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Ashez

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  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-17/melania-trump-s-slovenia-would-pick-russian-over-u-s-protection

    Four NATO Nations Would Pick Russia to Defend Them If Threatened: Poll

     

    This is how 'volunteers' join NATO:

    1. Liberal government with strong ties to NATO countries enforces membership without country -wide referendum.

    2. Government loses elections (from various reasons)

    3. Country is a NATO member whose citizens choose 'Pick Russia to Defend Them If Threatened' during the poll.

    W won't even start what kind of disaster it is for NATO integrity or safety procedures.

    4 hours ago, kraze said:

    When Russia invades the country that has not joined NATO and starts raping and murdering people there - it's GOOD.

    Serious accusation concerning every second Russia related news in US mainstream media has 'undisclosed' or 'trusted sources in US Defence Department' origin. That said - if you combine those exact words with words 'Iraq' or 'US' you will find plenty of stuff over internet.

  2. On 30.01.2017 at 5:51 AM, Battlefront.com said:
    On 10.02.2017 at 4:57 PM, Battlefront.com said:

    In regards to Ukraine specifically, it is also understandable that Ukrainians (including vast amounts of ethnic Russians) are not at all happy with what Russia is doing to their country.  It is natural, understandable, and justifiable that Ukrainian politics are decidedly cold towards Russia as a result.  But there is absolutely no evidence that this extends directly to the Russians living within Ukraine.  

     

    The latest Gallup poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/203819/nato-members-eastern-europe-protection.aspx?g_source=World&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

    Eastern European Countries' Views of NATO in 2016
    Do you associate NATO with protection of your country, as a threat to your country or do you see it as neither protection nor a threat?
    Ukraine 29 35 26

    Comment:

    Ukrainians Sour on NATO

    The proportion of residents of Ukraine -- a potential NATO member state until a few years ago -- who view NATO as a threat has increased in recent years after years of steady decline between 2008 and 2014. In 2014, after NATO sanctioned Russia after it annexed Crimea, Ukrainians for the first time were more likely to see NATO as protection (36%) than a threat (20%). However, the percentage viewing it as a threat shot back up to 35% in 2016 as the Ukrainian population has grown tired of the ongoing conflict between its military and Russian-backed separatists, as well as a poor economy and rising crime rates.

    So again - situation in Ukraine differs from 'US reality' and certainly it is far from black and white propaganda style.

  3. On 30.01.2017 at 5:51 AM, Battlefront.com said:

    Wrong.  I sympathize with what is most likely true.  I sympathize with the party that is the victim of foreign aggression.  I sympathize with the people that are unnecessarily dying for another country's benefit.  It is coincidental that point of view happens to coincide with that of Ukraine's point of view.

    Of course, spending 5bln USD to finance the removal of democratically elected pro-russian president has nothing to do with it. Conducting regime change so Russia can be further isolated and dislodged from its most strategically important base on Crimea?. Ukraine's point of view? You mean that 17% support Poroshenko has or armed irregulars that roam the country freely? You know that pro-russian party is again third force in parliament? Please Haiduk, correct me if I am wrong, I did't see latest polls. Last time I checked Poroshenko was below Yanukovitch's all time lowest result.

    So for whose benefit they are dying? Corruption is rampart. Over milion Ukrainians migrated to Russia, over two million to Poland, 60% of population lives below poverty line and its getting worse and worse. People in Ukraine hope it is eventually going to be better but it's not. Ukraine will never join EU (if EU is still there) because noone -save Poland, Germany and Baltic states - really wants them. Ukraine will not join NATO - not before the 3rd world war at least. EU made the trade deal with Ukraine, but it is killing ukrainian agriculture with dramatically low quotas.

    Ukraine needs peace and BIG amount of economic help. But not only they are not getting enough, they spend it on war. War they can't finish without approval from Washington. How long will it take before Ukrainians realize they have been used and fed with false promises? That the debts have to be repaid?  

    From military point of view this thread is interesting, but going a level above I have a feeling its straight from McCain's -or other madman's -sick war fantasies.

     

    2 hours ago, kraze said:

    Always sounds funny when somebody calls an occupation of the territory of another country and murder of its people - "liberation".

