sburke

China Wants New Partners For Its Moon Missions As Its Relationship With Russia Cools (msn.com)

yeah I notice they are singing that in Moscow. How about they go to kherson and belt out a few stanzas.

I'm not sure Putin is that clear on what he considers important or to put it another way, what he would settle for. He wanted a subjugated Ukraine. What he has so far is a tiger by the tail and he doesn't know how to let go. His statement that the new referendum is nonnegotiable is a joke. if he really thought that was his new line he'd suggest a ceasefire. He knows he's not getting that. Ukraine is sensing blood in the water and to use your Jaws reference... he'd need a bigger boat. Right now he's in a f'kn leaking dingy and his crew is using the stooges "water letter outer". Dang and there is a youtube video @LongLeftFlank Meanwhile the mobilization is just going splendid! Russian conscripts beat up their officer after he tells them 'you are all cannon fodder' (msn.com)

Russian-Installed Official Killed in Pinpoint HIMARS Strike by Ukraine (msn.com) Alexei Katerinichev, who served as the first deputy head for security of the Kremlin-appointed administration of the Kherson region, was killed on Friday, Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Moscow-controlled region, said. [Alexei] Katerinichev died as a result of a pinpoint strike from HIMARS. Two rockets hit the house in which he was," Stremousov was cited by Russia's state-run news agency Tass as saying.

you did notice he said "if". He didn't actually make an unqualified yes.

David Axe over at Forbes is a pretty decent reporter Russian Correspondent: Thousands Of Russian Troops Are About To Get Trapped In Eastern Ukraine (msn.com)

A Russian oligarch's girlfriend was charged with lying to the feds while trying to enter the US to give birth to their baby (msn.com)

I have forgotten now but there was a word Ukrainians would make you repeat that Russians were unable to pronounce. Almost like a DUI test

Russian-Installed Official's Car Blown up in Ukraine Attack (msn.com)

sort of but with no "I" To butcher a sports phrase. There is no "I" in cannon fodder

I'd go with both. well, I guess that was your second option. Personally, I think Russia is so dysfunctional that there is no "reining things in". They might punish a few as examples but I'd bet the others will just say "stupid idiot went and got caught". Criminals are like that. They always assume the other guy got caught because he was stupid and somehow think they won't. It is an opportunity moment for bribes or theft and also insure there are bodies to be sent to the front so these guys don't go to the front. I'd bet they also think the leadership is just saying what folks want to hear as they KNOW they don't really care, so it is just all noise and keep at it boys!

apparently not much

I think this disagreement has gone completely off the rails as (as someone noted - I think ultradave) it is being posited as a binary decision. The west is not going to back down. What actions it will take is anyone's guess, but backing down completely isn't a viable option. There are a lot of possible things the west could do, economically or militarily. But you can bet Russia's few remaining allies will be heading for the exit doors. This is one pandora's box even the nutball in Pyongyang hasn't dared to open.

I think maybe you misunderstood me. That wasn't about forgiving Russia or expecting anything different in their behavior. It was a question of power dynamics. Ukraine is on the ascendance, Russia on the decline. Russia won't be a threat because they'll be too busy arguing over who's turn it is to use the outhouse and reminiscing over the brief time when they had working washing machines. The west is going to have to figure out how to help them get rid of all those nukes just like we did previously. They won't be able to do it themselves just like the last time we pitched in to clean up their nuke mess. They already produce crap weapons and the industrial base for that is shrinking. What is it you expect Russia to be able to do to Ukraine? Attack you with pitchforks? I don't know how Russia is going to change, but I do know this. The bottom is falling out for them. Yes it is their own fault and they likely deserve it all, however the continued fixation that they will just attack again is premised on what capability? The disparity between the strength of Ukraine versus Russia will only get greater the longer it takes for them to show they deserve a place with the grown-ups again. The last 800 years don't matter anymore. Russia tries anything in 5-10 years I seriously doubt Ukraine is going to need any international assistance to stomp whatever Russia is capable of fielding then.

There is no chance in even 20 years that Russia would be able to really threaten Ukraine. The technology gap would simply be too great. Russian is starting a descent into the dark ages. I think Ukraine's problem is the crime syndicates that will run Russia. You'll be dealing with regular criminals versus a criminal state. Russian industry is collapsing, they have no access to modern electronics, no investment sources. they will have nothing to be able to build a coherent military. It will be even worse than the problems they have already had and we have seen how that has gutted the Russian armed forces. They won't be able to keep their air force flying, won't be able to develop high tech missiles or drone technology. There are only so many decent electronic parts in all the washing machines they are stealing. I think in essence what @The_Capt and others are trying to say is, you are a captive of your own history. Russia is what it is and yes it has a long road to go to change. The dynamic however is now different. Ukraine is the country that has all the power. Russia threw its "best" at Ukraine and the UA trashed it. Russia's main resource is something that has a dying future. The world is moving to greener energy sources. With no access to investment, no real access to technology, a continuing brain drain and an infrastructure it won't have the resources to maintain Russia may end up looking to Ukraine for help as crazy as that sounds. Ukraine needs to look to a future without looking over its shoulder at Russia.

heh see my earlier post referencing Japan? They have a somewhat different view of ww2 than say I do. This is the source of some of their relationship problems with S Korea and other Asian nations who felt the brunt of the IJA. It has been over 75 years and a country we have very good relations with. Honestly, I have no idea what it will take before Russians will be able to critically analyze their own society.

playing chicken with a guy that we are pretty sure already has a crap reliable intel network and may not be playing with a full deck doesn't seem like a good recipe for success.

