kevinkin

I am not advocating nuclear war but advocating being more aggressive short of that. We will never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it. For example, would a no-fly zone over Ukraine instigate a nuclear war? Don't think so. Would a two week air campaign against Russian positions in Ukraine be dangerous. Maybe, maybe not. How did we come to the conclusion the current level of assistance to Ukraine is safe against escalation? We only know because we are giving it. I think measures directed to remove Russia from Ukraine, while not threatening Russia's existence, will not escalate. 

Are you suggesting Putin can be reasoned with? I understand the analogy you are making but it just doesn't apply to warfare. Especially when one side only respects strength and dismisses nuisance. 

No, it's far more important and therefore worth the added risk. 
 
All that can be managed. That's why we spent so much money on the technology and training to enforce a no-fly zone. If Russia lights up an allied a/c they would be toast. Yes, there is risk. But I think it's worth it to save Ukraine. I do respect your thoughts on this. Tough call. 

When I visited the Cliffs of Moher I marveled at the view the cows had every day. Never thought about nuclear war. But I guess those winds from multiple directions sum up life itself and we carry on regardless. 

That's the point. You get it. We can't let evil regimes have a place in the world order merely because they threaten mass destruction. At some point a confrontation has to take place or evil will run roughshod across the planet. 

That's the point. Why donate equipment to Ukraine at levels just enough to sustain a war whereby they succumb to a slow death?  It's like keeping a body on life support. Cruel. Either Ukraine is going to be part of the western world or not. Who really is afraid of nuclear escalation anyway? I am not. The world could have gone that road many times before. I would kill the cornered rat Russian while the time is actually perfect. Not even China would care if Putin and his unpredictable gangsters went bye bye.  

No, the west's proxy is being held out to dry having to fight a war without the resources to obtain their stated goals and the goals of stuff shirts in the western capitals. sumfink like that anyway. 

Give us a break. 

What the heck going on now? Seriously, I understand your point and fears of escalation. I just believe a war of the scale we are fighting can't be nuanced if the end result is something other than an ugly stalemate where Ukraine struggles to recover for years. Our so called leaders have to fess up and tell the world what their real goals are. Their actions do not support the stated objective that Ukraine will re-take its stolen lands. Something else is going on and it's as cold as a witch's tit. 

What the heck going on now? Seriously, I understand your point and fears of escalation. I just believe a war of the scale we are fighting can't be nuanced if the end result is something other than an ugly stalemate where Ukraine struggles to recover for years. Our so called leaders have to fess up and tell the world what their real goals are. Their actions do not support the stated objective that Ukraine will re-take its stolen lands. Something else is going on and it's as cold as a witch's tit. 

What the heck going on now? Seriously, I understand your point and fears of escalation. I just believe a war of the scale we are fighting can't be nuanced if the end result is something other than an ugly stalemate where Ukraine struggles to recover for years. Our so called leaders have to fess up and tell the world what their real goals are. Their actions do not support the stated objective that Ukraine will re-take its stolen lands. Something else is going on and it's as cold as a witch's tit. 

They control Crimea and a chunk of Ukraine to the north. They control the defenses for both for the foreseeable future. Russia in the present is getting away with a lot. No war crime trials, commercial flights, vacations, plenty of stuff for those that play by the rules while sending their poor youth to the front. Status quo for now. Happy Happy. And grandmother China is there if all else fails. 
Russia has already been defeated geostrategically. That's conventional wisdom. They are facing new NATO members, they are under sanctions and otherwise in internal disarray. Good for the west. But they still hold non-negotiable land: Bad for Ukraine. 
How about a NATO no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory? No stomach for that. Well consider NATO donations have already killed Russians without which those troops would still be in the fight. 
BTW,  there never seems to be a discussion of Ukraine as a nation into the future. That is the entire point. If Ukraine evaporates as a nation and free society due to a prolonged war of attrition, what is this fight all about? Cool youtube videos and twitter posts? Putin is punting the ball to West. See what you can do. How about taking that ball and running with it?   

I doesn't matter, St Pete was just thrown out there. But do something western capitals. Your weapons have already killed Russians. Kick it up a notch and grow some initiative. The west can't fight with its navy nor air force. They are so tied up Houdini couldn't figure this one out. They are playing right into whatever strength Russian has - ground forces. Putin's nuclear bluster has to be challenged. Better to do it now rather than kicking the can down the road for the next gen to figure out under even worse circumstances.

