poesel

While we talk about Krynky: what happened to traversing the former lake above the Kakhovka dam? Is it dry enough, or will it be impossible to cross for the next years? Or doesn't that make any sense to do anyway?

Ach - how have I missed Germany bashing day. Seufz... Actually, yes. The parliament. Which is, for historical reasons, the way it is in Germany. The government can only petition the parliament to go to war. You would need a two-thirds majority which the current government doesn't have. Then that needs to be approved by the second chamber, too. We made quite sure one person cannot start a war from Germany again.

Scholz (finally) explained why Germany won't deliver Taurus to Ukraine. TL;DR: you would need German soldiers in Ukraine to operate Taurus, and that would make Germany a war party. The explanation implies that the UK & France have just done that for Stormshadow/Scalp, but Germany won't. This has caused harsh critics from the usual suspects (which is from the opposition and the other two parties of Scholz government). The point that German soldiers are absolutely necessary also seems factually wrong. Scholz has willingly painted himself in that corner. I don't see a way out of it. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/ukraine-olaf-scholz-begruendet-ablehnung-der-taurus-lieferung-a-3a43bb97-3709-4e24-80c9-dafb6ca2de75

The R-37 is a very good missile, one of the best available. Especially dangerous is that it can restart its motor in the final phase. Usually AA can't do that and rely on the energy they got from the boost phase. The R-37 can be a nasty surprise. This is a good article about the R-37 and generally about Russian & Chinese long range AA missile: https://londonpolitica.com/euroasia/how-do-nato-and-the-west-compare-with-chinese-and-russian-air-to-air-technology

Because a missile has 400km range, that doesn't mean it can down a fighter jet at that range. The chances would be very, very low, especially if the jet is linked to an AWACS.

Good article that probably those people who are in need of reading it, never will. Fun fact: they are citing Scholz for debunking myths about Ukraine. How far have we come?

You are right, but it seems to be doable. And if they managed to put HARMS on Mig-29s then a Meteor on an F-16 is a piece of cake https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/meteor-potential-improvement-of-ukrainian-f-16/

China would never ever do anything that jeopardized international waterways. This would directly cut into their trading revenue and they would bleed themselves. Even if Putin wouldn't for once been lying and the pipe were operational tomorrow: a pipe has two ends and one end is closed. And it won't open again (at least not for natural gas). Germany has long term contracts with other suppliers. We don't need Russian gas anymore. Even if it were politically possible to buy Russian gas again, it would take years before we would. That ship has sailed, working pipeline or not. Drones of this size usually use Lithium-polymer (Lipo) batteries. Fully charged, they have 4.2V. If you care about the longevity of your batteries, you don't discharge them below 3.5V. If you go below that, you get a 'low battery' alarm (the threshold is of course adjustable). If you don't care (and you don't for kamikaze drones) then you can suck them dry. But if the voltage gets too low, your control electronics will fail. Much of these electronics run at 3.3V so 3V is really close to the edge of losing the drone.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but there are a lot of 'ifs' in this calculation. First is if the F-16 will have data integration with an AWACS. That would allow the Ukrainians to fly and shoot without active radar. Huge advantage. Next is the type of missile. If they get the AIM120D instead of the C they have 160km instead of 105km. Or they get Meteors and now they have 200km. The attacking SUs can't hog the ground to drop their bombs. They would be vulnerable until they can loose their loads. OTOH the R37 missile is supposed to have a range of 300km. Who knows how much it really has. A S400 has +500km range, but Russia has already lost some of them. Range doesn't mean you have a certain kill, but you can still spoil an attack even with a missile that missed in the end. So the F-16 is no Wunderwaffe, but it makes the life of the Russian pilots much more difficult. Especially if they get that AWACS integration. And history has shown that the Russians need some time to learn, and this is where I hope they will fall out of the sky. Won't help you much if the other end of that pipe is closed.

