Der Zeitgeist
-
Posts
320 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Der Zeitgeist
-
-
54 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Were there Leopard factories in Iraq and Afghanistan? Please note that ha logistics across the ocean will have to be paid to Ukraine in the form of promissory notes. Lend Lease is not a free thing
Easy. Let the Germans pay.
I'm not even really joking, this might be one of the easiest ways out of this mess. Scholz would be happy to just send a cheque if that makes the Leopard 2 problem go away.
-
18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
This is the author of this famous book about German prisoners in British camps and their views on Hitler, right? I remember it as very good read.
Yes, that's him, one of our few real military historians. He's getting a lot of air time these days, obviously.
"Deutsche Krieger" is his magnum opus of sorts, where he shows certain cultural continuities of German armies from 1871 all the way to the modern Bundeswehr. One of his main themes is that every successive German state always tried to shape its military politically with its own ideology, but never really succeeded in doing so.
-
18 minutes ago, Hacketäuer said:
I would more or less agree if you mean germany since 1990. Throughout the cold war era the Bundeswehr was certainly not a weak link among the NATO members and I do not see any indecisive Bundeskanzler during that period either.
I don't want to drag this too far off-topic, but about the issue of military capabilties and readiness of the Bundeswehr up until 1990, you might want to read this relatively recent title by Sönke Neitzel.
-
2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Sorry, but other Germans on this board does not demand from us constantly to stop criticizing Germany when it is clearly doing wrong. They provide much needed context, though.
I think in these cases, it's always helpful to remember that we're not here as representatives of our respective governments. I feel no need to support or defend Scholz's behavior simply because I'm not the one being adressed when people here are criticizing Germany.
I find that providing some context especially on domestic political realities in a country can be quite important to understand what's going on, especially since these things are often lost in translation through the international media.
-
1 hour ago, FancyCat said:
true, but Germany has been long been marked out as the weakest NATO country for pressuring to give armaments. Defensive weapons aren't going to cut it. The Marders would have been a great way for Germany to try and turn the page.
From the article linked in May, regarding the PzH 2000s, it illustrates just a very long series of actions characterized by visible slowness, restraint.
Maybe that's because a behaviour in military matters that is characterized by visible slowness and restraint is exactly how most Germans like their country to approach these matters.
I've said it before, many pages ago in this thread:
The Federal Republic of Germany is not a country with any kind of military decisiveness, whatsoever. Military restraint has been the guiding principle of our foreign policy since the country existed. Sure, other countries might wish that we should finally "grow up" or "become normal" or whatever, but the idea that someone looking for leadership in military policy would ask Germany, of all places, is entirely naive. That's just the way it is.
-
7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Take a page out of Macron's book. Be first to deliver something to Ukraine. Even if first is by a couple of days, it matters.
Germany was first with IRIS-T.
-
9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Nice try to construct a narrative,
I'll admit it's less exciting than the Kompromat narrative you guys here seem to prefer.
-
Good thread putting some context into the Leopard saga:
-
12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Furthermore every Coy.Cdr. Btl. Cdr., Brig.Cdr. Div.Cdr. knows exactly how many vehicles / tanks / etc. he has at his disposal and are operational or in repair.
If you ever worked in the German ministerial bureaucracy, you'll know that rule #1 for subordinate units is to only report good news upwards and never tell the ministry anything.
-
Interesting concept. I would argue though that the "Hunter" vehicle seems overengineered and you'd get more bang for the buck by mostly substituting it with lots and lots of Toyotas and quad bikes carrying portable missiles, small loitering munitions and micro UAVs.
-
11 hours ago, poesel said:
Oh boy, do I wish Helmut Schmidt or Wehner or even Strauss would still be alive. That would be FUN - unfortunately, the explanation why is too long and too off-topic here.
Careful what you wish for. Schmidt wasn't exactly a friend of Ukraine.
-
Just now, Battlefront.com said:
Not quite
As I pointed out, this is just the latest issue for Germany. Previous to the Leo issue we had problems with Marders (still do, in fact), Gepards, Dingos, and the one that perplexed everybody... former DDR BMP-1. I'm no doubt missing something that Scholz has screwed up messaging on.
Helmets! Don't forget the helmets!
-
Reposting this here from "that other place" I frequent...
What I find interesting is that if you leave out all the theatrics and simply look at the packages that were announced at each Ramstein meeting, you get very distinct phases of weapons shipments that were highly coordinated across NATO and partner nations:
- Handheld AT weapons/ATGMs/MANPADS
- Ex-Soviet MBTs & IFVs
- Artillery (tube and rocket, self propelled as well as field-artillery)
- APCs & MRAPs (M113, Dingo, etc.)