    I wonder if russians in this thread or across the internet even understand how much hatred for themselves they plant into ukrainians for centuries to come by being so hypocritical - or even care

    Surely, whole transatlantic community must feel very wrong about stealing most iconic and historical part of Serbia and creating an albanian enclave there. And how Iraqi people love their 'liberation'.You would be surprised how many Ukrainians would like peace and reconciliation with Russia. On the other hand I have no doubt USA is single most hated country in the world.

    Hypocrisy?

    Let me toss a few examples of hypocrisy.

    - Bush and Blair engineering Iraqi WMD plot to invade souvereign country
    - British crying against Crimea annexation but reluctant to release Gibraltar.
    - British pretending there is no oppresive regime in Bahrain because they are permited a naval base there.
    - US calling syrian jihadists (those willing to cooperate) 'moderates'
    - US having as military allies two biggest terrorists sponsors (Saudi Arabia and Qatar) but invading Iraq.
    - McCain calling Putin "war criminal".
    - Accusing Iran but having no will to control Israel's nuclear potential
    - supporting Saudi genocide in Yemen
    - accusing Russia of war crimes (knowing how irregular enemies use public faciliies for cover and propaganda) despite producing large collateral damage themselves (USA)

    - telling own public opinnion that Crimea's russian population did't want to join Russia (ridiculous as it sounds)

     

    Want more? You see the pattern?

     

     

     

     

     


  4. As for recruiting numbers, the last official ones I saw showed that they filled their quotas quite easily.  This is an important thing to note because one of the things that weakened the Ukrainian armed forces prior to the war was the ability to buy one's way out of military service.  That plagued the system horribly at the start because pretty much everything was being done according to how they were done before (including massive fraud and corruption).

    It is true that a large segment of the Ukrainian population would rather give Donbas to Russia and not invest another life or Hyrvnia into retaking it.  I do not know what the opinion is today, but it was about 60% this past winter.  That said, there are no widespread movements to "sue for peace" as Putin had hoped for.  Which seems to indicate that the Ukrainian population is more ambivalent towards a military solution than they are actively opposed to it.

    Regardless, my point about relative morale is still solid even for the time period of the report we are talking about.  The Ukrainians, overall, had a much higher motivation to fight than the separatists.  Which is understandable since a large chunk of the separatists are not Ukrainian and a chunk of them are fighting only for money/adventure and not a deep seated belief system.

    Steve 

     

    Massive fraud and corruption is still there. you can still buy one's way out of military service with ease, You can go study to Poland or Belarus, there is no problem. Quotas are still filled easily - not because of morale growth - but because serving in armed formations is one of the few ways to avoid effects of extreme poverty and lack of semi-proper health care. Staff in many hospitals will not use latex gloves if you don't bring your own. Whole country can fall into chaos any day, Ukraine needs help - BIG investments, not placeholder loans that barely allow to buy gas from Russia to survive winter.

    I don't also get get your 'high motivation' thing. There is no uniform 'high motivation' in Ukrainian forces. There is a regular army (Russian speaking in majority  and still saturated with many pro-Russian officers), volunteer groups, nazi right sector groups and almost as many mercenaries as the opposing side has. On the other hand majority of separatists are Russian speaking Ukrainians (surprise!) whose cities had been bombarded for a year by Ukrainian artillery (and I don't mean frontline fighting) and who were repeatedly refered as 'bugs' or 'sub-human' by Ukrainian government:

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBy7tQ124Fk

    Their motivation and morale proved to be very solid during the conflict and accusing them of fighting only for money and lack of belief system is something disturbing and often comes hand in hand with a process of enemy dehumanization.

    You should also be aware that US sources attitude varies from biassed to an outright lie, where distorting news and data and interpreting them to fit pre-built assumptions is most common.

    I was reluctant to write this post at first - knowing how unwelcome - it was going to be for some, but I want to warn people who try to base their knowledge about this conflict on this forum: DON/T.

  5. I'm going to stop this right now. If you want to repeat Russian propaganda verbatim and not point out that when Putin wants something he just has the guy arrested and gives the billions of Dollars of stuff away to his friends, then you should probably not post any more.

