BletchleyGeek
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Posts posted by BletchleyGeek
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1 hour ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:
In fact, right now, I happen to live in a country that the United States happen to be very "philic" with. That country has gotten away with launching a full blown surprise attack with multiple armies on American troops executing a UN mandate and suffered no more than some sanctions, breaking the precedent that a surprise attack on American forces is awarded with nukes. That country has attacked four countries yet has received surprisingly little condemnation globally. That country was even accused of genocide (by Western authorities) ... yet overall surprisingly little happened to it.
Okay, that explains a lot.
歡迎您加入我們的家庭!
It's a family that isn't afraid of throwing furniture at each other.
You have a good point re getting away with genocide. Historically, Nazi Germany got away with QUITE A LOT until it made the mistake of launching a war of aggression on a neighbor.
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8 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:
What's maybe strange is how the Donetsk and Luhansk separatists don't seem to participate much. Maybe they do but aren't achieving anything besides tying down Ukrainian forces?
The UKR Army had some serious fortifications there, but they were eventually forced out of them. Looks like a (for now) fighting withdrawal. The breakthrough towards Zhaporozhiy, Melitopol, along the Azov sea with the consequence of the likely encirclement of Mariupol will probably accelerate events there.
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As some seem to so curious about how things look from the RUS side of the fence... here's some footage filmed on the Donetsk front, yesterday, by a Catalan TV crew. It looks like the relevant Russian authorities are very carefully vetting who gets where to see what
Contrast the highly curated experience of these journalists with the approach from the information strategy of the UKR side, where we're pretty much left to drink from the firehose. Al-Jazeera has some pieces in similar style.
The video is in Catalan, obviously, here are the main takeaways:
- Russian ministry of propaganda leads journalists in a convoy to a zone they have recently "liberated".
- They are taken to the site where an UKR truck was hit, with two UKR KIAs. Note that it is likely those persons have been there lying for some time.
- Then they visit a village, and interview a family hiding in their basement. They didn't have the means to leave their house as most of their neighbours and have spent 3 days hunkering down. Note that there's no men of arms bearing age in sight, only women and children.
- As the journos prepare to come back, a mortar barrage pins down everyone. On the way back, the Catalan journos give a lift to some officials of the fresh new Russian republics whose land rover got hit by the mortar barrage and destroyed.
How informative is all that about how well or badly is this war of aggression going? What it confirms to me is that UKR has very little chance to hold out in the East, they know it, and they are doing a fighting withdrawal, taking casualties and trading space for time. Besides the families of the servicemen killed on both sides, the ones who suffer are the people who gets caught in the middle. Any peace that comes out of this will probably mean significant changes in the borders of Ukraine. Is that victory? Probably whatever means conserving independence is.
The best source of information on UKR losses is... Wikipedia. UKR look serious given the more limited size of their force. The statistical outlier is that the ratio of prisoners to KIA/WIA reported sound to me like someone is counting every dead and wounded as a POW.
Some of the takes on the conflict, and how UKR "provoked" Russia by "stealing" gas, just check out the comprehensive article on Wikipedia (we'll see there's been some disputes about gas since the breaking apart of the Soviet Union)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia–Ukraine_gas_dispute
and the bits of the most recent dispute
QuoteJune 2014 gas supplies to Ukraine cut off[edit]
In an attempt at energy independence, Naftogaz signed a pipeline access deal with Slovakia's Eustream on 28 April 2014. Eustream and its Ukrainian counterpart Ukrtransgaz, owned by Naftogaz, agreed to allow Ukraine to use a never used (but aging, at 20 years old) pipeline on Slovakia's eastern border with Uzhhorod in western Ukraine. The deal would provide Ukraine with 3 billion cubic meters of natural gas beginning in autumn of 2014 with the aim of increasing that amount to 10 billion cubic meters in 2015.[146]
On 1 April 2014 Gazprom cancelled Ukraine's natural gas discount as agreed in the 17 December 2013 Ukrainian–Russian action plan because its debt to the company had risen to $1.7 billion since 2013.[148][149] Later that month the price "automatically" jumped to $485 per 1,000 cubic meters because the Russian government annulled an export-duty exemption for Gazprom in place since the 2010 Kharkiv Pact (this agreement was denounced by Russia on 31 March 2014[150]).[151][152] On 16 June 2014 Gazprom stated that Ukraine's debt to the company was $4.5 billion.[151] On 30 May 2014 Ukraine paid $786 million to Gazprom.[153]
