kevinkin
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Posts posted by kevinkin
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BBC:
Prigozhin and Belarus president agreed to 'de-escalate situation'
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has held talks with Wagner mercenary group head Yevgeny Prigozhin during which Prigozhin agreed to stop his troops and "de-escalate the situation", Rossiya 24 news channel said.
"Prigozhin accepted Lukashenko's proposal to stop the movement of Wagner in Russian territory and on further steps to de-escalate tension," Rossiya 24 said, quoting Lukashenko's press service.
It also said it was proving "possible to find an acceptable variant of de-escalating [the situation] with security guarantees for Wagner PMC's fighters".
Rossiya 24 said the conversation had been agreed with Putin.
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Gary Kasparov:
A war to take Kyiv in three days has turned into taking Moscow in two!
Having been defeated repeatedly by Ukraine, Russian forces have found an easier opponent, one with corrupt leadership, incompetent commanders, and low morale.
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NY Post Headline this morning:
BREAKING VLAD
Vladimir Putin’s presidential plane left Moscow early Saturday, sparking rumors that he had fled the Russian capital as the Wagner Group’s mercenary forces advanced on the city.
The president’s aircraft was spotted on flight radar flying northwest from Moscow to the St Petersburg area — but then disappeared from the system near the city of Tver, the BBC reported, where Putin owns a large rural retreat.
Meanwhile Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said his forces are coming to help Russia put down the mutiny by the private Wagner Group, which has taken control of one Russian city and gained a foothold in another, creating the biggest threat to Putin’s presidency in his long career.
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Got to love the sense of humor:
Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.
“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."
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BBC:
Video claiming to show Yevgeny Prigozhin inside Russia's southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don is circulating online.
In the video Prigozhin says his troops will blockade the city and move on to Moscow unless defence chiefs Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov come to meet them.
The BBC has not been able to independently verify the footage, but we are looking into it and will bring you more when we have it.
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BBC again. Taylor comments that the coup will fail and echoes ISW 6PM assessment:
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s declared move against the Russian military leadership is "almost certainly an attempted coup", the former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor has told the BBC.
“This is serious for Putin. The Russians are taking this very seriously, and it sounds like they should.”
But Taylor, who was in Ukraine last month, says the Wagner boss is unlikely to succeed.
“The ministry of defence forces have the equipment, have the aircraft, have the tanks – they have the military equipment in numbers – to put down Prigozhin's forces," he says.
But the Russian infighting could potentially help Ukraine in its fight to defeat Russia's invasion, Taylor said.
"If the Russians are now worried about their chain of command, then the Russians that are supposed to be fighting the Ukrainians may be distracted and may even run."
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3 minutes ago, chris talpas said:
Any Russian speakers able to translate
Not me. But the video says a lot. Kuzovlev is either completely humiliated or part of the coup.
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7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
There is no going back for Prig.
I agree. ISW may change they assessment tomorrow. Things are moving so fast, I will give them slack.
Nothing like a 2 front war, especial when the second one is in your strategic rear in your home country. Very loosely reminds me of the end of WW1.
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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:
That was before it became clear Wagner took SMD headquarters and a great deal else without firing a shot.
Do you think events tonight will change ISW assessment of what Wagner is targeting? Anyway, I wonder if they bag a lot of important officers, or they ran away, or the might be supporting the coup?
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BBC summary of ISW
The US thinktank the Institute of War (ISW) believes Yevgeny Prigozhin is aiming to force a leadership change within the Kremlin's defence ministry - but suggests he is "unlikely to succeed" because the Kremlin appears opposed to his action.
However any Wagner attempt to take control of Rostov-on-Don could have an impact on the war in Ukraine because Rostov is home to the Russian southern military district command, which has been key to Russia's war efforts.
The southern military district’s 58th combined arms army is “currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command centre for the Russian joint group of forces in Ukraine as a whole”, it says.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023
So this is an attack on the MOD leadership not Putin directly in their view. But who would replace those senior officers? Interesting indeed. And what a great place to start - Rostov.
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Pretty brave to approach unknown troops with guns in the middle of an attempted coup and ask them where they are from. You go girl.
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1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:
His voice has weight.
Is his main audience the other oligarchs and well off Russians in general. I would think so.
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Anti-Kremlin tycoon urges Russians to back Wagner boss
Anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky has urged Russians to support Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin who, as we've been reporting, has vowed to bring down Moscow's military leadership.Khodorkovsky, who was once Russia’s richest oligarch, said: "We need to help now, and then, if necessary, we will fight this one, too."
After falling out with Vladimir Putin, he spent 10 years in a Russian prison and recently called for tougher sanctions against the Russian president.
Khodorkovsky said it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin.
Does this guy live in Russia? 10 years in jail, love to meet his accountants.
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Stay indoors, Russian regional governor tells residents
In the last few moments the governor of Russia's Rostov region - which borders Ukraine to the east - has urged citizens to stay indoors.Writing on Telegram Vasily Golubev said: "The current situation requires the maximum concentration of all forces to maintain order.
"Law enforcement agencies are doing everything necessary to ensure the safety of residents of the area.
"I ask everyone to stay calm and do not leave the house without the need."
