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Bulletpoint

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Posts posted by Bulletpoint

  1. 14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    They tend to conserve older units for crucial moments, but it is wrong to assume most of Storm-Z are convicts, "500-s" or narcomans. There are plenty of actual volunteers there and nowadays regular units are also thrown into assaults as well, when needed. Generally, Russian army now perform task that were reserved for Wagner or LDPR cannon fodder before. Which is not necessarly good sign.

     

    [Ninja'ed by Grigb.]

    Alright, but I think the main point still stands: What we see as useless foolish and wasteful assaults are seen by the Russians as reconnaisance in force.

  2. 2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

    Re. inhumanity of that strategy - note it bears a strong resemblance to how Wagner would advance its convict units and everybody thought this was only possible because nobody cared about the convicts. Now ordinary Russian military units are using the same strategy, with the same insane risks to the individual infantrymen. 

    As I understand it, they use convicts and penal battalions for the constant meat assaults, but the actual (more or less) professional soldiers are kept in reserve for exploiting breakthroughs when a weak point is found.

  3. 6 hours ago, Kraft said:

    Also while Im at it, if translations dont work the fighter who got shot by the Machine Gunner (in the head?) Survived but was badly wounded.

    Good if he survived. I must say I thought he was killed instantly from the way he dropped.

    Also, that group was either very lucky that three kamikaze drone strikes caused so little damage, or they had more casualties off-camera than the video admits.

  4. 7 hours ago, Zeleban said:

     

    Offensive? Through what means? Ukraine now receives only about 10% of the aid it received last year. And that help turned out to be insufficient for the offensive. Everyone is well aware of this, especially the generals. Currently, the front line is held only by FPV. And as we see near Avdeevka, as soon as the weather does not allow the effective use of FPV, the Russians manage to break through the front.

    I'm not saying the offensive will be successful, only that I think an offensive will be ordered.

  5. 3 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

    If the set of new ideas/technologies required to break the stalemate is not there, adopting a defensive strategy is better than attacking just for the sake of initiative. Better retreat to the Hindenburg Line than remake of the Somme.

    I completely agree, but I think this was essentially what got Zeluzhny fired.

    Now, with the new general, I expect to see a new and more brutal offensive by Ukraine in the spring. And this time, they won't call it off even when the casualties really start to mount.

  6. 2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Clearly he is not…so then what was the point of the Carlson thing…to speak to his own people?  “Hey look the American comes to me for history lesson”?  Whatever it was it sure as hell did not work over here.  Let the memes begin.

    I'm just saying there might not have been this whole clever PR plan behind it. Just that Putin believes in his own message and he wants to tell that message.

  7. 9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    You know we North Americans are often told that "we don't get Russia", or most of Europe for that matter.  What is clear from this fiasco is that cluelessness cuts both ways.  So the best PR guys Putin had all settled on the idea that the best way to shift US public sentiment was a detailed history lesson on Eastern (fine, Central) Europe?  Oh ya, all of our modern culture speaks to our deep reverence for European history minutia, claims and counter claims.

    This argument seems to hinge on Putin being a Western style politician who does what his PR guys tell him what to do.

  8. 1 hour ago, Carolus said:

    Heavy drone for medical transport.

    Is this the beginning of the new air-mobile (drone mobile?) infantry?

    Drone Dragoons.  Drongoons.

     

    And if it gets shot down on the way, it will double as a coffin.

    A big part of why drones are so successful is that they are so small that they are almost impossible to spot and hit at range. This one, not so much.

  9. 37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    For sure Ukraine's front could collapse and give Russia a big win.  However, history doesn't favor this theory becoming reality. 

    Ukraine has been in this situation MANY times (Bakhmut for one) and Russia has been unable to close the escape routes fast enough to trap large numbers of Ukrainians.  Hell, Russia wasn't able to do this in Debaltseve in 2015!  The only time they got a significant number of prisoners was Mariupol and that was because the defenders chose to fight in place rather than retreat when they had the chance.  And we know how that turned out... it cost Russia loads more casualties to get to the end of that battle.

    Steve

    The pincers of the pocket are now approximately 5 Km apart. How close would they need to get before you would consider the pocket in real danger of encirclement? Not arguing here, just curious.

  10. 10 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

    I am not seeing that contradiction actually. Zaluzny in his Economist interview stated the need for more troops, precisely speaking he identified as one of his 5 priorities creation of the ability to train and manage new troops. Nowhere did he contrast that with Zelensky's policy or declared his opposition to some idea of Zelenski.  Similarly Zelensky has never publicly declared he does not want to extend conscription, with which Zaluzny's ideas could be contrasted. As far as I see, the entire perception that Zelenski and Zaluzny are at loggerheads re conscription comes from the commentariat.