If airplanes are the Russian resources that run out first, then the F-16 (or rather its possible stock of western missiles) will make a difference. It would be interesting to know which missiles they get. But obviously they won't tell for good reason. I predict a short flurry of downed Russian planes and then an end to the (mass) use of glide bombs from the Russian side.

As I understand it, the Russians need: airplanes to drop glide bombs, artillery, (any) IFVs, (any) tanks & lots of men for their 'successes' on the battlefield. Which of those will run out first? I thought that would be artillery, as that was heavily targeted by Ukraine for a while. The hope was that Russia would run out of tubes. But that didn't happen, no? The types of IFVs or tanks used seems to be irrelevant. The difference in duration on the battlefield (between old & new types) seems to be negligible.

Panther turret '24. Not that useful anymore. Destruction of an unusual Russian firing position, which is a BMP-2 buried in the sand. By the 38th Brigade of Ukraine. https://t.me/argus38/68

RSA could restrict the export of arms & ammunition. IANAL, but I'm pretty sure they have laws for that. But I doubt they would use that card unless they want to be cut off from western arms, too.

I read a lot of 'too little, too late' comments to this post. I have some experience with production lines and at that scale it is usually one year to plan, on year to build. Under the assumption that the decision has already been made and you have the funds. In this light, this is not too bad.

With such a defensive line, aren't you basically giving up the territory between the line and the enemy? Because that line works both ways and will make supplying the western side very difficult. Train cars seem to also be very susceptible to HE fire so you can't put anything in them. You can hide behind them, but why? I don't understand how this would be useful at all.

Sorry to derail the thread with stories from Ukraine... Not that much news for the folks here, but still interesting:

Probably of this kind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxodium_distichum

Wrt to Scholz meeting with Biden: it's a bit funny that Germany, who was scolded for its pusillanimity, seems to have become one of the main driving powers behind the support of Ukraine. How the tables turn. Even inside Germany, there is no real opposition against that support. There is an ongoing-heated debate here about the funds for the fiscal year of 2024 with, amongst others, huge farmer protests. But no one (important) has proposed to cut the funds for Ukraine. That has surprised me TBH. But then it is very German to take a long time to get around to one thing, but then we stick to it forever (for better or worse).

Who in the US needs to sign off on arms purchases from NATO partners, and who sets the price? Is there a loophole for delivering arms to Ukraine?

I'd like to add that the CASEVAC drone just needs a magnetic compass and a barometer (or LIDAR) to fly towards the friendlies. Neither of which can be jammed. As soon as it is out of EW range, it can fly with all sensors towards its destination.

Could someone please explain what this Zelenskyy / Zalushny thing is all about? Is that only a political quarrel, and Zelenskyy is trying to get rid of a rival? Or is there some real concern that a general is trying to reach for political power?

Adding to what @TheVulture said: there is not much difference in the end result between sending a drone into a zone with the order to kill any human it can find and sending an artillery shell into the same area. Apart from hand-to-hand combat, everything is a remote kill. The really scary part is when the AI can decide when to send a drone to kill somewhere. Hello Skynet.

Germany considers delivering Taurus to the UK in exchange for Stormshadows for Ukraine. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/taurus-marschflugkoerper-deutschland-erwaegt-ringtausch-fuer-ukraine-a-5c9a23d0-fd34-4706-9de0-b85cab5e3ed8 Is 'Ringtausch' already an English word?

DW has a longer article (in German) about the situation in Baschkortostan. TL;DR: will it topple Russia? - no, but it is a sign. https://www.dw.com/de/was-es-mit-den-protesten-in-russland-auf-sich-hat/a-68026361

Let's assume that this is correct (and I think it's likely) and also that Putin is aware of this. So his counter-strategy is to dig in to keep what he has and to mount some attacks to be seen active to the Russian public. And at the same time not annoy the important people and get rid of the unwanted or unnecessary. I don't see Putin run out of money or people anytime soon. The same goes for (enough) support from the West, and the Ukrainians have no choice.