Der Zeitgeist
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Posts posted by Der Zeitgeist
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49 minutes ago, Huba said:
Here's a video of missile launches over Kyiv that night (taken from RU Telegram channels, so I guess OPSEC does not apply). I counted 31 missiles launched in just 2 minutes, given the trajectories most seem to be PAC-3 CRI.
https://t.me/dva_majors/15159?single
Edit: and here are some more videos. Indeed the intensity is greater than anything we saw yet:Oh, there's official info from the UA side - reportedly 6 Kinzhals were shot down! Along with 3 Iskanders and some other stuff.
That certainly explains the Patriot barrage. 10 or so ballistic missiles incoming at the same time, 2-3 interceptors per contact.
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3 hours ago, chrisl said:
An open window in his future to fall out of while having a heart attack?
I doubt it. The Russians are still publicly claiming to believe the entire document leak was a NATO disinformation campaign. They'd rather keep a traitor in their ranks than admit they were wrong about that.
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President Zelensky at the award ceremony for the Charlemagne Price in Aachen.
The entire dilemma of German/European policy on the war in one picture.
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45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
See above, Russians claim that was UKR fighters ambush with launches near the border
How likely is it:
a) For Russian air defense to **** up and start sweeping the skies of everything because they think Storm Shadows are inbound
vs.
b) The Ukrainians set up an elaborate SAM trap to catch some special helicopters flying on the other side of the border?
I mean, come on, let's be serious.
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You may all think this was a great day for Ukraine already. Just wait until they win the second ESC in a row tonight.
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Luhansk strikes are pretty much confirmed Stom Shadow, by now.
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4 hours ago, Artkin said:
This guy must be smoking it.
Put a single brigade of troops on a 5km wide map. Your eyes will water with how many items are on the map. Now add the support elements. The game will never run.
Its just nonsense. Doesnt even deserve a written out post.
12 hours ago, dan/california said:Well here is one guys take. And he is a former Italian army officer with deep Ukrainian connections.
2 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:That's just not possible. or he just provide some exaggerate claims here to attract attention.
During cold war a reinforced Soviets Mot Rifle Bn may deployed in an attack formation deal with 3km front, that would cause the Bn form in a multiple echelon formation that is 10-15km long. Now just image 160k + troops deploy in this kind of formation.
The Soviet Division may initially concentrate the whole division's firepower in this 3-4km front to achieve initial breakthrough, then funnel the following battalions through this breakthrough point. But later they will have to expend the gap, because you will need as many roads as possible to support a large formation's safely maneuver and logistics.
39 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:That's 32,000 troops per kilometer. Even in WW1 no one would have force to space ratios that high.
First rule for Thomas C. Theiner:
If you're following him on Twitter, click "unfollow".
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22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I look forward to seeing how Ukraine uses these and how successful Russian air defenses are in thwarting them.
I think their effect will mostly be psychological, considering the UK will (probably) not hand over a lot of these. But the Russians don't know that. Does Ukraine have a dozen, 50, 100? They can't tell, and they have to assume it's as many as Ukraine needs to turn every logistics node and ammo depot in the occupied territory into "cotton", as the Ukrainians say.
We will probably see a couple of highly visible attacks on a few important targets. Impressive mushroom clouds that look cool/scary on social media. The Russians will have to react to that by pulling back certain assets and dispersing depots and logistics. The Ukrainians will reap the benefits of reduced Russian supply on the frontline.
The overall effect will probably be similar to what HIMARS achieved, just on a deeper level.
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I don't get why they didn't cancel the vehicular parade completely.
The narrative of "Russia, only without tanks" will be so damaging in the long run it will be hard to repair.
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1 hour ago, MikeyD said:
We have no information (or I've seen no information) on the use of US Sea Sparrow missiles fired by Ukrainian BUK AA. No info on missile number imported, launcher platforms modified, missiles fired or success rate.
The leak has some numbers on the Buk + Sea Sparrow combination (also called "Project FrankenSAM" in there), I'm not sure if the numbers refer to launchers or missiles, however.
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Well, whatever these documents are, we'll eventually find out if they are legit.
The Russians are sure to test some of the key assumptions contained in them. If they suddenly win the air war in May because Ukraine runs out of SAMs, we'll know it was a real leak.
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Careful guys, make sure you only share posts, not data...
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
And meanwhile, Georgia is having some crowd control problems. OK, two Georgias are, but the one relevant to this thread is the one next to Russia:
The protests are about the partial passage of a Russian style "foreign agents" law which, as with Russia, is intended to control foreign NGOs, especially those involved in promoting good governance, Human Rights, and other such things.