    Somewhat related, the Brits are threatening to publish Putin's personal holdings that they know of. The estimates I've heard are somewhere in the $70-$90 Billion. I don't know what the KGB pension plan is, but it sounds like it's pretty nice!

    Steve

     

    Of course I will not post here anymore as apparently it is pointless. Every John Doe living thousands of miles away, not understanding the language, not knowing anyone personally and who has never been to Ukraine or Crimea, is suddenly an expert on Ukraine, but people who understand Russian and Ukrainian and having their cities swarmed by Ukrainian 'students' are suddenly internet trolls. If you question the validity of Azov picture go to Lviv to one of the Right Sector pubs, you're gonna get more along with personal autographs.

     

    Your understanding what is going on in Ukraine and Europe is well...lacking at best. Half dozen of Region Party politicians committed 'suicide' since the beginning of the year, corruption is bigger than before, all anti-maidan people living on Ukraine are devoid of any parliamentary representation and I read that Ukraine is building 'democracy'. Greece is demanding enormous war reparations from Germany on top of its poor economical situation and I will not even start on potential conseqences - enough to say that Europe could be on the brink of biggest crisis in its most modern history - but yeah, it is going to 'rebuild' Ukraine no matter how much it is destroyed.

     

    Please also consider tagging this forum in an appropriate way so everyone knows which side is 'right' and 'wrong' and what the 'propaganda' is. Great way to prevent trolls from posting! Fox news would be proud!

     

    Have a nice debate sirs!

  6. My only questions about Putin are 1.  What name does he plan to adopt at his coronation?  2. his choice of Czarina? 3.  Will he try to install one of his daughters as his successor, or does he have an illegitimate son floating around somewhere?  He is a little old to bet on lasting long enough to perk an heir from scratch.

     

    He wouldn't be the first Monarch in history to "discover" such a son at a convenient moment.

     

    Pretty bad joke. Especially concerning that if Putin does promote/support his daughter he does it in a very discreet way. Contrary to Joe Biden who has blatantly 'installed' his son in Ukraine's biggest gas company. Long live Biden dynasty!

  7.  

    Back to our topic, I am afraid that you have it backward about Putin.

     

    If he hasn't ditched the separatists it is because he would lose face. And this is precisely when his popularity would plummet dramatically, not by standing up against the West as Moscow is portraying the whole affair. The internal risk for him is greater if he folds. The man has built his reputation on strength, machismo and restoring Russia's pride. Russia has felt humiliated by the West and the USA in particular since the fall of the Berlin wall and the lost of her superpower status. That this perception is justified or not is irrelevant, it is the mainstream view. He doesn't fear sanctions or internal trouble now with the majority of the population backing him, as strange as it may sound to people in the West, as much as he fears losing face. His veneer of strength would vanish and that would be the beginning of his downfall.

     

     

     

    That's actually a very profound observation. We (here in the West) are always told that our geo-political opponents are despotic, violent, and irrational (at best). That is something that is pretty much expected by any decent researcher of foreign affairs; and our treatment or Russia and Putin (in particular) is no different in that respect. What I fear however, is that few Westerners realize that an alternative to Putin is not some pro-Western liberal government (a-la 1990s); but much rather a more nationalistic and militant force (a-la Strelkov/Dugin/Prokhanov) that would make Putin look like a pro-Western liberal democrat. We are playing with fire when it comes to Russian political landscape, yet I don't see any visionaries in the US or EU governments to calculate the consequences of our actions.

     

     

    I think these two posts are the best this thread was able to produce so far.

    I dare to add that every month of sanctions strenghtens Putin a little and strenghtens the Russian 'hawks' even more at the same time. Putin was never so popular in Russia as he is now and 80% of Russians declares USA enemy. Regardless of the propaganda on both sides everyone pretty much knows by now USA and US money was involved on Ukraine during the coup. And for Russians Putin is a hero who restored Crimea, a leader they always wanted.

     

    I don't think any sactions are going to break them. Especially when they all think their leader is doing the right thing. In fact I think the only effect sanctions are going to bring is putting DEFCON at 2. Or worse.

  8. It think you are right, they are most likely quite incompetent. Separatists are thrown to battle with very little or no military training at all. 

     

     

    Thank you for your expertise.

