db_zero
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Posts posted by db_zero
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Ukraine may become the prize not worth taking if it becomes irradiated.
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There is a suggestion that A-10s be transferred to Ukraine. Could be done in a few days. Training of pilots to use it could be done in a short time, but what exactly that means is open to interpretation. The A-10 was designed to operate from austere locations.
Interesting suggestion but I doubt how practical it would be. On the other hand if volunteers who already have experience with the A-10 could be found then it could be a valuable addition. I just don't know how the sight of American A-10s operation in the Ukraine would be interpenetrated by Russia - even though on the ground they are suffering greatly from Western supplied weapons.
Apparently Russia has requested a list of American/western arms that will not be sent to Ukraine.
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10 minutes ago, sburke said:
The only chronic condition I can think of is SVR or generals taking him out before he takes them out.
We don’t know. He is an absolute ruler who is bent on retaining power and status. It’s not like a democracy where information is generally open.
He could have some condition that was detected and it’s easy to see why someone in his position would want to keep that a secret.
I was diagnosed with a chronic condition-fortunately not fatal but believe me it will change your outlook on life, behavior and other aspects of life.
It will also be explained that should it be necessary to get treatment or medication how it will change not only physical condition but also mental and psychological health.
The mention of many fimilar with Putin saying something seems off about him and his cavalier nuclear saber rattling may be more than just someone being power drunk.
I’ve seen people who were materialistic and told they had only a short time to live. They just sold everything and when on a wild binge knowing it was the last hurrah.
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This has been percolating in the back of my mind for a while. What if Putin has some sort of chronic condition? Could explain his fear of catching Covid and isolation.
If he knows the clock is ticking then we’re dealing with a tricky situation.
Also if he is taking medication to control a chronic condition that can change his mental state and decision making.
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12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The time to have done something more forceful was in 2014 when Russian officially wasn't doing anything in Ukraine (a lie, of course). The problem was in the US were also struggling with Afghanistan and ISIS. There was no public support for putting military forces directly into a conflict zone. Plus, Europe weaseled out of doing anything similar.
Now? The problem is that if we put forces in there that almost certainly means us going to war with Russia. That is a very, very dangerous thing and nobody in Europe, the US, or allied nations wants to have that happen.
The alternative is mostly what is going on now. Do everything we can, short of direct military engagement, to make sure that Ukraine defeats Russia. In the end we get a similar result (defeated, defanged Russia) but without risking WW3.
This is a crappy deal for Ukraine, but not as crappy as would be if Russia used nukes in western Ukraine. They have a stake in this too, which is why I so far have not seen Zelensky asking for NATO to directly intervene. And so far he has not been shy about asking for things, and he is getting almost all of them. Including fast track to EU member status.
Sooooo... I hear you and my heart agrees with you, but my mind says to let Ukraine do its thing with our help and we'll sort out things out when Russia's defeated.
Steve
There is debate as to whether promises were made to Gorbachev after the Berlin Wall fell that NATO would not expand East but it was an informal promise noting more.
When the Ukrainians gave up nukes and promises were made the West would defend Ukraine it was informal so far as I know.
Perhaps the lesson for all is if you want/expect America to keep to its word it will have to be debated in congress and the senate, then formally ratified .
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43 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:
Yes, with BOTH Russia and the USA signing an agreement to protect Ukraine from the aggression of a foreign invader. I assume that Russia feels since “Ukraine is historically and culturally part of Russia,” that they don’t qualify them as a “foreign invader.” Why the U.S. doesn’t “put boots on the ground” to satisfy it’s pledge is beyond me. I served the U.S. for more than thirty years in different capacities, and I must say that I’m disgusted that the U.S. Government has again shown that it cannot be trusted to keep it’s promises and commitments that it makes to defend others.
That should come as no surprise. The American public has a short attention span and never truly hold the government accountable in a truthful non-partisan way. There has been numerous articles about how both parties have enacted reckless economic policies that were promised to be self paying and of limited life, but the policies have not turned out to be self paying or of limited lifespan and nobody cares...
If Americans and their government can't keep promises to themselves, then how can one expect American to keep all the promises it makes to everyone else?
Ukraine is the hot topic for now. If and once it slows down and becomes a long drawn out insurgency you can bet the attention span will shrink and move on to the next hot topic.
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1 hour ago, riptides said:
Bosnia comes to mind. Will that change your stance?
No. Bosinia was a different situation and there wasn't the prospect of US/NATO air forces directly engaging Russian air power. Any sort of intervention would require US/NATO air power and the risk of engagement and escalation would be too great.
Any sort of humanitarian assistance that would have steps to prevent any sort of accidental or deliberate engagement is going to require Putin/Russia to agree to it, and I don't see that happening.
