db_zero
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Posts posted by db_zero
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Came across an argument that the Russians only have a few days worth of heavy artillery ammo on hand and will have to start conserving. The ammo factories have been partially cut off from raw materials and wouldn't be able to crank out enough in a short amount of time anyway.
Prediction is if the Ukrainians can hold out for 3-4 days the Russian big guns will be spent.
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Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on.
Besides Molotovs, remember when large sheets were used to blind vehicles crews?
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13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I thought modern APCs were resistant to molotov cocktails?
I would think burning gasoline being sucked in through the engine grill isn't very healthy for any vehicle.
Saw a video where over 5000 molotovs were being made on 1 street corner alone. This could get very nasty for the Russians.
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China is watching this closely. Wonder if their assumptions about taking Taiwan with a sea/air assault and subsequent movement through some very difficult mountainous through highways covered by dense jungle and surrounded by cliffs, with bridges, choke points and caves is going to change.
and once they get through all that take very modern and stoutly constructed urban centers.
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Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops"
Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience.
If this is true and accurate then its telling that Putin is asking and sending foreign fighters to assist.
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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I'm hoping Ukraine wins this war, but on the other hand, I'm starting to worry about what might happen if Putin loses.
If I were NATO I would say we heard you and extend a guarantee that Ukraine stays out of NATO.
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18 minutes ago, Holien said:
Each Russian soldier has at least 6 family members on average and maybe many more that will be influenced by that contact. Really smart move. Public pressure inside Russia will help...
Not only that but imagine if Putin does decide to use a weapon like the TOS-1 in a urban area and Russian prisoners are present there will be hell to pay back home.
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I’m hearing the Ukrainians are letting captured Russian troops to call home and talk to family…
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If this end up being a complete Russian fiasco I would hate to be the generals who will have to face Putin.
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2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Hell I am talking about Twitter! Come on, invasion 101 guys, cut the power, cut off communications and bring lots of gas, then be ready to stay for awhile.
Cut off Twitter? You want to start WW4?
Sounds like bad planning or too many bad assumptions.
Will this be another 1948 like Arab-Israeli fiasco where David beat Goliath or Russian-Finland fiasco? Stay tuned.
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6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
I guess it was next to "gas" on the note on the fridge.
In Crimea, Russia had hacked the cell phone system to a frankly stunning degree, I guess they figured "meh" on this one?
may be another explanation. The US provided advanced tactical communication and command and control gear and training after 2104 and had time to analyze what Russia did in the Crimea. They may have and may continue to be providing some sort of support in the electronic and cyber spectrum area. That aspect is usually very hush-hush.
I have no doubt Strategic, operational and tactical intelligence is being fed to the Ukrainians. Drones, recon assets operating in Europe and Satellites are undoubtedly operating at full speed.
Think the shoot down of 2 transports loaded with paratroopers was a chance encounter?
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5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Speaking of which, how/why does Ukraine still have internet and phone?
Unless the Russians start jamming or knocking out satellites, cell towers and making sure all land lines are cut you'll be able to send and receive communication.
Or maybe someone didn't think of it
Also keep in mind cyber and information warfare is part of Russia's strategy so they need it as much as Ukraine.
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I saw another video where a out of gas AFV crew stranded on a road was asked where are you going and the response was "we don't know"
So much has been made of the "New and Improved Russian Army"
Does anyone know if enlisted men know how to read a map, use GPS? Are any NCO's or enlisted men even issued maps or GPS in the new Russian army?
Or is this still the old school Russian army where only officers have a general idea of what going on?
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Netherlands is sending 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine.
There are 2 US drone flying around Ukrainian airspace according to reports.
Besides unit tactics training before the conflict the west was also providing communication gear and command and control gear and training to “better integrate”.
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Wow! I'm now seeing the US is willing to evacuate Zelenskyy, but he is refusing to go.
Barring some miracle Putin will take Ukraine, but will it go down as a pyrrhic victory?
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4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Ok, let’s do China for a minute. China’s not in the same league as Russia, I am not sure they are even playing the same sport. China’s trajectory and activities mirror US early days as a rising power in the 19th century, they are in this to win. Win what Capt? Win the pen that gets to write the new set of rules.
