Afghans and Pakistanis in the country, who are all loyal to Erdoğan as well. And Erdoğan with his cronies knows that they'll be headed straight for jail after all they've done, as soon as they lose power. Therefore, I still fearfully anticipate - as I've done since 2013 - a civil war that will leave Syria looking like Disneyland. If you think I'm going above my paygrade, Burak Kadercan has also repeatedly stated that civil war is a very likely scenario.

Huba already posted this, but there's now more info on the first M777 loss: We have the second incident since the start of the war where a Su-25 was hit by MANPADS and made it back: And a Ukrainian MiG-29 still operational against all odds:

@LongLeftFlank Unfortunately, I'm not as optimistic as you are: the moan that you can hear when they jerk away the wounded Ukrainian soldier sounds pretty genuine. And, since they were already discussing executing him on the video, they may have just tortured him for intel and executed later. I have seen plenty of confirmed combat footage taken by Russian soldiers both in this war and previously that had little or no swearing. It cannot be the sole criterion for authenticity. I'm also left asking: If the video is a fake, then why? It would have taken some effort to fake everything in the video, so there should be a purpose. Killing two Ukrainian soldiers is hardly a propaganda blow in the scale of this war. And if the purpose was to show Russian soldiers taking prisoners, they undid that by suggesting to execute the prisoner on record.

I see two fine gentlemen with a bone to pick with Sargon the Great.

You are reiterating my point: The problem isn't with NATO and Turkey; it's with Erdoğan and Islamism. Ever since Erdoğan was elected out of obscurity to become the mayor of Istanbul with the promise of converting the Hagia Sophia into a mosque [competing votes were split between two centre-right and two centre-left parties that squabbled among each other] and stated on record: "Democracy is like a tram. You get on where you need to, and you get off where you need to," it was obvious that him and the Islamists had to be nipped in the bud. Instead, both within Turkey and internationally, various factions thought they could draw him to their side, until he became all-powerful. When I stated that Erdoğan was bad news at a leading US university in 2008, I was called an 'elitist' and accused of opposing 'democratization'. Everyone was talking about 'Liberal Islam', and telling me Erdoğan's Islamists were just an Islamic counterpart to Europe's Christian Democrats. If we have made any progress at all, I hope that discourse has now died, and there will be zero tolerance should Islamism rear its ugly head anywhere else. Some Russian (Solzhenitsyn?) said "Russia was crucified on the cross to show the world the evil of Communism;" Turkey was impaled on the stake to show the world the evil of Islamism. RE: Tensions in the Aegean The danger is that Erdoğan has every reason to start a phony war, and then use it as an excuse to declare martial law and cancel elections. He does not even need the Turkish military to engineer a provocation since, like a certain someone, he now has his own military organization, who swear allegiance personally to him. Now, facing Erdoğan's machinations, we have the Greek military who, along with a certain segment of Greece's ruling elite that they are close with, would also love to see Erdoğan start a phony war with Greece. When Erdoğan tried to get cozy with Russia, they responded by killing 37 Turkish soldiers; when he then tried to switch to China, they demanded Turkey extradite all Uyghurs. Therefore, should Turkey lose its ties with the West as well, it would end up more isolated than North Korea. With this reasoning, even if the Greek military does not engineer the first provocation, it would gladly reply to any provocation by Erdoğan with an escalatory provocation, and Erdoğan knows this as well. Thus, you have two actors who would both benefit from a phony war, but these actors aren't nation-states.

'rok armor' is the first upgrade for Ork vehicles. You can spend a few points more per vehicle and upgrade to 'loot armor', which does not increase protection, but provides a morale bonus for the crew:

@cyrano01 That it was a barrel failure was disseminated through separatist channels themselves. You can also see that the guys hanging around aren't in standard Ukrainian camo, and looking too unprofessional to suggest Ukrainian elites.

A reminder that when Turkey joined NATO along with Greece in February 1952, it had free-and-fair elections with a two party system, an independent judiciary, and a GDP close to that of Italy. The only criterion by which Greece would be allowed to join and Turkey refused would be declaring membership open solely to Christian nations.