After intermediary (that had started in May 2014[151]) trilateral talks between EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger, Ukraine and Russia failed on 15 June 2014 the latter halted (after a deadline of 10 a.m. Moscow time passed without it receiving payment[151]) its natural gas supplies to Ukraine the next day.[148] Unilaterally Gazprom decided that Ukraine had to pay upfront for its natural gas.[154] The company assured that its supplies to other European countries would continue.[154] Ukraine vowed to "provide reliable supply of gas to consumers in Ukraine and we will provide reliable transit to the European Union”.[151] At the time about 15 percent of European Union's demand depended on Russian natural gas piped through Ukraine.[151]
After trilateral months of talks between the European Union, Ukraine and Russia a deal was reached on 30 October 2014 in which Ukraine agreed to pay (in advance) $378 per 1,000 cubic metres to the end of 2014, and $365 in the first quarter (ending on 31 March) of 2015.[155] Of its debts to Gazprom Ukraine agreed to pay of $1.45bn immediately, and $1.65bn by the end of 2014.[155] It was agreed that the European Union will be acting as guarantor for Ukraine's gas purchases from Russia and would help to meet outstanding debts (using funds from existing accords with the European Union and IMF).[155] The total package was worth $4.6bn.[155] According to European Union officials the deal secured that there would be no natural gas supply disruptions in other European countries.[155]
November 2015 gas supplies stop[edit]
On 25 November 2015 Gazprom halted its exports of Russian natural gas to Ukraine.[156] According to the Ukrainian government they had stopped buying from Gazprom because Ukraine could buy natural gas cheaper from other suppliers.[156] According to Gazprom it had halted deliveries because Ukraine had not paid them for the next delivery.[156] Since then, Ukraine has been able to fulfil its gas supply needs solely from European Union states. In 2018 the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce ordered that Ukraine's Naftogaz should import 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia, as required under its 2009 contract with Russia's Gazprom.[157] However, take-or-pay claims by Gazprom for 2009–2014 untaken gas volumes were rejected. On 28 February 2018, the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce ordered that Gazprom pay Naftogaz for failing to ship certain amounts of gas through Ukraine gas transmission system. The net result of all claims was that Gazprom was ordered to pay Naftogaz $2.56 bln.[158] Gazprom disputed this award and fought it off in several European courts where Naftogaz was trying to enforce the award. In the end, a settlement of principle was reached in Berlin on 20 December 2019[159] as part of wider trilateral talks between Gazprom, Ukraine and the European Commission on Russian gas transit through Ukraine.
So much for "stealing" sh*t, to be honest.
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Just now, danfrodo said:
I just read that Putin fired his military chief of staff, name Gerasimov. Anyone else heard this?
I think that's fake - there was a video of a meeting of Putin with the War Minister and the Chieff of Staff within the same timeline as the alleged dismissal.
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I am double checking this too, however in my case I had a list of things to look for and their importance before the fighting started. What that means is I'm comparing what is actually happening to what we (myself and someone else, primarily) predicted would happen. I've done this for Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 and seen how they lined up. I've also compared each day to the other. Confirmation bias, in my case, is that what's happening now is pretty much as expected. If the original conclusions were reasonably correct, then I have a pretty good idea of where this is headed.
Hi Steve! I was wondering how long it would take to smoke you out and have you post here.
What are your thoughts on the equipment of the Russian Armed Forces we have seen so far? Do you think they're hiding the "cutting edge" stuff for yet another "special operation"? Do you think that you guys overestimated the capabilities of Russian industry to produce state-of-the-art equipment (and for the Russian armed forces to integrate it into its units)? There are many opinions out there (and I guess quite a bit of disinformation) that suggest that there's no real strategic echelon for the Russian Federation to support high-intensity combat operations beyond 10 days.
To me, this looks a bit like the move AH did in 1938 on Czechoslovakia, a gamble based on the assumption the other side will fold before having to put the cards on the table... There's some serious research that suggests the Wehrmacht was "lucky" not to have to engage with the Czechoslovak army.