    It would be different if Zaluzny said something which openly crititcised Zelenski's policy. But I see a different story - each time Zaluzny says pretty much anything, we hear a murmur of commentary: He is criticising Zelenski, he is against Zelenski. This could be Russian dezinformatsia for all we know.

    I think the disagreement between them began when the Ukrainian offensive stalled and casualties were piling up. The politician Zelensky likely wanted to continue the offensive, but the military man Zaluzny wanted to call it off. Because he could see that it wouldn't break through, and he didn't want to reinforce failure and sacrifice many troops for basically nothing.

    Then later, Zaluzny gave an interview where he said :

    “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

    This went against the message of Zelensky who had kept upbeat and positive that Ukraine could do it. And he has to. Zelensky knows that western backers won't keep funding the war if they start to see it as unwinnable.

    Before that interview, we were still arguing here on the forum about whether or not Ukraine's offensive had failed or not. I also remember prominent youtubers claiming that the offensive "had not yet culminated" even even though no real progresss had been made for two weeks.

    But after the Zaluzny interview, the narrative changed overnight and most people began openly saying that the offensive had failed.

  11. 2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    In order for that to happen, the UA would need to collapse in that area.  The RA has tried it, but been destroyed every time.  Why?  My guess is a combination of C4ISR and strike - if that fails, the UA has much larger problems than this one small town.

    Maybe I'm fixating too much on the two roads. It might be that they can bring in supplies across the fields, too. And withdraw that way also, if need be.

  12. 19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    And speaking of Ukrainian success.  If those numbers flying around are even halfway correct, the RA has lost around an entire Bde - maybe up to crippling a Div - on this one little (and operationally insignificant) town over the last 3 months.

    The UA could pull out right now and this is a major win.

    Hopefully this major win won't end with a major loss if a similar number of Ukrainians end up encircled and destroyed.

  13. Despite massive casualties, the Russians keep inching closer to encircling Avdiivka. They are now less than 1 km away from the main road into the city.

    To my eyes, the situation doesn't look good. Not sure how the Ukrainians can keep supplying their positions in the fields east of Avdiivka even now.

    Time to pull back, or am I overlooking something important here? Apart from the huge Russian losses.

    image.png.b99fff89bf75f76453a82849280b8196.png

  14. 7 hours ago, Carolus said:

    That was exactly what I wondered after seeing recent clips of Ukrainian units from the front.

    Imagine you were a battalion commander and someone came up to and said:

    "You can have 1000 pieces of supply - either 152mm/155mm shells (no PGM) or 1000 FPV drones or a mix between these of your choice, just never more than 1000."

    Disregard the costs, imagine that it is a slider you can adjust in CM, and you already have both experienced artillery gunners and experienced drone teams. Just keep in mind that EW exists.

    Have we reached a point where the FPV drones would be more desirable than the shells?

    I think the only real advantage shells still have is that they have much longer range than the average small drone.

  15. 17 hours ago, Paper Tiger said:

    Fantasy would mean having SS formations with Tigers attacking Utah Beach on D-Day or a Carentan battle with King Tigers.

    Well, even if it had to be a fantasy scenario, I would still prefer it to be a historical fantasy scenario, such as Unternehmen Seelöwe.

    Always wondered how the Brits would have defended their island against a German invasion.

    Another interesting scenario is if the Soviets had not stopped and continued westwards.

    Or if the Germans had managed to press on to Moscow.

    17 hours ago, Paper Tiger said:

    I appreciate that the Bulge wasn't all knife fights and that there are plenty of open terrain missions but my own feeling is that the Germans had already lost the war at that point and that they're just there to delay the inevitable. That takes something away from the experience for me, knowing that nothing can really be won at that point and that the sacrifices just mean more people on all sides having to make the sacrifices for several more days at best.

    Yep, I feel the same. CMFB is as late in the war as I want to go.

  16. 6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

    Using "their" in a sentence like that has been around for decades, possibly over a century.  Its not some new development. And not exactly on topic either.

    I believe that until recently, it was only used when the gender was unknown ('someone forgot their phone on the table', 'each voter will have to make up their own mind about whom to vote for').

    In any case, yes, it's off topic, so let's move on.

  17. On 1/28/2024 at 8:42 PM, Vet 0369 said:

    In the Vietnam war, it was common practice to ensure that any Marine “in the field,” I.e. on patrol or on an operation, carried only their ID card and the “Geneva card” with them

    Were there any female marines in Vietnam? Since you're using gender neutral "their"..

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