- Western medium-range SAMs (NASAMs, IRIS-T, SAMP/T)
- Western IFVs <---We are here
This poses the question if the entire thing is actually more coordinated than it might seem and how much of the public hysterics about the "next step" of weapons shipments is simply a useful theater play to make the West look weak and fragmented, possibly to manage escalation risks vs. Russia. Some article I read recently called it "boiling the frog". You gradually heat the water, just like you gradually escalate weapons shipments, instead of sending everything at once and risk Putin doing crazy things.
-
[delete]
-
It seems quite fitting how we're on page 1938 of this thread.
-
12 minutes ago, poesel said:
I really hate having to defend Scholz here and I won’t. But you are interpreting too much into this. The mood in Germany is different from this forum and likely different from the country you live in.
Also, I can’t leave Butschi stand alone here
The thing is, Scholz scholzing it like this makes complete sense for him and the SPD because it doesn't alienate the leftist base of his party, it doesn't make the electorate go crazy (remember, Scholz was only "forced" to send the tanks by the evil warmongering Americans
), and it also manages overall escalation risks with Russia by showing the West as weak and fragmented. In the worst case of direct NATO-Russia military escalation, Germany will have the least responsibility for it. That's Scholz's thinking, in essence.
-
28 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:
Or, and this scares me, are they planning on doing something incredibly stupid and believe that action will cross a line that could result in the west providing Ukraine with weapons that could actually reach Moscow?
The most plausible thing for Russia to shake things up would probably be launching a dozen or so missiles at Rzeszów airbase and see if NATO dares responding in kind.
-
4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Nope, but Russian TG channels wrote about it. It was perhaps not the only one:
I wonder what that does to real estate prices...
-
2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Elections and polls are my bet too. Kompromat is dramatic and exciting, but elections are the true fear of every politician. It takes a lot to beat that fear and take a chance with your political career.
People have done it and succeeded, yet the fear is always an anchor around their necks.
But sometimes you just should.
The big fallacy in these discussions is the assumption that German behavior on the issue of weapons shipments for Ukraine is somehow strange or unusual.
It's not. Reluctance and restraint in military matters has been the single constant in German foreign policy for both CDU and SPS-led governments essentially since our current version of the country existed.
-
4 minutes ago, Huba said:
I have no idea, for sure it wasn't advertised by our gov. I guess the discussion is being waged through media at this point, and making formal request will happen only when understanding is reached. Filing formal request might very well mean that it is formally denied, an outcome nobody would really want.
Also sorry for spamming memes, but this debacle results in a lot of hilarity popping up:
Thanks!
I think my favourite ones so far were these two:
-
7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Scholz's actions are maddening and counter productive, but they are consistent which means there is logic behind what he is doing.
Scholz's impulse is supporting Ukraine only to the level where they can barely hold and not outright lose the war. Everything else, like actually providing Ukraine with the means to go back to pre-2014 frontlines, is completely out of his comfort zone.
It's the classic post-90s German mindset, where military power is a means to "protect" and "stabilize", but not something to achieve anything that could be seen as a military victory.
-
59 minutes ago, Huba said:
BTW, in one hour Polish MoD will hold a press conference and announce the next military package from PL, rumored to be the biggest one yet. Fingers crossed for MiGs.
Do you know if Poland has already formally requested German permission to export Leopard 2 to Ukraine?
-
10 minutes ago, poesel said:
The whole IFV deal seems to have been made just before Christmas with Biden, Macron & Scholz. Seems like Scholz didn't have a problem with being the last to make it public. Must be a first for a politician.
It was essential to be the last. Like I said many times before: It's the fear of Alleingänge all the way down.
-
26 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
There is a real fire in Russian telegram chats. They claim that the American headquarters are now laughing at the helplessness of the air defense of the bases of Russian strategic bombers
Just wait until they find out that the Russian government has to notify the US of any strategic bomber losses there, as stipulated by the New START treaty.
As I pointed out, this is just the latest issue for Germany. Previous to the Leo issue we had problems with Marders (still do, in fact), Gepards, Dingos, and the one that perplexed everybody... former DDR BMP-1. I'm no doubt missing something that Scholz has screwed up messaging on.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Nah, no way. Neither the Greens nor the FDP have any interest in setting up a new coalition or even elections.