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34 minutes ago, John Kettler said:
That was a most valuable and insightful article on Russian logistics> Never saw anything like it during my 11+ years as a Soviet Threat Analyst. Back then, we were trying desperately to find ways to kill--quickly and in great numbers--Soviet and Warsaw Pact tanks, though I'm sure the US Air Force would've been hitting such key targets as critical bridges. Back then, we also has no counter to the foe's HAS's, yet our HAS's (TAB-V) were killable by it. They also had highly capable runway killing BETAB dibber bombs and a robust modular rapid runway repair setup. Worked on the B-1B CCWG (Conventional Capabilities Working Group) at Rockwell, and we were investigating things like attacks on the railroad gauge switchover points, certain bridges, and I made the discovery that the railroad network for one WP country was basically functionally the same as the electrified rail or overhead wire systems in the US. Knock out the power to the rails, and no more trains move! In turn, this led to targeting the power plants and related facilities providing the juice to run the railroads.
When I read the article it kind of sounded a bit archaic - railroads? like in the time of Von Moltke the Elder? But yes, if you want to move great volumes of stuff and fast... you use railroads (or ships).
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I am pretty sure that getting to a crisis point has been part of the game plan (as a contingency or a milestone I don't know) since the civil war in Syria started, if not from the day that Bill Clinton (and George Bush later) laughed off the question put forward by Putin to join NATO.
Following up the discussions on logistics, saw a video of some Russian soldiers helping themselves to the shelves of a supermarket in Melitopol, and I remembered this very good article I read back in Xmas
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Then suddenly Putin wakes up one morning and says to himself, “hell let’s see if all out war will work”…? Does not add up.
I am pretty sure that didn't happen overnight, man. On the contrary all those string of successes as you say have made him convinced they can get away with this.
FWIW looks like a Russian forward detachment is trying to make a run for Kiev city centre from the West. Intense images of combat, which you can also pick up on Google Maps with indications of "very slow traffic".
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6 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:
But I havn't seen any T-90s, BMP-3s, or any of the new stuff lost or living. Not even a lost T-14
Or their numbers, availability, technology readiness level etc. have been greatly exaggerated.
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9 minutes ago, akd said:
Ukrainian forces claim to have downed an Il-76 at Vasilkova:
Just read that, looks like they are trying a night time air drop?
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I found this map useful. Reading lots of rumours about Russian forces in the NE running low on supply and are foraging fuel and food.
Difficult to make a guess, but it seems to me the Russian Armed Forces plan was counting on the UKR army to fall apart very quickly. Especially the NE seems to be they are much slower than planned. Looks like a double envelopment on Kiev became a single armed thrust.
There are also reports that the 76th Airborne Division was earmarked to fly into Hostomel but landed instead in Gomel (right at the intersection of the borders between RUS, UKR and BEL).
The UKR govt is doing the right thing by having a third party - Israel, country well known for its long held sympathy for all things Nazi - to broker a cease fire. But the rhethoric from the RUS govt doesn't make very optimistic tbh. Also, threatening Finland and Sweden... well, I guess we can all make our own minds about it.
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10 minutes ago, HUSKER2142 said:
honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers! Young guys who could live a long life and do so much good in life, and not die for the sake of crazy ideas.
Nothing to rejoice about other than seeing Russian citizens taking a political stance on the streets.
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9 minutes ago, db_zero said:
In any event there is no indication China is mobilizing for an invasion of Taiwan and Taiwan has put its military on high alert so the element of surprise in not present.
I agree that it's not something that will be happening tomorrow, and it would not be politically cheap.
Good point re: 1st Gulf War. Same applies to the PLA: we may well be overestimating the difficulty of that operation. Okinawa was a difficult campaign, and the attacker came on top eventually as well with a huge human and political cost...
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23 minutes ago, db_zero said:
For some reason I think that while China talks tough on China, it's just talk. Its also very risky. Amphibious operations are the most difficult to pull off. Taiwan only has a few beaches suitable for sea invasion and they are atrocious terrain for any invader. It heavily favors the defender.
Any invasion would require serious preparation and as already demonstrated by events in Ukraine and serious preparation will be detected.
The PLA has been wargaming that invasion for like 70 years now. I am pretty sure they have figured out how to make it work, if the cost/benefit analysis works out. The capabilities of the PLA on air, sea and land are greater on paper, granted, than the Russian army, that has more "hands on experience". I would say that the US/ANZAC, and Japan capabilities are also "on paper" never actually tested.
