kevinkin
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Posts posted by kevinkin
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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:
Frankly I am not convinced that FSB has enough internal coherence, leadership and independence to play this kind of own, very risky political games. Some informal clans- maybe. But FSB as a whole? Call me skeptical. On other side, a lot of things could change during this 1,5 year that is not yet visible to amateurs with naked eye.
Thanks for your perspective. Have to keep an eye on developments and maybe we can learn a bit more about Russian internal relationships after Prigs adventure.
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38 minutes ago, IanL said:
FSB is an organization that actually exists.
And meets what we consider to be a deep state. Don't transfer the term used in that article over western politics. It was invoked in the context of Russia and Russia alone. People complain all the time about everything and like said 95+ % would look cross eyed if you asked them to define deep state. If any modern entity is a deep state, it's FSB.
In the 1970s, former high-ranking officials of the Soviet Union, after defecting to the West, publicly stated that the Soviet political police – the KGB – had operated as a deep state secretly attempting to control the Communist Party and ultimately, the Soviet government.
In a 2006 symposium, Ion Mihai Pacepa, a former general in the Communist Romania secret police who defected to the United States in 1978, stated, "In the Soviet Union, the KGB was a state within a state.”
I don't think much has changed other than the name of the KGB. So, this is not about the west. It's about who really runs Russia and who safe guards the control and use of WMD.
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Hot off the presses War Zone interview with Budanov:
One exchange:
TWZ: Back in November, you told me that you didn’t think Putin would survive the war. Has this situation changed your thinking at all? Does he survive?
KB: Had Mr. Prigozhin fulfilled his initial plan, Russia would have been divided into at least two parts by now but as he didn't, we're still about to see. Because had Prigozhin entered an empty Kremlin that day, he would would have shown to the public that the Kremlin is empty. There are no ministers. There are no real high-ranking officials there. They all have escaped, and he would demonstrate that there's no authority in power currently in Russia. But on the other hand, some officials from St. Petersburg or elsewhere would start claiming that they're the legitimate power which makes a situation of two powers in the country, which immediately would be split.
Budanov is often guarded which is understandable.
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2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
There's some pretty hilarious videos of such people being asked to define what they are screaming and it doesn't end well for them
Person in the street interviews are an often used combination of humor and politics. Maybe the technique has replaced the old fashion pollical cartoon.
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6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
The difference is that the people who ascribe to "deep state" think that there's a secret cabal running the show and the chief executive and elected officials are just window dressing. So it isn't just about fighting the bureaucrats who are hidebound and unmotivated to change, it's that they are doing it deliberately according to some organized agenda to deprive people of their rights and opportunities to prosper. They also make no allowances for rule of law or that radical and untested change is rarely a good thing in the end.
Sounds like the FSB. I think the writers of The Hill article were using the term the way you outline and not trying to invoke western political speak other than some in a small circle might understand what the term means. 95+ of people could not tell you what it refers to.
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3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
WHEN the US finally approves the deployment of ATACMS to Ukraine, it will happen fast. VERY fast. We could possibly see strikes within days. Especially if the announcement is timed like Storm Shadow was.
Agree. Can't wait.
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22 minutes ago, IanL said:
Yeah but the FSB is a real group with leadership, intention and structure that really hurts people to preserve power for the dictator. Perhaps in this case now for itself. While the "deep state" is just a made up boogie man that is nothing more than the general bureaucracy that moves slow and resists change.
Let's not get tied up in semantics. The point is not how to define the FSM or a, but how much they are in control vs the office/position of the President. Bureaucracy = deep state except the later sounds more nefarious to some. Try to fight city hall and find out how deep their pockets are compare the single citizen.
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One of perhaps several reasons the FSB kept Putin in the dark:
The FSB is a dystopian version of what some Americans refer to as the “deep state.” It is dystopian in the sense that Russia is, as Calder Walton fittingly argued in his article in Time, “effectively a security service with a state attached.” Whereas the FBI and CIA exist to protect the United States, as John Sipher pointed out in another piece for Time, the FSB exists solely “to keep the regime in power.”
If the source of power starts with the FSB, they can select the face of the nation. Putin is now a useful idiot and will be discarded if and when the time is right. This has implications on the chances the Russia failing quickly top to bottom and the safety of WMD. Maybe those freaking mother of all poker chips are safer than we think. As evil as they are, perhaps the FSB represent the only remaining adults in Russian.