Mining the Black Sea:
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo
Up to 10 percent of the world’s grain is produced in Ukraine. The country serves as the bread basket for much of the Middle East and North Africa
“The question is how much would a nation want to get involved? You know, we just deployed a destroyer, and F-35s and F-16s to protect merchant ships coming out of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian attacks,” Mercogliano said. “Yet we seem like we’re not going to do the same for ships in the Black Sea.”
I do think grain will get through in the end as it did before. But how about mining the approaches to St. Petersburg as a bargaining chip in the interim? The west has to establish the initiative somewhere, anywhere. Seems like the west has been reacting to Russia rather than the other way around.  
Jul 19, 2023 - Press ISW
Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted the infrastructure necessary for executing the Black Sea grain deal in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and other oblasts. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck grain and oil terminals and damaged tanks and loading equipment. Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi reported that Russian strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the Chornomorsk port in Odesa Oblast on the night of July 19. The Southern Operational Command added that Russian strikes also targeted coastal areas in Mykolaiv Oblast and some infrastructure in Kherson City. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Captain of the First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian July 19 strikes “happened virtually simultaneously,” and that Russian forces likely attempted to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense systems. Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that this attack was the most intense missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Which is more strategically significant, the Kerch bridge or the grain exports?
 

Few days old:
https://www.businessinsider.com/minefields-force-ukraine-to-change-counteroffensive-strategy-russia-2023-7
Ukraine has been forced to change its counteroffensive strategy after repeatedly coming up against dense Russian minefields, a report says.
Ukrainian units are leaving behind the battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles donated by Western allies and advancing slowly on foot, The Washington Post reported.
"You can no longer do anything with just a tank with some armor because the minefield is too deep, and sooner or later, it will stop, and then it will be destroyed by concentrated fire," Ukraine's commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny told The Post.
Russian forces also continue to drop more mines from the air onto areas that Ukrainians have cleared, further complicating Ukraine's clearance efforts.
No fly zone? What a freaking thought?
Shaping operations? Yep, western media is shaping the public so they understand the going will be slow if not impossible without more direct NATO involvement. UA soldiers are now attacking dense minefields without US armor protection. The media shaping ops are more effective than Ukraine's have been. Which might not be a bad thing in the end. What's the old saying "you just can't throw money at the problem" and go to Ocean City for the weekend. 

They control Crimea and a chunk of Ukraine to the north. They control the defenses for both for the foreseeable future. Russia in the present is getting away with a lot. No war crime trials, commercial flights, vacations, plenty of stuff for those that play by the rules while sending their poor youth to the front. Status quo for now. Happy Happy. And grandmother China is there if all else fails. 
Russia has already been defeated geostrategically. That's conventional wisdom. They are facing new NATO members, they are under sanctions and otherwise in internal disarray. Good for the west. But they still hold non-negotiable land: Bad for Ukraine. 
How about a NATO no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory? No stomach for that. Well consider NATO donations have already killed Russians without which those troops would still be in the fight. 
BTW,  there never seems to be a discussion of Ukraine as a nation into the future. That is the entire point. If Ukraine evaporates as a nation and free society due to a prolonged war of attrition, what is this fight all about? Cool youtube videos and twitter posts? Putin is punting the ball to West. See what you can do. How about taking that ball and running with it?   

They control Crimea and a chunk of Ukraine to the north. They control the defenses for both for the foreseeable future. Russia in the present is getting away with a lot. No war crime trials, commercial flights, vacations, plenty of stuff for those that play by the rules while sending their poor youth to the front. Status quo for now. Happy Happy. And grandmother China is there if all else fails. 
Russia has already been defeated geostrategically. That's conventional wisdom. They are facing new NATO members, they are under sanctions and otherwise in internal disarray. Good for the west. But they still hold non-negotiable land: Bad for Ukraine. 
How about a NATO no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory? No stomach for that. Well consider NATO donations have already killed Russians without which those troops would still be in the fight. 
BTW,  there never seems to be a discussion of Ukraine as a nation into the future. That is the entire point. If Ukraine evaporates as a nation and free society due to a prolonged war of attrition, what is this fight all about? Cool youtube videos and twitter posts? Putin is punting the ball to West. See what you can do. How about taking that ball and running with it?   