So What about Ukraine? Well if you are trying for top dog, it does not mean you just have weight to throw around, you must also lead. China has done this in its sphere but globally it has been standing back and waiting. This whole thing is not helping China in my opinion. They are playing a long game and a kinda-partner lit half the board on fire. This is damned awkward for them as they are not ready to take over global leadership, they lack the clout or street cred and the US, while a little bruised up, is no where near ready to toss in the towel. So now Russia starts a ruckus and they are trying desperately to not take a side while looking weak in the process; this does not promote a global leadership image and they cannot break with Russia the next biggest power in the “out club”.
And then there is India..like what the hell guys?!
Definitely egg on the face on China. As diplomatically as i can say it to keep this thread open, perhaps both Russia and China were reading too much into domestic US politics and thought they had an advantage and this was a time to make moves and mis-calculated. It happens.
Just a though but in the end IDK...
As for Putin's end game? I would look at google maps and mark off the urban areas, major rivers and ports and overlay that with what Putin gobbles up. There are the areas where political and economic power flow through.
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20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
You know this is what I can’t get past either. Up until now Putin has been pretty careful and demonstrated nuance and sophistication in his strategies. The list of successes is quite long, all based on careful manipulation of narrative, subversive tactics and a brilliant divide and conquer effort aimed at the west, US specifically. Georgia, Estonia, Crimea, Donbas v1.0, Syria, the Arm-Azer conflict, democratic interference and even in far flung corners like Africa Russia has been pulling off a string of wins by getting inside our calculus and leaving us in the west unable to decide what to do.
Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…? Does not add up. Further, what is the crisis worth risking all this? Some say Ukraine entry into NATO but it was not like they were having the induction ceremony this week. There was plenty of rumbling in the west to slow roll Ukraine entry for this exact reason. So why the sudden need for extreme escalation?
From a political and strategic perspective this does not make a lot of sense. The risks are very high, the long term costs also high, so what is the pay off here? It is too easy to say “he is crazy”, but he has not demonstrated this level of irrationality before. It like there has been a glitch in the Matrix. I am sure they will be trying to figure this one out for some time.
Hard to say. Putin has been a smooth operator, but perhaps his success and ability to get away with murder has caught up with him.
Its also time to bring up China. By aligning with Putin and allowing Putin to move forces from the flank that was guarding the front with China they should be held to some account. They are trying to play it cool and not come out completely on Putin's side and make statements to the effect that both sides should negotiate, but who are they fooling? I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe the report that they really didn't believe Putin would actually go forward and launch and full scale assault and are now trying to backtrack, but still some punishment is in order.
I say we send Taiwan some Javelins, Stingers and dangle some F-15X's to send a message to China. They are complicit in Putin's venture into Ukraine.
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25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
On a little side note about perceptions: I have heard from so many folks my generation or older how soft and weak young people are today, they're pansies who can't stop staring at phones, blah blah blah. Yet thousands of those pansies are lining up to recieve AK47s and will probably die in the hundreds over the next few days. Every generation has the ability to be tough and brave, it just doesn't show until they are tested. Like all those kids who signed up for the military after 9-11. I salute all them all.
Now if one person could just somehow find a way to put a bullet through Putin's face. What a monster. Threatening nukes, threatening Sweden & Finland, threatening everyone. He is completely insane and out of control. I hope the russian people rise up and their brave soldiers refuse to fire on the crowds. Those soldiers are the only thing between Putin being in charge and Putin strung up on a lamppost.
I guess I'm just upset seeing what is happening to the good people of Ukraine, minding their own business, living in an independent country w a lot of freedom & culture & history.
I have to give President Zelenskyy the Man of the Year Award and great respect for the internal fortitude and courage he is showing in the face of overwhelming odds. Unlike others who fawn over dictators, talk tough, incite insurrection and chaos and bail when the going get tough, Zelenskyy has more than shown his meddle.
This is going to change a lot of people perceptions on the cast of characters who dominate the spotlight.
We've entered a new world...
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Ukraine has asked for more Javelins and Stinger and as mentioned a re-supply convoy passed through Poland into Ukraine.