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Wrong thread.
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Wrong thread.
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1 hour ago, strac_sap said:
I think there was confusion about my earlier posts because I believed even in 1990 that manually trying to breach a minefield under accurate fire was impossible.
Thanks for joining the discussion.
One side thought is to never allow the enemy the operational time and space to place minefields in the first place. This is one of the reasons some cringed when Ukraine needed to stop their fall offensive due to exhaustion. Mines may be the one thing preventing a quick rather than fast UA breakthrough and with that more losses. Add close air support to that too.
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Folks continue to piece together the last weekend's events. Published a few hours ago. Surovikin may have been arrested.
In addition to the FSB discovery, Russia's National Guard was also aware of what was happening, at least according to its commander, Gen. Viktor Zolotov.
“Specific leaks about preparations for a rebellion that would begin between June 22-25 were leaked from Prigozhin’s camp,” Zolotov told state media on Tuesday, according to the Journal.
Western officials independently learned about Prigozhin's plan "by analyzing electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery," the Journal wrote, citing a person familiar with the findings. "Western officials said they believe the original plot had a good chance of success but failed after the conspiracy was leaked, forcing Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan."
NO mention Putin knew ahead of time so what's up with FSB?
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
The concern amongst many is there are those who think the 1950s was a fine time and we should return to it.
As a society strives to improve decade by decade and does so with stops and starts, the line "these are the good old days' by Carly Simon comes to mind.
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Zombie Apocalypse -> Russian style:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-convict-wagner-crime-108e410835e4bf27ac3192cd7f945b39
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The first use was in 2017 in Afghanistan. I think it's a matter of delivery i.e. getting it to the target safely. There may be other constraints. Russians have their own version too.
4 minutes ago, Eddy said:a) that was true?
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3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”
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ISW:
Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]
Sky News:
Lukashenko orders Belarusian army to be at 'full combat readiness'
In the last few moments, Alexander Lukashenko has started speaking to journalists about the Wagner Group's 24-hour mutiny in Russia.After the events took place, the Belarusian president says he gave all the orders to bring the army to full combat readiness and all forces, including the police, were placed on full alert.
"I said: in any case, do not make a hero out of me, neither of me nor of Putin nor of Prigozhin, because we let the situation slip from our hands, and then we thought that it would resolve itself, but it did not," he says.
"And two people who were fighting at the front collided. There are no heroes in this case."
More moving parts than a Swiss watch. Yikes. If this isn't a distraction for the Russian system, what else could be? Ah maybe a faint toward Crimea.
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27 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding,
Here is more on UA actions posted today:
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2 hours ago, DesertFox said:
As per the twitter account:
Thanks.
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Who is she? Good English with a bit of drama.
4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:Oh that's an interesting one
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In the NYP today form a from a former Russian Ambassador under Obama:
Wagner Group commander Yegevny Prigozhin is now an “alternative leader’’ in Russia — created by President Vladimir Putin himself — and he likely won’t stay banished for long, according to a top former US official.
Prigozhin has transformed overnight from a cutthroat mercenary chief into a “nationalist, populist leader,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia under the Obama administration, to “Today” after the rogue commander’s 36-hour revolt against Moscow.
“Putin has now created an alternative leader, and that’s very dangerous for him,” McFaul said, noting Prigozhin’s well-received mutinous statements against Putin posted on Telegram and video footage of him being cheered on by Russian citizens.
“I don’t know how [Putin] is going to control him.”
Vlad visited him at his first restaurants and they became friends and wealthy together. He can't control Prig. He can kill him or work with him (get what he can out of as possible) then kill him. Unless this is a match made in Hell which can actually survive something like we are witnessing. However, the adventure over in Belarus makes me wonder if divorce papers have been filed yet.
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8 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I don't think anybody wanted to be in that picture.
Wish the guy in the background had a briefcase primed and ready. Explosives have improved since 1944 I would think.
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Maybe if the senior bass is brushed aside, lower level command will have to stand on their own two feet and practice mission command. That should be fun to watch.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Sort of like the L shaped ambush formation we are familiar with, but on the move. However is appears the long leg is on the enemy side of the brush row and not the friendly side. Maybe that's to bag Russian running away.