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm: 'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-ukraine-bakhmut-soldiers-exhausted-1.6278984 "Now, under ceaseless bombardment and after immense casualties, some Ukrainian troops say they are feeling abandoned by their leadership — left to die in hopeless conditions." "Two fighters — Nikita, 35, and his companion, Mikhail, 56, both members of a Ukrainian army unit stationed nearby — just returned from the front line east of Bakhmut, about five kilometres from the city. "The front just comes closer and closer," said Nikita. "We keep getting pushed back, further and further." Nikita has been fighting in this region for more than a month now, pushing back against a Russian assault that broke through Ukrainian lines in mid-May and continues to close in on Bakhmut. His colleague, Mikhail, had also fought in 2014, against the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, he says, is different. "[In 2014], I could fight well enough with my rifle," said Mikhail. "Now, I can't. They hit us with planes, helicopters, mortars, tanks, GRADs [rocket artillery]." "In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything." "We are just cannon fodder," Mikhail interjects." "Despite the thousands of pieces of Western military aid delivered to Ukraine, Nikita said he and his men have seen nothing of them. "We have just our rifles. Maybe an RPG [launcher] or two. Against a tank or an armoured vehicle? What am I supposed to do?" he said rhetorically. In his view, the leadership in Kyiv cares little for those fighting out here. "[Kyiv] has not sent us any new weapons — and they're not going to," said Nikita. "Everything new and fancy has been reserved for those other places: Kyiv, Kharkiv, the big cities. Headquarters thinks, 'Well, you [in the east] have been fighting the Russians for eight years already. You'll be fine.'" Nikita shakes his head, before turning to even harsher words for his superiors. "You have to understand that there are two castes in this country," he said. "There's the upper caste, and then there's us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: 'Forward!' "That's how it's always worked here [in Ukraine]," he said, before emphasizing that he doesn't expect anyone to believe him. "No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked."" "Other soldiers filtering through the shawarma stand also tell dire tales of being outgunned and outnumbered as fighting in the region intensifies. Two scouts with Ukraine's naval infantry, both in their early 20s and both named Sergei, have been fighting since the first days of the war. They arrived in the Donbas after escaping the most difficult battle of Ukraine's war to date: Mariupol, the port city destroyed during a brutal two-month siege. "We've been [fighting] along the entire eastern front line," said the younger Sergei, 21. "We were sent all over in the Mariupol area, in Nikolne, Rozivka, Zachativka," he said, listing villages north of the port city. One of their assignments involved being sent to cover the retreat of Ukrainian forces pulling out of Mariupol — a task they say nearly saw them killed as they were overwhelmed by a Russian force they were not equipped to fight. "Our guys [in Mariupol] were almost encircled, so we were sent there to guard the exodus," said the younger Sergei. "The Russians put out 200 vehicles against us. They caught us and surrounded us in a village. [It was] just 70 of us against all that." The only weapons on hand for that fight, said the older Sergei, 24, were machine guns and a few N-LAWs, British-made anti-tank missiles. "We held out for six days. We managed to destroy the first tank in their column and that held them up, as the others were stuck behind it," he said. "But they brought up their artillery. We had almost nothing to fight them with. Finally, we managed to escape at night — we snuck out on foot."" "Dmitry, a 41-year-old member of Ukraine's Territorial Defence, uses a little humour to confront the grim reality of the situation. "Bakhmut, it's like Monte Carlo," he said, laughing. "Russian roulette on every corner!" Then his eyes darken, and his smile fades. "I can describe the situation here in a few short words," Dmitry said. "Very f--king awful.""

More pics of that busted D-20:

Ukrainian Navy Mi-14PS is attacked by a Russian Su-35 (?) with its cannon; the fighter supposedly finished the chopper off in the second run with an R-73 missile:

Looks like tomorrow is the big day. Turkey says working to agree Ukraine grain export plan https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turkey-says-working-agree-ukraine-grain-export-plan-2022-06-07/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter "Turkey is coordinating closely with Russia and Ukraine to agree a plan that would re-start grain exports from Ukrainian ports even as conflict rages elsewhere in the country, Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said. The United Nations-driven plan would open a safe shipping corridor to address a global food crisis brought on by Russia's invasion in February which halted Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports. Akar said the four sides are working out how mines floating off the port of Odesa and elsewhere along Ukraine's coast will be cleared and who will do it, and who would safeguard the corridor. "We are making efforts to conclude this as soon as possible," he told reporters in embargoed remarks after a cabinet meeting late on Monday. "A lot of progress has been made on this issue" and technical planning continues, he said. Turkey neighbours Ukraine and Russia at sea and has said it is ready to take on a role within an "observation mechanism" if a deal is reached. That could involve Turkish naval escorts for tankers leaving Ukraine and heading toward Turkey's straits onward to world markets. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu hosts his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov for talks on the plan on Wednesday."

Ukraine war: UK to send Ukraine M270 multiple-launch rocket systems https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61701055 "The UK is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine, the defence secretary has said, despite a threat from Russia to the West. Ben Wallace said the M270 multiple-launch rocket system will help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. The UK government has not confirmed how many weapons will be sent, but the BBC understands it will be three initially." "The UK government said the Ukrainian military will be trained in how to use the launchers in the UK in the coming weeks." "Britain and America have led the way in supplying weapons to Ukraine, but giving it advanced long range rockets marks a significant shift, said the BBC's defence correspondent Jonathan Beale. It is also a recognition that Ukraine is struggling to compete against Russia's vast artillery arsenal, he added. The UK's multiple launch rocket system can fire 12 surface-to-surface missiles within a minute and can strike targets within 50 miles (80km) with pinpoint accuracy - far further than the artillery Ukraine currently possesses. It is similar to the system the US is sending, the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Last week Washington said it would supply four HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine - following receipt of guarantees they would be used for defensive purposes only and not to strike targets inside Russia."

Xi must be fuming at Putin. Kishida looks to be first Japanese leader to attend NATO summit https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/04/national/fumio-kishida-nato-summit/ "Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is planning to attend a NATO summit slated for late June in Spain, a development that would make him the first Japanese leader to take part in a gathering of the Western alliance, a government source said Saturday. Kishida’s attendance at the June 29-30 event in Madrid is dependent on the domestic political situation leading up to an Upper House election likely to be held July 10, the source said. Through Kishida’s participation in the NATO summit, officials hope Japan will strengthen coordination with the United States and European countries in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and possible contingencies over the Taiwan Strait."

A reminder that Turkey doesn't get to decide much, since it's bound by the Montreux Convention. If Turkey were to allow naval vessels through the straits, it would be an undisputable casus belli against Russia.