    First separatists' units were trained in Russia months before the conflict exploded. I think now their level of training varies but still it is far superior to Ukrainian militias.

    They are well armed and rotate regularly .

    I read about a man from Slaviansk who claimed that ammo and supply crates were stacked and hidden weeks before unrest started.


  9.  Losses are said by several sources to be around 50 dead and 200 wounded. Which added to what they pulled out is pretty close to 3000. So it seems the numbers are at least reasonably accurate.

    Polish edition of the Newsweek writes about people welcoming Debaltseve defenders at Kiev Rail Station. Journalists who asked soldiers about dead were told about 'several hundred dead' 

  10. Steve, thanks for ringing in on this topic.

     

    What are some good sources (English-language) that one can follow these events on?  

     

    There are not any reliable English -language sources, and majority are counter-informative. Only reliable information can be only obtained from vkontakte (russian/ukrainian version of FB), mostly from soldiers and their families. Friends and their relatives near combat zone can be informative but still limited in their military knowledge. Local media can also be helpful.

     

     

    HAHA! That guy should do standup comedy. He's about the least reliable source of information out there.

    Nope. Ukrainian military is still less reliable. According to numbers they have been providing since beginning of the conflict Russia must have lost half of its population.

    And to be honest: since the Ilovaysk battle it is pretty obvious that when separatists talk about 'cauldron' or 'encirclement' they are not far from truth - premature and overoptimistic in their reports, but still more accurate than total denial presented by Lysenko.

     

    Concerning Debaltseve and the cauldron:

     

    It is increasingly difficult to find reliable information in Ukrainian media too as censorship is running rampart but here you can see col. Yuri Sinkovsky, dep. commander of the 'Krivbass'  batallion. He claims he risks the martial court to bring attention to dramatic situation of his troops surrounded in Debaltseve area. Low on ammunition and supplies and with no contact with HQ. Legal considerations whether surrender with no ammo is treason punishable by martial court or it is not follow.

     

  11. Also why haven't the Ukrainian forces counterattacked?

     

     

    Because they have no army, only volunteers consistently fight. The conscription efficiency was about 15%. Officers cadre is saturated with Russians and Russian sympathizers - neither HQ nor soldiers trust them. HQ itself is infiltrated. There are 8 mln ethnic Russians  in Ukraine, over 4 mln still living outside of Crimea or combat zone. There are millions of Ukrainians  who voted for Yanukovitch (elected according to all democratic standards) who all now are devoid of any democratic political representation (their parties/representatives declared illegal). Ukraine is far from being homogeneous, even not considering the frontline.

     

     

    My sense is that the separatist/Russian soldiers have probably lost 3-4 times as many dead and wounded as Ukraine. I think that is conservative and it does include the fairly significant losses Ukraine suffered in the past few days. Loss of equipment seems to be a bit more favorable to Ukraine.

     

    I disagree. With superior equippement, morale and command they can afford to limit loses and still meet political and military goals.

     

     

    Even if it was 1:1, Ukraine has a deeper pool of replacements for men than the separatists do.

     

     

    No. Further conscription attempts will put the country dangerously close to another rebellion, at least at some areas. People in Donbass enlist for separatist army willingly (and to be honest this is often the only way they can feed their families) and it is suspected that some oligarchs pay both sides for immunity. And there is always endless mecrcenary source in Russia.

     

     

    Then there is the political fallout that is already starting to happen. Minsk 2 was the last chance for Russia to show that negotiations could work. It's now proven (yet again) that Russia's word has no practical value, t

     

    Contrary. The inevitable fall of Debaltseve was an obvious fact to all sides of the agreement and bears no impact on its viability. And I think cease -fire is still probable. In long term there is only one side interested in prolonged war: USA - as the conflict makes whole Europe less competitive.

     

    And there is Biden's son 'helping' big Ukrainian gas company....yeah

     

    There is even a joke:

    Q: "How long will USA fight Russia in Ukraine?" 

    A: "to the last Ukrainian volunteer standing"

  12. Most likely Western experts, who, unlike their Russian counterparts, are free to share the information that they have, regardless of political concerns.

    I am pretty sure you studied a lot of works of Russian experts on the subject.