Once an organization is branded a "foreign agent" they can be easily subjected to harassment, unusual scrutiny, and eventually banishment.
Steve
Events in Georgia are showing once again that the biggest supporters of the EU are the ones not in it.
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12 minutes ago, billbindc said:
The tell will be when Putin starts to say that he needs to remain in power to keep more radical actors at bay.
Good thing he can just arrest them and hand them over as war criminals to buy his way back into the international community.
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3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Ah, yes, I should've been more clear. "in the field" meant all the pieces that go into having a trained & supplied and operational battalion sized unit, ready for battle w proper logistics tail. Delivery & crew training could be happening but maintenence & logistics systems need to be set up in theater.
Yes, I guess late summer or so might be realistic. It's really hard to say, and it also depends on what exactly Ukraine wants to do with these new mechanized formations with western kit.
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6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Today I am a very proud and happy German-American.
I am guessing these would be in the field late summer at the earliest? Delivery, crew & maintenence training, logistics, unit training. Hopefully can't get into the fight for at least September/October before the mud hits.
Depends on what "in the field" means. Training on the German 2A6 is currently ongoing in Munster. Transfer to Ukraine should be in late March or so. I guess they'll then do extensive unit training in western Ukraine.
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Germany throws in 4 additional Leopard 2A6. So we'll have a mixed BTL with 21 Leopard 2A6 (14+4 Germany, 3 Portugal) and 10 Leopard 2A5/Strv 122 from Sweden.
(in addition to the 2A4 Battalion from Poland & others)
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The Russian embassy in Berlin now has a Russian T-72B in front of it, destroyed during the Battle of Kyiv. It will stay there till monday.
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3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Btw. did anybody else read also Putin's announcment as rather defensive and gloom? It seems the guy knows he lost, just cannot take a step back.
I see his framing like this:
Stablizing Russia's economy and society as a nation in perpetual war and finding a new normalcy in its self-inflicted autarky. In a way, it's a similar approach to the "Juche"-Ideology of North Korea.
Overall, still playing for time and hoping that the West gives up first.
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13 hours ago, dan/california said:
A coupe of random thoughts about the balloon. Clearly the U.S.is treating it as a dig deal diplomatically. We could demand the Chinese land it immediately. Although I don't think we would do that publicly unless they had already said yes privately. Of course it could "malfunction" and land after private communications.
Assuming non of these things occur it will inevitably move out over water eventually. Do you gentlemen think we will shoot it down and recover it then? Or just let it go.
It's quite likely they simply have no idea how too shoot down something like that. The Canadians tried in 1998 on a much smaller balloon and failed:
You might still think that simply puncturing the balloon envelope would be enough. It might not pop like a toy balloon, but letting the gas out should be enough to bring the balloon down.
The problem though is one of scale. Stratospheric balloons are colossal. NASA’s standard balloons are 40 million cubic feet, a volume equivalent to more than 195 GoodyearGT -1.6% blimps: you could fit en entire football stadium inside one. The balloon envelope is made of plastic material no thicker than sandwich wrap, and the pressure difference between the inside and outside is small. Attempting to let the air out by punching a few holes is like expecting to ventilate an entire warehouse with fresh air by opening one small window.
We know that large balloons are hard to shoot down from previous experience. In 1998 a rogue Canadian weather balloon drifted towards Russian airspace. Fighter jets from Canada, Norway and Sweden attempted to bring it down without success. Two Canadian air force CF-18 fighters hit the balloon with more than 1,000 rounds of 20mm cannon fire off the coast of Newfoundland, riddling it with holes. This was not enough to let a significant amount of gas out, and the balloon continued drifting.
A volley of 2.75” rockets was equally ineffective, as the high-explosive rockets simply flew though the balloon without detonating. This may be the Air Force’s real concern with intercepting the Chinese balloon: any missile fired at it may be a much greater hazard to civilians below than the balloon itself, which is likely to descend slowly if at all. (The Canadian balloon drifted into Russian territory and is believed to have come down in the Arctic Sea).
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8 hours ago, HaplessOperator said:
Here's hoping you guys fixed the Mk19s on the AAVs, Strykers, and Humvees so that weapons companies can accomplish the same tasks they do in the real world. And the Marines ATGM LAVs, for the same reason, and the Canadian LAV with ATGMs, for the same reason. And the Gill.
Nah, keep dreaming.
They never even answered in the thread about this bug in more than three years.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Even the sharks hate them.