The US and West is firmly behind Ukraine under current conditions, but there are limits. Getting into a situation where direct confrontation and possible escalation to WW3 isn't something the public is willing to get behind.
If Kyev and other cities fall then we'll probably see years of insurgency supplied and supported by the West. The leaders have already been briefed of the possibility of a decade of continuing conflict and insurgency in Ukraine if the Russians prevail.
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Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.
One other possibility is Putin somehow gets deposed. Not likely, but if it did happen, then what would the Russians next move be? Withdraw or negotiated partition?
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The Ukrainian government announced any captured Russian equipment will not be required to be reported for tax purposes…
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36 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Thoughts on unofficial support for Allied Mercenary units operating in the Ukraine as an approach to avoid direct NATO confrontation ? I mean beyond the Ukrainian Foreign Legion being set up .
Perhaps an AVG like group for pilots might also be useful although getting hands on Russian aircraft and helicopters might be a problem. Might not be kosher if they flew western aircraft.
Buying more Turkish drones that Ukraine already used and having them operated by Allied mercenary volunteers with previous drone experience is also an idea.
You could also crowdspace the financing the purchase of the drones.
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Don’t know if any Western military still used or have any of these left, but the old LAW rocket would be ideal to give out to all the civilians or even regular soldiers.
Small, light highly portable it’s still highly effective against the lighter armored personnel carriers and modern IFVs. Better than a Molotov and it’s cheap. It’s relatively easy to use.
Against a modern tank it’s not effective in most cases, but in an urban environment where you could take shots from an elevated position and aim for the top areas especially the top rear engine compartment area, it would be effective. Its also capable of breaking the tracks of a modern AFV.
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The vice chair of the Senate intel committee-Marco Rubio on Twitter said what looks like the largest airborne assault of the war so far was launched against Kharkiv.
An unverified report mentions it’s likely expected to fall.
If this plays out does it shift momentum to the Russians?
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Seems there is a view in high level US intel and policymakers that the Russians will surround and lay siege to Ukrainian cities and then bombard the hell out of them.
We can’t provide air cover as that would cause WW3.
Perhaps more of the drones from Turkey can be provided to target Russian forces and the AIC could fly them in a discreet and plausible denial manner…
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A 40 mile long convoy is reported on the moved towards Kyiv.
Are they going to launch an assault or just siege Kyiv?
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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:
There's no distinction between weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons then. The TOS is just a big rocket launcher, but people hype it up to mythical levels.
Just today, I heard some hosts on a BBC podcast talk about Russia's "flamethrower weapon that can make everything within three kilometres catch fire".
The shelling already going on in urban areas is already causing outrage. Using a weapon that is an area weapon and has the potential to indiscriminately kill a lot of civilians in a particularly gruesome way is going to really outrage people. I'm not sure if hiding in a basement which would normally offer a good degree of protection from an artillery shell or missile would offer protection from a weapon that has significant heat and over pressure effects in addition to the large blast.
I know a lot of people are taking shelter in the subway system. If batteries of TOS1s were used on the subway entrances I'm not sure if the subways would offer a high degree of protection. If not and hundreds or thousands die because the air was sucked out of their lungs you're going to see some real international outrage.
If I'm not mistaken flamethrowers have been banned as are cluster bombs-although I don't think molotov cocktails which can incinerate people are not banned.
I just saw an article-Ukraine has made a complaint that Russia used a “vacuum bomb” that is banned. Don’t know if they were referring to thecTOS1 or something else.
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Aside from increased defense spending, I think the whole issue of BMD gets re-visited after all this Russian nuclear sabre-rattling.
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36 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
Why do people keep referring to this rocket launcher as some kind of nuke? The videos I've seen of it firing show it firing a barrage of rockets, yes... but nothing like a nuclear weapon. Nothing that will level a city in one go.
In some circles weapons like this could be considered something of a WMD.
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12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
I am with Aragorn on this. Lots of success so far, but Putin is now throwing in reserves. He can't afford to lose. I'm worried.
I sure hope those ATGMs and stingers get there in time. With the mud, if they can destroy vehicles from a distance to block roads, would sure slow things down. and also could savage any supply columns following along through thin advance corridors.
Hopefully the advance in the far NW will stumble across the Polish border and bring NATO more into the fight. yeah, sounds crazy but I want NATO to move into western Ukraine.
Just how good are these reserves? Before the war there were those who mentioned how much better the Russian Army was after years of reform.
Thats not looking like the case.
If the reserves being brought up are poor quality and poorly motivated, they will just be cannon fodder and the disaster just got worse for Putin.
I do agree Putin has to continue to try and make something of this.
