LUCASWILLEN05

What thoughts do we have on rating the Russian and Ukranian armies. The Ukraian military smetimes appears a little lacklustre, perhaps because of the pre war issues. Training might be reasonable enough so Regular might make sense but we might consider heir leadership ratings to be on the low side and morale may well be a problem. By 2017 these issues may be exacerbatd by further battlefield setbacks. The Russian army seems to be quite professional although not up to NATO standards. It performed well in Georgia and some elemenys may be getting combat eperience in the current fighting, whatever the Kremlin says. Thee 2008 reforms likely will have some considerable effect on professionalism.

I may well be that the A10 is nearing he end of its' useful life but it may still be in service in 2017 http://www.wired.com/2014/12/a10-warthog-isis/ However, modern SAM capabilities would likely make it vulnerable on the battlefields of Ukraine. However there are apparently serious issues with the F-35. It would be good if BF included both types of aircraft in a future module.

Nobody is stopping you from pausing the game at any time to examine the situation and issueing new orders. It is not cheating. You just have to decide when the decision points are if you are playing in real time. Remember you are acting as a combat team or battalion commander in the larger games. I find i helpful to zoom out to get a better overview of the overall situation.at least sometimes. My advice would be to start on the easier difficulty levels at first to gain experience with the game. If you have not played CM at all before then start with he smaller actions as well whle you learn ther tacics. Maybe play a few platon or company size games first while you figure out the tactics, then start gaming the bigger battles, eventually graduating o the most realistic "Iron" level.

In fact Western dithering can be highly dangerous, something that we should have learned from the 130s. The danger is ha Putin thinks he can get away with an actin he really should not take. Perhaps in the CMBS scenario his view was that NATO would not react to his invasion of Ukraine even though the country was moving quickly towards membership of the alliance. Pehaps, in this scenario, Putin felt he could win a quick war (another Georgia 2008) before NATO reacted. However, that turned out to be a grave miscalculatiion resulting in the war the game depicts. If, in the real world Putin sees a firm and robust Western policy on Ukraine and on Russia in general he will better understad where the line is. Whatever else he may be Putin is no fool as long as he understands where the line is.

I think that if Russia were in a desperate military situation (the 2017 invasion goes really badly) with a very significant military defeat chemical weapons might be employed rather than tactical or stratefgc nukes. For exampe the "4th generation Novichok type http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent If this happened NATO might suffer quite significant military casualties but civillian losses wuld be catastrophic. Under these conditions NATO War Aims might well alter from defending Ukraine to regime change in Moscow and destroying Russian military capability. In these circumstances a political decision on "March on Moscow" might well be the result. From the Ukramian border to Moscow it is 483 kilometes (300 miles) At some point (assuming some patroiotic Russian general does not overthrow Putin in a coup and ends the war with NATO on terms) nuclear weapons might very well be used at some point. Obviously our conventional war scenario would end at this point, mosrt likely along with the rest of civilization

In terms of the way he does things Putin may be closer to Bismarck. I am thinking of the Ems Telegram provoking the Franco Prussian War and the way Putin provoked Georgia into war in 2008 using seperatists. In Ukraine it may be he is using similar methods. Regarding the comparison of the Versailles Treaty with the breakup of the Soviet Union. Russan Nationalists would be very unhappy with that and the loss of Russia's role as a Great Power,.This might explain the goals of the Eurasian Union project There are of course serious issues with Putin's plans explaining why it might not work and why i might result in conflicts between Russia and her neighbours as we are seeing in Ukraine http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/feb/18/brief-primer-vladimir-putin-eurasian-union-trade https://euobserver.com/economic/127081 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142745/nate-schenkkan/eurasian-disunion This could be seen as Russia trying (and failing) to come to terms with the loss of Superpower status. Russia of course can still be an important Europan and imndeed a World power but must learn to cut her cloth according to her means and operate according to international norms. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/120778/eurasian-economic-union-putins-geopolitical-project-already-failing

A couple of interesting articles analysing the military issues http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31164822 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31146595 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27308526

The fact that Kharkov is on the shortest route to Kiev is why the Russian Army would want to capture the city when they go to war in June 2017. And, because of the strategic, economic and historical importance of the city NATO and Ukranian commanders would want to recapture the city later in the war. Hence heavy fighting and significant battles are likely to occur in the Kharkov area in the war depicted in the game.

