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FAI

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Posts posted by FAI

  1. I thought this bit was interesting:

    "could result in the expulsion of American forces from [iraq]"

    Kiboshed not because it was a fux0ringly stupid idea, but because the Americans might get shown the door.

    Ultimately a good call but then a broken clock, as they say ...

    It would be in line with their other stupid ideas lately, though in an order of magnitude stupider.

  2. I've heard anecdotes of smoke being fired at German tanks, convincing their crews that they were on fire and provoking them to bail out. I doubt that that was common though or we would have heard more about it.

    Michael

    IIRC, that happened to (one of?) the last King Tiger captured intact. It was abandoned by its panicked crew after an Allied tank hit it with smoke rounds. A combination of green German crew and desperate Allied tankers....

  3. I'd agree with all of this - though the decision not to have fuel reduction burns (as practised by earlier generations of forest management) is based on the ignorance of risk management and a lack of adequate apportioning of accountability in state government organisations. If no-one can make the decision to allow a fuel reduction burn go ahead because the risk of [an accident] is not zero, then they will not take place. Instead, a high temperature, uncontrolled burn will take place - possibly, maybe even probably at the worst possible time.

    A fuel reduction burn is a controlled fire that gets rid of leaf litter and debris that has collected on the ground and in the understory. After twenty years of natural accumulation of this debris, you can end up with more than a metre of loosely stacked fuel sitting on the floor of the forest. After a week of 40+ temperatures, this can ignite and stay lit with a carelessly discarded cigarette butt - the problem then becomes one where, if there is enough fuel and enough wind, the fire gets into the crown of the forest.

    In December 2006 / January 2007 we had some big fires in Victoria - huge acreages burnt. We were lucky, though, that an unusual weather system happened to be around at the time, giving very little wind and relatively low temperatures. This weekend we found out (again) what happens when we rely on luck for the management of our fire prone forests.

    Didn't they suspect foul play in at least some of the fires? Whole towns sealed and declared as crime scenes, investigators looking for arsonists tracks etc.

  4. Sergei - you are a poet.

    Lethaface - I'm reminded of a US Marine commander who took over a unit suffering from poor morale. He introduced a system of flogging one man in ten on a regular basis and told the unit that the floggings would continue until morale improved: I suspect that the latest round of "disproportionate response" in what used to be Palestine is tailored along the same psychological lines. Whether it will have any useful result remains to be seen.

    Of course, that's just saying that Israel tried using terror tactics to make the Palestinian more "pliable".

  5. i somehow had missed this and was a bit surprised when i read it in a Finnish military analysis.

    by 2015 the majority of conscripts in Russia will be Muslim.

    so how many decades does it take for Muslims to creep up the chain of command? in 2050 half of the generalship is Muslim?

    what a wonderful array of tongue-in-cheek hypothetical future wargame scenarios this allows.

    Do you have a link ?

  6. Let's start a thread predicting how long it will be until the next attack on US soil occurs - our President has already taken the first steps in letting that happen.

    IF, God forbids, there is an attack on the US that originated from an outside element, you'd do well to remember the mess the previous sorry excuse of a president left. He sure made more enemies faster that he could kill them.

  7. Does anyone else think its more than coincidental that Israel pushes for a ceasefire and pull out of Gaza just as Bush steps out of office and Obama becomes president?

    It almost seems like the whole military adventure was timed to take advantage of the transition. Which is one of the reasons why I question the whole idea that this was done merely done to defend Israel from rocket attacks by Hamas.

    Yeah, the whole madness and slaughter, above everything else, was just because they could. Because of a stupid "window of opportunity" before the inauguration a president, no less.

  8. I would just like to add a point about the apparent unquestioning and blind support of the US state for Israel in these situations. One phone call from the US telling Israel to stop the bombing and it would stop. And yet when the UN tried to get a vote calling for a ceasefire the US abstained. Being a friend and ally to a country shouldn't mean just rubber-stamping everything they do.

    P.S. - Everyone in the Arab world knows this also, which only adds to the low-esteem in which the US is held by Arabs and Muslims in general. From a purely self-interest point of view, this is not good for US national security.

    Not just in the Arab world, you bet.

  9. Then again, not using the "short victorious war" option when the voters want something to be done would just mean losing the elections in February. In which case a new, more right-leaning government would attack perhaps with even greater damage. So Olmert's hand is forced both by Hamas and his own people.

    Ah, the joys of representative democracy.

    "The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions."

    Robert Lynd.

  10. Steve, if you want to make this argument you need to present evidence that the aim of Israel's military ops is to induce terror in the local population, rather than this being an inadvertent byproduct of pursueing other specific goals. Otherwise, this is like saying that Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor failed because the local population didn't immediately capitulate and swear lifelong fealty to the Emperor, and that because of that Japan should never have attacked in the first place (i.e. you are right for the wrong reasons).

    Didn't Israel tried that in Lebanon too? Bombing civilians/ wrecking civilian infrastructures hoping that somehow the populace would start ousting Hezbollah?

  11. http://forums.opendemocracy.net/node/47269

    Palestinians are suffering because of Hamas, not because of Israel. People on the West Bank are far better off than the people in Gaza.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_palestinians_west_bank_view;_ylt=AiCBXESsA8JGiJhI66olgx0LewgF

    Now why are they living safe, good lives? Because they're not currently attacking Israel.

    Very reminiscent of a pre 20th century colonialism. There's always a group of the locals being shown to have "better lives" to discourage resistance. "Resistance makes your lives miserable, collaboration gives you rice/bread/whatever staple food".

    Exactly why people from countries with memories of brutal foreign occupation sympatize more with the Gazans.

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