    And good luck reproducing reliable results while ignoring experts from the country manufacturing half of the equipment in game. Certainly I wouldn't play YOUR game.

    We are taking an objective and critical look at all available sources of information. I think most gamers will be happy with the results.

    Sounds very well!

  13. That was funny. When did "Russian experts" ever have an opportunity to say what they really think? Everything that comes out of Moscow is of course thorougly checked by Putins PR people, to make sure it's consistent with the official propaganda.

    I really hope that Black Sea will not have any fantasy super weapons based on Russian information, but rather more realistic assesments of the Russian equipment.

    And you will build realistic assessments based on what information? Iraqi T-72s using ammo that was almost of my age? Good luck.

  14. Afternoon Gents.

    It would of been nice to see the only recently conceptualised "Armata" MBT in CM:BS and its a shame we wont. A 152mm APFSDS or GLATGM would make an unfortunate mess of any M1.

    Well, Russian experts believe that most recent iteration of T-90 is more than a match for any MBT.

    As for the three Russian tanks entering ukraine. It is highly likely, judging from viewing the pictures myself, that they are the same vehicles captured in Crimea, resprayed, then given to the separatists with a small training package or to experienced ex-soldiers or reservists. Many media outlets are claiming T-72 but they are obviously T-64BV which the Russians do not operate in the Moscow District, let alone in the rest of Russia.

    This. They are -no doubt - T-64s -a tank still in service in Ukrainian army.

  15. As for world coverage I am afraid Russia Today is a least as biased as any Western media outlet is likely to be and does seem to give a very pro Kremlin slant on things.

    Certainly.

    Anyhow, CM:BS is a (luckily) a fictional war so BF.C could decide certain things even if they are not 100% plausible. I would like to see China featured in the game :)

    Agreed. BF guys already proved their exceptional insight, but I do not think the campaign layout is set in stone by now and some adjustments can be introduced.

    One thing worth mentioning about Belarus: After signing Eurasian Economic Union agreement, Belarus' President stated: "We believe the Economic Union will be the foundation for the future of political, military, and humanitarian unity".

    I think this is a clear indication that Belarus would not assume a passive stance. And -just to remind you - earlier this year, Belarus -together with Russia - participated in a joint military drill "Zapad 2013" simulating attack on Poland and Baltic States.

  16. My two pennies worth:

    Initial military forces are:

    1. US Army

    2. Russian Army

    3. Ukrainian Army

    "Uncons" are also planned, though I am not sure there will be much (if any) of that in the Base game release.

    Steve

    Ukrainian Army is unlikely to take any offensive action. It is badly trained and demoralised and often refuses to act against pro-Russian Donezk insurgents.

    We have concluded that Belarus would sit it out, though would give covert support to Russia. In fact, part of our storyline's details is they

    allow Russian special forces to infiltrate into northern Ukraine (west of Kiev) through Belarus' territory.

    NATO would not likely want to start a war with Belarus as it would have it's hands full in the Ukraine. Belarus, on the other hand, wouldn't want to risk Poland and the

    Baltic states taking their own form of action for which Russia would be of no help.

    No, as I see it Belarus would likely want to stay out of a direct and overt role in the conflict.

    Steve

    I think Belarus would military support Russia. Baltic states are weak military and they have large Russian minorities - I do not think they would be capable of any offensive action. Polish army is currently logistically incapable of any substantial military action (maybe some special forces or aircraft) outside own borders.

    Ukraine is frighteningly close. I am quite sure that Russia will annex at least parts of eastern Ukraine as well. There were already reports of troops in russian uniforms and with russian equipment operating in Donezk.

    It is not that simple.

    During his recent interview for French TV Putin said there were no Russian troops in Donezk and demanded the proof from those who claim otherwise. I am pretty sure Ukrainians and CIA are trying hard to find and present one but with no success. Everything we have seen so far proved to be fabricated. Recently Ukrainian Euromaidan PR published pictures of Syrian refugees and claimed they were from Donezk (just to show you the scale of misinformation).

    Donezk rebels consist of locals that have been trained in Russia for several years as well as mercenaries from Chechnya who recently joined them.

    While some of the equipment - often expensive - was surely smuggled through border I believe the majority of combat gear is acquired from Ukrainian troops- some freely given,some stolen and some bought from corrupt soldiers (for example rebels in Sloviansk claim they pay around 2k USD for rpg with 6-7 missiles.)