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4 minutes ago, womble said:
Seems like a pretty facile treatment of the subject, with little actual additional insight into the reality of Ukraine. Though in some ways, it emphasises the disparity between the speed of advance of Russia in Ukraine (at a 24 hour average of 1mph, they should be way past Kharkiv by now...) and that of an actual competent army that (while coming close to it) never actually ran out of supply, rather than supply issues causing wholesale abandonment of significant assets.
There are significant differences. The US had complete air dominance. From what I've heard Russia has not secured compete air dominance.
The US didn't face a opposing force that was amply equipped or supplied with sophisticated anti-tank, anti-air and tactical radios.
The Russian logistical tail is going to be coming under increasing attacks and will need significant protection.
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I think Russia shot its wad and its game over for Putin. There are questions as to whether he is slightly or completely unhinged. Failure may signal the loss of his wealth, power and perhaps his life. So what now?
1. Figuring it the end of his wealth, power and him he decides to take everybody down with him and orders a nuclear strike. If it ever came down to this, hopefully those he would need to cooperate will not comply.
2. Use chemical weapons and use the threat of nuclear weapons to keep NATO at bay. The irregular and civilians defending are not prepared or trained to deal with this and I don't know how prepared the reserves are. The regular army is probably the best prepared to deal with this. Like nukes, if it came down to this I hope the Russian military doesn't comply.
3. Use the TOS1s and level cities. The outcry will be massive and once again Putin could use the threat of nukes as a deterrent to NATO from responding.
Other than that I don't see a way out. A continued ground assault as it stands doesn't seem like it has a high chance of success. Its been a couple of days since NATO countries announced large arms shipments and they must be starting to arrive and be distributed. The supply lines of the Russians are extremely vulnerable. Only 1/3 of the original invasion force was combat troops and its obviously been diffused by losses, desertions and simply the fact the deeper they advanced and more area they captured means even under the best of circumstance - which obviously isn't the case their forces would become diffused.
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2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
Agreed. In isolation Russia would have the stronger position. But with western resupply who can say? It changes the game. I think its even bigger than a few missiles and body armor though. I mean if Poland is willing to revive the Ukrainian Air Force, what's the limit? Will some Bradleys fall off a truck next? It seems to me that the only limits are the west's ability to deliver systems and Ukraine's ability to get trained crews behind new toys.
If the US and its allies couldn't subdue Iraq with nearly 300,000 troops which arguably were better trained, equipped and more efficient than the 190,000 Russian troops which have performed poorly to date in Ukraine which is roughly the size and more populated that Iraq, then I see little if no way the Russian can pull the rabbit out of the hat.
and the Ukranians will be in possession of vast amounts of far more sophisticated man portable anti-air and anti-take assets which tilts the favor even more in the Ukranians favor.
It may come down to the sanity of Putin and how desperate and far he is willing to go...
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21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
No I think your observations are fair. This is one of the worse days for the Ukrainians. Several Russian spear heads are in danger of linking up and consolidating their gains. A landing in Odessa also brings the war to western Ukraine, which has mostly been untrammeled. It suggests that the Russians are (slowly) learning their lessons and moving more slowly but more surely.
That being said, I think much of the gains and the threatened regions may look worse than they actually are. I dont think, for example, that losing the north eastern border would really change the operational picture. If those roads had been valuable to Russia they would have been taken day one. AFAIK no major cities exist there. And as long as Ukrainian troops arn't pocketed I dont think the risk is very high. More threatening is the advanced on Mariupol. That city will be of considerable prestige value, and will certainly factor into negotiations regardless of which side controls it. Moreover if a southern linkup is achieved, the southern arm of the offensive is reduced from three operational directions (and again the mind boggles at the decision making process there) to two, with the Odessa axis being the most important. But well see. Cities seem to be hard for Russia so its not going to be an easy fight.
Looks like its a race between the Russians who are learning their lessons and Ukranians fighting for their homeland and waiting to receive more anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems from the West.
The Russians could learn from their lessons and be a more efficient fighting force, but if the Ukranians are in possession of the hundreds of stingers, Javelins, Panzerfausts, NLAWS, helmets, body armor and tactical radios being sent from the West then the Russian spearheads as well as the soft logistical tail that supports it will be extremely vulnerable.
IMO-the Russian wad is already shot.
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18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
yeah, that sounds too good to be true, so it'd be nice to somehow verify this. But I guess if I were in a mutiny I might not video it. Unlike certain folks I've seen, maybe these soliders wouldn't commit treason and then paste it all over facebook.
Back in the day I would agree with this, but these days people, especially the younger generation post stuff on social media that in the past would be unthinkable.
The internet and social media is an intelligence goldmine. Back in the day millions/billions was spend gathering HUMINT.
Today you just scan the internet and social media.
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16 minutes ago, keas66 said:
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Some are saying that nuke plants have improved safety features since Chernobyl so the danger is overblown.
I know nothing about this. Maybe someone on here who does can explain if above is true or not.