They control Crimea and a chunk of Ukraine to the north. They control the defenses for both for the foreseeable future. Russia in the present is getting away with a lot. No war crime trials, commercial flights, vacations, plenty of stuff for those that play by the rules while sending their poor youth to the front. Status quo for now. Happy Happy. And grandmother China is there if all else fails. 
Russia has already been defeated geostrategically. That's conventional wisdom. They are facing new NATO members, they are under sanctions and otherwise in internal disarray. Good for the west. But they still hold non-negotiable land: Bad for Ukraine. 
How about a NATO no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory? No stomach for that. Well consider NATO donations have already killed Russians without which those troops would still be in the fight. 
BTW,  there never seems to be a discussion of Ukraine as a nation into the future. That is the entire point. If Ukraine evaporates as a nation and free society due to a prolonged war of attrition, what is this fight all about? Cool youtube videos and twitter posts? Putin is punting the ball to West. See what you can do. How about taking that ball and running with it?   

Mining the Black Sea:
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo
Up to 10 percent of the world’s grain is produced in Ukraine. The country serves as the bread basket for much of the Middle East and North Africa
“The question is how much would a nation want to get involved? You know, we just deployed a destroyer, and F-35s and F-16s to protect merchant ships coming out of the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian attacks,” Mercogliano said. “Yet we seem like we’re not going to do the same for ships in the Black Sea.”
I do think grain will get through in the end as it did before. But how about mining the approaches to St. Petersburg as a bargaining chip in the interim? The west has to establish the initiative somewhere, anywhere. Seems like the west has been reacting to Russia rather than the other way around.  
Jul 19, 2023 - Press ISW
Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted the infrastructure necessary for executing the Black Sea grain deal in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and other oblasts. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck grain and oil terminals and damaged tanks and loading equipment. Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi reported that Russian strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the Chornomorsk port in Odesa Oblast on the night of July 19. The Southern Operational Command added that Russian strikes also targeted coastal areas in Mykolaiv Oblast and some infrastructure in Kherson City. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Captain of the First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian July 19 strikes “happened virtually simultaneously,” and that Russian forces likely attempted to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense systems. Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that this attack was the most intense missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Which is more strategically significant, the Kerch bridge or the grain exports?
 

Anyone rushing out to see Oppenheimer this weekend? I am not a big movie goer. But this has been getting good previews especially in IMAX. So it looks like next week for me. I heard the thing really goes boom - no feedstock nor livestock harmed during the filming. It would make for an interesting observational project to see who goes into the Oppenheimer theater and who goes to see Barb*e. 

Anyone rushing out to see Oppenheimer this weekend? I am not a big movie goer. But this has been getting good previews especially in IMAX. So it looks like next week for me. I heard the thing really goes boom - no feedstock nor livestock harmed during the filming. It would make for an interesting observational project to see who goes into the Oppenheimer theater and who goes to see Barb*e. 

Anyone rushing out to see Oppenheimer this weekend? I am not a big movie goer. But this has been getting good previews especially in IMAX. So it looks like next week for me. I heard the thing really goes boom - no feedstock nor livestock harmed during the filming. It would make for an interesting observational project to see who goes into the Oppenheimer theater and who goes to see Barb*e. 

Both. But the latter should be more efficacious than a show of force. The west has almost met its geostrategic goals with NATO expanding and Russia is in disarray economically and socially. So the west appears to be in this thing not to lose rather than for Ukraine to win back its borders. I am not sure who they would like to break first - Russia or Ukraine? Either way that gets the west to negotiations which is their true aim anyway. But in the meantime the Ukraine is being led on by dribs and drabs of assistance for fear of actually pissing Putin off. So the heroes in Ukraine are fighting for the cowards in the west's capitols. We can't let nuclear blackmail stand. Or if we can't stomach that, we shouldn't stand by and let its use destroy a smaller country through conventional attrition.  

Ukraine has no choice. The point is that the west does. If the UA relies on arty and that is in short supply, the west has to innovate to try to show the public (voters) that the offensive is working and the UA soldier is not being held out to dry. You and I understand how difficult their task is. But the public's attention is short and they generally want results now. Every few weeks there is another aid package. It's never a good idea to normalize war especially a horrific one. It can be self defeating. 

Both. But the latter should be more efficacious than a show of force. The west has almost met its geostrategic goals with NATO expanding and Russia is in disarray economically and socially. So the west appears to be in this thing not to lose rather than for Ukraine to win back its borders. I am not sure who they would like to break first - Russia or Ukraine? Either way that gets the west to negotiations which is their true aim anyway. But in the meantime the Ukraine is being led on by dribs and drabs of assistance for fear of actually pissing Putin off. So the heroes in Ukraine are fighting for the cowards in the west's capitols. We can't let nuclear blackmail stand. Or if we can't stomach that, we shouldn't stand by and let its use destroy a smaller country through conventional attrition.