    Also, the annexation will not happen - as it is not in Russia's interest.

    In addition to US, Ukranian and Russian I would like to see (eventually)

    British

    French

    German

    Dutch

    Belgian

    Polish

    Italian

    Romanian

    Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia. Lithuania)

    Belarus

    Moldova

    Trans Dniester (Pro Russian Paramilitary types)

    France and Germany are unlikely to take any military action against Russia (unless NATO member atatcked) because of economic ties with Russia and lack of support for such action among own people. I do not think they are going to risk economic breakdown and social unrest. Italy -with own set of problems - is even more unlikely to do anything (recently Italy's prime minister even stated that Russia is entitled to care for own interest and that Poland and Baltic States shouldnt be listened as driven by a sheer Rusophobia.)

    Britain could participate in such war, but not without heated internal debate - there still a lot of bitterness connected with Iraq and how the UK was maneuvered into war by Blair and Bush.

    Thats all about possible major contribution. Paradoxically you forgot about one country that would be likely to support US in such war: Turkey -they have a powerful army and could be willing to exploit Russia's weakness to gain influence on Crimea and Caucasus. During the Crimean crisis they already went as far as threatening Russia.

    On the Russia's side Belarus would be more likely than not to join the war (being potentially the next in line). It is not clear what would Serbia do, I think it depends whether it is accepted into EU or not and whether EU still exist in near future.

    There is a significant chance China would join the war on Russia's side to prevent US dominance for next decades. They could do this directly or take advantage of US involvement in Europe to completely throw away USA from SE Asia.

    Those of you interested in unavailable elsewhere insider details on the nits and grits of the Ukraine Crisis are invited to come to my site

    I wouldn't recommend this site as a reliable source of detail on Ukrainian Crisis. In my opinion It is one sided and based entirely on US and Ukrainian media, full of ridiculous statements and straight out hatred. You will not find anything valuable there. To be honest, even for someone knowing ukraine, language and browsing all the independent and social media it is often very hard to deduct the course of events through excessive misinformation on both major sides.Living -probably -thousands miles away, having only distorted and remote idea about the subject and advertising such site here-thats the feat!

  17. Well, ambush of that sort should take some time to prepare. It should also take discipline and training to execute well.

    I also can't see ways to avoid /counter the ambush real soldiers would have. CM AI won't peek inside the building and throw grenades before actually allowing anyone inside - they will walk in blindly. One minute order cycle can also make ambush order more devastating than it should.The link above: If BF really thinks about ambush/other order combo they might consider 'on contact fall back' order to counter it a bit and also making soldiers with the 'hunt' order more likely to spot enemies.

    Such doubts. The quality of the H2H game is at stake and I see the 'ambush' order as a potential way to ruin it.

    Many complain that CM in its current state favors the attacker.

    Really? Maybe against defending AI. In a h2h game the attacker has no chance without significant numbers/quality/support advantage.

  18. If people are having problems with their ambushes it's probably because the terrain isn't suitable; they've got unrealistic expectations of how close the enemy can get without their own guys getting spotted or just dumb luck.

    This.

    And in this case 'harder than easier' is definetly better for the game -until -in some future -engine is able to simulate more complex situations.

    I think BF shouldn't allow to transfer more decision making from tactical SI (despite all its imperfections) to the player. We already see BAD ideas like squad formations (that would result in player's meta knowledge removing any uncertainty from the game). It is just a matter of time someone asks BF to enable FPS mode and shoot enemies manually - for more control. BAD direction in my opinion.

  19. That is indeed the plan. The mystery part is that they're 'working on it'. Doesn't seem terribly complicated. The AI's not going to use it anyway.

    One suspects it will be a game changer in h2h matches.

    And this is what I fear. A positional game where both sides are afraid to move and the winner is the one who ran to objective faster.

    Ambush should rarely be a guaranteed success and should require discipline and coordination. Just pointing a gun in a given direction is not ambush and there is no reason why those doing that should remain hidden.

    Also, bear in mind that -from the soldier point of view - in majority of CM scenarios the contact with enemy IS expected.

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