Putin has succeeded in mobilising a Russian army on the borders... not to fight, but flee (msn.com) Imagine someone on the bridge of the Titanic screaming "steer for the iceberg! Those cowards can flee in the lifeboats!"

looks to be a new recruit for the dead list. Any idea what his rank would have been?

You've seen the logistical problems Russia has already. What do you think is going to happen to that logistical train when you add this many mouths? I see utter disaster for Russia. This has the potential to be the military disaster Steve is waiting for to push Russia over the edge. They shove these guys unsupplied to the front in winter? Yeah that isn't going to end well.

I'll give it a shot though I am not even remotely qualified. First off to address a previously used example - Japan. My spouse is Japanese. I studiously avoid discussion of ww2. The Japanese version is significantly different than what I understand to be Japan's actions in ww2. Japan was demilitarized, but never forced to really teach generation after generation of the atrocities committed. It is still a very xenophobic society, though it does a lot of good humanitarian work around the globe. As previously noted, no one is going to occupy Russia. No one is going to force them to face their history. So how do I see this going down? In 1991 Russia had a brief moment to have its own version of a Prague spring. It chose a different path. They allowed a criminal mob to run their country while they fed off stories of their greatness. Meanwhile the mob ransacked their country. Ukraine has torn the cover off just how decrepit the nation has become, and western sanctions have removed any chance of trying to patchwork it. Russia has in effect inflicted the Morgenthau plan on itself. China is going to be too busy dealing with its own demographic iceberg. Russia is on its own while its industry is collapsing. There is nothing left to rebuild a military, hell they are gonna have a hard enough time just fulfilling their basic needs. Western companies could care less about politics, they are all about risk and reward. Russia blew that equation out in the spring. Western investment won't be seen at scale for quite a long time. The country is huge and will have no airline transportation system to speak of. Maybe they'll have enough industry to keep the rail lines going. Russia has the potential to become a massive humanitarian disaster. Russia won't be Ukraine's problem after this war. Well not as currently viewed. It will likely however evolve into an anarchic criminal mess even worse than now so strict border controls will be necessary to safeguard Ukrainian society. In the US we have this debate now on what has been called critical race theory. Whichever side one stands on the issue, both agree it is an issue of how you teach history. The US is a really young country, if we are still debating our history, it is folly to think we'll somehow reeducate Russians into a different view. The Russians will have to do that themselves and it won't happen in any of our lifetimes. In a sense they are already being demilitarized. As Steve noted, the army is trashed and there is no rebuilding it. They simply don't have the resources, knowledge or societal base to do it. Russia will be the first 3rd world country with nukes. Hopefully we can simply buy them from them and let them sort out their mess without the risk of nuclear stupidity like we have now.

Lest anyone forget, the indigenous people of the Americas are still dealing with the forced migrations and "reservations" they were moved to. As recently as 1976 the US was still doing forced sterilization of native women according to our own General Accounting Office. Government admits forced sterilization of Indian Women - Timeline - Native Voices (nih.gov) In Vietnam we dumped chemical defoliants resulting in a vast unknown quantity of birth defects in the Vietnamese and our own troops. Barbarity is not unique to Russia. Humanity's track record for treating each other humanely is spotty at best.

Haiduk as always, your thoughts are appreciated, and this discussion is a distraction from the thread, but I don't think all of what Kraze has posted can be explained by language issues. As you know there is a huge amount of support reflected in this forum for the fight Ukraine is waging and most of us would like our governments to be doing a lot more. There is also a lot of support for the idea that Russia needs a "denazification" process similar to what post war Germany faced and there is a collective guilt as most Russians seem (at least through the lenses we are confined to) to be supporting a barbaric invasion. There is a line though that most will not cross and a number of his statements have crossed that line. You noted above there are Russians who opposed the war from the start and feel shame for it. Right there you are noting a different reality. Russia has a long difficult road to tread after the cruelties inflicted by this war before it will be able to restore any relationship to the west much less Ukraine. There is no doubt about that. But accepting that in fact there is a road to tread for Russia is a statement for the future that is distinctly different than much of what some of us are reacting to.

yeah I have stopped trying to look for rationale in Russian decision making. Unfortunately, the wheels came off and the trains derailed. Doesn't bode well... or maybe it does and Putin is gonna be asked to check out the window view soon.

Putin seems to be doing his part to remove the threat of further Russian military adventures. “Unprepared as individuals, not part of a team, lack of trust in leaders, no belief in a cause, little chance for survival, no support from citizens—all contribute to failure,” tweeted Mark Hertling, a retired U.S. Army general. “Yeah, 300,000 mobilized. Premeditated murder of his own army by [Russian president Vladimir] Putin.” By Deploying Untrained Draftees, The Russian Army Is Committing ‘Premeditated Murder’ (msn.com)