I said before that history isn't going in the right direction. All reactions to Russia's war of aggression indicate that the Chinese leadership was well informed of what was going to happen, and had plenty of time to prepare to keep a "straight" face.
Paraphrasing a certain British politician: Russia must fail, and must be seen to fail. Otherwise, it will be just "might is right", and just that.
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7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Any other ideas?
The other "front" needs not be overlooked. Lots of diplomacy needed in SE Asia to for something like NATO.
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6 minutes ago, womble said:
The problem would be if China decided to get its aggressive ambitions under way in the South China Sea... that might divert enough resources to leave the Poles and the Balts unrelieved for a lonnng time.
I think the calculation is that the fate of Ukraine will be a warning for Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia. I wouldn't discard a move on Taiwan if the response to Russia's war of aggression turns out to be weak or ineffective.
I wouldn't be surprised either that Sweden and Finland ask to join NATO.
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A Twitter account in English thay I have found useful and informative
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46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
I have heard nine loud explosions since 5 o'clock
I don't know what to say other than "take care" and that history is definitely not going in the right direction.
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With the same parameters (1,130 m/s muzzle velocity, 2.5 height of starting location for the projectile), but with an elevation of about 0.37 degrees rather than 0, you get a ballistic trajectory which at about 800m reaches its zenith (at a height of about 5.25m) and hits the ground at about 2,000 meters. At such high speeds, a difference of arc minutes (like 20 arc minutes) is quite significant. But unless we're assuming a height differential of 3 meters between the point of departure of the projectile and the target, what you describe sounds to me like a quite "high and long" shot.
I can totally agree with the statement that it was and is standard procedure to have some "firing solutions" (e.g. gun elevations and ranges) pre-calculated. You don't want to be doing "line search" (which is the procedure I used to figure out the elevation that was the best fit for what you described in your first answer to my post) in combat conditions (tired, scared, under pressure). Definitely not good for clear thinking and problem solving.
Look, from my point of view there is Physics and there are... Unicorns. The former has behaved in the same way since probably a very short time after the Big Bang and hyperinflation ensued, and will probably go on until Boltzmann Brains are a thing. Certainly the relevant part of Physics - Newtonian mechanics - were an approximation of ballistics as good now, as it was in 1944, and as it will be in 2024 (unless the usual caveats apply, that is, the projectiles are really, really tiny, or go really, really fast). Unicorns are a most remarkable phenomenon, known under many names, like phlogiston, aether, mana, etc. It is well known as well that their properties change across time and space depending on the observer.
I think Physics works, probably because in the Engineering School I got brainwashed or something.
I also think that CMx2 is a reasonable physics simulator for ballistic trajectories and the misnomer that are "external ballistics".
Judging from your later posts, I think we're in agreement re: Physics. I was wondering after reading the first one.
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With this handy trajectory calculator
https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/trajectory-projectile-motion
one can make their own mind regarding point-blank ranges for World War 2 guns and projectiles. For the German Panzergranate 40, APCR, I get from Google a muzzle velocity of 1,130 m/s. Making a guesstimate that the gun height would be like 2.5 meters, I would say that "point blank range" (for a target in hull down like Cpt. Millers' Abrams is and a firer aiming straight for the mouth of the gun barrel) is about 200 meters, at that distance the height decay of the projectile is about 30 cms (218 yards and 1 foot for the US friends).
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Just for the benefit of some readers, "point blank range" means "range with a flat trajectory". That is, the maximum range at which the projectile roughly flies along a straight line towards the target before the forces of gravity and friction with the atmosphere overcome linear acceleration and the trajectory becomes curved. Or in other words, the maximum range at which the gunner can set the gun elevation to zero degrees and be quite certain the shot won't be short. The shot can still miss for other reasons, obviously.
As an ESL person who wasn't educated in the terminology I need to remind myself of this all the time when I read these discussions.
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@Kicknuts chances are that the automatic DPI scaling compatibility support is the cause of your troubles (after looking at your specs they are similar to mine and I had something very similar to you).
My advice is that you download one of the demos from BFC and follow @Schrullenhaft directions to see what works.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
A link to the data of the 2019 election from Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election
The only region where the "pro-Russian" part called "Opposition Party - For Life" got over 50% votes was the northern Donetsk region. Generally speaking, turnout is like 10-15% lower than in most EU countries.