Actually my vew is that, while Putin sometimes might be viewed as acting like Hitler (Crimea = Rhineland/Austria/Czeecholslovakia) I think the Bismarck compasrison is thr more accurate one/ Bismarck was ot above provoking wars and manipulating situations (1864 Schleswig Holstein, 1866 Austria -Prussia, 1870 Franco Prussian) Putin's record so far includes 2nd Chechen War. Georgia 2008 and now Ukraine starting with his action in Crimea. Putin seems to be a far more shrewd and canny opertor than Hitler ever was. In that respect I would see him as far more comparable to Bismarck For now I am inclined to agree with you that this is most likely going to remain a proxy war but there is always the chance something gets out of hand in a very tense international situation if one or both sides were to miscalculate and over reacts. In those circumstances the esults could indeed be disasterous for all concerned and even those not directly involved if it turned nuclear.

I don't see Putin as being a reckless gambler in that way. A calculating risk taker may be closer to the mark. However a calculated risk could gbecome a reckless gamble very easily and that is how I see the 2017 war scenario starting.

That is certainly one way of viewing Putn? Is he a new Hitler? Possibly he could become one. Putiin, like Hitler takes risks. On he other hand Putin may be more like Otto von Bismarck who can also be seen as an aggressive risk taker but, unlike Hitler, we remeember /Bismarck as a great European international statesman But you are quite corect there is great potential for miscalculation on btgh sides. Steve compare t6he situation to that pre 1914

Kharkov is a key city on a major (and direct) route to Kiev. A battle for the city woukld certainly be likely given its' strategic and historical importance. Don't forget the city had the unfortunate distinction of being the scene of four magor battles of WW2 Not all th fighting would take place within the city itself. I would expect magor fighting nearby as the Russians envelop the city and combat in the suburbs would certainly occur. The Russians would want to control the city as it controls the road network the Russians would need to supply the push towards Kiev and is only 70km from the Russian border at Belgorod. Bear in mind this is one of the shortest routes to Kiev and therefore one that Russian generals planning the invasion of Ukraine would be looking at using. Likewise NATO genrals later in the warr when planning the counter offensive would be loomking to push the Russians back from Kiev. Hence I would anticipate that North East Ukraine would likely be the scene of some of the key battles - and quite possibly a decisive battle. Looking at the road networkk on Google Earth it could be that the area in the vicinity of Kharkov, Belgorod and Kursk might well be the scene of that decisive battle.

And export models of ther possible contenders such as the Leopard II and Challenger are widely used so it may be thatKiev will examine these alternatives as well

We wull have to wait and see. And we will have to see whether the parties involved, in particular n the Russian/Russian seperatist side keep their agreements. However, as with the last ceasefire it probably would not take much for any ceasefire to break down as the last one did. It took years to sort the Yugolslavia situation out and I suspect this one is just as complex, if not more so given the historical, nationalistic,military, political and economic issues involved.

I know from studying history at degree level that there are lots of source issues including bnational bias. For example French lancers at Waterloo mercilessly cut down Ponsonby. But when Briish cavalry charged d'Erlon's corps it is seen, by the same British sources, as a glorious cavalry charge although thousands of unfortunate French infantry would have been mercillesly cut down by th British cavalry. Similarly, considering the history it is going to be inevitable that there are ging to be greart differences of opinion between Westerners, Russians and Ukranians, For example, as the Ukranians would see it they were forced into the Soviet Union by the bayonets of the Red Army between 1918 and 1921 nd again after 1945. From tha perspective they would not wish to be under Moscow's control again. For Russia the issues might be an "unfair" end to the Cold War and their Eurasian Union project might be viewed throgh this prism. Combined with that of course is the experience of the Cold War itself - both the West and Russia viewing each other with mutual suspiscion based on the Cold War fears and hostiklities. As we will all be aware there are a lot of complex issues. I chose to give the gentleman in question the benef of the doubt once - I do not know him and so I prefer to avoid a rush to judgement. He may or may not be the troublemaker you mentin but, if he does not follow the forum rules despite warmngs and other members offering him friendly advice then, as you say, the options are limited. We can but hope he gets the message and accepts the advice/offers made. Anyway, I think I have said enough on that particular subject

There is potental for this to happen any time between now and June 2017. There have been violent clashes between pro Russian demonstrators and the Ukranian authorties in the city. Given that we cannot rule out the ossibility that serious fighting would spread to the city at some point which would make normal tank production difficult if not impossible. If this does not happen prior to the outbreak of war in June 2017 Kharkov would certainly be a key Russian objective during the early phase of the Russian invasion. The Ukranian army would very likely attempt a magor stand here given the strategic significance of the city. We would certainly have a Fifth Battle of Kharkov under these conditions and probably a sixth during the NATO counter offensive. This creates many scenario possibilities including both armoured battles outside the city and urban warfare.

