dan/california

The best sentence Upton Sinclair ever wrote was " It is impossible to get a man to understand some thing when his salary depends on not understanding it". The Russian addendum would include something about keeping your freedom and all of your body parts. The question is will this willful misunderstanding and mis-knowing survive a collapse of the southern front. The_Capt has stated several times that war is a collision of certainties. What remains to be seen is what will the Russian military do when it really is forced to understand that its certainties are wrong and suicidal.

Mistakes happen in a war, they happen even more often in a war being fought by people who were civilians a very few months ago. There are any number of similar incidents in the U.S. march from Normandy to Berlin. For instance it very nearly happened in this ugly little fight https://www.thenmusa.org/articles/the-442d-regimental-combat-team/ The only reason it didn't was that the Nisei were willing to do things pretty much everybody else thought were suicidal.

The Russian system has calcified almost to the point of complete disfunction, it can just barely respond to stimulus. When it does respond it is almost always by doing a little more, or a little less of what it was already doing. Its very last hint of a new idea was to invade to Ukraine as the crowing achievement of the Czar's reign. Since that failed in nineteen separate ways all it has managed to do is twitch reflexively. It just keeps fighting the catastrophic fire it has started by shoveling bodies on to it slightly faster, or lately slightly slower, than the fire can consume them. When someone has so much as an idea about how to shovel bodies more efficiently, they go out a fifth floor window as threat to the glorious Czar or his reputation. This isn't a dinosaur, walnut brain sized level of reflexive response, it is a JELLYFISH level of reflexive response. I have not the slightest idea how to negotiate with a jellyfish. The SBU needs to get to General Popov and make him an offer, his command is literally pleading with them to come save them. This is an insult that neither the Czar or his ministers will swallow.

I think this post, as well as Steves earlier comment about pushing basing back ever further, at least strongly hint at what is happening. Russia has suffered steady losses in a not very big fleet of Ka-52s the whole war, approximately half of the hundred odd they started the war with have been eliminated. Now ever increasing Ukrainian long range strike capability has pushed the remaining ones to bases in Southern Crimea, or maybe even some bit of Russia just to the other side of the Kerch bridge. So an ever smaller number of helicopters are are having fly an ever larger number miles/kilometers to attempt to fulfill their assigned missions. The inevitable result is stacking maintenance loses on top of combat losses as the remaining airframes and pilots just wear out. it is the most virtuous of circles as far as Ukraine is concerned.

But it all comes down to what is the other choice? Letting the current lines freeze into a much less stable DMZ, while Russia rearms frantically? Should they take two or three times their already high casualties to literally dig the Russians out with their bare hands? All of the discussion of DPICM acts like there is some sort of immaculate option that doesn't involve the Russians squatting on 20% of Ukraine forever like a literal orcish horde. Ukraines choices are shoot every round of DPICM they can get their hands on, convince the U.S. Air Force to join this war, or lose. I m still waiting for somebody to explain another option. I am in no way underestimating the issue of the eventual clean up, but it really is a matter of degree instead of some sort entirely new issue. The Russians have fired every round of Soviet DPICM they had in inventory with dud rates that beggar the imagination. They have mined thousands of square miles , literally. Ukraine is simply going to have to get infinitely better at de-mining than anyone has ever been before. This would be true if Ukraine never fired one round of DPICM themselves. The people who wrote the times article are still stuck in the mental framework of twenty years of counter insurgency, where the most dangerous thing on the battlefield was our own mistakes. The War In Ukraine simply couldn't be more different.

The overall amount of video we are getting from this war is nuts. The number of time we get multiple views of the same action, complete with GPS coordinates, and in many cases contemporaneous accounts from the participants is what ever is after off the charts. Also, this batch of Russians drew the shortest of short straws.

Of course the NYT has picked this moment to expound endlessly on the dangers of cluster munitions. They have two interrelated and deeply held misconceptions. The first is that Russia hasn't already mined the front lines on an unimaginable scale. The second is that Ukraine had some mythical better choice that didn't involve the U.S. Air Force joining this war.

