Kinophile

Wot Border Guards doin'?

If you're not already aware of him, this guy (assuming) does really good threads on various Soviet weaponry and vehicles. Time to share.

Big claim. Nm Telenko, it's a Rob Lee/FT tweet. So take with salt.

Not dead yet?

Not gospel truth of course, but extra info.

So Possibly both are true - it is an existing observation post and Teplinksky visited. UKR got wind and ploinked him.

Further to that strange ship attack: We'll see. Could easily be just this: "ship was grounded after Russia blew the Nova Kakhovka dam last June. Being used as a command/control base".

That was my read also.

Sutton is a good source. Observant.

C&C located where, on what coast? For which unit/Service? --- Ffs. Fine, whatever dumbass paperwork needs to be done to legally "protect" Germany from Russia attacking. Gimme a break but sure, fine. As if Russia would ever respect legalities or paperwork.

Not exactly "cut", but definitely a latent and growing threat. Instead of Russia cutting off UKR grain corridor UKR could start sinking RUS/proxy ships carrying stolen grain from Azov/Crimean ports. Wouldn't that be a turning of the worm?

Confirmation bias on my end is possible, but it does still look like 2024 = Hold in the east, Strike in the South. Strike doesn't necessarily mean full ground invasion.

Nice, if true. Feels a little inflated, but there's definitely money to be made in shell production these days, so why not.

Also,

Also,

This is more my angle, such as it is. Ukraine with a stable and steadily increasing shell supply is very dangerous to Russia.

Thats still just a policy setting, no? Eg France no longer exporting to ME. And a half of a steadily rising capacity is not a static number. Whereas Russia cannot spare anything for export, with that situation not improving. Its munitions production is three years into a full scale war and is barely sufficient for how it fights. Ukraine both fights differently now and in the future. Even with the bad shell hunger that lost Avdiivka the Rus offensive still petered out afterwards. There's now strong indications that that hunger is fading. I'm really curious about domestic UKR shell production...

Kerch Bridge delenda est.

There's more nuance than that. 250K in Russia is All calibers. Nato 1.2M is 155 mm only. Quite a difference, plus NATO/West has far, far more latent capacity than Russia.

I'm curious what is the difference in mindset and mission control between RUS and UKR airforces. My impression is that RUS airforces is, like the rest of its military, very plan oriented rather than mission, to the point of weapons release being controlled by Ground Controllers. Is the UKR Air Force much different in mindset? They're flying RUS platforms designed with that Plan mindset, so is there much of a Mission mindset? Is the "difficulty" with f16s about breaking old modes of thinking, or and less about technical challenges?