Wagner group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin earlier claimed without providing evidence that his forces had crossed from Ukraine, where they had been fighting, into Russia.
Russian military vehicles have been deployed in the regional city of Rostov-on-Don, about 100km to the east of the border with Ukraine.
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Tass says riot police and National Guard scrambling to tighten security at government buildings in Moscow.
Just a one sentence flash report.
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War Zone reports on the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB):
A top Pentagon official on Thursday testified before Congress that those weapons won’t come online until this Fall. She also said while controversial cluster munitions would “be useful” to Ukraine, the U.S. has no immediate plans to provide them for a host of reasons.
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44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The other thing that needs to happen is get f'n Xi and Modi to use their back channels with the Kremlin and media reach to make it clear that if Russia does this they will be fighting NATO alone.
This could have happened already. We all know about Russian bluster. To me its more important to signal western systems will keep flowing to defend the inevitable gains Ukraine makes this summer and fall even if they fall short of a compete liberation. The precious UA soldier needs to be used wisely. Bullets not Bodies. That's what I see happening on the ground. Multiple economy of force probes to train the new UA and provide enough success to kept DC in the game. I don't see how Ukraine can play it any better given the cards dealt.
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17 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Unless Biden signs something it is all just talk.
Yep, it's would be about funding for the long run. But if the interests of NATO are threatened, emergency action could be taken without signing legislation. For example, we detect the imminent release of radioactivity from the plant that might somehow affect Poland.
Still, executive branch lawyers concede that the president cannot unilaterally commit the military to a conflict of substantial nature, scope, and duration, even if there is a strong national interest. Any military confrontation between Russia and NATO would surely be of a substantial nature, scope, and duration — and would therefore require congressional authorization.
I think the resolution is a good move aimed to prevent WW3 rather that stoke it. "NATO" has already entered the war via all kinds of support. So this tightens the screws a tiny bit more. I would like a resolution that has more meat. "Given the anticipated liberation of Ukraine, we hereby support the transfer of the following systems to provide for the Ukraine's defense of its hard won gains"
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49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I want to live longer.
Well, without knowing the company's business at all (inventory already in Russian early 2022 anyway). Let's just think positive and consider this a devious way to deliver WMDs. Can't we imagine Russian troops using Oreo cookies as poker chips forgetting about their sentry duty? Or the witch's tactic in Hansel and Gretel - an Oreo trail back and out of Ukraine. Harness the power of junk food.
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I remember early on, there was reporting on how the UA was utilizing the females in the defense against. I have not seen much on this lately. So how are the RA and UA using 50% of their adults? Is Russia using them at all? Will finding roles for females provide an advantage over Russia? I am not suggesting storming trenches. Perhaps part of UAV teams. Just curious on how this factors into the war or if it does at all in a meaningful way.
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Blinken received assurances on lethal aid however Xi is no choir boy:
"Export controls always work imperfectly. Period. But they don't have to work perfectly to be effective," said Fried, who served as U.S. ambassador to Poland under former President Bill Clinton. "An imperfect, leaky sanctions regime nevertheless imposes a cost on the Russian economy, and the military in particular."
However,
Between March and December of 2022, Moscow imported 72 percent of the total value of its critical components from China, an increase from just 22 percent during the same period the previous year, according to the Russian trade data.
Companies based in the U.S. produced 64 percent of the dual-use goods—components that can be used for military purposes, as well as for consumer products such as automobiles and household appliances—that Russia imported between March and December of 2022, according to the Russian trade data.
"We're at the point now where the export controls should start having an impact. But Russia is adapting," Kilcrease said. "We've taken the big swing we could take. Now it's really about enforcement."
Well that is sort of like trying to catch a moth on the windy night.
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53 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I simply don't care what budget shenanigans the President has to pull finish beating the Russians in Ukraine.
I do. There should be no shenanigans. Send Miley and Austin III as envoys to Putin and show him our Chinese menu of hurt. And the fortune cookies all have losing lottery numbers. Do it now, or there will nothing left in Ukraine to fight for other than fertile dirt.
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27 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I think Biden is making it clear to the nutcases at the outermost ends of the political spectrum that he will torture the accounting as necessary if they bleep around on the next supplemental appropriation for Ukraine.
Or maybe he is making clear you guys go make pinatas out of the paper we print. Then let the candy fall to the floor for "our children" to enjoy. There a different arithmetic in Washington. Try applying that grammar schooling to a citizen's bills and checking accounts.
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1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:
Very graphic this
Yeah it is. The video is all over the place and viewed countless times. It reminds me of the guys after work playing some game called Quake (90's) on the company network. Four of them giggling like school girls having just enough knowledge of military matters to make you laugh yourself. Some have told me they thought the vid was fake because "there's no blood". Like a 1960's war movie. If I were to view the video without any experience, I might come to the same conclusion. Many Americans are clueless on what is happening. Most frankly. They are too busy. Those that are into fake valor and the irresponsible use of firearms will rejoice in this video; those with real valor and use firearms responsibly will not.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
BBC:
Wagner forces have halted advance on Moscow - reports
Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has put out a voice note on his Telegram channel saying he has has agreed to "stop" the movement of his troops who are advancing on the Russian capital.
Where does Lukashenko fit into this?