AFU says they have breached the worst of it. Unless they are totally blowing smoke I expect it to be an interesting week.

There is suddenly a bunch of Baryaktar videos floating around the web. Is this because Russian air defenses are stretched so thin they can operate more freely? Or the AFU just decided to put some up?

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/Cwt5Z_7PbBa Testing some sort new RWS, appears to be a fifty cal or maybe a lower velocity 30mm gun with a sniper function. Firing single rounds and adjusting optics. More likely in U.S. or Australia than Ukraine, at least this week. Found the website, it is mostly an anti-drone system. Although it looks like it could make anything less than a heavy IFV unhappy if the need arose. System coming to Ukraine very soon it seems. Company website https://eos-aus.com/

I suspect Popov wishes he had joined Prig's parade when he had the chance. This going public seems like a blatant attempt to get him a one time flying lesson from the nearest window. Presumably the new guy in his old job is less than pleased with the situation. Hopefully this will lead to the whole 58th CAA falling apart in another round of purges.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1698060278145945947.html Russian government has cut off all payments to wounded and dead wagnerites. Oddly enough they are not very happy. I think there is very real risk for Putin here having thousands of these walking around with a grudge. Thread reader app link included above.

Is this the one that took a shot at Ukraines lodgement on the left bank of the Dnipro a day or two ago? I had a feeling it become a very high priority target. Honestly the risk of getting barbecued driving one of these is so high I wonder how they get people to do it. I will also note they make them drive around by themselves, they are so dangerous to even be near.

My vote, if they catch him, is to deport him to Ukraine. Ukraine can deport him to Russia with a trebuchet, or perhaps pack him into naval drone.

Rereading this outstanding history of Normandy again. The thing that stands out is the enormous effect of absolute air supremacy. The Germans were bombed, bombed again, and then bombed with real intent. For all of the amazing effects of PGMs and drones it is not clear to me that they bring the same weight to bear, at least i the quantities available to the Ukrainians. The Luftwaffe of course was essentially a non factor in France. The anonymous sources whinging about Ukrainian tactics are asking them to do something we didn't attempt even in 1944. Yes on occasion we bombed our on side, but we bombed the Germans a GREAT deal more. Fair warning: The entire document amounts to a long full length book.

Russia is having to laterally redeploy another major unit from Luhansk to the south. Their replacements in Luhansk are apparently raw meat for the grinder. Read the whole thing today.

Mick Ryan about the war. Ukraine needs more, Ukraine needs it faster, and letting the Russian's get anything out of this will cost us more in the end. He appears to either be a regular reader of the board, or his sources agree with ours in regards to the tactical/operational details. He does make a point that Western decision making has never adapted to the new reality. Even when we do that right thing we are too bleeping slow. That is costing Ukraine dearly now, and it will cost the rest of us even more if China actually goes for Taiwan, or similar.

It is entirely possible that a NATO defence contractor was encouraged to help Ukraine get a cruise missile program over the hump. It gives Ukraine a "domestic" long range strike option that takes a lot of pressure off of the politics of things blowing up all over European Russia.

Perhaps the clearest case ever of just NOT learning. To park ~ten fuel trucks to together like at that within 200 km of the front line is just willful stupidity, or actively working for the other side. They have only been a max priority target since the second ay of the war.

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/Cwpz_Ofqzhv Actual video of the drone attack on the Pskov airbase.

I think it will take another ten days to find out. I am leaning the same way as you are.

I suspect The Pickle will be finally, Edit: and finely, ground relish soon, and very few people on the entire planet deserve it more. That said, the man isn't a coward.

I agree it isn't bocage level awful, it is the mines that have slowed Ukraine to a crawl. If Normandy had been mined the way Southern Ukraine is mined the Allies would have taken much longer to break out, if ever. And drones cut both ways for offense and defense. But Ukrainian tree lines just don't have the same absolute impassibility. Edit: The question is has Ukraine made it through the worst of the mines

This was discussed an infinity of pages ago, somebody actually had access to the sensors and computing power to get it done. Edit: Not super precise yet.