The best solution will have to be a combined arms approach as with urban warfare. Probably best to send infantry dismounts in first supported by the tnks. Problem is that woods are definately not tank terrain so you may wellbe limited to tracks for armoured vehicles. And, of course a sensible pponent will know that and have those axis of advance covered by short range anti tak systems such as the RPGs. Air and/or artillery preparation would help but you are going to have to take your lumps if you cannot bypass such terrain..

Under Options in the Main menu list you can turn the musuic off and leave the sound on but that is the best that can be done unfortunately.

Another point about the Oplot is that they are made in Kharkov at the Mayshev Factory. Which of course is dangerously close to the Russian border. If at some stage Russia were to take Kharkov then Ukraine would also lose the production line if not at least some of the expertise http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malyshev_Factory I would not be surpised if, at sme point, Russia or the Russian seperatists mount an attack on this strategic city. And then Ukraine would have a real problem that might require them to look abroad for a new MBT.

Don't forget Georgia got thrashed by Russia in 2008 and, given this, would think twice about upsetting the big bad bear next door. Ukraine is not (yet) in this situation. hey are going to have to be re-equipped at some stage, particularly if they were to move towards NATO membership. This does not mean that all of their equipment will be foreign made but they may decide that domestic production cannot produce a modern MBT at an acceptable cost that is capable of taking on T-90s In which case foreign purchases must be considered as an alternative.

Bad things happen in woods! And there seem to be quite a lot of these in Ukraine.

Something I would like to have is a unit formation button allowing selection of infantry squad formation (eg Line, File, V) so I have the option of ordering that squad int a specific formation if I choose to do so.

In the longer term Kiev would probably like a new MBT on a par with the latest Russian models. There are a number of possiblties including the M1A2, Challenger II or Leopard II Likewise new IFVs are more than likely on the procurement list. The Ukranian army is certainly used to dealing with armoured vehcles but there are going to be significant technical differences between Western and Russian equipment, hence the need for intensive training. Then there are the political issues but, if Ukraine moves towards NATO membership procurement and training aimed at succesful joint operations as part of the NAT) alliance would be expected and neccessary. It seems likely this would be a prossess taking place over the medium and longer term.

There is an old Arab proverb. He who predicts the future lies even when he tells the truth Best we can do is t look at current trens and historical background and predict what may happpen in the future. And, as in the case af Syria the event we expect might happen but it might happen differently to the way we expected. For example. I might predict a geeral Middle East conflagration as he next war. My prediction is that it will be caused by Islamic State and oil (maybe future moderns Combat Mission game scenario here) However, if the conflict I predict occurs the causes and circumstances could well be very different to thse I was thinking might lead to the predicted conflict. Likewise we might predict a war between Russia d NATO but, instead of the Ukraine it might vbe caused by Belorussia or the Baltic States.

Could I make a suggestion Steve. You may of corse have tried this already. On another site I am a member of the policy is for he admnistrator t send a private message to the individuals involved asking them to tone it down or desist as they are breakig forum rules or are dangerously close to doing so. As a History and Politics graduate I uderstand how difficult it can be to avoid bias, including of course national bias which may well be the issue here. With an issue like this it is very hard to avoid politics and I find myself having to be very careful. Sometimes I am conscious of steering a little too close to the wind myself and needing o take extra caution and the same is likely true for many of us. Maybe it is the case that Skinfaxi lacks the experience to see this. However, it seems to me that he is a smart, well educated and intelligent man who could contribute much insight from the Russian perspective. It would be a shame to lose him which is why I tried to steer him back on course - and I was getting the feeling it was actually starting to work. Hopefully the short banning imposed on him will be succesful in doing the rest of the work and he wil have learned his lesson. Steve has probably already though of most of this so please consider this only as a personal suggestion from me .