I also saw report that aside from US conventional forces being used in Ukraine to train Ukrainians, the special forces and CIA was also present training Ukrainians. My guess is the SF and CIA was training select individuals in unconventional and guerrilla techniques.
I also saw a fairly recent youtube video report that on the informal militia like groups present in the Ukraine that were not officially sanctioned by the Ukrainian government at the time. Quite honesty they looked like some of the militia groups you see in the US and what I also found interesting was they were packing what looked like AR15s with modern rail systems and optics.
With Javelins and Stringers these militia groups and other guerrilla fighters could really make a real headache for the Russians.
I just hope that some sort of settlement can be reached, but I doubt anything satisfactory to both sides can be agreed upon. Wars are easy to start but difficult to end.
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2 hours ago, Holman said:
I've been glued to the news all day. Today I've got huge respect for the Ukrainian people and for the Russians protesting Putin's aggression at home.
One minor little thing:
A couple of times I've seen pictures of Russian tanks with slat armor (maybe even former bed frames) welded to the TOP of the turret. It looks goofy, but I assume it's an attempt to defeat Javelins and other top-blast ATGMs.
Does it work? And will we have to endure the sight of it in CM?
The British have supplied the Ukrainians with NLAW systems. It has a different attack profile than Javelin from what I was able to see
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Just saw report Ukrainians have recaptured Kyiv airport.
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Those brave enough to be protesting in Moscow have real courage and fortitude given what the consequences will probably be if arrested.
I just saw an article about crowdfunding and other ways you can help support the Ukrainian military. Didn't want to post link as I don't know if it would be ok to do so.
It was on Quartz-How to donate to the Ukrainian Army.
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47 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:
The PLA has been wargaming that invasion for like 70 years now. I am pretty sure they have figured out how to make it work, if the cost/benefit analysis works out. The capabilities of the PLA on air, sea and land are greater on paper, granted, than the Russian army, that has more "hands on experience". I would say that the US/ANZAC, and Japan capabilities are also "on paper" never actually tested.
I said before that history isn't going in the right direction. All reactions to Russia's war of aggression indicate that the Chinese leadership was well informed of what was going to happen, and had plenty of time to prepare to keep a "straight" face.
Paraphrasing a certain British politician: Russia must fail, and must be seen to fail. Otherwise, it will be just "might is right", and just that.
I don't put much faith in wargames as indication of how the real thing will play out. Before the 1991 Gulf War it was estimated we would suffer 10s of thousands of casualties based on wargames. Former Def Secretary Gates mentioned the extensive wargaming that predicted outcomes and said its unreliable.
We're talking about an amphibious invasion from a nation that has little practical combat experience, let alone amphibious invasion experience. The would be tasked with not only carrying out one of the most difficult military operations-an amphibious invasion, but would also have to gain and maintain complete air and naval dominance over s sustained period. That's a big ask of a force with no practical experience.
On the other hand the defending force only have to delay and disrupt. That's a easier task.
Once ashore they will have to be able to resupply a large force. The terrain of Taiwan heavily favors the defenders and the island was already heavily fortified and Taiwan has undoubtedly enhanced what was already there.
The huge urban areas would be a massive proposition to take and while on paper the Chinese Army dwarfs Taiwan, there is only so much China can deploy and actually keep supplied to Taiwan.
Taiwan would have the advantage of being the defender in favorable conditions and have the advantage of interior line of communications. They also have an ample stash of sophisticated portable weapons.
Invading Taiwan also carries huge political risks internal and external for any Chinese leader who launches an invasion.
In any event there is no indication China is mobilizing for an invasion of Taiwan and Taiwan has put its military on high alert so the element of surprise in not present.
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14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:
I read a news report that Russian entities have already been setting up methods to avoid or minimize any pain from threatened (or should I say now that Russia has invaded Ukrainian) sanctions. They have been quietly converting cash in their reserves to bitcoin type purchases so they don’t have to depend on any international financing.
That would be perfect for the US. Inspite of its reputation for being anonymous, transactions on the blockchain can be tracked.
Perfect target for US Cyber Operations.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I just watched a video about locals in Belarusia about their impressions of Russian troops recently on exercises there on the SE border.
”They drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”.
nuf said.